Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report · 2014. 9. 29. · Technical Assistance Consultant’s...
Transcript of Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report · 2014. 9. 29. · Technical Assistance Consultant’s...
Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report
This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design.
Project Number: 43062 April 2012
Bangladesh: Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Sector Coordination Wing of the Planning Commission (Financed by the Technical Assistance Special Fund)
Appendices
Prepared by MMM Group in association with BCL Associates Limited
Vancouver, BC Canada
For Ministry of Planning (Planning Division)
Asian Development Bank
TA 7388‐BANGLADESH Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Coordination
Wing of the Planning Commission, Bangladesh CONTRACT NO: COSO/41‐580
APPENDICES
A
Submitted By
a
in association with
BCL Associates Limited
April 2012
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
LIST OF APPENDIX
Appendix A: The TSGD data catalogue
Appendix B‐1: Roads and Highway (RHD) Organization Structure
Appendix B‐2: Bangladesh Railway (BR) Organization Structure
Appendix B‐3: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) Organization Structure
Appendix B‐4: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Corporation (BIWTC) Organization Structure
Appendix B‐5: Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA) Organization Structure
AppendixB‐6: Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) Organization Structure
Appendix B‐7: Dhaka Transport Coordination Board (DTCB) Organization Structure
Appendix C: 1st Workshop/presentation slides
Appendix D: 2nd Workshop/presentation slides
Appendix E: Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh Railway
Appendix F: Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh IWT
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
Appendix: A The TSGD Data Catalogue
1.1.1.1 Major Rivers of Bangladesh Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Major_River
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer containing the major rivers of Bangladesh. It also
includes the trans-boundary Rivers and rivers having width equal to or above 100m
including BWDB gauge stations and SWMC Model Rivers. Major river system of
Bangladesh captured by FAP19 and NWRD from SPOT89 image and LANDSAT97
image.
1.1.1.2 Perennial Waterbodies, 1989 Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Perennial_wbsbd89
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: This spatial data layer representing the location of perennial water bodies of
Bangladesh which was captured by NWRD from SPOT89.
1.1.1.3 Main Rivers, 1997 Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Main_River_97
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: The main rivers are defined as the Ganges and the Brahmaputra from the
points
where they enter the country to the Padma confluence, the Padma itself, and the
Meghna
from the confluence of the Kushyara and Surma to, and including, the lower Meghna
estuary. Main river system of Bangladesh captured by FAP19 and NWRD from
SPOT89 and LANDSAT97 image.
1.1.1.4 Detail Rivers 97 Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Detail_river_97
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer containing rivers, channels and khals of Bangladesh
along with the nomenclature of BWDB, BIWTA and SWMC (for Model river). Detail
river system of Bangladesh updated from LANDSAT97 along the changed river
course for the whole country by NWRD
1.1.1.5 River Network Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: River_Network
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Based on Major Rivers, Perennial Water bodies, Main Rivers and Detail
Rivers River network data is prepared in TSCW
1.1.1.6 Agriculture Land Use Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: BD_Landuse
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A generalized spatial data layer containing agricultural landuse covering the
dominant crop and its rotation over the season
1.1.1.7 Flood Regime Land Type Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Flood_Regime_Land
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer showing average floods depth during the monsoon
season.
Flood regime landtype generated from a GIS analysis involving digital elevation
model and soil classification dataset by FAP19
1.1.1.8 Draft Restriction Map of BIWTA 1999 Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: d010699
Feature Type: Simple
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the draft restriction routes of inland waterways
of Bangladesh, Year 1999. Draft restriction routes generated from Draft Restriction
map published by BIWTA in 1999.
1.1.1.9 Location of Inland Waterway Facilities Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: BIWT_Facilities
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer presenting the location of the stations that serve inland
water related facilities maintained by Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority
(BIWTA). Location of inland waterway facilities generated by NWRD from Inland
Waterway map published by BIWTA
1.1.1.10 Navigation route 1994-95 generated by BIWTA Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: IWT
Feature Class: River_Route
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the waterways (Navigation route 1994-95)
demarcated by Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA).
1.1.1.11 BWDB Embankment locations
Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: WARPO
Feature Class: Embankment_locations
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: The data layer contains all embankment locations of BWDB (Bangladesh
Water Development Board) FCDI (Flood Control Drainage & Irrigation) Projects
with attribute information. All embankment locations of BWDB FCDI Projects
capturd by NWRD from Inventory of Water Development Systems 1991 published by
BWDB
1.1.1.12 Administrative Headquarters Owner: WARPO
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: HQ_BD
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Bangladesh District and Thana Headquarters
1.1.1.13 Rail stations of Bangladesh
Owner: BR
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: BR
Feature Class: Rail_Station_BD
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the locations of rail stations of the entire
Bangladesh along with other attribute information. Railway station locations of
Bangladesh generated by Bangladesh Railway in 1999 and updated by NWRD
1.1.1.14 Railway Network of Bangladesh
Owner: BR
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: BR
Feature Class: BR_2011
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: A spatial data layer showing the railway network of the entire railway
system
of Bangladesh along with other attribute information. Rail Line location of
Bangladesh
generated by Bangladesh Railway in 1999 and updated by NWRD.
1.1.1.15 RHD Roads Network of Bangladesh Owner: RHD
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: RHD
Feature Class: RHD_2011
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Based on RHD roads network topological correction is made, connectivity
is established and spatial resolution is increased.
1.1.1.16 RHD: Important Location Name Owner: RHD
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: RHD
Feature Class: POI_RHD
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
1.1.1.17 RHD Ferry Location Owner: RHD
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: RHD
Feature Class: Ferry_Final_RHD
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
1.1.1.18 RHD Bridge Location Owner: RHD
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: RHD
Feature Class: Bridge_RHD
Geometry Type: Point
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
1.1.1.19 LGED Road network of Bangladesh Owner: LGED
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: LGED
Feature Class: Roads_LGED_BGD
Geometry Type: Line
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
1.1.1.20 Detail Administrative Boundary Owner: LGED
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: Boundary_Union,
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Detail Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International
boundary, Divisional boundary, district boundary, Thana boundary and Union
boundary.
1.1.1.21 Detail Administrative Boundary Owner: LGED
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: Boundary_Thana
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International boundary,
Divisional boundary, district boundary and Thana boundary.
1.1.1.22 Detail Administrative Boundary Owner: LGED
Data Type: Personal Geodatabase Feature Class
Location: TSC:\\GIS\D:\TSCW_GIS_DataCenter\TSCW_MasterGeodata.mdb
Feature Dataset: NationWide
Feature Class: Boundary_District
Geometry Type: Polygon
Geographic Coordinate System: GCS_WGS_1984
Abstract: Detail Administrative Boundary of Bangladesh covering International
boundary, Divisional boundary and district boundary.
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
Appendix: B Organization Structures
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐1
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐2
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐3
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐4
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐5
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐6
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012 6011001.000
Appendix: B‐7
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
Appendix: C 1st Workshop Presentation Slides
1
The TA: Capacity Building and Support to TSC Wing of the
Planning Commission:
“Overview”
Maks Alam, P.Eng. (Canada)
MMM Group, Canada
Team Leader, ADB TA-7388-BAN
The TA: An ADB and TSC Wing, PC Initiative
Enhanced capabilities to promote
coordinated, efficient, seamless, and
secure movement of passenger and
freight traffic on the multi-modal
transportation system and across our
international borders.
2
TSC Wing of PC: The Legal Framework
STRP-II
BBS
NLTP•Section and
subsection of 4 and 5
TSC Wing
Draft IMTP
•Multimodal Transport
•Inter Agency Coordination
PID
TSW
TSC Wing: Vision and Mission
STRP-II
BBS
• The vision to ensure effective
and efficient coordination with all transport modes in
accordance with Government
polices documented under NLTP, IMTP, MDGs, NSAPR-II, VISION-
2021 and other economic
policies
• The mission to promote an
efficient but affordable multimodal transport system
3
TSC Wing: Organizational Framework
Movement of DPP: Agencies/Division and PC
STRP-II
BBS
Physical Infrastructure Division
4
TA Objectives
• As Identified in ToRo Promotion of multimodal transport systems
o Enhancement of project appraisal framework
• Consultants Identified (additional)o Set the stage for national framework on
transport data development, integration and
update
o Set the stage for capacity retention and
distribution among all transport sub-sectors to
support NLTP objectives and long-term
planning goals
TA: Beneficiaries
Effective decision driven by policy and supported by facts (total Transparency)
Multimodal Need Assessments and Identification through enhanced capacity and data
TA: “Capacity Building and Support to the TSC Wing, PC”
Outcomes
TSC Wing, PC
Transport Subsectors
Sea, Inland and Land
Ports
DPs (ADB, WB, JICA, USAID)
GOB
(accelerated
funding)
5
The Decision Support
System (DSS) Process
• 1st establish “buy in” multi-
agency co-operation (Box-1)
• 2nd develop strategic national
multimodal GIS and attribute
database (Box-1)
• 3rd introduce and execute on-the-
job training/workshop on
planning plus policy analysis
tools and performance indices
(Box-2)
• 4th deploy the DSS process for
policy maker that are data driven,
multimodal, multi-sector, and
"what if" modal policy sensitive
(Box-3)
BOX-1
BOX-2
BOX-3
TA Results: Total Outputs
Time Scale in Months
6
TA Outputs: Delivery and Retention
• Data, Information and analysis output dissemination using TSC Wing Website, and other digital media
• “Knowledge” exchange “buy-in” sessions among transport sub-sectors and TSC Wing (includes digital exchange via blog, facebook etc.)
