TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRam INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe

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TechnologyHorizonsProgram

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August2011|SR-1390B

CONTRIBUTORS:

Author: Anthony Townsend, Lyn Jeffery, Devin Fidler, Mathias Crawford

Editor: Lisa Mumbach, Nicole Tindall

Art Direction and Design: Robin Bogott, Karin Lubeck, Jody Radzik

SR-1390B©2011InstitutefortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Allbrandsandtrademarksremainthepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Reproductionisprohibitedwithoutwrittenconsent.

about the …

TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRamTheTechnologyHorizonsProgramcombinesadeepunderstandingoftechnologyandsocietalforcestoidentifyandevaluatediscontinuitiesandinnovationsinthenextthreetotenyears.Ourapproachtotechnologyforecastingisunique—weputpeopleatthecenterofourforecasts.Understandinghumansasconsumers,workers,householders,andcommunitymembersallowsIFTFtohelpcompanieslookbeyondtechnicalfeasibilitytoidentifythevalueinnewtechnologies,forecastadoptionanddiffusionpatterns,anddiscovernewmarketopportunitiesandthreats.

INSTITUTe fOR The fUTUReTheInstitutefortheFutureisanindependent,nonprofitstrategicresearchgroupwithmorethan40yearsofforecastingexperience.Thecoreofourworkisidentifyingemergingtrendsanddiscontinuitiesthatwilltransformglobalsocietyandtheglobalmarketplace.Weprovideourmemberswithinsightsintobusinessstrategy,designprocess,innovation,andsocialdilemmas.Ourresearchspansabroadterritoryofdeeplytransformativetrends,fromhealthandhealthcaretotechnology,theworkplace,andhumanidentity.TheInstitutefortheFutureislocatedinPaloAlto,California.

INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe

CONTeNTS

INTRODUCTION 1

1. THEEMERGINGWORLDOFOPENFABRICATION 3

Acceleratingtheflowofthings 3

Processes:thefundamentalsof3Dprinting 4

Limits:atomsaredifferentfrombits 5

Fromproductionlinetomanufacturingwebtofabricationcloud 5

Perils:aworldof“crapjects” 7

Opportunities:aworldoftotems 7

Manufacturing’sbigbang 8

2. THEFOUNDATIONSOFOPENFABRICATION 9

Softwarefrontiers 10

Materialadvances 12

3. OPENFABRICATIONCOMMUNITIES 15

Openfabcommunity1:theMakerBotthingiverse 15

Openfabcommunity2:China’sshanzhai 17

4. FORECASTSFOROPENFABRICATION 23

Democratizingindustrialdesign 23

Thelongnowofmaterials 24

Extremecustomization 25

Seeit,captureit,makeit 25

Newblue-collarskills 26

Communityworkshops,notpersonaldesktops 27

10to10,000:thesweetspotfor3Dprinting 27

Multi-purpose,safermaterials 28

4

MakerculturemeetstheWeb 28

Globalcrowdsourcedmicromanufacturing 28

Shanzhaidesigngrowsup 29

Tissueprinting 29

Wildcard:self-replication 30

5.TAKEAWAYS 31

Keyobstacles 31

Keyopportunities 32

CONTeNTS (cont . )

1INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe

INTROdUCTION

INTROdUCTION

Whentrackingtechnologicalinnovation,payattentionnotsomuchto

whatisnewastowhatisreadytotakeoff,asIFTFDistinguishedFellow

BobJohansenlikestosay.Bythatmeasure,we’reofficiallyenteringthe

decadewhen3Dprinting—thinkprintingobjects—fulfills thepromise

thatmakers, programmers, andgeeks havebeen forecasting for the

last20years.3Dprintingisslowlybutsurelymovingbeyondtherealm

ofhigh-enddesignandfactoryshops,andenteringtheconsciousness

of technology lead-users—those in cities around the world who are

most likely toadoptnew tools, start newbusinesses, andchampion

newmovements.

Threeyearsago,IFTFpublishedaforecastonThe Future of Making,whichlookedatthefutureoftheDIYmovement.Wehighlightedthedemocratizationofaccesstonewtoolsandopen-sourceeverything(alongwitheco-motivationandaquestforauthenticity)askeydriversofthefutureofmaking.Today,inThe Future of Open Fabrication,wetakeadeeperdiveintothetools,processes,andmanufacturinglandscapesthataretransforminghowwereshapeourmaterialworld.Inthecomingdecade,we’llmanipulatetheatomsofstuff—plastic,metal,concrete,glass,evenbiologicalmatter—usingmanyofthesametools,businessmodels,andinspirationsasthelastdecadeappliedtobitsofinformation.Someofuswilldoitourselves,whilemillionsmorewilloutsourceittoalocalshoporafactoryinChina.Butnomatterwhereithappens,newmanufacturingtoolsinthehandsofawidervarietyofpeoplewillchallengethebasicassumptionsofindustrialproduction,retail,andconsumption.Welcometothefutureofopenfabrication.

Startwithourintroductiontotheemergingworldofopenfabricationforalookatthebigshiftsunderwayinmanufacturing.DipintoFoundations,wherewelayoutthebuildingblocksofopenfabrication,frommesh-mergingsoftwareand3Dscanningtobiologicalfeedstocksandprintableelectronics.OpenFabricationCommunitiestakesyouintotheworldoftheMakerBot,thefirstaffordable3Dprinteraimedatthenonindustrialmarket,andthenoutagaintoChina’sshanzhaimanufacturers,whosesmall-batchopennetworksgiveuscluesaboutwhatthefutureof3Dprintingmightlooklike.Orgostraighttoourforecaststoseewhatthenextdecadecouldhold—andwhatitmightmeanforyouandyourorganization.


1 The emeRgINg wORld Of OPeN faBRICaTION

accelerating the flow of things

Tenyearsago,theInternetwasstillmostlyamediumfortextandimages.Whileinteractivitywasbecomingmorecommonplace,audioandvideocontentwerejustbeginningtotrickle.Yettoday,richmultimediacontentdominatesthecommerceandinfrastructureoftheWeb.Byoneestimate,Netflixstreamingvideoaloneconsumes20%ofU.S.Internetbandwidthduringprimetimeeveningviewinghours.

Today,it’sequallyhardtoimaginetheWebasafuturemediumforsharingnotjustdigitalmedia,butalsodigitalthings.Digitalthingsaredatapackagesthatdescribetheshape,materialcomposition,andfabricationofobjects.Industrialmanufacturershaveworkedthiswayfordecades,usingcomputer-aideddesign(CAD)totransmitnewideasfromdrawingboardtofactory.Buttoday,onlinerepositoriessuchasThingiverse—wherepeopleopenlyshareandinviteotherstobuildontheirdesigns—areunlockingtheinnovativepotentialofagrassrootscommunityoftinkerersanddesignerstocreateandsharedigitalplansforrealobjects.

ThesecommunalrepositoriescoupledwithcheapCADsoftwareandanewbreedofdesktop3Dprinters—whichcan“print,”orlayerup,designsinavarietyofindustrialmaterials—arebringingdownthebarrierstoacceleratingtheflowofthingsontheInternet.Wecallthisnewecosystemofopen-sourcetoolsfordesigning,sharing,andproducingphysicalartifactsopenfabrication.

Thekeyprinciplesofopenfabricationaresimple:

• Stayflexible—Theresourcesforopenfabrication(theprinters,software,andmaterials)arestillrudimentaryandrough,butthecalltoarmsistoexploretheflexibilityofcheapandaccessibledesktopmanufacturing.

• LeverageWebscale—ThemakermovementstartedingaragesandworkshopsbutsoonformedcommunitiesontheWeb;nowopenfabricationissystematicallyleveragingtheWeb’sscalethroughthecreationofstandardsandknowledgerepositoriessuchasThingiverse.

• Beopen—Thissimpledictumisofteninshortsupplyintheworldofdesignandindustrialmanufacturing.Openfabricatorsshareintellectualpropertyintheformofobjectdesigns,code,andprocessinnovations,acceleratingthelearningofall.

1 | The emeRgINg wORld Of OPeN faBRICaTION

Thingiverseisanonlinecommunityofdesignersofprintableobjects.

Source:thingiverse.com

4

Processes: the fundamentals of 3d printing

Currentadditivefabricationprocesses—or3Dprinting,asitiswidelyknown—relyononeofseverallayeringapproaches.

Theoldestofthese,stereolithography,involvesusinglaserlighttosolidifylayersofaphoto-sensitiveliquidpolymer.Oncethelayersofpolymerhavehardened,theplatformisraisedoutoftheremainingliquidtorevealthecompletedstructure.Bymakingautomatedfabricationofwholeobjectspossible,thisgroundbreakingapproachkickedoffthe3Dprintingrevolutioninthemid-1980s.

Successiveapproacheshavesimilarlyinvolvedbuildinguplayersofmaterial.Sintering,forexample,useslaserstoactuallymeltlayersofmetal,glass,orplasticintoplace.

Aparallelsuiteoftechnologiesistakingshapethatmaymovemoreeasilyintowidespreadhomeuse.Fuseddepositionmodeling,forexample,actuallysquirtspreciselayersofmeltedplastic,sugar,orevenicetobuildafreestandingstructure.Anotherprocessusesabinderorgluetofuselayersofmodelingpowder.

While3Dprintingtechnologiescontinuetospread,atpresent,actualhigh-qualityprintersareveryexpensiveandavailabletoonlyasmallcollectionoforganizations.However,anumberofcommercial“printcenters”haveemergedtoaddressthisgap.Forexample,PonokoandShapewaysallowuserstosenddigitalmodelsforprinting.Themodelsareprintedandthenshippedtotheuser.

Beyondthis,wildcardsinthisspaceincludemarginalapplicationstakingshapeforuseinconstruction,electroniccircuitry,andstemcellapplications.Oneofthesemayultimatelyturnouttobethetrue“killerapp”foradditivefabrication.

Overall,however,whilethepotentialforadditivefabricationisnowbecomingclear,newtechniqueswillneedtobeintroducedforthefieldtotrulymature.Eachoftheexistingapproacheswillexperiencemarginaltechnicaladvancesoverthenextseveralyears.Buttheyalsoeachhavefundamentallimitationsthatinhibittheeasyexpansionof3Dprintingintothecreationofcomplexformsinvolvingadiversearrayofmaterialsandproperties—thatis,intomainstreamproductionoffinalproducts.

