TECHNOMIC’S TAKE 2016 Trends · Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fansBy the numbers...

© 2015 Technomic Inc. 1

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The Sriracha effect

Elevating peasant fare

Trash to treasure

Burned

Bubbly

Negative on GMOs

Modernizing the supply chain

Fast food refresh

Year of the worker

The delivery revolution

TECHNOMIC’S TAKE

2016 Trends

© 2015 Technomic Inc.


2016 TREND

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1. The Sriracha effect


Having learned that Sriracha sauce can add instant ethnic cachet to something as straightforward as a sandwich, chefs are scouting the world for other assertive flavorings.


Gochujang: the latest from Korea


Spicy, salty paste is being used in both Korean and non-Korean recipes


North African flavors may be next

4 © 2015 Technomic Inc.

Harissa Sumac Dukka


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans By the numbers


Number of mentions on U.S. menus, Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2010 * vs. Q3 2013 (no mentions in 2010) Source: Technomic MenuMonitor

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Menu mentions compared to 5 years ago:

+421%

+667%

+55%

+200%

+400% +400%

Sriracha

Ghost pepper

Harissa

Gochujang *

Sambal

Sumac


2016 TREND

2. Elevating peasant fare


Meatballs and sausages are proliferating, as are multi-ethnic dumplings, from pierogi to bao buns. Even the staff of life gets the royal treatment, from haute toast to signature cheesy bread.

© 2015 Technomic Inc. © 2015 Technomic Inc. 7

Meatballs

© 2015 Technomic Inc. 8 © 2015 Technomic Inc. 8

Sausages

Image Source: www.rosamundesausagegrill.com/




Number of mentions on U.S. menus, Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2010 Source: Technomic MenuMonitor

9

+67% Bao buns

+40% Meatballs

+14% Sausages


2016 TREND

3. Trash to treasure

10 © 2015 Technomic Inc.


Rethinking ‘trash’ fish


Image Source: www.facebook.com/ChefsCollaborative


‘Head to tail’ beyond center of the plate


Shake Shack’s WastEd Juice Pulp Cheeseburger is made entirely from leftovers

Image Source: www.shakeshack.com



Pre-consumer kitchen waste constitutes an estimated 4%‒10% of purchased food

50% of all food is

wasted worldwide

37% of consumers say they would pay more for

seafood described as ‘sustainable’


Source: British Institution of Mechanical Engineers, endfoodwastenow.org, 2015 Technomic Seafood & Vegetarian Consumer Trend Report


2016 TREND

4. Burned



Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Drinking smokiness


Image Source: www.5napkinburger.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Charred vegetables

At Chicago’s Parlor Pizza Bar, patrons can customize their Bloody Mary at a self-service bar with items like: ˃ brown sugar-candied bacon ˃ beef jerky ˃ pepperoncini






Number of mentions on U.S. menus, Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2010 Source: Technomic MenuMonitor

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+61% Burn/burned/burnt

+19% Smoked

+4% Charred


2016 TREND

5. Bubbly


Effervescence make light work of the trendiest beverages.


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans ‘Hard’ soda: adults only



Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Beyond alcohol, fizz in novel forms




Adult beverage menu mentions vs. 5 years ago:*

Champagne/sparkling wine category volume rose 4.8% in 2014, vs. 1.0% growth for wine overall


*Number of mentions on U.S. menus, Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2010 Source: 2015 Technomic Wine TAB, Technomic MenuMonitor

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+421%

Prosecco

+24% Soda

+17% Cava

+9% Bubbly


2016 TREND

6. Negative on GMOs



2016 TREND A chance for competitive differentiation


Image Source: Bareburger.com

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Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans ‘GMO-free’ label can be hard to verify


Image Source: www. chipotle.com/gmo



70% of consumers say they would be more

likely to purchase foods or beverages described as GMO-free

34% would be willing to pay more for

GMO-free menu items

29% believe GMO-free items are tastier


Source: Technomic Healthy Eating Consumer Trend Report, 2014

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2016 TREND


7. Modernizing the supply chain

Climate destabilization, mutating pathogens and rising transportation costs, among other challenges, will lead to increasingly frequent stresses on the food supply chain. Diner demand for “fresh” and “local” fare also challenges a distribution system based on consolidation, centralization, large drop sizes and long shelf life.