• On the job continuous training and mentoring for officials of TSC Wing using analysis tools and software
• Total 12 training courses (one for each transport sub-sector) on multimodal transport demand analysis tools adopted by TSCW under this TA
• TSC Wing participation in inter-ministerial steering committee for transport project co-ordination through “strong partnership”
Capacity Building Issues
“In Bangladesh, the missing links of capacity buildings are
the skills, tools, training, continuing education and
mentoring NOT the talents or policy directives or institutional arrangement. These areas of capacity
building need immediate attention to overcome the vast
transportation planning and policy challenges that the country are experiencing now and in the foreseeable
future”
7
Part -2: Technical Session
Inter-Agency Transport Coordination and Integration for Successful Promotion of
Multimodal System
Maks Alam, P.Eng. (Canada)
MMM Group, Canada
Team Leader, ADB TA-7388-BAN
8
Road Network Coverage in Bangladesh
RHD
• 21,571 Km of roadso 3,570 km National Highways
o 4,323 km regional roads
o 13,678 km of district roads
• 14,712 bridges (184,00
m total)
• LGED
• 129,793 km of rural
roadso 65,102 paved
o 64,691 unpaved
Rail Network Coverage in Bangladesh
• 2,884 route-kmo 1,838 km meter gauge
o 682 km broad gauge
o 264 km of dual gauge
9
20 Years Rail Development Plans
Water Network Coverage in Bangladesh
• 24, 000 km inland
water wayso 6,000 km year round
o 18,000 km seasonal
• 2 sea portso Chittagong
o Mongla
• 19 inland water ports
• 360 Launch Stations
• 540 Launch Ghat
10
Why Integrated Multimodal Transport?
BBS
Transport Sectors
Tourism
Water Resources
Agriculture
Land useEnergy
Environment
Health“Scarce
recourses
diminishes as
demand for
transport
network supply
increases”
The Induced
Impact on
Resources
Managing the Scarce Resources
BBS
“As government work as provider of the transportation systems, it faces an increasingly
complex challenge of improving safety, mobility and the aesthetics in an environment of constrained resources. Implementing multimodal approach is essential to ensure that the investment of the public
funds are entrusted wisely used to minimize long-term costs in achieving the desired service level objectives.”
11
Multimodal Transport: What is it? How it Works?
BBS
Transport Outlook: National – by Modes
Historical Passenger Traffic Historical Freight Traffic
BBS
12
Transport Outlook: National – by Modes
Passenger Traffic Outlook:2025 Freight Traffic Outlook:2025
BBS
Transport Outlook: Mega City-Dhaka
Year to Year Traffic Change (MT) Future Trend (MT)
BBS
7.1%
8.2%
9.7% 9.6%
11.4%12.1%
14.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% I
ncr
ease
YEAR
1,200,000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
To
tal
Veh
icle
Nu
mb
er i
n D
hak
a
Th
ou
san
ds
Year
13
Transport Outlook: Port (Chittagong)
Bulk Cargo:2025 Container Cargo: 2025
BBS
Double Growth Triple GrowthDouble Growth
Transport Outlook: Modal Share
Passenger Travel Freight Traffic
BBS
14
Transport Cost by Modes (Dhaka-Ctg. Example)
BBS
Transport Investment Trend
BBS
15
Transport Outlook: Summary
• Both Freight and Passenger traffic are forecasted to be doubled by 2020
• Roads continue to dominate the modal share, creating fierce competition with the depleting agricultural land
• Dhaka city traffic will be doubled by 2020
• The modal share is continue to decline from water and rail transport sectors until the NLTP and IMTP objectives are enforced and practiced.
• Increased in GOB investment in Transport sectorsBBS
What Happens When Volume Doubled? USA Example-Base Case
BBS
16
What Happens When Volume Doubled? USA Example-Future Case
BBS
Transport Priority-TSC Wing
BBS
Guided by NLTP
objective and vision
Driven by National and
Regional Policy AgendaGuided by NLTP
objective and vision
Driven by National and
Regional Policy Agenda
17
Transport Priority: Executive Agencies
BBS
Guided by sector specific master plan and objectives
Multimodal Project Priority: U.S. DOT Example
BBS
18
Multimodal Planning Constraints
STRP-II
BBS
• Database (GIS-T, Traffic Demand, Physical
performance and others)
• Analytical tools and software
• Human resources
• Intermodal connectors
• Lack of project co-ordination among subsectors
• Lack of transshipment facilities
• Lack of transport logistic
Multimodal Option: Water Mode
STRP-II
BBS
Mode: Water
• Offer most extensive waterway network in the world
• Most promising but highly neglected• Offer cheapest mode of transportation for bulks (tk 0.99/ton-km)
• Offer positive benefit to water resource management
• Land reclaiming potential through capital dredging management
• Lowest accident rate (250-350 deaths/year-60% due to overloading)• Positive benefit to tourism
• Direct benefit to road sector through the reduction of less time sensitive freight diversion to water
Constraints:• Constrained allocation of funding
• Lack of intermodal connectors
• Lack of transshipment and handling facilities• Siltation/navigable depth
• Database
19
River Management
Freight Volume at Mighty
Mississippi River
Freight Route Opportunities
Mighty Rivers: Bangladesh
Multimodal Options: Rail
STRP-II
BBS
Mode: Rail
• Most promising mode of freight and passenger transportation
• Offer competitive price for freight and passenger• Offer positive benefit to energy, environment and agricultural land
• No option for unplanned track side development
• Safest and most reliable mode of land transportation
• Can significantly reduce road sector overloading by attracting container freight and forestry products.
Constraints:
• Funding
• Rolling stocks• Capacity Shortage (Tracks)
• Lack of transshipment facilities
• Lack of TOFC/COFC service to offer door-to-door service• Reliability/Operational
• Database
20
Rail Network Capacity and Tonnage
Rail Capacity Usage Rail Tonnage
BBS
Multimodal Options: Road
STRP-II
BBS
Mode: Roads
• Customer focused and favorable
• Offer door to door service with extensive network coverage• Higher reliability than other modes
• Favorable to poverty reduction and socio-economic benefit
• Highest per ton-km tariff
• Highest accident rate• Adverse effect on energy, carbon emission and environment
• Loss of agricultural lands
Constraints:
• Lands (high cost capacity expansion)
• Exceeding capacity
• Bottleneck at Major Bridges (River crossings)• Price of energy
• High maintenance
• Database
21
Road Network-Traffic volume
2004 Traffic: Road 2025 Traffic: Road
Traffic Simulation:Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: Roads
BBS
22
Traffic Simulation:Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: Roads
BBS
Multimodal Options: Ports
STRP-II
BBS
Mode: Ports
• The most important gateway for Bangladesh with 92% of export/import volume
• Strategic location with the potential for serving as regional hub
• Close to south-Asia growth pole having connectivity with Singapore and Colombo ports
• Directly lead Bangladesh in Global competitiveness ( i.e., garments export)
Constraints:
• Lack of multimodal connectivity• Draft limitation for large mother ship
• Unplanned development along the riverside limiting future expansion
• Resource limitations for operation as well as long-term planning and forecasting
• No long-term master plans
• Unable to take full advantage of new container terminals due to administrative bureaucracy
23
Multimodal Options: Ports
BBS
Multimodal Options: Mega City Dhaka
STRP-II
BBS
Multimodal offers most unique opportunity to develop a
true world-class transport system
• The Supplyo Water (Canals and rivers)
o Rail
o Road/expressways
o Air
• The demando Auto
o Transit/bus, BRT
o Commuter rails, MRT
o Boat, water transit
o Rickshaw
o Biking, walking
24
Multimodal Initiatives: Dhaka Context
• The long-range plans (STP)
• Generated and induced traffic
• Downstream/Upstream congestion
• Priority for multimodal connectors
• Parking cost
• System-wide total traffic delays
• Indirect environmental impacts
• Land use impacts (Agriculture)
• Transportation diversity (by mode)
• Per-capita crash risk
• Public fitness and health impacts
• Travelers’ preferences for alternative
modes (trips other than Auto/bus)
• Financial costs to government
• Door to door service
• Vehicle operating costs (fuel,
tolls, tire wear)
• Travel time (reduced congestion)
• Per-mile crash risk
• Sub-sector specific agenda (lack of integration)
BBS
Considered Not Considered
Dhaka Circular Waterway: The Potential?
BBS
• Tourism opportunity
• Revenue for Dhaka City
• Health and active lifestyle
• Alleviating congestion from Dhaka
• Job opportunity (the
poverty alleviation goals)
• A breathing opportunity
from our daily polluted
urban life-style (noise and emission)
25
Multimodal Initiatives: Dhaka Mega City
• Sub-sector specific (most secret projects)
• Lack of multimodal analytical models to understand the net outcome of these projects on
congestion alleviation
• Managing existing traffic during
construction phase
• Lack of effective initiative for capacity building and training
• No exit-plan if funding discontinue during the project construction
• Lack of planning for transshipment and handling points (parking, bus
stops, etc.)
Inter-agency Coordination: Key for Multimodal Success
BBS
26
Capacity Building Needs for Transport Sectors
BBS
• Database – “WITHOUT DATA IT’s JUST an OPINION”o Origin-Destination Trip (Freight and Passenger)
o Passenger and freight economic forecast and demand
o Asset inventory
o Geographical Information System for Transportation (GIS-T)
• Tools and Software:o Traffic demand and forecasting modeling (i.e., TransCAD)
o Traffic simulation (i.e, TransModeller)
o GIS (AcrGIS, TransCAD, Maptitude)
o Economic Analysis (i.e., HDM-4, HERS-ST, BenCost)
o Project Impact analysis on PSRF (PAF, HCM, etc.)
o Project Impact analysis on PSRF (REMI, JobMOD etc.)
o Computers/Server
Capacity Building Needs for Transport Sectors
BBS
• Training and Continuing Educationo Local and International training
o Create opportunity for higher education
o Create opportunity for international on-the job training on how to operate
and manage such multi-modal transport mega projects
o Allow opportunity to access or tap in resources from world class transport
agencies (U.S. DOT, Australian Road Transport, and others)
o Training and awareness on PPP projects
• Human Resource Developmento Multimodal Mega Projects – Design, Construction, Operation and long-term
maintenance (the resources development)
o Incentive for resources retention
o Dedicated GOB or DPs funding for long-term resources development
o Establish “Performance Index”, monitor resource output
o Avoid short-term (piece meal approach)
27
TSC Wing: Capacity Building Activities
STRP-II
BBS
• Build transport and socio-economic data warehouse using the readily available database
• Developing the first-ever GIS-Tbased National multimodal network in Bangladesh
• Introduce TransCAD Multimodal Travel Demand Models
• TransModeler Multimodal Traffic Simulation Models
• Introduce HERS-ST, Highway Economic Analysis Tools
• Introduce Traffic Impact Study concept
• Develop DSS policy process
TSC Wing: Activity on-progress
STRP-II
BBS
• GIS database to support subsector master plans
• Subsectors capacity gap identification
• multimodal network
• Training on traffic demand and simulation models
• economic analysis tools
• Local and international on-the-job training
• Training manuals
• Strengthen two-way communication between TSC Wing and sub-sector
28
TSC Wing: Traffic Simulation – “What if” Demo
STRP-II
BBS
Babar Road Mirpur
Morning Peak
Thank you
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
Appendix: D
2nd Workshop Presentation Slides
1
The TA: Capacity Building and Support to TSC Wing of the
Planning Commission:
“TA Overview”
Maks Alam, P.Eng. (Canada)
MMM Group, Canada
Team Leader, ADB TA-7388-BAN
The TA: An ADB and TSC Wing, PC Initiative
Enhanced capabilities to promote
efficient, safe and seamless movement of passenger and
freight traffic on the multi-modal
transportation system and across our international borders.