Astheyexisttoday,most3Dprintingtechnologiesmightmorereadilybeclassifiedassophisticatedsculptingtechniquesthanasmaturemanufacturingtechnologies.However,thiswillbegintochangeoverthecomingdecade.

Stereolithographycreatessolidprintobjectsinavatofliquidphotopolymer.

Source:Flickruserphilrenato

Lasersinteringmeltslayersoffinemetalfilingsintoasolidobject.

Source:renishaw.com

Fuseddepositionmodelingprintsbydepositinglayersofmaterial.

Source:shapeways.com



limits: atoms are different from bits

Evenasabravecadreofopenfabberspioneersanewwayofmakingandsharingthings,significanthurdlescouldslowthespreadof3Dprintingandlimititsrangeofapplications.Evenamongleadinnovators,deepskepticismexistsaboutthefuturerateofprogressinopenfabrication.Asoneparticipantaskedinourexpertworkshop,“IamstillprintingthesamestuffIprintedtenyearsagoingradschool.WillIstillbeprintingthesamethingtenyearsfromnow?”

OpenfabricationseekstoleveragethescalabilityoftheWeb.Thenetworkeffectsofsharingknowledgeareacceleratinggrassrootsinnovation,similartowhatwesawwithopen-sourcesoftwareinthepastdecade.Butatomsaredifferentfrombits,andopenfabbingcan’tbeexpectedtoplayoutlikeopen-sourcesoftware,foracoupleofreasons.

Foronething,theITrevolutionalsobenefitedfromrapidunderlyingadvancesin“feedstocks”suchasbroadband,processingpower,andstorage.It’snotclearthoseunderlyingacceleratorswillexistinthemessyworldofstuffinwhichopenfabricatorsreside,wherephysicsandgeographykeepcomingbacktocreatecomplexlogisticalproblems.Asoneexpertworkshopparticipantremarked:“ThebeautyoftheWeb(andWebtools,likeopen-sourcesoftware)isthatyoucangetto50millionpeopleinakeystroke.Physicalproductsrequireadistributionchannel.”

Foranotherthing,manufacturingisalreadyahighlyrefinedpractice.Whilemanyopportunitiesfordisruptionexist,3Dprintingshowsnosignofdisplacingthehighlytailoredprocessesandtoolsformassproductionofstandardizedobjects,suchasinjection-moldedplastics.Thesemethodshavebeenhonedoverdecadesanddeliverastonishinglycheap,high-qualityresults.Inalmosteverylarge-runcase,itwillbecheapertotoolanobjectthanto3Dprintit.Openfabricationwillopenmanydoors,butitsdisruptivepotentialhassomeclearlimits.

from production line to manufacturing web to fabrication cloud

Overthecourseofthe20thcentury,theassemblylinemodelevolvedwithinachanginglandscapeofmoreflexiblemachineryandcomplexsupplychainsanddistributionnetworks.Whatwehavetodaylooksmorelikeaninterconnectedmanufacturingwebthanisolatedproduction-linefactories.

Anotherwayofthinkingabouttheseshiftsisintermsofhowtheytransformrawmaterialsintofinishedproducts.Themovingassemblyline,firstintroducedatFord’sHighlandPark,Michiganplantin1913,employedawidevarietyofmaterialandresourceinputsandavastnumberofmanufacturingprocessestosteadilyproduceastrictlylimitedsetofobjectsinmassivenumbers.Today’smanufacturingweb,incontrast,isfarmoreflexible,diversified,andagile.Plantsandmachinescanquicklyberetooledandrevvedupordownto“burst-produce”farsmallerrunsofamuchlargersetofproducts.

Eveniftheworstrisksareunrealized,3Dprintingcouldbeheldbackbyinherentlimitsto

scalability.

Source:IFTFOpenFabExpertWorkshop

6

3Dprintingpresentsyetathirdmodel,afabricationcloudthattakesaverylimitednumberofinputmaterialsandprocessesbutcanflexiblymanipulatethemtocost-effectivelyproduceanalmostinfinitearrayofproductsinbatchesassmallasone.

Thefollowingchartsummarizestheroleofmachines,labor,materials,anddistributionnetworksineachera:

ProductionLine

Manually-operatedmachinetools

Skilledmachineoperators

Metal,wood,rubber

Wholesalers

None

Machinery

Labor’sAdded

Value

Materials

Distribution

Recycling/

UseofProducts

ManufacturingWeb

Computerizednumericalcontrolmachinetools(CNC)

Programmers

Metal,wood,plastic,foam

Retailers,directtoconsumers

Selectcomponents

FabricationCloud

Rapidprototyping/additivemanufacturing

Designers

Plastic,lowmelting-pointmetals,powderedmaterials,cells,binders

Fabricate-on-demand,fabricateon-site

Entireobjects

Source:IFTF

evolution in manufacturing



Perils: a world of “crapjects”

As3Dprintinglowersthecostofengaginginaproductionrun,itwillbringbothopportunitiesandperils.Foronething,itislikelytoencouragetheproductionofsubstandardgoods—whatsomemayseeasfrivolousproduction.Surely,theworldisawashinlow-qualitymass-producedgoodstoday.Butseveralaspectsof3Dprintingandopenfabricationcouldreinforcethistrend.

First,thediffusionof3Dprintingwillpresentafairlysteeplearningcurveforbothdesignersandconsumers.Learninghowto3Dprintofteninvolvesmakingmanyuseless,substandardobjects.Evenifmostwilleventuallymoveontomorecarefullyselecteddesignsforproduction,thebroaderperceptionof3Dprintingisoftenlikelytobeassociatedwithflawed,low-quality,disposableoutcomes.Muchofwhatcomesoutof3Dprinterswillbe“crapjects”(acontractionof“crappyobjects”)—unwantedwastecreatedbyunskilleddesignersandfabricatedusinginferiormaterialswithpoorsurfaceresolution.

Additionally,thereisthescenarioof“physicalspam,”wherepeoplesimplyuse3Dprinterswithabandon,producingalargenumberofobjectsofinfinitesimallysmallvalue.Thismaybereinforcedbyfuture3Dprintersthatcaneasilyrecyclefeedstocks,greatlyloweringtheperceivedecologicaloreconomicimpactofoverproduction.Still,thenoveltyofrapidfabricationmaywearoffasthehighexpectationswehavedevelopedaroundmass-producedobjects’strengthanddurability,surfacetexture,andlusterprovehardtoleavebehind.

Opportunities: a world of totems

3Dprintingandopendesignalsopresentuswiththeopportunitytobreakdownthestandardizationanduniformitythat’sbeenenforcedbymassproductionforacentury.Initsplace,wewillseeanexplosionofpersonalizedobjects,introducingforthefirsttimeartisanalcharacteristicstomanufacturedproducts.Theseobjectsmayincorporatefeaturesbasedonsensoryorscanneddatafromindividuals,suchas“BeYourOwnSouvenir,”ahackthatcombined3DscanningwithaRepRap3Dprintertoallowtouriststocreatepersonalfigurinesofthemselves.

Inthe2010sciencefictionfilmInception,corporatespieswhoenterthedreamsoftheirtargetscarry“totems,”smallobjectswhoseprecisephysicalcharacteristicsarekeptasapersonalsecrettoallowthespyareferencepointtorecoverhissenseofrealityandescapethedream.Inanthropologicalterms,atotemisanobjectthatservesasanemblemorsymbolofaclan,family,orindividual.Personalizedfabricatedobjectshavethepotentialtobecometotemsandbeimbuedbytheirpossessorswithspiritualsignificance.

Thesenewpossibilitiesmeanthatopenfabricationwilltakethespectrumofconsumerproductexperienceswearefamiliarwithandpushittotheextremeedges—atthesametimerenderingobjectsbothmoremeaninglessandbanalandalsogivingthemuniquenessandpersonality.

Aworldofphysicalspam?

Source:FlickruserMaskedRetreiver

AtotemfromthefilmInception

Source:pulsarmedia.eu

8

manufacturing’s big bang

Openfabricationwillchallengekeyassumptionsofindustrialproduction:thattherearealwaysincreasingreturnstoscale,thatcomplexsupplychainsareneededtofabricatecomplexobjects,andthatmanufacturingprocesses(ratherthandesign,whichcaneasilybecopied)arethecoreintellectualproperty.

Asthesefoundationsaredisruptedinmanufacturing’sversionoftheBigBang,we’llseethewaysmanufacturingisorganizedinphysicalspacefragmentandrecombinealongseveraldimensions:

From centralized factories to distributed, mobile fabs

Traditionalassemblylineshavelongplacedlimitationsonwhereandhowobjectscanbeproducedbecausethescaleneededtoreduceunitcostsrequiresmassivecentralization.3Dprintingwillallowproductiontobemovedclosertothesiteofconsumptionandallowsupplychainstofragmentintomanyverysmall-scalepartsproducers.Also,3Dprintersareself-contained,morestandardizedthancomputer-controlledmachinetools,andrequireasupplychaintoprovideonlytwothings:electricpowerandalimitedsetoffeedstocks.Thiswillenablenewkindsofmanufacturingbusinessmodelsbasedonshort-run,site-,andevent-specificorevenadhocproductionruns.

From fixed to mobile machines

3Dprinterswillalsoofferthepossibilityofbeingmovedduringtheproductionprocess,allowingforthecreationofstructuresinthefield.Ironically,self-propelled3Dprinterswillbeabletoindustrializetheproductionofsomegoodsthathavetraditionallybeentoolargetomanufactureinfactories.Inbuildingconstruction,forexample,3Dprintedmasonrycouldultimatelybecheaperthanlabor-intensivetraditionalbuildingmethods.Contourcrafting,atechnologyunderdevelopmentattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,hassoughttomake3Dprintingthepivotaltechnologyinwhatamountstoahouse-buildingfactoryonwheels.Theresearchersinvolvedprojectmainstreamcommercializationwithinthenexttenyears.

