IFTF’s Technology Horizons program anticipates and illuminates the future forces in science and technology that will

transform how we live, work, and connect with one another in the next decade. We monitor and evaluate scientific

discoveries and social change to understand how they will disrupt or amplify people and networks, institutions and

organizations, and cities and regions over the next 3–10 years.

To help you think systematically about the future, we explore the intersections between technological disruptions, shifts in

human identity and aspiration, and the opportunity and demand for change. It is at this nexus where new needs, desires,

and possibilities become clear. In 2013, join us as we forecast the coming age of networked matter and explore the

interplay of creators, computation, and context to map the new geography of science and technology innovation in maker

cities around the world.

T e c h n o l o g y h o r i z o n s p r o g r a m i n s T i T u T e f o r T h e f u T u r e

conTenTs2013 Research AgendaTechnology Horizons TeamMembership Information

› anTicipaTe The fuTure through our signals and forecasts, and avoid being blindsided by disruptive technologies.

› reduce uncerTainTy by thinking systematically about the future when making decisions about technology, and new product investments.

› idenTify fuTure opporTuniTies for market growth and emerging value propositions, business models, and new forms of competitive advantage.

› exTend your innovaTion reach through the networks and ideas of California’s Silicon Valley, the San Francisco Bay Area, and other innovation hot spots.

› Take The long view and consider a wide range of possibilities by exploring alternative futures with our network of visionaries from industry, academia, and regional collaborative networks.

2 0 1 3 T e c h n o lo g y h o r i z o n s r e s e a r c h a g e n d a

T h e f u T u r e aT T h e i n T e r s e cT i o n o f c r e aTo r s , c o n T e x T , a n d c o m p u TaT i o n

Science and technology has the power to make and remake society. As Marshall McLuhan once said, “We shape our tools, and thereafter our tools shape us.” Technology can profoundly improve society and our quality of life, but it often creates more uncertainty, leading to massive disruption. At the same time, it raises the stakes of the choices we make and the roles we play in our communities and organizations.

IFTF’s approach to technology forecasting takes a holistic approach to understanding the three factors that shape innovation:

› creaTors New groups, individuals, and even non-human agents are driving advances in how things are made, how processes are designed, and how innovation is achieved. These creators and makers are leveraging open software and systems, lowered barriers to entry, and new crowdfunding models to democratize technology, tinker with what already exists, push the limits of what’s possible, and accelerate innovation. What drives these creators? What influences their ideas about how technology can and should be used? What social and organizational factors drive, or limit, their maker mindset? What new forms of collaboration and what collaboration tools connect and empower them globally? How are the demographics, identities, and kinds of roles people play in innovation changing?

› conTexT All technological advancements are a product of certain conditions, but once they are introduced into the world, these technologies can create new contexts and conditions that amplify or disrupt people’s lives at home, in communities, and in organizations. Economic and funding factors, political and regulatory climates, energy and power systems, intellectual property regimes, culture and aesthetics, and many other factors dramatically influence the course of any new technology. Indeed, for technology forecasting to add value, we must consider these often subtle and complex conditions, and avoid missing the trajectory and speed of change. What are the larger contextual factors shaping the demand for new technologies? What urgent problems or challenges are their creators responding to? What resources and constraints support and accelerate the pace of invention and innovation? How do ecosystems of technology and users interact to shape future possibilities?