2
TSC Wing: Vision and Mission
STRP-II
BBS
• The vision to ensure effective and
efficient coordination with all transport modes in accordance
with Government high level
policy framework such as NLTP, Five Year Plans, VISION 2021, and
other economic policy
• The mission to integrate transport policy, planning and appraisal
across modes
TA Objectives
• Promotion of an Integrated
Multimodal Transport System (IMTS) in the country
• Enhancement of Project Appraisal
Framework
3
TA Outputs: The Beneficiaries
• TSC Wing, Planning Commission, is the Principal Beneficiary
• Major Ministries: Communication, Rail, and Shipping
• The Road and Highways Department
• The Bangladesh Railway
• The Inland Water Transport Authority
• The Bangladesh Bridge Authority
• The Dhaka Transport Coordination Board
• The Local Government Engineering Department
• City Development Authorities and City Corporations
• Port Authorities, and other concerned Transport agencies
• Development Partners (DPs)
TA Outputs: The Beneficiaries (contd.)
Needs identification through IMTS
“What if” Decision driven by policy
and data
Analytical capabilities and database development
TA
Outcomes
GOB Accelerated funding for Subsectors
DPs
4
TA Deliverables
• Project Inception Report
• Identified, Implemented and Trained Analytical Tools
� TransCAD Traffic Demand Models
� Thematic mapping and analysis using GIS database and software
� TransModeller Traffic Simulation
� Highway Economic Requirement Systems (HERS)
• Prepare GIS database for Rail Master Plan
• Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework for BR and IWT
• Prepared Integrated implemented GIS-T based multimodal transportation network and analytical models
TA Deliverables (Contd.)
• RHD road-link based national trip O-D demand
• Established DSS Process
• Submitted Quarterly Reports
• Workshops
• Draft Final Reports/Final Reports
5
Key Recommendations
• Prepare National Integrated Multimodal Transport Master Plan
• Develop and maintain a National Transport GIS-T database
• Take initiative to finalize, approve and implement Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy.
• Initiate a process to undertake transport sector survey on passenger and freight O-D trip database
• All the new officials to be posted in transport sector of the PID must undergo a training program on multimodal analytical models.
• Conduct training when necessary on the systemic analysis process on DPP appraisal and evaluation
• Disseminate knowledge and information gained under this TA, through training, awareness or outreach session with the transport subsectors
• Implement and adopt DSS process for “what if” policy and planning analysis
• Adopt, Implement and promote traffic demand models and traffic simulation for multimodal project analysis.
Capacity Building Issues
“In Bangladesh, the noticeable constraints of multimodal
capacity buildings are the information, skills, tools,
training, and communication among transport subsectors NOT the talents or policy directives or institutional
arrangement. These areas of capacity building need
immediate attention to overcome the vast transportation planning and policy challenges that the country are
experiencing now and in the foreseeable future”
6
Part -2: Technical Session-1
Need of an Integrated Multimodal
Transport System (IMTS) for Sustainable Economic Growth
Maks Alam, P.Eng. (Canada)
MMM Group, Canada
Team Leader, ADB TA-7388-BAN
Integrated Multimodal Transport System (IMTS)
What?•Transport Network
•Modes
Why?•Support Growth
•Manage Resources
•Sustainability
Who?
•GOB
•Planning Commission
•Transport Subsectors
How?
•Policy
•Planning
•Database/Analysis
•Partnership
7
Integrated Multimodal Transport System:What it is?
What?•Transport Network
•Modes
Why?•Support Growth
•Manage Resources
•Sustainability
Who?
•GOB
•Planning Commission
•Transport Subsectors
How?
•Policy
•Planning
•Database/Analysis
•Partnership
The Transport Network: A Global Definition
Transport
System
People
Goods
Electricity
Pipeline
Communication
Conveyer belt system
Purpose: Allow Flow of Movement Performance: Constrained by Congestion
8
Existing Multimodal Surface Transportation in Bangladesh
Road
• Car, Taxi, Rickshaw, etc.
• Bus, biking, walking
• Trucks
Rail• Goods Wagon
• Passenger cars
• Containers
Water• Country boat
• Launch
• Tag boat, etc.
Existing Multimodal Transport System(Road Network)
Road Network System: The Supply
• 21,571 Km of roads
• 14,712 bridges
• 129,793 km of rural roads
The Modes within Mode: Vehicles
• Car, Bus, Rickshaw, Trucks, Maxi, Nasimon, Walking, and others
• BRT, Bus Transit System
Road Network System: The Demand
• Passenger: 140 Billion passenger-km
• Freight: 25 Billion Ton-Km
9
Existing Multimodal Transport System(Rail System)
Rail Network System: The Supply
• 2,884 route Km of rail tracks
• About 3650 of bridges
• junctions/yards
• 2 Container intermodal Terminals
The Modes within Mode: Vehicles
• Rail Cars, Containers, Freight Wagon
• MRT, LRT, Commuter
Rail Network System: The Demand
• Passenger: 17 Billion passenger-km
• Freight: 1.5 Billion Ton-Km
Existing Multimodal Transport System(Water System)
Water Network System: The Supply• 24,000 route Km of inland waterway
• Two sea ports
• 19 Inland water ports• 360 launch stations
• 540 launch ghats• 3 intermodal Container Terminals
The Modes within Mode: Vehicles• Country boat, tag boat, launch, ships • Water taxi, ferry,
Water Network System: The Demand• Passenger: 14 Billion passenger-km
• Freight: 6 Billion Ton-Km
10
Existing Multimodal Transport Network
Integrated Multimodal Transport System:Why Needed?
What?• Transport Network
• Modes
Why?• Support Growth
• Manage Resources
• Sustainability
Who?• GOB
• Planning Commission
• Transport Subsectors
How?
• Policy
• Planning
• Database
• Analysis
• Partnership
11
Why Integrated Multimodal Transport?
BBS
Transport Sectors
Tourism
Water Resources
Agriculture
Land useEnergy
Environment
Health“Scarce
resources
diminishes as
demand for
transport
network supply
increases”
Offer
Sustainable
Economic
Growth
Managing the Scarce Resources: Supporting 147 M Population
BBS
12
Managing Resources: Agriculture Land
BBS
Managing Resources: Agriculture Land and River System
BBS
13
Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River and Rail Tracks
BBS
Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River, and RHD Roads
BBS
14
Managing Resources: Agriculture Land, River, RHD and LGED Road System
BBS
Growth Everywhere
BBS
Traffic•Passenger 6.5%
•Freight 12%
Population •1.36%
GDP•GDP 6.6%
•Inflation 10.6%
Others
•5% Urban Sprawl
•Energy
•Tourism
15
Transport Outlook: 2021
• Both Freight and Passenger traffic are forecasted to be
doubled from it base year 2010.
• Roads continue to dominate the modal share, creating
fierce competition with the depleting agricultural land
• Dhaka city traffic will be doubled
• Double growth for bulk and triple growth for container
cargo at Chittagong ports
• The modal share is continue to decline from water and
rail transport sectors
• Increased in GOB and DPs findings for transport sectors
The Sustainable Economic Growth and IMTS
The double digit growths in transport demand fueled by
alarming population growth and limiting by the depleting resources calls for immediate action for an
integrated multimodal transport system in Bangladesh
for a sustainable economic growth.
16
Sustainable Transport Development Results Sustainable Economic Growth
“A key change will need to take place in how the costs of transport are internalized, as the wider costs to society arising from road accidents, poor health, social impacts and environmental degradation, often described as the ‘external’ costs, are currently excluded from the price that transport users confront” – Ko Sakamoto, Transport Expert
Ref: The "cogwheels of change," introduced by transport expert Ko Sakamoto
Managing the Scarce Resources
BBS
“As government work as a provider and also often an operator (i.e., Bangladesh Railway) transport
infrastructure, it faces an increasingly complex challenge of improving safety, mobility, water resource and agriculture land and the aesthetics in an environment of constrained resources. Under such
resources constraint, implementing multimodal approach is essential to ensure that the investment of the public funds in transport sectors are utilized wisely.”
17
Integrated Multimodal Transport System:Who Should Implement?
What?•Transport Network
•Modes
Why?•Support Growth
•Manage Resources
•Sustainability
Who?
•GOB
•Planning Commission
•Transport Subsectors
How?
•Policy
•Planning
•Database
•Analytical model
•Partnership
Planning Commission: Planned Development of National Interest
BBS
Guided by NLTP
objective and vision
Driven by National and
Regional Policy Agenda
Transport Projects are guided by
National Economy Policy
Objectives
18
Transport Subsector: Implementation and maintaining of Planned Transport Projects
BBS
Multimodal Coordination Through Partnership
BBS
19
Integrated Multimodal Planning Challenges
STRP-II
BBS
Institutional Barrier• One transport system: six ministries and many implementing agencies.