From desktop back to factory

Whileopenfabbingwilldiffusemanufacturingcapabilitiesbroadlythroughouttheeconomy,countercurrentswilldevelopasthesetechnologiescreepbackupthesupplychainandtransformthefactoryitself.3Dprintingisalreadyplayingaroleinthefactory—forinstance,printingcomplexnewshapesforaircraftassembliesthatwouldbenearlyimpossibletomanufactureusingtraditionaltechniques.Incertainproductionniches,from10unitsto10,000units,3Dprintingwillallowmorekindsoflocalmanufacturingenterprisestothrive,bothbybringingtheunitcostsofsmall-scaleproductiondownandbybeingsmallandunobtrusiveenoughtobeslippedintononindustrialurbanspaces.OrganizationssuchasDominicMuren’sHumblefactory—aSeattle-baseddevelopmentconsultancyofferingstrategicdesignconsultinginopenhardwarefortheeverydayindustrialist—areemergingtobringmanufacturingoutofthefactoryandintothehomeofthe“cottageindustrialist.”

DominicMuren’sHumblefactoryseekstosourcematerialslocallytocreatesustainableelectronics.

Source:DominicMuren


2 The fOUNdaTIONS Of OPeN faBRICaTION

Theopen-sourcesoftwaremovement,inwhichoriginalsourcecodeis

madefreelyavailableandcanberedistributed,hashadatremendous

impactwithintheITindustryoverthelasttwodecades.Now,emerg-

ingtechnologiespromisetosimilarlymovethefabricationofphysical

thingstowardgreaterdigitizationanddemocratization.Weareentering

aworldinwhichsoftwarecodecanbeusedtoproduceobjects,and

inthisworld,newtechnologieswillallowformorefreeavailabilityand

distributionofactualthings.Atthecenterofthisshiftistheemergence

ofsystemsforusingsoftwaretobuildphysicalobjects—forexample,

3Dprintingoradditivefabricationtechnologies.

Additivefabricationisstillveryyoungwhencomparedtomanyothermanufacturingapproaches.Yet,injustovertwodecadesthefieldhasmanagedtoexpandfromanear-exclusivefocusonstereolithography(atechnologyfocusedonsolidifyingliquidpolymerswithlaserlightexposure)forprototyping,toawiderangeofprocessesandmaterials,includingfinalproductmanufacturingandpreliminaryentryintothehomeconsumermarket.Theprocesshasdevelopeddistinctadvantagesformanyprojectsinvolvinglowproductionruns,uniqueorcomplexdesign,shippingconstraints,andtimelimitations.However,fundamentallimitationsinprocess,software,andmaterialsremaintobeaddressed.Still,therearesignsofemergingcapabilitiesinboththesoftwareandmaterialsspacesthatcouldhaveatransformativeimpactonthefuturedirectionofthistechnology.

2 | The fOUNdaTIONS Of OPeN faBRICaTION

10

Software frontiers

More cost-effective design

Futuregenerationsofdesignsoftwarewilladdresstheissuescurrentlyholdingbackprogressinopenfabrication.Forexample,whencomparedtotraditionalinjectionmolding,additivemanufacturingisnearlyalwaysatrade-offbetweenasavingsinfixedcostsandagreaterunitprice.Still,therearemanysmallproduction-runnicheswhere3Dprintingmakeseconomicsense,althoughcurrenttoolsdonothelpdesignersunderstandthesetrade-offs.

Withinthenextdecade,designsoftwareislikelytoemergethatwillbegintotakeonthischallenge,allowinguserstobetterjudgethecostofa3D-printedmanufacturingrunrelativetotraditionalmanufacturingmethods.Already,earlysignalsofthistransitionarebeginningtotakeshape.Forexample,theWithinEnhancesoftwareprogramallowsfabricatorstodesignmorecost-effectivepartsandtomoreefficientlyorienttheirproductsintheprintingmachinesothattheytakeadvantageofthefact,forinstance,thatprintinghorizontallyinsteadofverticallyofferssignificantcostreductions.

Mass customization

Oneofthekeypotentialapplicationsofdigitalfabricationisgivinguserstheabilitytocustomizemassproductsforindividualuse.Kevlarbodyarmor,forexample,couldbemodifiedtoexactlyfitanindividualsoldierorlawenforcementofficer,andstandardprostheticscouldbepreciselycustomizedforindividualuse.

Fromasoftwarestandpoint,thisfeaturereliesontheabilitytochangeindividualdesignparameterswhileholdingallotherproductcharacteristicsconstant.Thisabilitytochangeoneparameteratatimeisrareincurrentsoftwarebutisanemergingfeatureinanewgenerationof“parametricdesignsoftware,”whichwillbecomemorecommonovertheintermediateterm.Invisalignorthodonticproductsarealreadybasedonthisprinciple,andotherdentalapplicationsarecurrentlyaparticularlystrongdriverinthisarea.

Rendering “impossible” forms

3Dprintingallowsfortheproductionofcomplexformsthatwouldbeextremelydifficult,orevenimpossible,fortraditionalmanufacturing.Yet,currentrenderingsoftwareisalsooftennotadequatefortakingfulladvantageofthecomplex,oftenbiomimetic,designsthatareacorestrengthofadditivemanufacturingproductiontechniques.Digitalrenderingof3Dobjectsforprintingoftendoesnotallowusersmuchcontroloverhowexactlyanobjectisprinted,yetthisfactorhasmaterialconsequences.Withinadecade,softwarewillbetterrealizethecomplexdesigndetailsthatadditivefabricationhardwareisalreadyexcellentatproducing.

Infact,thissteptowardbetterdesignsoftwarewillneedtobeginwithfundamentallabwork,sincetheexacteffectsthat3Dprintinghasonmaterials,particularlyusingdifferentbuildapproachesandenergylevels,arestillonlybeginningtobeunderstood.Anumberofnewmaterialsforuseindigitalfabricationprocesseshavebecomeavailableovertime,yettherehasbeennodisciplinedapproachtoscreeningfor

Within’sIntelligentCADSoftware:WithinEnhance

Source:WithinLabs

Softwareadvancesallowfabricatedproductstobeeasilytailoredtoindividualparameters.

Source:Invisalign



suitablecandidatesoreventounderstandingtheprecisephysicalpropertiesthatthesematerialstakeafterprinting.

Theaviationindustry’sadoptionof3Dprintingwillbeabarometerofthisprocess.Thesectorisaleaderindemandforfabricatedpartsandtoolsandthisfurtherbasicresearchwillbeanecessaryprecursortothewidespreadadoptionof3Dfabricationoftentoutedasanindustrygoal.Forconsumersandregulatorstobecomecomfortablewithwidespreaduseofmission-critical3Dprintedparts,bettermodelingofthephysicsof3Dprintingandprintedproductswillbeessential.

Haptic design interfaces

Atamorebasiclevel,thesoftwarecapabilitiesorbitingadditivefabricationtechnologiesarepoisedtodiversify.Forhomeusersthistrendislikelytotranslateintomoreuser-friendlyprogramswithsimplerinterfaces.Forindustrialapplications,asuiteofnewoptionsandfeaturesislikelytocomeonline.Inbothcases,moreintuitivemodelingapproacheswillemerge,includingmulti-materialmodeling,3Dvisualization,andmorehaptic(gesture-based)interfaces.

TherecentintroductionofMicrosoft’sKinectsystemisapowerfuldemonstrationoftheearlymomentumofhaptictechnologies.Whilethedevicewasnotintendedtobeusedforsculptingapplications,inventiveuserscreatedanumberofsculptinghackswithinjustafewweeksofitsrelease.

Alongsimilarlines,theRepRapopen-source3Dprintingprojecthasalreadyseentheintroductionofahapticvirtual“potterywheel”whichcanbeusedtodirectlyshapeobjectsforprinting.Thesetechnologieswillcometogetherandimproveovertime,finallymovingtowardeventualmasscommercialization.

material advances

Reusable feedstocks

Materialsarealsoonthethresholdofanumberoflikelyadvances.Thepromiseoffullyrecyclablematerialscouldbethemostrevolutionaryinnovationonthehorizoninthisarea.Fromatechnicalstandpoint,thiscouldberelativelylow-hangingfruit,trackingothermaterialsrecyclingefforts.However,thepayoffintermsofboth3Dprintingpopularizationandtheimpactonoverallconsumptionpatternscouldbetremendous.

3Dprintingisoftencriticizedforitstendencytoencouragewastefulness.Soitisexcitingtoimaginethepossibilitiesofindividualconsumerssimplyreusingthesamehalf-poundorsoofhomogeneoushardpolymerprintingmaterialagainandagain,ratherthancyclingthroughhundredsofdisposableplasticproductsoverthecourseofalifetime.

Wearestillawaysawayfromthisgoal,buttherearesignalsthatweareheadedtowardatleastsomeapplicationsthatusematerialsmoreresponsibly.Forexample,ahacktotheMakerBothomeprintingsystemallowsuserstomaketheirownfeedstockfromusedmilkbottles.

ArtistBathshebaGrossmanincorporates3Dprinted“impossible”formsintoherwork.

Source:BathshebaGrossman

TheRepRapvirtualpotterywheelallowsuserstodirectlyshapeobjectsforprinting.

Source:RepRap

12

Platforms and business models for reusable feedstocks

Iftakentoanextreme,thecapabilitytocompletelyreconfigureprintedobjectscouldultimatelytransformourattachmenttophysicalgoods.Indeed,workunderwayatCornellUniversityhintsatthispossibility.There,researchersattheComputationalSynthesisLabareworkingonaprojectfor“rapidfabricationofphysicalvoxels.”Essentially,theideaistoprintfutureproductsbypreciselyadheringthousandsofindividualmicroscopicspheresmadeofawidevarietyofdifferentmaterials.The“voxels”herecanbethoughtofasthe3Dphysicalequivalentofimagepixels.Theresearchersspeculatethatthesevoxelscouldbecompletelyrecycledbyusingasolventthatbreaksdowntheadhesive.

Thepotentialtoemployreusablefeedstocksinopenfabricationmayrelyontherelativeopennessofthearchitectureofthemachinesthemselves.Theremaybelittleincentivetofacilitatefullmaterialrecyclingunless3Dprintingmachineshaveanopenarchitecture.Otherwise,thehomefabricationindustrymayendupcopyingthehomeprintingbusinessmodel,inwhichtheprinteritselfisrelativelyinexpensivebutoffsetbylargeprofitmarginsoninkcartridges.Underthistypeofscenario,thedrivetoradicallyreducetheamountofmaterialusedissomethingfortheindustrytoactivelyblockratherthanencourage.

