Technology largely unseen - but on the radar
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Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
ca-global.org
Largely Unseen... ...but on the radar !
cochrane.org.uk
Tuesday, 7 February 12
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Context, context! My kingdom for Context!
Richard The Third Act 5, scene 4, 7–10
With apologies to William Shakespear
Tuesday, 7 February 12
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Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...
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Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..
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We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and p e o p l e ) f r i e n d l y alternatives...
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Underu sed v i deo conference is a sign of the lack of network b a n d w i d t h a n d connectivity...
...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !
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Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too...
...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need...
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But there is widespread f r u s t r a t i o n a t t h e extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ...
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It undermines and p r e v e n t s t h e widespread use of the latest technologies...
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< 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufficient speed to be useable...
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I collected these test results over the past year as I t r a v e l l e d t h e planet...
But IT is
not an asy
mmetric
world !!
Global average
Global average
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Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress...
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Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...
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I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon....
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It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution
BioNano
IT + AI
This is where all the real action is going to be
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Moving on from bulk materials and the d e s t r u c t i o n o f resources...
. . . 3 D p r i n t i n g i s g o i n g mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office
and home
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It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize complex s t ruc tures , and
integrated components...
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OPEN
Software
Networks
Access
Hardware
Design
Development
Distribution
Innovation
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Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...
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Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...
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Back to the plot !
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Nothing is static for long: technology, networks and people...
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Everything now tends toward the complex, is inter-connected, making causality difficult to establish - and is mostly impossible...
...what drives what is no longer simple or clear
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Technological change is a lways a one way process...
...there is never any going b a c k w i t h o u t h u ge penalties !
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Unequals
Worlds apart - a completely new paradigm!
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Mobile technology has enabled new ways of wo r k i n g , p l ay a n d industries...
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So, what happens next ?
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Social media leads to social selling...
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GPS + Loca
tion Based Serv
ices sees
virtual fr
iends beco
me ‘really
close’..
.
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Your mobile device will know more and more about you day by day !
Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++
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Incramentalism ?
This really isn’t the next step - it really isn’t !!
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The wider problem - cards galore!
IDPass
DebitCreditGuidesLoyaltyMedical
LicencesInsurancesInstitutions
Quick NotesMemberships
++++++++++
How many more can you cope with?Just manage my life for me!
iCards
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If cards go from swipe to contactless...and that is all, then there will be another...
...only this time it will really hurt!
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Tagging for life
Chunky technology
PrettyJewelry
Limited information
Cradleto Grave
Data
Chips and tags on and in everythingincluding goods, animals & people
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Everything & everyone will be connected and communicating...
. . . a n d i n c r e a s i n g l y mobile...
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MetaData will be the f u t u r e f o c u s o f business, care and government ...
...and it is where the £, $, € will migrate !
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BUT a growing comp lex i t y w i l l d e m a n d m o r e speed and more connectivity...
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The technologies of the past can ’t cut the mustard...they really can’t...
...the future demands s ome t h i n g ra d i c a l l y different...a new approach that can deliver...
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And we won’t find the solution in the museum...
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The biggest challenges facing any industry ?
• History
• Old mindsets
• Old models
• Existing operations
• Vested interests
• Change
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It is time to be thinking different...
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A existence theorem... a company with a vision and a plan...
. . .FTTH @ an initial 1Gbit/s both ways open to a l l u s e r s a n d a l l networks...
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FTTH + 3G + WiFiopen access in the customers box...
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Mountain View& GoogleNet
… a different model and new threat to the Mobile Industry???
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What would all this mean for the UK ?
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22M of these...
55k of these...
Or
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Big bandwidthover 10m
Thin bandwidthover 1 - 10km
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FM
TV Optical
Mobile
WiFi
We have devices & processing power to do & access more than ever before
Opp
ortu
nity
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ks
Bns
Sensors RFID
Number Tx of devicesMW
mW
Distance & Power
Mobiles3/4/5G
Tns
Ms
WiFi/Max100ks
100% The need for regulation and control ~ 0%
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The spectrum myth… …it is in short supply!
Actually
it is m
ostly unused
!
City of Chicago study <17% of commercial spectrum used
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We now have the technology to deliver an infinity of wireless bandwidth to almost any location...all the old limiters have gone!
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FreeViewSatTVDVD
HiFi
Entertainment & IT connected & configured using 60GHz.
Broadband Server + back up store+ CD & DVD + movie store+ Integral 60GHz + WiFi+ BlueTooth + 3 + 4G
WiFi
mobile2.5/3G
~60GHz
FTTH
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PC
mobile
Hub/Switch
Server
Router
Old wires and boxes view
New access cloud perception
A cloud of connectivity
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Mobile migration
“Hardwear”
It hurts when I sit down!
Chunky technology
PrettyJewelry
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Mobile migration...
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Gen Y = most connected, networked, participative and technically engaged generation ever…
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Or as the older generation might see them...
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- Any platform
- Any device
- Any OS
- Any Application
- An entirely different expectation! - Socially aware and connected
- Unwilling to tow the IT Dept line
- Provide and own their own IT and apps
>20 years of living on line
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And IT Dept’s will not be able to do this any more…
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Creativity is now at the edge, out of control, open, & distributed...
...and it is connectivity and bandwidth hungry
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Thank You
ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Tuesday, 7 February 12