Database/Information• Origin-Destination Trip (Freight and Passenger)
• Passenger and freight forecast ( future demand)
• Asset inventory
• Geographical Information System for Transportation
• Periodic update on key transport performance indices and Socio-economic data
Analysis Tools and Knowledge• Traffic demand and forecasting modeling
• Traffic simulation
• GIS for visualization
• Economic Analysis
• Project Impact analysis
Integrated Multimodal Planning Challenges (Contd.)
STRP-II
BBS
Capacity Gap - Resources Development• Multimodal Mega Projects – Planning , Operation and Long-Term Monitoring
• Incentive for Resources Retention
• Dedicated GOB or DPs Funding for Long-term Resources Development and
Retention
• “Performance Index” to monitor resource output
Coordination• Subsector specific
• Information sharing among transport sectors and ministries
• Outreach program and communication
• National Integrated Transport Master Plan/Policy
20
Integrated Multimodal Transport System:How to promote?
What?•Transport Network
•Modes
Why?•Support Growth
•Manage Resources
•Sustainability
Who?
•GOB
•Planning Commission
•Transport Subsectors
How?
•Policy
•Planning
•Database
•Analytical models
•Partnership
Multimodal Capacity Building InitiativesTA-7388
STRP-II
BBS
• Policy
• Planning
• Database
• Analytical Models
Addressing the key constraints: The Baseline
21
The DSS Process
Multimodal Data Inputs:
knowledge, data, and information.
Planning and Policy Analysis
and Outcomes: Problem
processing system, reporting and
presentation.
Policy Output: Decision-making
driven by policy and data.
Policy
STRP-II
BBS
• National Land Transport Policy (NLTP)
• Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy (IMTP)
Policy Guidelines:
22
Planning
STRP-II
BBS
• Project Appraisal Framework (PAF)o RHD
o RAIL
o IWT
• Subsector Specific Master Planso RHD
o Rail
o IWT
• Integrated Multimodal National Master Plan
• Database and
• Analytical Tools
Requirements:
Multimodal Database: AchievementTA-7388
STRP-II
BBS
• Multimodal Network for Analytical Modeling and
Visualization
• Rail and Road Traffic and Inventory data integration
• Rail and Road Linear Referencing System for data update and future integration
• National Trip Origin Destination Database
23
Multimodal Database
BBS
Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Geometry Correction
Multimodal Database
BBS
Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Network Alignment & Accuracy
24
Multimodal Database
BBS
Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Connectivity
Multimodal Database
BBS
Multimodal GIS-T Data Integration: Modal Connectivity 2
Network Discontinuity Before Edit Network Discontinuity After Edit
Intersection Error Before Edit Intersection Error After Edit
25
Multimodal Database
BBS
Linear Referencing System
Multimodal Analytical Models:Achievement Under TA-7388
STRP-II
BBS
• TransCAD for Traffic Demand modeling and trip forecasting • “What if” Scenario Analysis for new project development and
update• Modal diversion analysis• Macro and micro traffic simulations• Present and future mode (rail and road) performance analysis
• Corridor Analysis• GIS Visualization
26
Multimodal Analytical Models: Travel Demands
BBS
Mega Projects: “What if” Scenario, Example-1
Pre Padma Bridge Traffic
At Mawa: 6,000 AADT
Padma Bridge Opening
Traffic: 12,000 AADT
Multimodal Analytical Models: Travel Demands
BBS
Pre Padma Bridge Traffic
At Mawa: 6,000 AADTPadma Bridge Opening
Traffic: 12,000 AADT
27
Multimodal Analytical Models: Travel Demands
BBS
Forecasting Future Performance/Congestions
Year 2009 Highway
Travel Delay/Congestion
Year 2021 Highway
Travel Delay/Congestion
Multimodal Analytical Models: Travel Demands
BBS
System Performance and Track Deficiencies
Year 2011 Track Speed
for Bangladesh Railway
Year 2011 Rail track
Capacity Usage, BR
28
Multimodal Analytical Models: Visualization
BBS
Future Multimodal Projects for
Dhaka City
Bangladesh Railway 20 Year
Development Plans
Multimodal Analytical Models: Traffic Simulation
BBS
A traffic simulation is an engineering process where project’s likely operational outcome is determined under a pre and post build
conditions with a prevailing or anticipated future traffic condition.
29
3-D Modeling: Airport Road Corridor at Kakoli
BBS
Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulationat Zia Colony Intersection
BBS
2011 Flow Condition
30
BBS
Opening Flow Condition
Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulationat Zia Colony Intersection
Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulation at Kuril Intersection
BBS
2011 Flow Condition
31
BBS
2015 Opening Condition
Multimodal Analytical Models: Simulation at Kuril Intersection
Multimodal Analytical Models: SimulationPre and Post Kuril and Zia Colony Interchange
BBS
Year 2011 Base Case Year 2015 Opening Condition Year 2021 Traffic Condition
Deterioration
32
Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor (Jatrabari-N2)
BBS
Divided 4-Lane Highway: Year 2011
Assumed Divided 8-Lane Highway with Year 2025 Traffic
Dhaka-Chittagong Corridor: With Road to Rail Diversion: Year 2011
BBS
No Diversion to Rail 15% Additional Utilization of Rail
Capacity
33
Multimodal Integration
Opportunities and Weaknesses
in Bangladesh
BBS
Transport Cost by Modes (Dhaka-Ctg. Example)
BBS
34
Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Road System”
STRP-II
BBS
Opportunity
• Customer focused and favorable
• Offer door to door service with extensive network coverage
• Higher reliability than other modes
• Direct linkage for Intermodal connectivity
• Favorable to poverty reduction and socio-economic benefit
• High positive impacts on rural economic activities (connecting growth centers)
Weakness
• Lands (high cost capacity expansion)
• Exceeding capacity
• Bottleneck at Major Bridges (River crossings)
• Cost of energy
• High maintenance
• Highest per ton-km tariff
• Highest accident rate
• Adverse effect on energy, carbon emission and environment
• Loss of agricultural lands
• Database
STRP-II
BBS
Opportunity
• Most promising mode of freight and passenger transportation
• Offer competitive price for freight and passenger
• Most efficient for container freight movements
• Offer positive benefit to energy, environment and agricultural land
• No option for unplanned track side development
• Safest and most reliable mode of land transportation
• Can significantly reduce road sector overloading by attracting container freight and forestry products.
Weakness
• Funding (high initial cost)
• Rolling stocks
• Capacity Shortage (Tracks)
• Lack of transshipment facilities
• Lack of TOFC/COFC service to offer door-to-door service
• Reliability/Operational
• Database
Integration Opportunities and Weakness “Rail System”
35
Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Water System”
STRP-II
BBS
Opportunity:
• Offer most extensive waterway network in the world
• Most promising but highly neglected• Offer cheapest mode of transportation for bulks (tk 0.99/ton-km)
• Offer positive benefit to water resource management
• Land reclaiming potential through capital dredging management
• Lowest accident rate (250-350 deaths/year-60% due to overloading)• Positive benefit to tourism
• Direct benefit to road sector through the reduction of less time sensitive freight diversion to water
Weakness• Funding (e.g., dredging)
• Lack of intermodal connectors
• Lack of transshipment and handling facilities• Siltation/navigable depth
• Database
Integration Opportunities and Weaknesses “Port System”
STRP-II
BBS
Opportunity:
• The most important gateway for Bangladesh with 92% of export/import volume
• Strategic location with the potential for serving as regional hub
• Close to South-Asia growth pole having connectivity with Singapore and Colombo ports
• Directly lead Bangladesh in Global competitiveness ( i.e., garments export)
Weakness
• Lack of multimodal connectivity• Draft limitation for large mother ship
• Unplanned development along the riverside limiting future expansion
• Resource limitations for operation as well as long-term planning and forecasting
• No long-term master plans
• Unable to take full advantage of new container terminals due to administrative bureaucracy
36
Moving Forward
STRP-II
BBS
Near-Term Action Plans
• Take Initiative to finalize, approve Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy (IMTP)
• Finalize Conceptual PAF for BR and IWT
• Practice and utilize multimodal analytical tools and database developed under this TA by the TSC Wing.
• Dissemination of multimodal knowledge through training and outreach session with the transport
subsectors
Moving Forward
STRP-II
BBS
Long-Term Action Plans
• Initiate process to undertake Transport Sector Survey
• Implement IMTP
• Implement PAF for BR and IWT
• Prepare National Integrated Multimodal Transport Master Plan
• Adopt, Implement and promote traffic demand models and traffic simulation for multimodal project
analysis
37
Thank you!
Next: Technical Session-2
Technical Session-2
Impact of Local and Regional Planning
on
Integrated Multimodal Transport System
(IMTS)
Engr. Sarwar AlamDeputy Project Director
TSC Wing, Planning Commission
38
Transport Planning Imperative
Transportation Planning
National Level
Regional Level
Local Level
National Level Planning
National Level Planning
Export
Import
Disconnected by Geography
Central Govt.
Emergency
Tourism
Distribution of Domestic Products
39
National Level Planning
Design Standards
National Level
• Safety
• Highest Speed
• Reliability
• Motorized
Regional Level
• Safety
• Medium Speed
• Reliability
• Motorized
Local Level
• Safety
• Low average speed
• Reliability
• NMTs
• Walks
40
Regional Level Planning
Regional Level
Separated by Geography
Administrative Boundary
Connectivity with National
Level
Services
Distribution of product within
the Region
Connectivity Problem-Pabna (Example)
Population :
2.5 million
No direct inter regional connection by Road or Railway
Need 101 km detour by Road
Need 72 km detour by Railway
Proposed 2nd Padma Bridge will shorten the distance by the same
amount with Dhaka.
A Rail Bridge over Padma will shorten the same amount with
inter region.
