Rutmanee Ongsakul (AIT/CPWF-Mekong) Sonali Senaratna Sellamuttu (IWMI/CPWF-Mekong)
Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)
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Transcript of Technological change as driver and response (CPWF GD workshop, September 2011)
Boru Douthwaite
Technological Change as Driver and Response
Two parts
Technological change as both driver and response
What Basin Teams should know?
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Technological change is both driver and response
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Before… and after the project.(Photograph by Olivier Joffre)
Mr. Nguyen Hoang BenAp Lung Chim, Xa Dinh Thanh, Dong Hai.
CRESMIL impact in Vietnam, showing what is possible
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9Xiaowan Dam, China
Technological change as a global driver?
Technological change happens everywhere
Lever of riches
Mokyr –defining feature of successful civilizations (China, Europe)
Technological changes that count as global drivers
Information revolution
Brainstorming ......
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What drives technology change in agriculture?
1 kWhr costs 10 cents
1 person can work continuously at 30 W
33 hrs to earn 10 cents?
Substituting fossil for human power drives TC in ag
US agriculture uses 45 times more energy than traditional agriculture
Doubling or trebling of energy costs won’t reverse the trend
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Trends versus drivers
Dramatic weather events
Food crisis threaten global security
Impending water wars
Fossil fuels running out
Rising political power of ‘developing nations’
Saving forests makes money
Faith traditions support stewardship
Younger generations demand action
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Technological responses in basins with global relevance
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Brainstorm
Global drivers Demographic, social, economic
Climate change and environmental
Political and institutional
Basins
What basin teams should know
How technological change happens
How research can be used as a lever of technological change
What basin responses / trends (i.e., aggregate behavioural change) have global relevance
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How technological change happens
An emergent property
Of multitude interaction between people going through individual and social learning cycles
An evolutionary process
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Research as lever of technological change
Manage research process to make beneficial emergence more likely
The levers Novelty
Selection
Interaction
Motivation
Reducing uncertainty
Work with partners in spotting early emergence, stabilize and amplify
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Reducing uncertainty
Technically, impossible to predict emergence in complex systems (the equations don’t exist; ones we have sensitive
to small errors in parameterization)
“Uncertainty keeps increasing with the more research money they put in” Pioneer climate scientist Manabe
But ...
Simple predictions possible
Model to better understand the present, system fragilities (tundra), possible future scenarios
Learn from innovation histories, innovation research
Uncertainty leads to polarization17
Basin responses with global relevance
We have the list ...
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