Technologies & policies for a sustainable energy future keynote by dr. marilyn brown
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Transcript of Technologies & policies for a sustainable energy future keynote by dr. marilyn brown
Marilyn Brown
Professor of Energy Policy
Georgia Institute of Technology
Technologies and Policies for a Sustainable Energy Future
Memphis and Shelby County
Sustainability Summit
June 26, 2013
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From the global…
…to the local
Emerging Economies will Increasingly Steer
Global Energy Markets
Global energy demand will rise by one-third over the next 25 years.
Rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East are driving
the increase.
Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook.
Share of Global Energy Demand
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U.S.
19% U.S.
13%
U.S.
30%
Many Countries Will Increase their Oil and
Gas Import Dependency, but not the US
The US may become a major oil and gas exporter.
What will be the fate of alternative energy?
Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook.
3
The Door is Closing on 450 ppm CO2 (or a 2°C Rise in Global Temperatures)
Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions of the 450
Scenario are already “locked-in” by existing capital stock
Source: International Energy Agency. 2011. World Energy Outlook.
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Scenario
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In the Southeast, Annual Average Temperature
Has Risen about 2°F since 1970
Accelerated warming is forecast for the Southeast.
Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/southeast.pdf
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Energy Footprints and GDP
Source: Energy Information Administration
Japan
U.S.
Russia
U.K.
China
South
Korea
Australia
6
US Energy Efficiency (The Blue Wedge):
The Largest Energy Resource Since 1973-74
The Energy Efficiency of the US Economy Has Improved
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Qu
ad
s o
f T
ota
l P
rim
ar
y E
ne
rg
y Energy Service
Demand
Actual Energy Supply
1970 Energy Demand
Energy Service Demand Adjusted for Imports
Source: Skip Laitner & Steve Nadel, ACEEE, 2012.
Opportunities for US Energy Efficiency
Improvements Abound
Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must
be invested to implement energy-savings.
Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009. 8
Policies are Needed to Deliver Efficiency
US Supply Curve for Electricity Efficiency Resources
Source: Wang & Brown, 2013 9
The Impact of Affluence and Cheap Energy:
A Rebound Effect?
“Now that we have a heat pump, we can
afford a plasma TV and lots of lighting.”
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You Can’t Manage what you Can’t Measure
Many meters allow frequent data
collection and bi-directional
communication:
Enables dynamic pricing
Can interface with in-home or in-office
displays of online consumption information
ZigBee Rate saver
Google Power Meter
Energy Orbs signal
expensive & inexpensive
times to use energy
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Automatic Home Temperature Adaptation
• Contains sensors for temperature,
humidity, activity, light
• Controlled through rotating ring on outside
and pushing on the front (á la iPod)
• Automatically learns user behavior
• Doesn’t heat/cool when no one is home
• WiFi-enabled; control from computer, cell
phone
• Detailed usage summaries available
online
• $250 before installation; available directly
from Nest and Amazon, Apple Store, Best
Buy, Lowe’s, Home Depot,…
Nest thermostat
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EIA forecasts that non-hydro renewable generation will triple by 2040,
with wind, biomass, and solar dominating.
Source: EIA, 2013
Non-hydro renewable generation
(billion kWh/year)
The US Green Economy is Progressing, But What
about the Bonanza of Cheap Natural Gas?
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≈5%
≈12%
States with Renewable Electricity Standards
Source: Brown and Sovacool. 2011. Fig. 7.4
Distributed generation (wind, solar, CHP…): Promising alternatives to central generation
Regulatory barriers
Input-based emissions standards
Grid access difficulties,…
Financial barriers
Access to credit and project competition within firms
Purchase power agreements,…
Information and workforce barriers
Workforce engineering know-how,…
CHP
Power Plant
Boiler
ELECTRICITY
HEAT
Traditional System
CHP System
45- 49%
75- 80%
Efficiency Efficiency
Policy options are available to tackle these barriers.
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Each GW of installed CHP capacity creates and maintains ≈2,000-3,000
full-time equivalent jobs throughout the lifetime of the system.
The Job Generation Benefits of Expanding Industrial Cogeneration
Job Coefficients by Sector (Jobs per Million of Expenditures, in $2009)
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14.5
19.8
6.6 5.7
7.4
15.5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
CHP Constructionand Installation
CHP Operation &Maintenance-Non
Fuel
Natural Gas Electricity Coal & Petroleum Re-spending ofUtility Bill Savings
Induced
Impact
Construction &
Installation
Operation &
Maintenance
Energy
Production
(Natural Gas)
Myths can be Powerful Tools for Sustaining the Status Quo
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”
-- Mark Twain
Illuminate energy myths and misperceptions
understand the belief systems that underpin them
explain the region’s private investments and public policies and foster productive public debate.
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Results 16
Most of this analysis is discussed in a 2012 article:
Myth 1: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Themselves Cannot Meet the South’s Growing Electricity Demand.
“With no readily available economic alternatives on the horizon, fossil fuels will continue to supply most of the world’s energy needs for the foreseeable future.”
-- Lee Raymond, Former CEO of
ExxonMobil, 1997
“….people are going to find ways to use energy more efficiently …. But don’t count on them using less energy….”
-- John Tireney New York Times, 2o11
Fact: EE can offset the increase in future electricity demand in the South.
Energy Consumption in
Residential/Commercial/Industrial Sectors in the
South
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Myth 2: The South does not have sufficient renewable energy resources to meet a Federal Renewable Electricity Standard.
“Georgia simply doesn’t have the wind, solar or biomass resources required to meet proposed new federal regulations for renewable energy generation.”
-- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2009
“We can't meet the targets in the Southeast.”
-- Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina (The New York Times, 2010)
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Reference RES RE+RES EERE+RES
Bil
lio
n k
Wh
Non-Renewable Renewables
12%
28% 27%
22%
Fact: With coordinated EE and RE policies, the South could comply with an RES goal without a rate penalty.
Renewable Resources as a Percentage of Electricity Generation in the South in 2030
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Grounds for Optimism
• Most of the 2050 physical plant is not yet built – with
growth comes opportunity.
• Natural gas and renewables could be mutually
supportive.
• Our economy could profit from an EE “makeover” so
that we can export gas to foreign markets willing to
pay a premium for it.
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Grounds for Optimism
• Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced &
regulated in certain markets – these “market signals”
will spur innovation and “low-carbon” energy
decisions.
• Our current energy system could be made much more
efficient – creating jobs and reducing imports, while
also reducing GHG emissions and water consumption.
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For More Information
Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor
Georgia Institute of Technology
School of Public Policy
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
Climate and Energy Policy Lab:
http://www.cepl.gatech.edu
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