Biological feedstocks

Overtheshorterterm,biologicalapplicationswillgraduallybecomemorecentraltofabrication.Theprocesswilllikelybeginwithfood.Thereis,forexample,noreasonthatthestatuesstandingatopfutureweddingcakescouldnotbeaccurate3Dmodelsoftheactualcouplecreatedfromonlyafewphotoimages.Thiskindoffoodprintingislikelytobealargemarketfornext-stagecommercializationof3Dprinting.Becausemanycommonfoodsarealreadyinliquidformatsomepointintheirprocessing,itisnotdifficulttoimaginecommercialservices,homeproducts,andeventoysthattakeadvantageoftheseproperties.

Beyondthis,biomedicalapplicationscurrentlyunderdevelopmenthavemoreastonishingimplications.Ongoingstem-cellresearch,ratherthanfabricationper se,istherealmiracle,but3Dprintingoffersameanstopreciselypositionandshapethecellsforbroaderapplications.Indeed,successfulexperimentshavemanipulatedstemcellswithtechnologynomoresophisticatedthanastandardhomeink-jetprinter.

Thesuccessfuladditionofascaffoldingmaterialimpliesthat3Dfabricationwilllikelytakeitsplaceasanintegralpartoffuturetissueengineeringefforts.Whilestillmanyyearsfromclinicaluse,organicformsarealreadybeingprintedfromliveorganstemcells,aswasdemonstratedonstageatthe2011TEDconferencebypresenterDr.AnthonyAtala.

Onastillmorenovelfront,thiscapabilitywilllikelyextendintoexperimentswithin-vitvomeat.If“grownmeat”becomesaviableproductinthefuture,itislikelythat3Dprintingwillplayakeyroleinthistransition.

TheRecyclebotallowsuserstouseshreddedmilkbottlesasfeedstock.

Source:SocietyofPlasticsEngineers

AdepictionofCornellUniversityresearchintofabricationwithphysical“voxels”.

Source:CornellUniversity



Printed electronics

Despitethelimitationsimposedbymaterials,3Dprintingisalreadyapproachingwhatmightsoundlikesciencefictiononsomefronts.Printedelectronics,forexample,arealreadybeingproducedbyanumberoflaboratoriesandarelikelytocometomarketwithinthenextdecade,bringingconsumerapplicationsrangingfromflexiblecircuitboardstorollabletelevisionscreensintoproduction.Withintenyears,thisprinted“digitalpaper”willbeacommonconsumeritem.

Thecapabilitiesofthetechniquemaybeenhancedwithintegrationintoothermanufacturingprocesses,includingmultipletreatmentsofprintedobjectssimilartochiplithographyprocessescurrentlyusedinthesemiconductorindustry.Rightnow,thesearemulti-stageprocessesinvolvingmultiplesteps,ratherthanprocessesforproducingfullyrealizedproducts.Shouldthisbeadominantapplication,additivefabricationmaybelessdemocratizedthaninitialenthusiastshavehoped,atleastovertheintermediateterm.However,thetrade-offhereisinexchangeforgreaterdegreesofcontroloverproductsandprocesses.

OrganprintinginDr.AnthonyAtala’sLab

Source:Dr.AnthonyAtala

“Electronicpaper”technologiesrelyonmanyofthesame

underlyingtechnologiesasadditivefabrication.

Source:Fujitsu


OPeN faBRICaTION COmmUNITIeS3

Over the next decade, open fabrication will develop within a new

network of collaborative production. We will see a more diverse

manufacturingecosystemthatdependsasmuchonsocial factorsas

itdoesontechnologicalones.Inaworldwhereobjectsbecomedigital,

thesinglemostcriticalfactorshapingthisfuturemaybeourabilityto

develop a new framework for regulating information ownership and

knowledgesharing.Hereweexploretwoof themost importantopen

fabrication communities: the leading-edge makers, fabricators, and

designerswhoareexperimentingwith3Dtechnologies,andtheChinese

shanzhai,or “bandit,”manufacturerswhoarechanging thegame for

global entrepreneurship. Understanding how these groups approach

theideaofintellectualpropertyrevealscluesaboutthechallengesand

disruptionstocome.

The MakerBot Thingiverse

Anemergentcommunityofhackers,designers,andfabbersareapplyingtheprinciplesofDIY,open-source,andcooperativecollaborationaroundtwonewplatforms—theMakerBotThing-O-MaticdesktopprinterandtheThingiverseobjectrepository.Thiscommunityissettingthestageforwide-scalecombinatorialinnovationinfabrication,andpioneeringnewbusinessmodelsaroundopenstandards,openplatforms,andopenintellectualproperty.

China’s manufacturing innovators

Chinaiscurrentlyhometothemostrobustanddiversemanufacturingecosystemontheplanet,includinglegitimatebusinessesandtheshanzhai(pronouncedshahn-jai)or“bandit”manufacturers.Cuttingregulatorycornersbyoperatingoutsidethelawis,perhapsnotsurprisingly,agreatwaytomakeaprofit.Butitturnsoutthatitalsocreatesnewkindsofknowledgesharingandsparksbottom-upprocessinnovation.Thiscommunityissettingthestageforadisruptiveproductdevelopmentandmanufacturingnetworkthatwillenablefabricatorentrepreneursaroundtheworldtorealizetheirproductsatapaceandscalethatwillrivaltraditionalmanufacturersand,possibly,transformtheretaillandscape.

3 | OPeN faBRICaTION COmmUNITIeS

16

Open fab community 1: the makerBot Thingiverse

Thegapbetweenthetheoreticalcapacitytoprintany3Dobjectandactuallyprintinganobjectin3Discurrentlyquitelarge.Firstandforemost,theThing-O-Matic—MakerBot’scurrentmodelprinter—retailsfor$1,299.ThenthereisthefactthattheThing-O-Maticdoesnotcomepreassembled.DependingontheDIYskillsofthepurchaser,constructionoftheprintertakesanywherefrom12to48hours.Finally,althoughitisnotafragilepieceofmachinery,theThing-O-Maticneverthelessrequiresalargeamountoftroubleshootinginordertostayinfunctioningorder.Indeed,anothertypeofdesktop3DprintercalledtheRepRapcostsslightlylessthantheThing-O-Maticbutrequiresagreatdealmoretechnicalexpertisetoconstructandkeepinworkingorder.

Furthermore,theabilitytocreate3DobjectswiththeThing-O-Maticisdependentonthefabricator’sabilitytocreateaccurate3Dmodels.Somecomputer-assisteddesign(CAD)softwareisfree—SketchupandBlender,forinstance—butthemorepowerfulcommercialsoftwarecancostbetween$500(fortoolsbyRhinoceros,forexample)and$5000(forAutocad’sDesignSuite).Whileitmaybeeasyforanexperienceddesignertoenvisionandfashionadigitalrepresentationofanobjectin3Dspace,currentlyno“intuitive”designsoftwareexists.Byprovidingdesignsfordownloadandmodification,thingiverse.comtakestheburdenofdesignoffthefabricator,asuserswithlimiteddesignskillcanalterexistingdesignsratherthanstartingfromfirstprinciples.

Forcompaniesconcernedaboutdigitaldesignpiracy,theabilitytouseCADtoolstocustomizeofficialdesignsofbrand-nameobjectsoffersapotentialfuturebusinessmodel.Inexchangeforpayingtodownloadanofficiallycertifieddesignthatcanbeprintedathome,consumersmaybeabletoworkwithinpreexistingparameterstocreateversionsofobjectsthataretailoredtopersonaltastesandneeds.

Thefabricatoralsoneedstoknowhowtoworkwiththematerialsdesktop3Dprintersarecapableofusing—currently,superheatedplasticextrudedinlayerstocreatethedesiredshape.Sincethemoltenplasticneedstimetocoolbeforeanotherlayerofmaterialcanbeadded,creatingsmallobjectsbecomesdifficult,asimproperlycooledplasticcanresultinanunevenbuildsurface,whichcanleadtodeformedobjects.Giventheneedforastablebuildsurface,itisalsocurrentlynotpossibletocreateobjectswithlargeoverhangingareas.

What does it mean to be a personal fabricator?

Clearly,thefutureofpersonalfabricationdependsonawidearrayofskillsandtoolsthatempowertheenduserwiththecapacitytocreateanyobjectthatheorshedesiresorneeds.Giventheselimitations,whatisperhapsmostremarkableisthenumberoftrulyinnovativeandusefulthingsthathavebeencreatedbythestill-nascentfabricatorcommunity.OnealreadyclassicexamplecomesfromtheThingiverseuserLaszlo.Laszlo’sblenderbroke,andinsteadoftryingtotrackdownreplacementpartsorhavingtothrowitawayandthenbuyanewone,Laszlocreatedamodelofthebrokenpartandprintedoutthereplacement.

Bloggingaboutthisprocess,Laszlonotesthatthemodelingofthereplacementparttookapproximately15minutes,indicatingthatheisclearlyapoweruserofmodelingsoftware.Evenso,asthedesignskillstoaccuratelymodelsimpleobjectsin3Ddigital

LowerManhattanhasbeen3DrenderedandsharedonThingiverseforanyonetodownload,modify,andprint.


Lazslousedpersonalfabricationtorepairhisblender,completewithprintedgear.




spacebegintospread,itispossiblethatwewillbegintoenteraworldinwhichthelifecycleofsimplehouseholdgoods—likeLaszlo’sblender—canbeextendedthroughpersonalfabrication.

It takes a world to make MakerBot

Thepromiseof3Dprintingtechnologyisthatitempowerstheindividualtocreatethingsthathave,untilnow,requiredresourcesandcapitalthatwereonlyfeasibleforcorporationsortheverywealthy.Andalthoughpersonalfabricatorsdounlockawidearrayofcapacitiesfortheindividualuser,thesecapacitiesareenmeshedwithinanetworkofenablingpeople,communities,andtechnologies.TheexampleofLaszloshowshowatrained,financiallystableuserwhoispatientenoughtotolerateanimperfectmachinecancreateobjectsofgreatutility.ThenetworkofgoodsandknowledgethatLaszlohadtoharnessinordertogettothepointwherehecouldfixhisownblenderisnothingshortofastonishing.GoingthroughthepartslistfortheThing-O-Matic,aswellasthethingsneededinordertoconstructtheMakerBot(solder,wirestrippers,etc.),oneencountersatleastsixdifferentvisiblecountry-of-originstamps.TheillustrationsatrightshowsomeexamplesofwherevariousportionsoftheMakerBotoriginated.