41
Regional Level Planning
Local level Planning- Daily Life Services
Local Level Planning
Business
Works
Shopping
Leisure
Education
Medical Services
Others daily life services
42
Local level Planning
Local Level Planning- Rural Area
Village Roads
• Road-A: 106906 km
• Road-B: 100565 km
Union Road• Paved: 19200 km
• Unpaved: 25580 km
UpazillaRoad
• Paved: 27950 km
• Unpaved: 9822 km
43
Local Level Planning: Urban Area - Dhaka City
Transport System
Walks
Buses
Cars
IWTsTrains
Other
MTs
NMTs
Dhaka City
44
Dhaka City- Educational and Commercial Density
Impact of Local Planning on Mega Projects Sustainability- Dhaka City
Attraction/Destination
Growth Rate?
Multimode
Walk and or NMT
BRT/MRT
Origin/Production
Growth Rate ?
Multimode
Walk and or NMT
BRT/MRT
45
Future OutlookOne Mega Project vs. How many km Local Road?
Village Roads
• Village Road –A unpaved:94359 km (88%)
• Village Road-B unpaved:88652 km (88%)
Union Road• Paved:19200 km(43%)
• Unpaved:25580 km (57%)
UpazillaRoad
• Paved: 27950 km(74%)
• Unpaved: 9822 km(26%)
Decentralizing by Local Level Planning and ICT will reduce pressure on National IMTS
Reduce Pressure on Cities and National IMTS
Save Time
and Money
Local Level
PlanningICT
46
Thank You!
Question?
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
APPENDIX E
Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework: Rail
o
Project Appraisal Framework
Railway Sector Manual
Transport Sector Coordination Wing
Planning Commission
Government of the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh
December 2011
2
Conceptual Guidelines of Railway Project Appraisal
1. Background
In May 2006, Project Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Road Sector Manual has been
prepared to assist government officials in the preparation of road sector improvement
projects. The manual was prepared under the Transport Sector Management Reform
(TSMR) Project funded by DFID as a support to the Transport Sector Coordination
(TSC) Wing of Planning Commission. The project was also expecting that Project
Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Railway Sector Manual would also be prepared. The
process of preparing the railway PAF started with Rail Passenger Survey and data
collection. The passenger survey report analysed income of the respondents by coach and
train class, occupation, average travel time, area of influence, passenger occupancy and
so on and calculated railway passengers’ value of time. However, the railway sector
manual could not be completed due to time constraint. A follow up project of TSMR, the
Capacity Building and Support to the Transport Sector Coordination Wing of the
Planning Commission (TA–7388–BAN, ADB) has undertaken initiative to prepare the
conceptual framework of Railway Sector Manual.
2. Need for Project Appraisal Framework for Bangladesh Railway
After publication of Project Appraisal Framework (PAF) of Road Sector Manual in 2006
with a simplified multi-criteria analysis mechanism (which addresses the socioeconomic
indicators such as poverty alleviation and social development beside the issue of
economic viability), which was appreciated and effectively implemented, the TSC Wing
desired development of a similar approach to appraise rail sector projects to harmonize
project development planning and allocate scarce resources based on equal footing as
road. But railway operation is different in nature and character than road and complex in
organization and management structure.
3. Rail Sector PAF and Issues
3.1 State-owned Enterprise
Bangladesh Railway (BR) is a state-own enterprise and public sector monopoly plying a
vital role to carry passenger, bulk commodity and container traffic. It serves both as a
commercial enterprise and as a public utility service provider. As a commercial enterprise,
BR has an obligation to generate sufficient revenue to meet its cost and as a public utility
service it has a special responsibility to provide reliable transport facilities to the
passengers and freight. Bangladesh Railway is also responsible for carrying disaster relief
goods during emergency situations like flood, famine and cyclone. BR also carries
military goods at subsidised price. In addition, the railway has to bear some costs in
matter of public education, medical care, housing, security services and welfare to the
railway officers and staff.
3
However, there has always been arguments from political-economic view point that
transport (specifically railway services) is a social service which should be public good
and meet ‘needs’ rather than demand and hence, traditional market forces need to be
supplemented to ensure that this wider social need criterion of rail operations is pursued
rather than realizing simple profit motive. Planning and appraisal for BR project must
consider the following specific characteristics of BR operation and control as an state-
owned enterprise.
3.2 Rail Cost Allocation
The issue of rail cost allocation is considerably more complex than that of the bus
industry, because the Government is responsible both for railway infrastructure, rolling
stock and service operation. However, some costs are directly incurred for train operation
including train crew, diesel fuel, and rolling stock maintenance – correspond broadly to
those found in the bus industry. Additionally, train operation needs the operation of
stations, ticketing, reservation and security incurring staffing and maintenance costs that
are function of the number and size of stations, rather than directly related to train
movements. Moreover some costs are not directly related to train operation as such, but
involve access charges (maintenance costs) to rail track, bridges, telecommunications and
signalling (covering provision of infrastructure and signalling), leasing charges (here
procurement) of rolling stock, etc. The following graph shows the revenue expenditures
of BR in FY 2008-2009.
BR Revenue Expenditures Departments
2114
3821
1366
135
978 1013
239
82
1449
108207
10647 60
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Civil E
ngin
eering
Mechanical (L
ocom
otives)
Mechanical (C
arriage &
W
agon)
Mechanical (M
arine/F
erry
)
Tra
ffic
Ele
ctrical
Sig
nal & T
elecom
DG
, GM
, Academ
y, Planning
W
elfare
Medical
Security
Accounts
Esta
te
CCS &
COS
Millio
n T
aka
4
Of them, Department of Mechanical Engineering including Traffic and Signalling are
directly involved in train operation while the Department of Civil and Electrical
Engineering are supporting train operations.
3.3 Life of Asset, Fixed and Variable Components
Bangladesh Railway owns all permanent and mobile assets of rail such as the rail track
and infrastructures, rolling stocks and bears responsibility for service operations and
systems. However, a railway service involves using services of a large number of factors,
many of these are being highly specific and each with its own physical life-span. Most of
the above costs are fixed cost for short and medium run period. When it comes for
considering line closures the essential questions revolve around deciding exactly which
costs are fixed. In the very short period, since all other items have already been purchased,
they are fixed, the only savings the railways can make are in variable costs, notably those
attributable to labour, fuel and maintenance. However, if the railways were earning
sufficient income to cover these variable costs then there is no justification for closing the
line.
After a period of about twenty years locomotives become due for replacement.
Consequently locomotive costs become variable over a twenty-year horizon but twenty
years is not the long run for railway because other components have still longer lives,
rolling stock lasting 30 years and track and signalling 50 years. Earthworks effectively
have an infinite life.
3.4 Public Service Obligation and Compensation for Social Cost
Bangladesh Railway is compensated under “Public Service Obligation (PSO)” system for
operating specific service which is not commercially viable but socially necessary. This
concept has been accepted by the Government. This is an open-ended subsidy, which has
enabled to cover its operating expenses. Issue of subsidy arises because of following
reasons:
• Carrying essential commodities and rendering transport facilities to passengers at
lower prices than cost of services
• Operation of un-economic branch lines
• Carrying relief materials at concession rates
• Carrying military traffic at less than normal tariff
In addition to the above, there may be other arguments for allowing subsidies to BR are:
• Costs may be heavily skewed towards infrastructure, as for rail, in which case the
marginal costs will be lower than the average costs,
• Costs vary by time of the day, the marginal costs in the peak hour will be much
higher as the system will be at capacity. But at other times of the day the costs
may approach zero as the trains and staff are employed for the peak demand, and
5
• Efficient train operation and enhanced frequency will reduce both the costs of
passengers (users) and operators (producer)
The present situation of Bangladesh railway may represent graphically as follows:
Let SS (or W or NSB) = CS + PS = TSB – TSC = WTP – TSC
Where, SS= Social Surplus, W=Welfare, NSB=Net Social Benefit, CS=Consumer
Surplus, PS=producer Surplus, TSB=Total Social Benefit, TSC=Total Social Cost,
WTP=Willing to Pay
Figure 1: Present Marginal Cost and PSO Obligation of BR P
a
P* MC=AC
b c d
P1 D
Q* Q1 Q
At (Q1,P1) CS=a+b+c, where P1<MC
PS= – (b+c+d), amount of subsidy as Public Service Obligation (PSO)
SS=a+b+c-d
At (Q*,P*) CS=a, where P* = MC
PS= 0
SS= a
3.5 Pro-poor and Gender Biased Transport Service
The Rail Passenger Survey report had taken into consideration of different socio-
economic strata of passengers. It is seen that the highest percentages of respondents are
located within Tk.7001- 10,000 income group and the lowest percentages of respondents
are found located in Tk.20,000 - above income group. It is observed that income group
from Tk.3000 - 10,000/month consist of about 50% of the total passenger. The lower
income group (up to Tk.3000/month) accounts for 23% of the rail passenger. Hence
almost one quarter of rail passengers can be considered very poor.
6
It is seen from the report that survey also incorporated number of women among the
passenger. The survey found that about the percentage of women among the passenger
was found to be 22% across all trains.
3.6 Contrasts in the Appraisal of Rail and Road Transport
The following Table 1 sets out the contrasts and consideration of major parameters for
the appraisal of rail and road projects.