› compuTaTion Computing power is growing rapidly and becoming near pervasive in the tools, interactions, and environments that shape and give meaning to our everyday lives. Computation, whether contained in our computing devices, or embedded in living and non-living entities in the world, is driving a new way of understanding and interacting with things and with each other. Computation may be changing itself, as biocomputers using DNA, quantum computers, and non-traditional “smart devices” emerge from the laboratory. Computation provides the opportunity to re-program the world to achieve desired outcomes, to coordinate and move things around us, to manage the flood of digital information washing over us, and to navigate the blended reality of our lives. Indeed, the proliferation of cheap, embedded, and networked computation is perhaps this century’s greatest technological transformation. And it’s only just begun. What new paradigms of computation are on the horizon? What previously intractable information processing challenges will yield to these new paradigms? How are new forms and theories of computation driving broader shifts in fundamental social, scientific, and technological frameworks?

c r e aTo r s , c o n T e x T , a n d c o m p u TaT i o n

This year, we will explore the future of science and technology within a framework of these three factors that are inextricably linked to the story of innovation. We will tease out the transformations and disruptions at the intersection of creators, context, and computation. Through a series of open forecasting events, client meetings, and research deliverables, the Technology Horizons program looks forward to immersing you in its forecasts by sharing ideas, practices, and connections through interactive experiences.

2 0 1 3 r e s e a r c h a g e n d a

flickr user: placboflickr user: blprnt

2 0 1 3 r e s e a r c h a g e n d a

s p r i n g › The age of neTworked maTTer: how inTerconnecTing everyThing will Transform our world

An astounding array of everyday objects—from food to furniture, from buses to bodies—are becoming connected and interconnected. As we’ve shown in previous research, the virtual and real are melding into a blended reality, novel tools for “programming” our world are on the horizon, and new species of robots will move out of the laboratory and into our cities, offices, homes, and schools. The culmination of this transformation will be a reignited revolution in networked computation, much like we saw at the dawn of the web—but this time it will be atoms rather than just bits. Myriad forms of matter are moving onto the network beyond even the most grandiose visions of an “Internet of Things,” from objects that blog to social networks for robots, the secret language of cellular communication we don’t yet understand to the possibility of hardwired “telepathy” between people. In this foundational forecast, we will look at the emerging technologies in computation, sensing and actuation, wireless, materials science, and even biology that will underpin the coming Age of Networked Matter. We will interact with creators that are not only advancing how things are made but are moving us closer and closer into this age as they reimagine and reinvent the context and meaning of their lives whether it is their home, work, community, or even their own bodies.

d e l i v e r a B l e s

› forecasT map: The map will forecast the new age of networked matter, identifying the transformations and disruptions at the intersection of creators, context, and computation.

› conference: Join us for an open and collaborative two-day experience to immerse yourself in the forecasts, identify strategic insights for you and your organization, get hands-on practice with emerging tools, and engage with a network of technology innovators, may 16-17, 2013, cavallo point, sausalito, ca.

2 0 1 3 r e s e a r c h a g e n d a

neonnotes.orgflickr user: speedoflife

fa l l › m a k e r c i T i e s : T h e n e w g e o g r a p h y o f s c i e n c e a n d T e c h n o lo gy i n n ovaT i o n

Cities have always captured our imagination; they are the nexus where ideas, people, and future possibilities come together. Whether they are imagined as high tech metropolises, models of ecological sustainability, or platforms for the sharing economy, cities are where we are making the future.

What is a Maker City? Maker Cities are the hubs where the interplay of creators, context, and computation accelerates future possibilities. Whether makers are tinkering at the fringes of society or are embraced as part of its economic and regional advantage, every city has makers in it. But the real question is: how pervasive is the maker mindset and what are they making? Cities contain innovation milieus shaped by their unique social, cultural, economic, and urban conditions that drive local creativity, playfulness, desire, and aspiration for change. Whether they are defining new forms of collaboration and knowledge creation, or providing the platforms to mix and remix the tools of biology and life sciences, or pioneering new ways to live in the age of networked matter, maker cities are where people are inspired to change and remake the world around them.

Indeed, there is a new geography of science and technology innovation emerging in Maker Cities all over the world. This summer and fall, IFTF will begin an ongoing, on-the-ground exploration of Maker Cities. We’ll start this exploration by embedding IFTF in different Maker Cities and hosting 48-hour collaborative forecasting events to map the disruptions and innovations that will shape the next decade of science and technology. We’ll look beyond new inventions and incremental change, to identify the advances that will have far-reaching implications for people, organizations, and society.

d e l i v e r a B l e s

› aTlas of maker ciTies: A map of the new geography of science and technology innovation emerging from Maker Cities around the world. The atlas will include a map of future possibilities and hotspots emerging from the interplay of creators, context, and computation, and a set of forecast perspectives and tools for deeper immersion and strategic action.