Andthisisonlywhatisreadilyidentifiable.Ifoneweretofurthertracktheprovenanceoftheother50-oddpartsoftheThing-O-Matic,thislistoforigincountrieswouldgrow.Furthermore,thecommunityofpeoplewhoparticipateintheforumdiscussionsandhelpthreadsontheMakerBotwiki,andwhoprovidemodifiablemodelsonThingiverse,representatrulyglobalsourceofintellectualcapital.

Whichistosay,ittakesaworldtomakeaMakerBot.Theadventofpersonalfabrication—technologythathasthepotentialtochangethehumanrelationshiptopersonalgoods—isonlypossiblethankstothemobilizationofanumberofcomplicatedglobalmanufacturing,supply,andsupportchains.

Open fab community 2: China’s shanzhai

Aswelookoutoveranewlandscapeofopenfabtools,materials,andprocesses,weseechangestakingplaceinglobalmanufacturingthatwillaccelerateandcomplementopenfabrication.Chineseindustrializationisperhapsthemostimportant—particularlythesectorofChineseindustryknownasshanzhaimanufacturing.

Chinaistransformingtheworldeconomy,upsettingtheeconomicbalanceofpowertoagreaterextentthananyother“developingcountry”sincetheUnitedStatesemergedasaglobalsuperpower.Thisshifthasbeenunderwayforthepastseveraldecades,butitisonlyinthelasttenyearsthatmostglobalbusinesseshavestartedtoseetherealeffectsofthesechanges.We’llbeseeingalotmoreinthedecadetocome.By2021,accordingtoglobaleconomicforecasterIHS,China’sShanghai-JiangsuregionalonewillbeabiggereconomicplayerthantheNetherlands,Australia,Brazil,Mexico,Korea,orCanada.

Manufacturinghasbeenattheheartofthisgrowth.Afteramorethancentury-longrunasthetopmanufacturerfortheworld,theUnitedStatesnowstandsatnumbertwo.Chinaproduced19.8%oftheworld’smanufacturingoutputascomparedto

TheThing-O-Matic’stimingbeltsmoveitsbuildplatformandcome

fromtheUnitedKingdom.

Source:MathiasCrawford

Arduino,anopen-sourceelectronicsprototypingplatform

basedonflexible,easy-to-usehardwareandsoftware,

wasdesignedinItalybutlikelyassembledelsewhere.


Thepowerresistors,fromMexico,areresponsibleforheatingthe

nozzlethatdistributesthemeltedplastic.


18

19.4%fortheUnitedStatesin2010.Muchofthishappenedinthelasttenyears.In2000,6.9%oftheworld’stotalmanufacturingcamefromChina;thatnearlytripledby2010.AnalystsexpectChinatomaintainthispositionforsometimetocome,butprobablynotatsuchafastrateofgrowth.OverthenextdecadetherewillbetwomaindriversofgrowthinChinesemanufacturing:(1)Chinesecompanieswillcontinuetomakegoodsfortherestoftheworld,and(2)theworld’sbusinesseswilllocatemorefactoriesinChinatoservicethegrowingChineseconsumermarket.

Chinese maker ecosystem

ProductioniswovenintodailylifeacrossChina.Overthepast60years,asocialistfocusonindustrializationdevelopedintoa“marketsocialist”export-ledeconomicmiracle.Alongtheway,ruralcommunitiesbuiltfactories,hundredsofmillionsofpeopleleftthelandforworkalongtheeasterncoast,androbustnetworksofindustrialclustersemerged.Theseregionalnetworksarecomprisedofthousandsoreventensofthousandsofcompaniesthatbenefitfromco-location,creatingacompetitivelocaleconomyofknowledge,skills,andprocesses.Theyhavebeenconcentratedinthecoastalregions,mostnotablyinthePearlRiverDeltanearHongKong,theYangtzeRiverDeltanearShanghai,andtheBohai-rimregionnearBeijing.

NewmanufacturingclustersarealsogrowingasindustrymovesintoChina’swesternhalf,drawnbycheaperlocallabor,growingdomesticconsumermarkets,andtherawmaterialsoftheless-developedwest.Regionalgovernmentshavebecomemoreinvolvedinbrandingthemselvesbyspecificindustries,foreverythingfromWuxiphotovoltaicstotheconsumerelectronicssectorinDongguan.AsYuZhou,professorofgeographyatVassarCollege,notes,“Theseclusterstakealongtimetoform.Eventhoughtheyseemtoreactfast,itisnotsomethingyoucanbuildquickly.”DuringaperiodinwhichAmericanmanufacturinghasdeclined,Chinahascreatedavibrantecologyofproductionthathasnoglobalrivalintermsofscaleanddiversity.“Itisnotjustaboutlowcost,”notesLiamCasey,CEOofsupplychainmanagementcompanyPCH,“butaboutskillsandecosystemandinfrastructure.”Thinkofitasafoundationforfuturegrowth—notjustfortheChinesenation,butforanewkindofmanufacturingthatwilldisrupttraditionalmodelsofinnovation,productcycles,andprofits.

China’stightlyintegratedmanufacturingwebhasalsobecomeaforcefortheproductionofblackmarketgoodsatascaleandpacethathasupendedglobalconsumerelectronics,apparel,andcosmeticsindustries,thoughthislistmaygrow.Itisagiantexperimentinglobalcommercewitherraticconformitytocurrentlawsonintellectualproperty.Thisexperimentoffersusoneevolvingmodelofopenfabricationthatraisesimportantquestionsforthefuture.

Shanzhai factories and knowledge sharing

Shanzhaifactories,namedafterthemountainfortresseshousingbanditsintraditionalChinesenovelssuchasOutlaws of Marsh,arethemurkyunderwebofChina’sindustrialclusters.Likethebanditsofyore,theylivebytheirowncode,stealfromtherich,andprovidetothepoor.Overthepastdecade,theshanzhaihavegrownfromsmall-timeproducersofshoddycopycatgoodstocaptureanestimated10%oftheglobalmobilephonemarket.Withtheiruniquefeatures,quirkydesigns,andlowprice-points,shanzhaiphonescanbefoundacrossIndia,Africa,Russia,andSouthAmerica.Infact,itwaslikelytheseaffordableChinese-madephonesthatfueledtheTwitterandFacebookrevolutionsoftheMiddleEast.Theshanzhaialsomakeathleticshoes,cosmetics,andclothing.



Aswiththeirlegitimatecounterparts,theshanzhaiareanetworkofhighlyspecializedsubcontractorproducers.Small-scaleplayerscontinuouslyhonetheirpartofthedesign,manufacturing,packaging,anddistributionprocesses,shavingoffcostandimprovingquality.Allofthisrequiresanextraordinaryamountofnetworkcoordinationbetweenthedifferentparties.TheydonotinvestinmarketingresearchorR&D;theydon’townstores,stockfinishedgoodsinventory,hiresalesstaff,orfundlogisticsnetworks.Theyalsodon’tpaytaxesorconformtolaborandsafetyregulations.

Wheretheshanzhaigobeyondlawfulmanufacturersisintheirapproachtoknowledgesharing.It’snotsimplythattheyfloutWesternIPlawsandallformsofproprietaryknowledge—theyhavetheirsecrets,too.Buttheyhavediscoveredthatsharingcertainkindsofinformationleadstomoreprofits.Whatshouldinterestusisthattheirsystemalsoacceleratesnewinventions,manufacturing,andmorefine-grainedresponsivenesstolocalconsumertastes.

Shanzhai rules

Herearetherulestheshanzhailiveby:

• Donothingfromscratch;buildonthebestofwhatothershavealreadydone.

• Innovateprocessceaselesslyatsmallscalesforspeedandcostsavings.

• Shareasmuchasyoucantomakeiteasyforotherstoseeyourvalueandtoaddvaluetoyourprocess.

• Sellitbeforeyoumakeit.

• Actresponsiblywithinthesupplychaintopreserveyourreputation.

Theshanzhairegularlyexchangeideasandhaveakeensenseofwhoisgoodatwhat.EricPan,founderandCEOofSeeedStudio,reportsthatwithoutconcernforintellectualproperty,theshanzhaihavecreatedasetofpublic,oropen,toolsandprocesses,suchasanopenBillofManufacturing,openboards,andopencasesusedforphones,tablets,andotherelectronicdevices,thatmaketheirsupplynetworkstransparent.Keepingsecretsinthesupplychainhasacostthatshanzhaiarenotwillingtobear.“IfsharingmyspecswithyoumeansIcloseadealfaster,Iwillshareitwithyou.WaitingadaytosignanNDAmeansadaylongerIsitonmyinventory,”saysBunnieHuang,well-knownAmericanhackerandFounderandVPofHardwareEngineeringatChumby.

Sincethesystemreliesonoutsourcingeverything,asetofcommonprocessesalsohelpsefficientlycirculateworktothemostskilledplayers.Transparencyisaformofself-promotionandhelpsothersseewheretheycanaddvaluetoyoursupplychainwithoutyouhavingtosearchthemoutyourself.Thereisalsoacertainfatalismabouttryingtokeepnewinventionssecretinaworldofknock-offs.“Ifit’sgoingtobecopiedanyway,”saysDavidLi,socialgamingconsultantandForemanatChina’sfirsthackerspace,Xinchejian,“itmayjustaswellbeopenandshared.”

Whatdoesn’tgetsharediswhatliesattheheartoftheshanzhaivaluepropositionfortheconsumer.OntopofthehyperspecializedplatformoftheChineseindustrial

Ascreenshotfromanin-depthvideotouroftheShanzhaimarket.

Source:M.I.C.Gadget

20

clusters,thesourceofindividualvalueforeachshanzhaimanufacturerisaneye-popping,never-endingdiversityoffeaturesanddesignsthatcreatenewconsumerexperiences.Takeatightlyintegratedandhighlycompetitivedesign-to-shelfsupplychain,combineitwithalackofIPenforcement,andyougetaclassofsmall-scalemanufacturerswhocanrespondmoreflexiblytotheemergingwhimsanddesiresofthemarket.

Evolutionary product “mash-ups”

Someofthethingsthatshanzhaimanufacturerscomeupwithareabitcomical:traditionalChineseslipperswithaNikeswooshorAdidasstripes,amobilephonethatcanstoreyourcigarettesandlightthemforyoutoo,phonesshapedlikebeetles,pandas,orMickeyMouse.