Table 1: Contrasts and Consideration in the Appraisal of Rail and Road Parameters Rail Appraisal Road Appraisal
Fixed Plant • Owned under public sector
• Longer life of fixed plant
• Replacement near to impossible
• Needs mainly routine
maintenance
• Less use of materials for
maintenance
• Materials like ballast are reused
• Less responsive by natural
disaster like flood and cyclone
• Owned under public sector
• Shorter life of fixed plant
• Replacement is possible
• Needs routine, periodic and
reconstruction maintenance
• Use of materials for
maintenance
• Generally bituminous
carpeting are not reused
• Quick deterioration by natural
disaster like flood
Mobile Plant • Rolling stock owned under
public sector
• Longer life of mobile plant about
25-30 years
• In general, vehicles owned
under private sector
• Shorter life of mobile plant
about 10-12 year
Operating Cost
Estimation • Only maintenance cost (access
charge) of fixed plant
• Rental cost of rolling stock
• Maintenance cost of rolling stock
• Operation cost of traffic
department (crew, station
personnel, etc)
• Operation cost (access charge) of
signalling department
• Purchase cost of vehicles
• Maintenance cost of vehicles
including accessories
• Overhead cost (management
cost)
• Crew cost (driver and
assistance)
• Yearly road tax only
Producer Surplus • Producer surplus share with
fixed plant
• No share of producer surplus
with fixed plant
Wider Economic
Impacts • Station based business activities
• Cheaper freight and passenger
transport
• Along the road business
activities
• Less cheaper freight and
passenger transport
• Long distance and large volume
of freight and passenger
transport
• Less externalities
• Less accident
• No congestion
• Less efficient transport
• Much externalities
• Accident prone
• Making congestion
7
4. Project Appraisal Framework and Considerations
Techniques of project appraisal generally rest, wholly or partly, on the concept of
economic efficiency. Tests of economic efficiency rest of the valuation of all costs and
benefits of a project in money terms, and methods of doing this in respect of all the
objectives of transport policy will then are considered. A project is economically efficient
if the benefits measured in money terms exceed the costs; the most efficient project is
that for which the difference is the greatest. A method is also required for dealing with
the fact that costs and benefits of transport projects are spread over many years.
Conventionally this is handled by the technique of discounting for time.
If one is concerned with the distribution of income in the economy and users perspective,
then it is necessary to know not just whether a project contributes to economic efficiency
but also who gains and who loses from it. This can be undertaken by identifying groups
in terms of function (poor among users, job creation for poor people, women among users,
job creation of women and resettlement, residents) and income level, and disaggregating
costs and benefits to these groups. Then it is possible to attach, explicitly or implicitly,
higher weight to poorer sectors of society. However, it is complicated to analyse, as the
repercussions of projects have to be traced through all those affected.
4.1 Efficiency
A key aspect of railway appraisal is usually the search for an ‘efficient’ allocation of
resources, and it is important at the outset, therefore, to have a clear understanding of
what is meant by the concept of economic efficiency. An economically efficient
allocation of resources is achieved when it is impossible to make one person or group in
society better off without making another group worse off. In other words, if projects
could be found and undertaken which would make everyone better off, those projects
would serve to promote economic efficiency.
However, to make the efficiency analysis easy, the following parameters should be
considered in the cost-benefit analysis for preparation of the PAF. Impact of externalities
such as accident, emission and environment should be considered in course of the cost-
benefit analysis based on available qualitative and quantitative information. The PAF
must analyse the impact of changes on producers’ and consumers’ surplus as well as
externalities in following items:
Change in operator/producer surplus
• Effect on revenue
• Effect on costs – Capital
• Effect on costs - Operating
Changes in consumer surplus (user impacts)
8
• Changes in generalised cost
• Effect on generated/suppressed travel
Externalities (non-user impacts)
• Congestion
• Accidents
• Environment
4.1.1 Valuing costs and benefits
Like any other project, the railway project will involve costs (capital cost, procurement of
rolling stock, land acquisition and resettlement, maintenance and operating costs, and
estimation of externalities) and benefits (time and operating cost savings, accident
savings, savings of road vehicle user cost and time savings from road transport) to
measure the economic efficiency.
Typical cost streams include the following:
• Construction costs/Civil Engineering Works (capital cost)
• Operation and Maintenance costs
• Procurement of Rolling Stocks and Installation of Equipment
• Land acquisition and Resettlement cost
• Environmental and social impact mitigation
• Administrative and other costs
The benefits streams will include:
• Travel Time Cost (TTC) saving of rail passengers and freight
• Train Operating Cost (TOC) savings
• Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings of road vehicles diverted
• Travel Time Cost (TTC) savings of road passengers in case of alternative Option
• External Cost Savings (air pollution, CO2 emissions and accidents), if possible
The benefits would be calculated by deducting the ‘project case’ costs from ‘base case’
costs scenarios. Economic efficiency is measured by three major criteria, economic
internal rate of return (EIRR), net present value (NPV) and benefit-cost ratio (BCR)
which can be calculated in MS Excel worksheet.
4.1.2 Generated Traffic
The above discussion on time saving benefit suggests that the cost of making a particular
journey may be taken as:
G = M + vT
Where G = generalised cost, M = money cost, v = value of time, and T = journey time.
The price in a standard demand curve may be replaced by this notion of generalised cost
which allows for the fact that rail users pay for their journey in a combination of time and
money devoted to it.
9
= 0.5 (G1 – G2) (Q1 + Q2)
Generalised cost = excess of G2 over resource cost
Figure 2: Benefits from reduced railway costs
Q1 Q2
Traffic volume
It would be expected that, as the generalised cost of journeys fell, so the number of trip
undertaken would rise, so that a demand curve can be drawn relating to this generalised
cost to the number of journeys made, or Q = Q (G). Assuming for simplicity a straight
line demand relationship, this may be drawn as in Figure 2.
Now suppose that a railway project reduces the generalised cost from G1 to G2, and
causes an increase in demand from Q1 to Q2, The generalised cost saving to the existing
users is straightforwardly measured as (G1 – G2) Q1. New users are actually paying G2 for
their journeys. They were not willing to travel when the cost was G1. In fact the demand
curve tells the maximum that each user is willing to pay for the journey, and if it is linear
then on average this is halfway between G1 and G2. Thus on average the difference
between what new users are willing to pay and what they actually pay is 0.5 (G1 – G2).
This is termed as consumers’ surplus on the additional journeys. Overall the benefit to
users from the generalised cost change, or the additional consumer surplus to users, is
therefore 0.5 (G1 – G2) (Q1 + Q2).
4.1.3 Accident
G1
G2
10
It is known that the rate of accident in rail is lesser than that of road. The accident cost
may be divided into those that are readily valued in money terms, and those that are not.
RHD Road User Cost Annual Report, 2005 estimated the accident cost including damage
to property and vehicles, health service, ambulance and police costs, and loss of
production due to victims are being unable to work. However, the report may be used for
accident cost analysis for rail project appraisal.
4.1.4 Land acquisition and resettlement
The preparation of a project appraisal will include a reconnaissance physical survey along
the proposed route with a detailed map showing existing rail alignments. During this
survey a preliminary alignment and land take requirement will be estimated. Based on the
land requirement value judgment would be needed for scoring the value of the indicator.
Data on resettlement should be based on specific field surveys. The appraisal process
should also identify all human settlements, which will be affected by the railway
alignment. It is also necessary to make an estimate of the number of people to be resettled
with detailed indications for the calculation of this indicator.
4.2 Socioeconomic (Equity) Considerations
Equity indicators would be intended to help in decision making such that the impact of
any project towards more equitable distribution of project benefits would ensure across
different income groups, regions, genders and also across generations (i.e. to ensure
sustainability). In order to determine the impact of a project on poverty alleviation and
social development a number of indicators need to be identified which need to be
quantified. This would be involved value judgment. However, these values would not be
included in the cost-benefit analysis.
4.3 Wider Economic Impacts and Economic Regeneration
In many countries, the main motivation behind a transport project is the encouragement
of economic development and the promotion of particular patterns of land use. Thus for
instance revival/re-commissioning of railway line would promote economic activity in
those areas, particularly, railway station based business, creation of jobs and increase of
domestic trade. The construction of Padma Bridge with the Rail Bridge option is a major
initiative in the recent time. This initiative will open up the new opportunities for railway
extension to southern part as well as south-west part of Bangladesh.
5. Conclusions
This conceptual guideline addressed the key issues that should be considered in
appraising rail investment projects in Bangladesh. This has consulted the proven body of
literature practiced in rail project planning and appraisal. It has demonstrated the concept
of economic efficiency requires stream of costs and benefits flow to be measured in terms
money value. Economic efficiency should also be supplemented with socioeconomic
11
equity criteria. The equity benefits require value judgment and need to be incorporated to
strengthen the argument for social benefits of the proposed project. So, therefore, all the
benefits and costs were valued in money terms, and then one could simply calculate the
NPV or EIRR of the project using the technique of discounting for time.
TA-7388-BAN: Capacity Building and Support to Transport Sector Coordination Wing of Planning Commission
Final Report: April 2012
6011001.000
Appendix F
Conceptual Project Appraisal Framework: IWT
o
Conceptual Project Appraisal
Framework
IWTA Sector Manual
Transport Sector Coordination Wing
Planning Commission
Government of the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh
December 2011
[Type text]
[Type text]
1.0 Introduction
This conceptual guideline for project appraisal (CGPA) has been designed to assist Inland Waterway
Transport (IWT) Sector agencies like BIWTA, BIWTC and Department of Shipping under the Ministry of
Shipping in preparation of development projects for public sector investment. It is felt that the CGPA
could be necessary tool for project appraisal in IWT sector in Bangladesh to maintain a uniform practice
of systematic project preparation. It is understood that the sector lacks established data bases for
activities and resources necessary for project preparation. The absence of any approved Project
Appraisal Guideline for IWT sector leads the project preparation heterogeneous which lack
comparability and reliability. As a result adequate statistical analysis cannot be made based either on
scanty data or assumed (manipulated) data. This guideline will encourage the agencies to collect and use
updated objective data and information for a specific project and provide framework for undertaking
basic statistical analysis. The CGPA can be improved in future as the ongoing progress is continued for
data collection to establish GIS and other attribute databases and procurement of analysis software by
agencies. This CGPA is comparable with road sector PAF jointly developed by TSMR project and TSCW. It
is found that the practice of PAF for road sub-sector has brought about comprehensive disciplines and
standardization in preparation and appraisal of road sector projects. However, this CGPA was developed
in consultation with the road sector PAF.
2.0 IWT Appraisal Indicators
The CGPA has adopted two sets of indicators for appraising the IWT projects – equity indicators and
efficiency indicators. Equity indicators provide the socioeconomic impact of the project and efficiency
indicators provide the economic costs, benefits and internal profitability of the project investment.