› clienT meeTing: Invite us to your location in Fall 2013. Technology Horizons will present its 2013 forecasts and facilitate a Foresight to Insight to Action session with you and your colleagues to identify the opportunities and disruptions for your organization and markets.

2 0 1 3 r e s e a r c h T e a mrod falcon, Program Director

Rod currently leads IFTF’s Technology Horizons team. With a deep background in public health pol-icy, he has served in several different capacities at IFTF since 1995, including leading the Global Food Outlook and Health Horizons programs and direct-ing research for the Technology Horizons Program. In the course of his work, Rod speaks to executive audiences and helps them find innovative strategies

for participating in the global economy. Rod’s research focus areas have included personal health technologies, communication and mes-saging practices in the workplace and home, social networks and abundant connectivity, and health-aware environments.

Born in Oakland, California, in a time and place of great social change, Rod attended nearby UC Berkeley to better understand what was happening. There he earned a BA in American history and a master’s of public policy. After working one summer enforcing the Voting Rights Act for the Justice Department, Rod realized that public policy was not as future oriented as it might be and was inspired to do something about it. He came to IFTF to forecast the future of the California health care safety net and ended up staying on.

Brinda dalal, Research Director

Brinda serves as a Research Director for IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program. Her research focuses on how people intersect with networked things in increasingly global environments. Using foresight and ethnographic studies, she helps orga-nizations to successfully design technologies and strategies in response to people’s changing aspira-tions, expectations, and practices around the world.

In addition to her work at IFTF, Brinda serves as the president of Dhoopa Ventures LLC, a company that manages rapid, high-quality research in emerging and high tech markets to discover upstream innovation opportunities in the three to five year time frame. Prior to Dhoopa, Brinda worked as a research scientist at the Palo Alto Research Center, where she cofounded the Clean Technology Initiative, and helped to build an ethnographic competency within Xerox Global Services. Brinda obtained a PhD and MPhil in Social Anthropology from the University of Cambridge.

Jake dunagan, Research Director

Jake’s research examines the role of emerging technologies in transforming identity, culture, and governance. His recent research has focused on the social, legal, and political implications of neuroscience, exploring many aspects of life in the neurocentric age. His other specializations include the future of justice and the courts, alternative energies, and media. He has also been leading

explorations into new methods for the public communication of foresight, including experiential futures, digital stories, immersive scenarios, and ethical spectacles.

Jake received his PhD at the Manoa School of Futures Studies where he studied neuropolitics, futures theories and methods (including alternative futures), and futures public engagement strategies. He received an MA from Temple University, and a BA from Auburn University, both in Visual Anthropology. His master’s thesis, “Alternatives in Anthropological Communication: Ethnographic Surrealism and Fake Documentary,” examined cultural representation and the role of media conventions in the construction of truth.

devin fidler, Research Director

Devin’s interests center on the application of foresight to organizational strategy and strategic planning. He is interested in organizations as systems designed to activate “know how” in the right places and at the right times; he argues that in a post-globalization world “all management is knowledge management.” Additional areas of focus include energy advances, future supply chains,

innovation economics, and emerging business models.

Prior to joining IFTF, he was involved with a number of projects in the areas of technology assessment and the future of business, including work in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Research and Analysis Center and as an Analyst for the Royal Bank of Scotland in Edinburgh. He has lived and worked in several countries throughout his career and approaches projects from a strongly international perspective.

Devin undertook his MBA work with a focus in emerging markets at the Budapest University of Economics and the Institut des Hautes Etudes Economiques et Commerciales in Paris, and participated in the inau-gural class of Singularity University, a NASA and Google sponsored program focused on the evaluation of emerging technologies.