Others,especiallyintheconsumerelectronicssector,aregivingconsumersthingstheyactuallywant,butmultinationalcorporationshavebeenunwillingorunabletoprovide:aphonewithaheavybatterythatlastsseveralweeksonasinglecharge;orahandheldthatdoublesascommunicationdeviceandboombox.

Ina2009blogpostgivinghackersoutsideofChinatheirfirstglimpseofthemakersbehindshanzhai,BunnieHuangwrote:

“Theyaredoingtohardwarewhatthewebdidforrip/mix/burnormashupcompilations.…TheyarenotcopiesofanysingleideabuttheymixIPfrommultiplesourcestocreateanewheterogeneouscomposition,suchthattheoriginalsourcematerialisstilldistinctlyrecognizableinthefinalproduct.Also,likemanyWebmash-ups,thefinalresultmightseemnonsensicaltoamassmarket(liketheFerrariphone)butextremelyrelevanttoaselectlong-tailmarket.”

Transparentprocessesandhyperspecializationallowtheseverysmallfirmstocombinethecapacityintheregionandreactextremelyquicklytothingsthey’veneverseenbefore.Inakindofrapidevolution,nothingisdesignedfromscratch;everythingisbuiltontopofpreviousproducts.TheshanzhaisystemisunlikelytoinventthenextiPad.ButitwillinnovatefuriouslyontopoftheiPad,creatingawiderangeofnewtabletswithallkindsofdifferentfeatures(theyarealreadyfloodingglobalmarketsin2011).High-priceddesignandtechnologyisbecomingavailabletoaglobalmassmarketthroughshanzhai.

Future of shanzhai

InthepastdecadetheChinesemanufacturingsystemhasgrownfrommakingcomponentstomakingcomplexgoodsthatcompetewithmultinationalsinlower-endconsumermarketsaroundtheworld.Whatarethemajorforcesshapingtheevolutionofthenextdecadeofshanzhai?

• IncreasedenforcementofIPRChina’sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganizationin2001coincidedwiththegrowthoftheshanzhaiandtheirIP-flauntingprocesses.

TheMi-Obamaphone,modeledaftertheNokia5300XpressMusic,

wasproducedfortheKenyanmarketinjustafewmonthsafter

BarackObama’selectionaspresidentoftheUnitedStates,and

sellsforaround$30.00.

Source:cellular-news.com



ShanzhaihavebeguntotakerealbitesoutofthemarketshareofmultinationalcorporationssuchasNokiaandwillimpacttabletandPCmakersaswellinthenextfewyears.Thehigherthestakes,thehigherthepressureontheChinesegovernmenttoenforceinternationalintellectualpropertyrights.InJanuary2011twoChineseagencies—theMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,andtheStateAdministrationofIndustryandCommerce—declaredacrackdownonshanzhaielectronicsmanufacturers.

• IncreasedR&DspendingResearchbyDr.YuZhouofVassarCollegeshowsthatChinesefirmshavesignificantlyincreasedtheirR&Dspendinginthepasttwoyears.Withtheirgrowingglobalsuccess,Chineseshanzhaiarecateringmoretoaglobalmarket.DavidLiofXinchejiannotesthatmanyoftheshanzhaiphonesnowsoldinChinacomepreinstalledwithTwitterandFacebookapps.WhilebothoftheseservicesareblockedinChina,thephonesaretargetingusersinothercountries.

• MovefromshanzhaitolegitimatebusinessInmanycases,Shanzhaifactoriesaimtobecomelegitimatebusinessesanddeveloptheirownbrands.TheChinesegovernmentseemstobeallowingsomebootlegbusinessestogrow,hopingtheywillfollowthispath.AsXinhuaNewsreports,ChinesehybridvehicleandbatterymanufacturerBYD,inwhichWarrenBuffethasa10%stake,beganasashanzhaiplantproducingcheapbatteries.

Designedforyoungwomen,thisphonetakestheshapeofa

compactmirror.

Source:clonedinchina.com


fOReCaSTS fOR OPeN faBRICaTION4

4 | fOReCaSTS fOR OPeN faBRICaTION

As the foundational technologies of open fabrication unleash new

innovation ecosystems—be they DIY grassroots hackers or agile,

globalizedmanufacturingnetworks—theywillenabledisruptivefutures

thattransformthematerialworld.Thefollowingforecastsaresnapshots

of plausible futures that can serve as provocations for strategic

discussions.Asyoureadtheseforecasts,thinkabouthowyouoryour

organization would respond if this future came true. Alternately, ask

yourselfhowyouwouldactdifferentlytodayifyouknewforcertainit

wouldcometrue.

democratizing industrial design

Intheearly2000s,keepingaWebdiarywasafairlychallengingtaskthatinvolvedcodingWebpagesandmanuallyarchivingandindexingoldposts.Thedevelopmentofopen-sourceandhostedbloggingplatformsmadeitmucheasierforaneophytetodesignandmanagea“Weblog”oftheirdailyinsights.ThesetoolsdeskilledtheprocessbytakingtheneedforWebdesignandsystemadministrationoutoftheloop,leavingcreativedirectionastheblogger’ssoletask.

Asimilartrendisatworkinopenfabrication.Whileit’snotyetassimpleaswritingablogpost,advancesindesignsoftwareareautomatingmanyofthemoretechnicalaspectsofobjectdesignandpre-printpreparation.Thisdemocratizationofindustrialdesignwillcertainlyleadtoasmanypoordesignsasthereareunreadblogsbutwillalsoexpandthecadreofdesignersfarbeyonditscurrentbounds.

Newcollaborativedesignprocessesthatapplycrowdsourcingprincipleswillbringsomeoftherapid,lightweightinnovationpotentialofopen-sourceandwikistoindustrialdesign.Newobjectswillbeabletobreakfreeoflong-lead-timedesigncycles,aswidespreadavailabilityofobjectdesignfileswillallowactualuserstomodifyandadaptgoodstosuitparticularneeds,ortoaddressunforeseenproblemsintheobject’simplementation.

24

Thisfutureislargelycontingentontwothings:(1)thedevelopmentofcommunitiessuchasThingiverse,whichareaimedatfosteringanopenexchangeofdesignfilesandideasabouthowobjectsaretobemade,and(2)improvedaccessibilityofevermorepowerfuldesignsoftwaretoindividualswithlimitedornodesignexperience.Designconcernsthatsoftwarewillhavetotakeintoaccountincludetheaestheticsofobjects,specificlimitationsofmaterialsusedinbuilding(forexample,theneedforplasticlayerstosolidifypartiallybeforeanewlayerisadded),andtheload-bearingcapacitiesofthematerialsthatareusedtocreateobjects.

ThenextgenerationofCADsoftwarewilltakeintoaccountthephysicalandmolecularcapabilitiesofobjectsusedinprinting.Userswillbeabletoindicatethestressesthatwillbeplacedonobjectsandwillbenefitfromcomputationalprocessesbuiltintothesoftwarethatwillhelptheusercreatedesignsthataredurableandrepresentativeofthedesiredfinalaesthetic.SoftwaresuchasWithinEnhanceisleadingthechargetointernalizereal-worldphysicsandmaterialcapabilitiesintothedesignsitcreates.

Thiswillalsobedrivenbyalargerculturaltrendthatincreasinglyvaluesdesign.PaulGoldberger,architecturecriticforThe New Yorker,sumsupthenewemphasisondesignnicely:

“Ithinkthetrulytransformativedevelopmentintheworldofdesignoverthelastgenerationhasbeenitsevolutionintothemainstream.Weareamuchmorevisualculturethanweoncewere;peoplecaremoreaboutdesignandarchitecture,andithasbecomemoreaccessibletothem.Thatdoesn’tmeaneverythingissuddenlygreat,andthatwe’reinsomekindofdesignnirvana.Alotofwhatwedonowislousy,asitalwayshasbeen.Butifyoulookatthedifferencebetween,say,aniPhoneandaPrincessphone,oraflat-screentelevisionandthefaux–FrenchProvincialTVcabinetswegrewupseeing,orthedifferencebetweenIKEAandthefurniturestoresourparentsshoppedin,youseehowmuchmoresophisticatedasworksofdesigntheobjectspeoplelivewithtodayare.”

The long now of materials

The“longnow,”atermcoinedbyBrianEno,seekstochallengepeopletostretchouttheirunderstandingofwhat“now”meansandtocontemplateaslowersenseoftime.Nothingcouldbetterexplainoneofthemostcrucialretardingforcesonthepaceofinnovationinopenfabrication—theslowflowofnewmaterialstotheopen-fabbingcommunity.Asoneexpertworkshopparticipantremarked,“Wewouldbeluckytogetonenewmaterialadecade”for3Dprinting.Manyotherexpertssharethispessimism.Whiletoolsadvancequickly,andsoftwaremoreslowly,materialsarethelaggardinopenfabrication.

Manycolorsarecurrentlyavailablefor3Dprinting,butonlyinasmallrangeofmaterials.

Source:SolidSmack.com



Theslowpaceofmaterialsinnovationistheresultofthemessinessofstuff.Openfabbingisoftencomparedtoopen-sourcesoftware,butthefeedstocksforopen-sourcesoftwarewere1sand0s;thefeedstocksforfabbingcouldpotentiallynumberinthehundredsofthousandsofdifferentsubstanceswithavastrangeofphysicalpropertiesandpotentiallytoxicchemicals.

Thesepropertiesarecloselyguardedsecretsandnotwidelyavailabletothepublic.Today,thereisnoequivalentopenrepositoryofmaterialsdatasheets,andthemovementhasnotyetmobilized(orresortedtocreating)itsownmaterials—astrategywe’veseeninopenbioengineeringcommunitiesthathavedeveloped,forexample,theRegistryofStandardBiologicalParts.Untilthisinformationgapisplugged,materialchoicesfor3Dprintingwillbesharplylimited.

extreme customization

Thecombinationofimprovedinterfaces,3Dprintingtechnology,and3Dsoftwarewillunleashanewworldofextremecustomization.IndustrialdesignerScottSummit,co-founderofBespokeInnovations,isusing3Dmodelingandprintingtopioneeranewapproachtothecreationofprostheticlimbs.Summit’scompanyusestheexactshapeandmeasurementofpeople’sbodiestocreatecustomwearables:abackpackforfirefightersthatismoldedindividuallytoeachuser’sbody,oraprostheticlowerlegpreciselymodeledontheshapeoftheother,healthylegandcustom-designedforthewearer.