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Climate change is heating up


2015 is shaping up to be the hottest year on record, according to climate experts


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Pathogens can strike at any time

This year’s surprise: Due to an outbreak of bird flu virus, egg prices have risen sharply (CPI up 35% in a year).



Transportation issues come to the fore



Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Distributors are juggling many challenges

Our company has initiatives related to . . .


Source: Technomic Distributor Intelligence Service, June 2015

89% 78% 78% 78%

Localsourcing

Animalwelfare/humane

treatment

Product/ingredient

safety

Traceability

Top 4

44%

33%

22%

Package materials/material efficiency

Fair trade/ethicalsourcing

Use of antibiotics/growth hormones

[ Other initiatives ]



Technomic projects 2016‒2025 annual growth for:


Source: Technomic Food industry Transformation whitepaper, 2015

+20% Online distributors

+13.5% Online & other retailers’ delivery, home meal kits, farmers markets, CSAs

+12% Fresh-format retailers


2016 TREND

8. Fast food refresh


Consumers gravitate to “better” fast food, transforming and diversifying the industry.

Image Source: www.honeygrow.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Daypart expansion can be key

© Technomic Inc. © 2015 Technomic Inc. 33

Image Source: www.starbucks.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Alcohol is another hot QSR trend


Image Source: www.tacobell.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans The rise of ‘QSR Plus’


Image Source: www.culvers.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Leading QSR-Plus chains growing fast

These leading QSR-Plus chains collectively grew sales 9.2% in 2014, vs. 3.8% for the restaurant industry as a whole.


Source: Technomic Top 500 Report, 2015


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Outpacing overall fast-casual growth ...

Build-your-own formats: Among Top 500 chains, fast casuals with visible prep grew sales 23% in 2014 vs. 13% for fast casuals in general


Source: Technomic Top 500 Report, Technomic projections

Emerging fast-casual menu clusters: Projected 5-year growth:

+33% Mediterranean

+30% Healthy

+23% Pizza

+21% Barbecue

+17% Salad


2016 TREND

9. Year of the worker



Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Operators cope with labor challenges



Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Investment in training will be essential




83% of consumers support minimum wage

increases

84% of foodservice operators say a $15 minimum

wage would hurt business

75% of restaurant hourly and management

terminations in 2014 were voluntary

17% of restaurant operators think recruitment

and retention is their top challenge, up from 7%


Source: 2014 Technomic consumer survey, 2014 Technomic operator survey, TDN2K, National Restaurant Association; 2014 vs. 2012


Proliferating order-and-pay apps and third-party online ordering and delivery services make “dining in” easier than ever and, in some cases, “dining out” a thing of the past. Transformational companies like Uber and Amazon are muscling into the market.

2016 TREND

10. The delivery revolution


Image Source: www.mcdonalds.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans On-demand delivery


Image Source: www.postmates.com

© 2015 Technomic Inc. © Technomic Inc.

Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Transformational companies muscle in


Image Source: www.ubereats.com

© 2015 Technomic Inc. © Technomic Inc.

Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans From commissaries, not restaurants


Image Source: www.munchery.com


Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fans Millennials are most likely to choose delivery,

signaling that demand will increase

What percent of the food you order at restaurants is for dine-in, takeout and delivery?

44%

44%

46%

52%

40%

36%

39%

37%

16%

19%

15%

11%

Gen Z

Millennials

Gen X

Boomers

Dine in Takeout Delivery


Source: Technomic Generations Consumer Trend Report, 2014


Conclusion 2016 TREND

Food, beverage and operational trends will play out in different sectors in different ways.

BUT

Foodservice operators and suppliers of all types should be aware of these and adapt them as a springboard to create competitive differentiation.

Conclusion & implications


© 2015 Technomic Inc. 312-876-0004 | [email protected] | technomic.com

Questions?

Rita Negrete Senior Editor [email protected] 312-506-3845

TECHNOMIC’S TAKE 2016 Trends · Applebee’s turns over its Instagram to fansBy the numbers...

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