Equity indicators are derived from the national planning objectives emphasized on the poverty
reduction, participation and social development. Each indicator is given score in the scale of 0-10 points
reflecting the worst and best case. So that desirable projects get higher score than less desirable
projects. Once the indicators are given score in a consistent manner they are weighted in proportion to
their perceived importance towards fulfilling national policy objectives. Following sections describe the
nature and technique of quantification and measurements of the indicators.
2.1 Equity Indicators
Equity indicators measure socioeconomic impact of proposed project considering: percentage of poor
people in the zone of influence, share of poor and women among the users, job created for local people
including poor and women, land acquisition and resettlement needs of the project. Some of the
indicators measure positive impacts of the project and others may impact adversely such as land take
and eviction of settlements. Most of the equity indicators are commonly used in IWT projects but in
specific cases some of the indicators may not be applicable. Equity indicators are mainly considered for
showing the impact of the project and equitable distribution of benefits across the income groups,
regions, genders and also generations. Table 2.1 describes the objective, impact, quantitative
assessment and weight of Indicators.
Table 2.1: Equity Indicators
[Type text]
Broad
Objective
Objective Sub-objective Impact Indicator Quantitative
Assessment
Weight
Equity Social and
Economic
Development
(SED)
Pro-poor
economic
growth
(SED1A)
Poor people in
the ZOI(SED1A)
% of poor people
in ZOI
1.0
Poor among
users (SED1B)
% of poor among
the user
0.6
Job creation for
local people
(SED1C)
% of local people
among employed
0.6
Gender Equity
(SED2)
Women among
users (SED 2A)
% of women
among total users
0.5
Job created for
women (SED2B)
% of women
among workers
0.5
Resettlement
(RTM)
Reducing the
Impact of
Resettlement
RTM
Total land take
(RTM1A)
Amount of land
take (hectare)
1.0
People to be
resettled
(RTM1B)
Number of
people to be
settled
0.8
Note: Total weight of the equity indicators is 5.0
2.1.1 SED1A: Poor people in the Zone of Influence (ZOI)
Procedure
The method of calculating value of this indicator will involve tabulation of some basic demographic data
in the format shown in table 2.2. The information/data required for the highlighted cells are obtained
from published sources whereas the rest are derived by calculation. Some of the data are enclosed with
this manual. Calculations are given below:
Table 2.2: Calculation of SED1A Indicator
Upazila/
District
Area (A) Population
(B)
Population
Density
(C=B/A)
% of poor
people in
upazila
(D)
Area
within
ZOI in sq.
km (E)
Population
In the ZOI
(F=C*E)
Number
of poor
people
(G=F*D)
Total
%ofpoorpeopleinZOI =TotalpoorpopulationinZOI(i. e. sumofCol. G)
�������� ���!�"!"�ℎ$%&'(!. $. ( )�*+��. ,)-100
ZOI of scheme can be defined based on the class of IWT route and nature of the scheme. The following
Table 2.3 may be consulted during calculation.
[Type text]
Table2.3: ZOI for different IWT routes/schemes
Scheme/Route ZOI (districts/upazilas)
Class-I
Class-II
Class-III
Class-IV
Ghat/infrastructure
Calculation of SED1A: following formula is used
SED1A =4567849:;<=9:>
?@AB@8?CDEAFCDG-10
Where: P ZOI = percentage of poor people in the ZOI (calculated from table 2.2)
P national = national average poverty percentage (upper poverty line)
P high = highest incidence of poverty in any upazila in the country
According to national poverty statistics (2010) the recommended values of P high and P national are 71 and 42
respectively. The highest and lowest threshold values are 10 and 0 for this indicator. Any value greater than 10 will
be considered as 10 and any negative value will be considered as 0.
2.1.2 Poor people among the IWT users
Three sets of data will be required to calculate this indicator included are traffic count data by vessel
type, average occupancy of seat/capacity and data for percentage of poor people among the occupants.
Project preparation team will collect these data from field survey or BIWTA will provide necessary
occupancy data for each class of vessels by route-class. Data reports to be prepared while completed
data collection surveys and established comprehensive data bases. Highlighted cells are to be provided
by survey or collected from secondary sources while others need to be calculated. The format shown in
table 2.4 can be used for calculating the indicator.
Table 2.4: Format to calculate % of poor among the users
Vessel type AADT /Annual
Trip (A)
Average
Occupancy (B)
Total Users
(C=A*B)
% of Poor (D) Number of
poor users
(E=C*D)
Passenger
Steamer
Passenger
Launch
Coastal Vessels
Sea Truck
Ferries
Total
[Type text]
The percentage of poor among total users can be calculated by dividing total of column E by that of
column C.
Scoring: the more a project is to be used by the poor the project is more qualified for funding support.
The highest percentage of poor has been set at 30% for full score of 10 point. If the value of score
becomes more than 10 by any calculation should be considered 10.
2.1.3 Job creation for local people
Job creation for local people directly or indirectly is one of the objectives of project development. In IWT
sector many of the projects works are mechanized such as capital dredging projects, procurement of
equipment and ships, as a result the scope for direct employment of local people seems limited.
However, some projects inspire creation of job opportunities for local people as direct labour or
indirectly such as opportunities of small business. Information on job can be collected from
contractors/BIWTA.
The value of this indicator is adopted as between 0-10. To derive the value of the indicator, information
on total employment and percentage of local people employed to be collected. For calculating the score
% of local people employed to be divided by 10.
2.1.4 Percentage of women among the users
This information can be derived from traffic and occupancy surveys of IWT passenger vessels. BIWTA
should have this basic data in their database. To calculate the value of this indicator following table 2.5
may be used:
Table 2.5: Format for calculating percentage of women among total passengers
Vessel Type AADT (A) Average
occupancy (B)
Total number
of users
(C=A*B)
% of Women
(D)
Number of
women users
(E=C*D)
Passenger
Steamer
Passenger
Launch
Coastal Vessels
Sea Truck
Ferries
Total
The percentage of women among the total users can be calculated by dividing total of column E by that
of column C. The value of this indicator is adopted ranges between 0-10.
Scoring: to calculate score of this indicator, please divide percentage of women users by 3. If the
indicator scores above 10 it should be treated as 10.
[Type text]
2.1.5 Percentage of jobs created for women
Data on the employment of women can be collected either through interview of contractors or from
BIWTA database report.
The value of this indicator is adopted as 0-10. To derive the value of the indicator, information on total
employment and percentage of unskilled women employed to be collected. For calculating the score of
this indicator, % of women among employed unskilled labour force to be divided by 5.
2.1.6 RTM1A: Land acquisition and Resettlement
Most of the physical construction projects require land for its implementation. Sources of land can be
government owned public land/khas land or privately owned land. Project preparation and appraisal of
IWT sector should indicate the possible land take required for the project showing in maps. During the
preparatory survey the people involved should visit the project site and make reconnaissance survey for
land availability and acquisition. In case of IWT sector the cases for land take could be minimum as the
river, water bodies, their banks and shores, etc are owned by the government. However, the project
document should include the land requirement, if any and acquisition and resettlement costs.
The value of this indicator ranges between 0-10. The score can be obtained from the following formula:
H�I1J(+�K$ =LM=N9;=O>:9P;:QR<9SRT;:UR
?VFWXYEYFZEAC[\.]VFVX-10
Value may be negative in certain cases.
2.1.7 RTM 1B: Number of people to be resettled
Resettlement of affected persons should be assessed following the government rules. Data should be
based on specific field surveys. The appraisal process should also be identified all human settlements
affected by the project. The value of the indicator ranges between 0- 10.
It assumes 25 persons affected per Tk. 10.0 crore investments is the worst condition. The scoring of this
indicator can be calculated following the formula given below:
H�I1^(+�K$ = 10 −`NMaRU=ObR=b>R;=aRURcR;;>RP
?VFWXYEACYVFVX[\.-4
2.2 Efficiency (Economic) Indicators
Efficiency indicators are important to appraise a project for examining the economic strength and worth
of the project justifying the investment. Five indicators have been identified for measuring efficiency of
a project including transport efficiency, reliability, funding, multimodal integration and safety. Indicators
are summarized in Table 2.6 below together with their relevant objectives:
[Type text]
Table 2.6: Efficiency Indicators for IWT Sector
Broad
Objective
Objective Sub-objective Impact
Indicator
Quantitative
Assessment
Weight
Efficiency Transport
Efficiency (TRE)
Economic
Efficiency
(TRE1)
Economic
internal rate of
return
(EIRR)(TRE1A)
EIRR in % 3
Reliability
(TRE2)
Availability and
dependability
(TRE2A)
Availability and
timely journey
0.5
Funding Private Sector
Finance
Financial rate
of return (FIRR)
(FIA1A)
FIRR (%) 0
Multimodal
Integration
Integration
with rail and
road
EIRR for
integration
EIRR (%) 0.5
Navigability Round the year
navigability
Seasonal
disruption of
traffic
Number of
days
0.5
Safety Safety in
transit and on-
board
Accident
reduction
% of accident
reduced
0.5
Note: total weight of efficiency indicators is 5
2.2.1 Transport Cost Benefit Analysis
The cost benefit analysis is the core of a project evaluation. A simplified appraisal method is developed
for evaluating all types of IWT projects and presented in Appendix-5. The classification of IWT projects
could be as follows:
• Dredging of river or channels maintaining navigability (capital dredging)
• Dredging for channels for maintenance of waterways (maintenance dredging)
• Construction of ferry ghats, jetties and terminals
• Construction of steamer /major launch ghats and landing stations
• Construction of launch landing stations
• Construction of IWT container terminal
• Procurement/construction of container ships
• Improvement of boat landing stations
• Procurements/ construction of vessels, pontoons, jetties
• Procurement of equipment for dredging and conservancy
• Undertaking hydrographic surveys and studies
• Institutional and capacity building project
[Type text]
For appraisal of project two cases needed to be prepared for comparison - base case and project case.