Wewillalsoseeallkindsofcreativefunproductsderivedfromunique,individualphysicalcharacteristics.Inearly2011,hackerartistsbuilta“BeYourOwnSouvenir”installationonthestreetsofBarcelona.ThreeKinectlightscannerscreatedvolumetricreconstructionsofposesstruckbypassers-by,thenprintedthemon-the-spotwithaRapMan3.13Dprinter.Imagineaworldinwhichyoucouldcaptureanimageofanythingyoudidorsaw,convertittoasoftwaremodel,andsendittoaprinter.

See it, capture it, make it

InChina,theadventofhigh-resolution3Dscanners,andofphotosynthesistechnologythatallowsuserstocreate3Dmodelsoutofmultiplephotosofanobject,offersanotherpathforincreasingtheusabilityofdesktopfabricators.Theabilitytoproducerelativelyhigh-fidelityapproximationsofexistingobjects,whencombinedwiththeabilitytomodifyandrefinedigitaldesignswithinarestrictedsetofparameters,createsanopportunityforfabricatorstorapidlyidentifyanduseobjectsintherealworldasthebasisfortheirparticularnicheneeds.Imagineseeingsomethingyoulike,takingaseriesofphotoswithyourphone,uploadingtoyourcomputer,andaskingittogotoworktocreatea3Ddesignoftheobject.

Indeed,earlyversionsofthistypeoftechnologyalreadyexist.Thing-O-MaticproducerMakerBotIndustriessellsa3Dscannerkitthatallowsfabricatorstocreatesimplewire-framemodelsofobjectsintheirenvironment.Thekitfunctionsby“(1)projectingalineontoanobject,(2)recordingtheline’spositionrelativetoanyflatreference,andthen(3)computingthe3Dgeometrybasedonthosenumbers.”

Personalizedsnap-oncoversforprostheticlimbsareanexampleof

totemicobjects.

Source:BespokeInnovations

26

InChina,3Dtechnologyisbeingusedtocapture,model,andreproducedeterioratingancientBuddhiststatuesfromtheLongshanGrottoes,offeringaglimpseintoanewformofhistoricalpreservation.

Furthermore,recently-releasedTrimensionalsoftwaregivesmobilephoneuserstheabilitytocreate3Dmodelsusingnothingmorethantheirmobilephones,andthenallowsthemtoexportthesemodelsasfileformatsthatcanbeprintedon3Dprinters.Itisonlyamatterofyearsbeforethecomputationalpowerofcloudcomputingwillmakeitpossibleforhigh-resolutionimagesofanyobjectinthebuiltenvironmenttobetransformedintoa3Dprintablemodel.

New blue-collar skills

EconomistPaulKrugmanrecentlyarguedthatacollegeeducationisnolongeraguarantorofeconomicsuccess,asautomationandoffshoringofmanywhite-collarjobsreducesdemandforcollegegraduates.Buttheriseofopenfabrication,andagrowingbodyof“tinkerers,”assciencefictionwriterDavidBrincallsthem,maychartapathtoare-invigoratedbluecollarworkforcewieldingsophisticatednewskills.AsKrugmanargues:

“Mostofthemanuallaborstillbeingdoneinoureconomyseemstobeofthekindthat’shardtoautomate.Notably,withproductionworkersinmanufacturingdowntoabout6%ofU.S.employment,therearen’tmanyassembly-linejobslefttolose.”

IfKrugmanisright,openfabricationcouldbeapowerfulgrowthaccelerantforastablebaseofnon-routinemanufacturingjobs.RatherthanbeingaHailMarypasstosaveAmericanindustryasweknowit,openfabricationwillbethenextstageofitsevolution.

Fromapublicpolicyperspective,thisstronglypointstowardtheneedfortrainingin3Ddesignandprinting.Indeed,inarecentreportcommissionedbytheU.S.OfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,thetopfiverecommendationstothegovernmentwereallfocusedonbeefingupsupport,curriculum,andfacilitiestoteachdesignandmanufacturinginpublicschoolsandregionalmanufacturingclusters.

Fromalargerculturalperspective,manufacturingitselfisenjoyingaresurgenceinthepubliceye.Chrysler’s“ThisistheMotorCity,thisiswhatwedo”Superbowladin2011,whichstarredDetroitrapperEminem,receivedacclaimfromcriticsandfansalike.Tagline:“ImportedfromDetroit.”

TheMakerBotCyclops3DScannerallowsfabricatorstomakewire-

framemodelsofobjects.

Source:Makerbot.com

DavidBrin’ssciencefictionnovelTinkerersdescribesafuture

renaissanceoffabricationskills.

Source:DavidBrin



Community workshops, not personal desktops

Giventhesetofrawmaterials,designskills,andmanufacturingcapabilitiesthatarerequiredforanindividualtoharnessthepowerofa3Dprinter,wedonotthinkitlikelythatinthenexttenyearstherewillbeapersonal3Dprinterineveryhouse.Housingthematerialsaloneissomethingthatmanyeco-awarehouseholdswouldshyawayfrom.Amorerealisticpossibilityforthedistributionof3Dprinterswouldbetohousethemincommunityresourcecenterssuchasschools,smallbusinesses,andcommunity“fablabs.”Thesephysicallocationscouldserveasrepositoriesforadiversearrayofmaterials,user-generateddesigns,andresourcesforhelpingfabricatorscreateandmodify3Dmodels.

Afeworganizations,includingTechShopinMenloPark,California,andtheWeb-based100KGaragesarealreadystartingtoimplementthesepossibilities.Theyandsimilarfirmswillexpandtheirroleinthecommunity,actingaspartworkshop,library,parttoolshed,andpartcoffeeshop.PeoplewhohavepurchasedthelatestIKEAprintableMålmolampdesignonline,forexample,willbeabletocomeheretomakeafewcustomizationsinconsultationwiththeirneighborhooddesignexpert.Perhapstheywillshortentheheightofthelampshadeorexpandthediameterofthebasebeforeprintingouttheirownuniqueversionoftheproducttotakehome.

10 to 10,000: the sweet spot for 3d printing

Thesweetspotfor3Dprintingislikelytofallsomewherebetweenone-offcreationofuniqueobjectsandmassproduction:shortrunsof10to10,000units.Thisisbecause3Dprintingisnotcost-competitiveforsingleobjectsvshandcraftedproduction,norisitsoforcreatingthemassivenumberofstandardizedpartsthatthemoderneconomyrelieson—forinstance,nuts,bolts,andscrewsofuniformsizeandquality.

Anexampleofthismodelcurrentlyexistsformanyelectronicsgoods.Sincemanycomponentssuchascircuitboardshaveperiodicdemandthatdoesn’tnecessarilyrequirethescaleofcentralizedmassproductionandglobaldistribution,specializedtoolshavebeendevelopedthatallowsmallbusinessestocreateversionsofcentrallydesignedcomponentsinrelativelysmallbatches.

Similarly,theremaybeanopportunityforlocalbusinessestoactasthefabricationanddistributionhubsforprofessionallydesignedobjectsthathavesporadicdemand.Thesehubswouldbenefitfromprovidingofficiallycertifiedversionsofbrand-designedobjects,avoidingqualitycontrolissuesthatmightotherwisebeassociatedwithhome3Dprinting.

Theglobalsuccessofshanzhaiproductssuggeststhatconsumersarehungryforthingstheycan’talwaysafford—andthatmanyareevenwillingtobuynon-brandedproductsiftheymeettheirneeds.Wherepricepointsarecreatingunder-servedmarkets,expectnewmicro-manufacturerstojumpinwithlocallyrelevantproductsthatcanbemademorequicklyandforfarlessoverheadthanthoseproducedandmarketedbylargecompanies.

TechShopsmayserveasthecopyshopsofthefuturefor

3Dprinting.

Source:FlickruserSolsken

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multi-purpose, safer materials

Thefutureofopenfabricationwilllargelybedeterminedbythematerialsthatareusedby3Dprinting.Machinescurrentlycannotuseadifferentiatedfeedstock—thatis,theycanonlyprintonetypeofmaterial,oronetypeofmaterialatatime—andthusthetypeofobjectthatcanbeprintedislimited.

Onepossiblefuturethatwouldobviatethematerialsconstraintwouldbethedevelopmentofcarbonprintingtechnology.Currentexperimentationwithcarbonnanotubesadditivemanufacturinghintsattherevolutionarypotentialofthistypeofprinting.Sincecarboncanbeconfiguredinallotropesrangingfromsuper-softgraphitetoultra-harddiamond,theresultingcreationscouldtakeonanynumberofcomplexshapes.Asaresult,theseobjectswouldhavemuchgreaterutilitythanthecurrentplastic-onlymodels—perhapscombiningcarbonfiberanddiamondtoproduceextremelyresilientandintricateworksofart.

Alargeconcernwithcurrentplastic-basedprintingisthatthecommonplasticmaterialsused—notablyABS(acrylonitrilebutadienestyrene)—arenotparticularlybeneficialtohumanhealth.Producingplasticobjectsmayinduceconcernsabouthealthandsafetyfactors(especiallyifmaterialsprintedareusedforkids’toysorforobjectsthatcomeintocontactwithfood).Incontrast,carbon-basedobjectswouldnotbesubjecttothesamescrutiny.

maker culture meets the web

TheDIYcultureoftheMakermovementthatweforecastthreeyearsagohasbenefitedgreatlyfromusingtheWebasaknowledgesharingandsocialcommunicationmedium.However,WebplatformsattheheartoftheMakermovement,suchasInstructables,arenothighlystructuredintermsofhowtheyshareinformationaboutproductionandtools.Asaresult,we’venotyetseenthesophisticateddistributedformsofhighlystructuredcollaborationasweseeroutinelyinopen-sourcesoftware,forinstance.

ThedevelopmentoflibrariesanddatastandardsforencodingmanufacturingspecificationsandsharingthemelectronicallywillbringWebscaletotheopenfabricationmovement.Thiswavewillbedrivenbyprojectssuchasskdb,whichdescribesitselfasan“apt-getforhardware,”comparingitselftoacriticalpieceofLinuxsoftwareusedtodistributesourcecodeandmachineinstructionsforcompilingitintoworkingsoftware.Forobjects,suchadatapackagewouldconsistof3DCADmodels,abillofmaterials,andfabricationinstructions.ThiscommondatastructurewillbringanewlevelofinteroperatilibyanduniversalitytotheMakermovement.

global crowdsourced micromanufacturing

China’sshanzhaimanufacturingnetworksarepoisedtorespondtothedesignsand3Dprototypesoftherestoftheworld’sfabricatorentrepreneurs.Overthenextdecadewewillseethegrowthofanewkindofproductdevelopmentwheredesignerscreatethingstomatchthetastesofsmall-scalemarketsanduseChinesemanufacturingtorampupproductioninafewweeksormonths.