Tracey grose, Research Director

Tracey possesses a deep curiosity for how technology shapes economic and social change. Change is the only constant, and better understanding how our economy, tools, and social lives are transforming offers a glimpse into potential paths to the future. Tracey’s past work has shed new light on the clean energy economy, innovation systems, and growing global linkages.

Currently, she is building platforms for engaging regional groups of public and private sector stakeholders with futures thinking. Tracey is also developing a new initiative, The Next Curve: Shifting to the New Energy Economy. This initiative will track early signals of change in technology, public policy, and behavior, and will include interactive web tools for tracking progress and targeting action on achieving economic and environmental gains.

Jill kordus, Research Manager

Jillian comes to us with an MA in applied anthropol-ogy from San Jose State University and a BA in cultural anthropology from University of New Hampshire. Prior to joining IFTF, she spent a year as an Americorps volunteer teaching afterschool enrichment programs to K-5th graders. Jillian’s past experience includes working as a Paralegal in the areas of class action employment and construc-

tion litigation and as an Operations Manager for a San Francisco-based mobile app development startup.

mike liebhold, Distinguished Fellow

Mike is a Distinguished Fellow focusing on the mobile web, abundant computation, immersive media, and geospatial foundations for context-aware and ubiquitous computing. Previously, Mike was a Visiting Researcher, Intel Labs, working on a pattern language based on semantic web frameworks for ubiquitous computing. In the late 1990s Mike worked on startups building large scale

international public IT services and IP networks for rural and remote regions, and for GPS enhanced precision agriculture, a complete IT architecture for schools in Shandong Province China, satellite networks in India, Europe, and Latin America, and was a Principal Investigator for a National Science Foundation project to bring Internet2 broadband IP networks to seventy rural low income communities in the United States.

2 0 1 3 r e s e a r c h T e a m

scott minneman, Research Affiliate

Scott is an engineer and designer, working at the intersection of physical computing, emerging technologies, and storytelling. He spent 15 years in corporate research at Xerox PARC, teaches Interaction Design at California College of the Arts, and co-founded Onomy Labs, an interdisciplinary studio that creates novel, hands-on, public interactives. Scott’s degrees are in Architecture and

Mechanical Engineering, from MIT and Stanford. He holds a dozen or so US patents, several Interactive Media awards from ID Magazine, and is committed to making delightful technologies.

sean ness, Director of Business Development

At IFTF, Sean oversees business development, with a focus on the Technology Horizons and Ten-Year Forecast programs. He looks for creative ways to interact with outside organizations and works tire-lessly to keep IFTF’s client database accurate and up to date. He also hosts monthly potlucks so that the IFTF crew can get to know each other better.

From 2006 to 2009, Sean was a co-founder of the STIRR Network, a group that helped catalyze early-stage entrepreneurial activity in Silicon Valley and beyond. He has previously worked at Forrester Research and ComputerWire. Sean holds a BS in Polymer Science from Penn State University, with a minor in Chemistry. During the week, Sean is connected to work 24/5, but he keeps the weekends for himself. That is when he pursues his favorite hobby, wine collecting.

david pescovitz, Research Director

David is co-editor and managing partner of the popular blog BoingBoing.net and also editor-at-large for MAKE magazine. Pescovitz co-wrote the book Reality Check (HardWired, 1996), based on his long-running futurist column in Wired magazine. He has also written for Scientific American, Popular Science, New York Times, Washington Post, Salon, and New Scientist, among many other publications.

In 2002, he won the Foresight Prize in Communication, recognizing excellence in educating the public and research community about nanotechnology and other emerging technologies. David holds a Bachelor of Fine Arts in Electronic Media from the University of Cincinnati and a master’s in Journalism from UC Berkeley.