TaketherecentexampleofTikTokandLunatikMulti-touchWatchKits,aprojectdreamedupbyAmericandesignerScottWilson.Wilsonwantedtomakeawell-

Eightallotropesofcarbon:(a)diamond,(b)graphite,(c)Lonsdaleite,(d)C60

(Buckminsterfullereneorbuckyball),(e)C540,(f)C70,(g)

amorphouscarbon,and(h)single-walledcarbonnanotube

orbuckytube.

Source:Wikipedia



designed,well-engineeredwatchstrapthatwouldholdtheiPodNano.HepostedavideodescriptiononthecrowdsourcedfundingsiteKickstarter,askingfor$15,000.Donorswereurgedto“beapartofmakingacoolproductthatnooneelsewouldtaketheriskon.”TheproductbecameKickstarter’sbiggestsuccesstodate,attracting13,512backerswhopledgednearlyamilliondollarsinsupport,injust30days.

Justliketheshanzhaimakers,Wilsonhadsoldhisproductbeforehemadeit.Andliketheshanzhai,hereliedonChina’sinnovativemanufacturingnetworkstoproducehisfinalproducts,closingonadealtomanufacture200,000watchbandswithin60daysofreceivingfunds.WilsonpostedvideosofhistriptoShanghaiforbackerstowatchthemanufacturingprocesscloseup.

Shanzhai design grows up

Aswehaveshown,China’sshanzhaimakerscanrespondtoevolvingconsumerneedsmorequicklythananymanufacturingsystemintheworld.Whiletheshanzhaidon’thavetheskillstocreatenewtechnologies,theyaretop-of-classinabsorbingnewproducts,iteratingsmallprocessinnovations,andbuildingoutadizzyingvarietyofnewdesigns.Whenanewproductordesignlooksgoodtoawholesaler,itisproducedinsmallbatchesandquicklyreplicatedifitcatcheson.

Currentlythereisadistinctlackofskilled3Dmodelersintheshanzhaisector.Asindustrialdesignsoftwarebecomesmorepowerfulanduser-friendly,however,Chineseprogrammersanddesignerswillskillup.NewdesignswillbefunneledintotheChinesenetworkviathegrowthofcollaborativemicromanufacturingrelationshipsbetweenfabricatorentrepreneursintheWestandChinesemakersintheEast.AndChineseentrepreneurswillbegintotakeadvantageoftheopendesignlibrariesnowbeingdeveloped,toproducetheirowngoods.

Localdesigntasteswillbegintobeaccessibletodesignersaroundtheworld,whowilliterate,improve,andexpandthemtocreatedesignmash-upsatagreaterscalethanwe’veyetseen.Theprocessinnovationsthatnowdrivetheconstantevolutionofshanzhainetworkswillslowlybecomedesigninnovations,makingboththeshanzhaiandChina’slegitimatemanufacturersmoresuccessfulontheworldmarket.

Tissue printing

Advancesincomputingoverthelastquartercenturywerethekeytounlockingthescienceoflife.Futuregenerationsarelikelytoviewbioinformaticsasthemostimportantandfar-reachingapplicationforcomputing.WhiletheWebandsocialmediaallowourcivilizationtoevolveinnewways,computationalbiologyisallowingustoredefinelifeitself.Youcouldsaythatdoingbiologyiswhatcomputingwasmeantfor,inthegrandschemeofhumanhistory—everyotherusewasjustafootnote.

Inasimilarvein,3Dprintingusingbiomaterialswillallowustoproducelivingtissuecheaply,cleanly,andefficiently,transformingthewaywethinkoforganisms,bodies,andfood.

Inthatsense,thecurrentwaveofexperimentationandinnovationaround3Dprintingwithinorganicmaterialsmayjustbeatransitionalphase.It’smerelyastepping-stonethatultimatelyservestocreateacadreoftechnicalimprovementsthatinnovatorswho

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understandthistechnologycanapplytolifescienceinthefuture.We’llneedbiologiststobecomeasgoodatusing3Dprintingasmanyaretodayatcomputing.

Inthisview,3Dprintingusinginorganicmaterialsisactuallyquitedull—therearealimitedrangeofapplicationswhereitmakesmoresensethantraditionalmanufacturing,whichisalreadyhighlyevolvedafteracentury.Buttissueproductionmust,bynecessity,alwaysbebespoke.Everyoneofthe6,000liverstransplantedintheUnitedStateseachyear,ifproducedusing3Dstemcellprinting,wouldhavetobecustomized.There’snootherwaytodoit.

wild card: self-replication

Overthelongerterm,self-replicationisanotherintriguingpossibility.Ifaprinter,orperhapsacombinationofprinters,weretoachievethematerialfacilitynecessarytoprintmultiplereplicasofitsownelectronicandphysicalcomponentswithrelativelysimpleuserinvolvement,theresultcouldbeamanufacturingphenomenoncommonlyfoundinbiologybutneverbeforeachievedbyhumanproduction—geometricexpansion.

ThisistheexplicitaimoftheRepRapproject,anopen-sourceefforttoproduceaself-replicatingprinterforhomeuse.WhileRepRapislikelyasignalofthepossibilityhereratherthanafulfillmentofit,theimplicationsareeye-opening.Ifsuccessful,digitalfabricationcapabilitieswouldnaturallytendtowardubiquity,muchascomputinghas.Beyondthis,theprocessoftechnologicalevolutionthatunderliesthematurationofalltechnologieswouldbelogarithmicallyaccelerated.Withinsuchascenario,itisdifficulttoimaginethatdigitalfabricationwouldnotovertaketraditionalmanufacturinginnearlyeverysphereofproduction.

Ultimately,whilethisdevelopmentislikelymuchfurtherthanadecadefromrealization,itshouldnotbedismissedassciencefiction.Proof-of-conceptforthetechnologyofself-replicationalreadyexistsinnature,andwe,alongwithallotherorganisms,areproductsofit.Thisdirectionistheexplicitlonger-termtargetofmuchofthenanotechnologyresearchcurrentlyunderway.

Indeed,thisnaturaltransitiontowardnanofabricationmaybethemostrevealingperspectivefromwhichtoviewthefutureofdigitalfabrication.Whilethenextdecadeislikelytoseerelativelymarginalmaterialandsoftwareimprovements,theseinturnwillhavesubtlefeedbackeffects,nudgingmanufacturingasawholetowardmorerefinedlevelsofmaterialmanipulation.Fromthisperspective,itisonlyamatteroftime—albeitapotentiallylongtime—beforedigitalfabricationtakeshold.

Asmuchasanythingelse,thenextdecadeislikelytolaythegroundworkforsubsequentdevelopmentsandthenearcertaintyoffarmorecriticaladvancestocome.


TakeawayS5

IFTFheldaone-dayworkshopattheAutodeskGalleryinSanFrancisco

onApril19,2011toexploretheimplicationsofthisreportforbusiness

andpolicy innovationover thenextdecade.Thekeytakeawaysfrom

ourconcludingdiscussionsarehighlightedhere.

key obstacles

Thegroupraisedthreetop-levelissuesthatlimitthepotentialgrowthofOpenFabrication.

• Designtoolsremaintoospecialized.Realitycapturetoolsand3Ddesignsoftwareareundergoingconsumerization(seeAutodesk’slatestconsumeroffering,PhotoFly,whichgenerates3Dmodelsfromordinaryphotographsandexportsthemtostandard3Dformatsforfurtherediting),buttheywillneedtobecomemucheasiertouse.Mainstreamaudiencesofeducators,students,artists,andothermakerswillneedmuchmoreuser-friendlytools.(Seeourforecast,DemocratizingIndustrialDesign.)

• Intellectualpropertyframeworksfavorbigplayers.Withoutmoreflexiblestructures,legallyprotectedspacesofinnovationmaybedisincentivestoinnovation.Thepremiseofopennessisthatmoreparticipantsmeanfasterinnovation.Thelegalroleofpatents,copyright,andtrademarksinthemanufacturingsector,atleastindevelopedcountries,willneedtobereinterpreted.(SeeourforecastIP—TheGreatUncertainty/PatentsandInnovation.)

• AGordianknotlimitstheapplicabilityof3Dprinting.Mostproductsareassembliesofvariousparts,andthematerialfeedstocksusedtocreatethemarecomplex.Thematerialsdevelopmentcycleisveryslowfor3Dprintingandthereisareallimittowhatcanbecreatedwithoutsignificantadvancesinmulti-materialprocesses.(Seeourforecast,TheLongNowofMaterials.)

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key opportunities

Afteradayofimmersioninthefutureofopenfabrication,clientshighlightedfourstrategicimplications:

• Openfabricationwillextendthelifeandvalueofaproductovertime.Dynamiclocalaccesstoreplacementpartscoulddovetailwiththedesireformoreresource-lightlifestyles.Thiscouldalsofillthevastneedforreplacementpartsforout-of-productionconsumerelectronics,vehicles,andtools.

• Aworldofopenfabricationwilltransformtheroleoftheretailer.RetailerswillneedtoofferaccesstoamuchwiderrangeofSKUs,andpeoplewillneedmorefilterstomanagelongtailmanufacturedgoods.

• Openfabricationwillenableextremecustomization,creatingmorephysicallynuancedandemotionallymeaningfulgoods.Wewillbeabletopersonalizeourphysicalobjectstoamuchgreaterextent,tyingthemnotsimplytowordsandimagesthataremeaningfultous,buttoourownphysiologiesandactualenvironments.

• Openfabricationoffersnewdevelopmentopportunitiesformanufacturersanddesigners.Thereisagroundswellofinterestintheconvergenceofmanufacturing,design,anddigitaltools,comingfromawidevarietyofcommunities.Today,thesecommunitiesareonlylooselyconnected.Thereisalotofspaceforcompaniestoplayaleadingroleinhelpingtogrowthisconversation,createnewtools,andbuildnewproductsandservices.

TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRam INSTITUTe fOR The fUTURe

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