Jason Tester, Director of Human-Future Interaction

Jason focuses on three areas: research into how people use emerging technologies, the application of design to futures research, and facilitating groups to stimulate insights and implications about the future. He strives to look beneath the surface of society and its artifacts for hidden layers of meaning.

Jason has long been interested in researching and designing the ways people interact with technology,

expertise he brought to IFTF’s ongoing effort to broaden the ways in which its findings are visualized and presented. He developed one of IFTF’s current methodologies called “artifacts from the future.” Most recently, he has been interested in moving futures thinking out of think tanks and into the street by developing a platform called human–future interaction. Such a platform is designed to make futures thinking part of daily life by using immersive experiences and new media tools to provoke and capture citizens’ thoughts about the future.

Jason holds a BS in human–computer interaction design from Stanford, and a master’s from the Interaction Design Institute in Ivrea, Italy.

nicole Tindall, Program Coordinator

As Program Coordinator for Technology Horizons, Nicole works closely with the team to coordinate research deliverables, facilitate project planning, and manage logistics. Driven to find more efficient, sustainable, and innovative solutions to make the world a better place to thrive, Nicole hopes to help catalyze paradigm shifts through leveraging the human spirit, research, and communication to

positively influence the future. Prior to joining IFTF, Nicole provided marketing and project coordination support in the green building design field focusing on Net Zero Energy Buildings. Nicole holds degrees in International Business, Studio Art, and Energy Management and Climate Policy. Her general interests include: human-technology interaction, the maker movement and sharing economy, art + design, social innovation, community and systems ecologies, and human happiness.

anthony Townsend, Research Director

Anthony’s research focus is on the impact of new technology on cities and public institutions, and the role of technology in economic development. He is actively involved in urban planning and economic development organizations around the world and has served on mayoral municipal broadband advi-sory boards in both New York City and San Francisco. Anthony was a Visiting Scholar at New

York University’s Rudin Center for Transportation Policy, where he directed research sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Homeland Security prior to joining IFTF in 2005. He was a Fulbright Exchange Scholar at the Seoul Development Institute in South Korea in 2004, and co-founded NYCwireless, a pioneer in the municipal wireless movement. Anthony holds a PhD in urban and regional planning from MIT, a master’s in urban planning from New York University, and a BA in urban studies with a minor in physics from Rutgers.

nicolas weidinger, Research Assistant

Upon graduating from design school at Ohio State University, Nicolas co-founded Cobego, an industrial design startup that specializes in making ideas come to life. In the summer of 2011, he moved to San Francisco to expand his horizons and to participate in the IFTF intership program and never left. Now Nicolas spends his time developing Artifacts from the Future and investigating novel

technologies/experiences. Outside of IFTF, he enjoys playing video games, tinkering with matter replicators, and designing an underwater research facility.

p r o g r a m m e m B e r s(partial list)

AB InBev

AT&T

Autodesk

BBVA

General Motors

Hallmark Cards

Hershey

Humana

Institute for Information Industry

Intel

Intuit

National Intelligence Council

Nissan

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Procter & Gamble Company

Scripps Networks Interactive

Siemens

Swisscom

Tekes

p r o g r a m c o s T

The Technology Horizons program is an ongoing, cost-shared research effort. Each member pays $65,000 per year. Membership includes attendance at its annual cross-industry conference, print copies of all program deliverables, and electronic access to the Technology Horizons program member-only website.

a B o u T T h e i n s T i T u T e fo r T h e f u T u r e

The Institute for the Future is an independent, nonprofit strategic research group with more than 40 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. We provide our members with insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Our research spans a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from health and health care to technology, the workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the Future is based in Palo Alto, CA.

B e c o m e a m e m B e r To day

For more information about the Institute for the Future

please visit our web site at www.iftf.org or contact:

sean ness at 650-233-9517 or sness@iftf.org

124 University Ave., 2nd Floor, Palo Alto, CA 94301 650.854.6322 | www.iftf.org

Cover images: IFTF | NASA