First of all, one has to understand that what problem the proposed project/scheme is intended to solve.
Once the problems are known then cost and benefits of problems can be identified and assigned
monetary values. Identification of costs and benefits streams is the main components in appraising an
investment project.
Typical cost streams of an IWT project include:
• Construction/dredging costs
• Procurement/import cost
• Operation and Maintenance costs
• Land acquisition and resettlement costs
• Environmental and social impact mitigation costs (where applicable)
• and so on
Typical benefit streams include:
• vessel operating cost (VOC) saving
• travel time cost (TTC) saving
• accident cost saving (if any)
• environmental and other benefits
• multimodal cost saving
The values of costs and benefits have to be calculated for each year of the implementation period as
well as for each year of the analysis period, usually considered to be 20 years. The cost and benefits then
are to be discounted to take into account of the time value of money. Following formula will be followed
for discounting for time value of money:
ef =gN
(hiV)C
Where:
Vd = discounted value
Vu= undiscounted value
r = discount rate/ interest rate
n= number of year
After tabulating these values, the EIRR can be calculated by using appropriate command in the
spreadsheet applications in Excel. Other economic indicators like Net present Value (NPV) and benefit –
cost ratio (BCR) should also be calculated. For the purpose of IWT PAF the EIRR indicator will be used.
The score of this indicator is:
[Type text]
TRE1A = EIRR in percent – discount rate
The value of this indicator ranges between 0 - 10. Value more than 10 will be treated as 10.
2.2.2 TRE 1B: Reliability Indicator
Reliability of IWT services is an important indicator which indicates two things – availability of services in
all seasons and at regular time interval. Presently, many of the services remain closed during dry season
due to lack of navigability of the channel. Class III and Class IV routes mostly fall under this category. In
order to assess the reliability of transport facility, one has to know how many days in a year the service
is not available. The data can be collected through survey and interview with local people or from
BIWTA records. The value of this indicator ranges between 0-10.
To calculate the score for this indicator the number of additional days has to be divided by 5. The best
illustration of project scheme improves availability of 50 additional days in a year. Therefore, to get
the highest score of 10 the number of additional days has to be divided by 5.
2.2.3 FIA1: Funding Indicators
Funding indicators are relevant for appraising project in case of private sector investment in
infrastructure. In such case financial internal rate of return (FIRR) needs to be calculated. The calculation
procedures involve the costs and benefits streams remaining the same as EIRR calculations but relevant
sources and recipients will be different in many cases. In cost stream only financial costs are relevant.
Economic costs, social costs, transfer payment, unless reflected in the financial cost will not be of
concern. The benefit values similarly will only take into account of profits likely to be accrued to the
private investors only.
Once the costs and benefit streams are calculated for each year of analysis period, these should be used
calculating financial internal rate of return (FIIR) similarly as economic analysis.
In private sector financed infrastructure project financial benefits are estimated on the basis of tolls
imposition on vessels/vehicles, goods and passengers. Therefore, the impacts of tolls on the growth of
traffic should be assessed.
The value of the indicator will be between 0 -10. The following equation will be used for calculating the
score of the indicator.
Funding Indicator = FIRR/2
2.2.4 Multimodal Integration
The multimodal integration in case of IWT project should consider the possibility of integrating the
impacts of the project on neighboring rail and road. For grater impacts on the transportation system if
small projects / project works are needed those should be included within the project cost. The
additional costs and benefits for multimodal integration are to be identified separately and economic
analysis and calculation of EIRR also to be done properly both separately as well as jointly with the main
[Type text]
IWT project. The multimodal integration will consider only multimodal connection between modes not
the integration of logistics and services.
The procedure for calculating costs and benefits of integration of other modes will follow the same
procedure as in the main project.
An example of sample case is presented in Appendix-5.
2.2.5 SAF 1: Safety Indicator
Safety in transit has become a major concern worldwide in recent decades due to huge number of
deaths (1.2 million, 2003) and casualties every year caused by road and other transport related
accidents. This unwanted loss of lives and fatalities costs enormous amount of money, resources and
irreparable loss to the families of diseased or injured persons. Safety indicators are important for all
transport modes but in the context of Bangladesh it is more for road than other modes. Consequently,
the safety indicator has become an integral part of the appraisal system particularly for road design.
The safety concern in IWT normally arises because of natural calamities and lack of weather forecast,
lack of awareness of the captains, lack of proper marking for night sailing and fault of pilots. The
appraisal should identify the locations where the incidences of different kinds of accidents have
occurred. BIWTA should have identified the accident black spots particularly in main perennial routes
and should have system of collecting accident data on regular basis mentioning the reasons for accident
and measures taken to prevent such accidents.
2.3 Other Indicators
There may be other project specific indicators such as external factors of cross border flows, artificial
barriers, dams for withdrawal of water, etc.
3.0 Weightage
Weightage of the indicators are shown in the table in Appendix 1. Once the score of individual indicators
are calculated they have to be multiplied by the respective weightages.
Once total scores are converted by using the weightages they will have to be added up to estimate the
score of a project. The quantitative scores should also be entered in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST).
[Type text]
4.0 Appendix 1: Impact Indicators
Broad
Objective
Objective Sub-objective Impact Indicator Quantitative
Assessment
Weight
Equity Social and
Economic
Development
(SED)
Pro-poor
economic
growth
(SED1A)
Poor people in
the ZOI(SED1A)
% of poor people
in ZOI
1.0
Poor among
users (SED1B)
% of poor among
the user
0.6
Job creation for
local people
(SED1C)
% of local people
among employed
0.6
Gender Equity
(SED2)
Women among
users (SED 2A)
% of women
among total users
0.5
Job created for
women (SED2B)
% of women
among workers
0.5
People to be
resettled
(RTM1B)
Number of
people to be
settled
0.8
Efficiency Transport
Efficiency
(TRE)
Economic
Efficiency
(TRE1)
Economic
internal rate of
return
(EIRR)(TRE1A)
EIRR in % 3
Reliability
(TRE2)
Availability and
dependability
(TRE2A)
Availability and
timely journey
0.5
Funding Private Sector
Finance
Financial rate of
return (FIRR)
(FIA1A)
FIRR (%) 0
Multimodal
Integration
Integration
with rail and
road
EIRR for
integration
EIRR (%) 0.5
Navigability Round the year
navigability
Seasonal
disruption of
traffic
Number of days 0.5
Safety Safety in transit
and on-board
Accident
reduction
% of accident
reduced
0.5
Note: value of total weight of indicators is 10
[Type text]
5.0 Appendix 2: Appraisal Summary Table (AST)
Broad
Objective
Objective Sub-objective Quantitative
Assessment
Social Score
(SS=RS applied
on formula)
Weighted Score
(WS = CS times
respective
weightage)
Equity Social and
Economic
Development
(SED)
Pro-poor
economic
growth
(SED1A)
% of poor people
in ZOI
% of poor among
the user
% of local people
among employed
Gender Equity
(SED2)
% of women
among total
users
% of women
among workers
Number of
people to be
settled
Efficiency Transport
Efficiency
(TRE)
Economic
Efficiency
(TRE1)
EIRR in %
Reliability
(TRE2)
Availability and
timely journey
Funding Private Sector
Finance
FIRR (%)
Multimodal
Integration
Integration
with rail and
road
EIRR (%)
Navigability Round the year
navigability
Number of days
Safety Safety in transit
and on-board
% of accident
reduced
Appendix-3
[Type text]
6.0 Appendix 3: Guidelines for Decision Making
Once the project appraisal report is finalized and the AST is prepared, the score can be interpreted in the
following table:
Score Ranges Interpretation
50 and above Very good
40-50 Fair
35-40 Poor
Below 35 Very poor
Appraiser should also do the following:
• Relative contribution of the project to equity and efficiency can be assessed by comparing the
scores in the equity and efficiency part.
• For extreme values, please evaluate and describe observed reasons.
• As regards the subjective indicators, a brief summary may be helpful.
Decision Making
The selected project must be economically viable and socially desirable as necessary condition but not
sufficient to be prioritized. The selection procedure will scrutinize and compare the scores of other
projects too in the list and available resources to implement the projects. Priority of the projects will
depend on relative scores of the projects. The conditions of funding may be as follow:
• The project scores better than all rejected projects
• Adequate fund is available to implement the project in time
• The project is at least fair as per the ranges provided in the score table.
Note:
• If none of the projects are found to be at least in the fair range it will mean that more effort s
are needed to identify good projects so that these could contribute to the development process
of the country.
[Type text]
7.0 Appendix 4: Pro-forma of the Appraisal Report
8.0 Appendix 5: Appraisal Guidelines (Case Study-IWT project)
Table of Contents:
Part I: Project Description
Project Title
Implementing Agency
Location Map
Problems and objectives
Identification and Assessment of Options
Description of Preferred Option
Cost estimate
Part II: Appraisal against PAF Indicators
Poor people in project area of influence
Poor people among project users
Job creation for local people
Job creation for women
Land acquisition required
Resettlement
Cost –benefit analysis
Reliability
Funding potential
Multi-modal integration
Safety
Presentation of Summary Appraisal Table
Conclusion
[Type text]
Part I: Project Description
1. Project Title: Dredging 12 (twelve) Important River Routes
2. Implementing Agency: Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), Ministry
of Shipping and IWT
3. Location and location Map: Location map attached
Table 3.1: Project Area
Division District Upazila
Dhaka Manikganj, Munshiganj,
Gopalganj,Narayanganj,
Narshingdi, Madraipur,
Shariatpur
Shibalaya, Munshiganj, Gazaria, Gopalganj
Sadar, Narayanganj, Demra, Narshingdi,
Noria, Zazira, Sureswar, Shariatpur,
Madaripur sadar and Kalkini.
Barisal Barisal and Pirojpur Muladi, Uzirpur and Pirojpur
Comilla Comilla Daudkandi, Meghna
Rajshahi Pabna and Sirajganj Sirajganj, Bera and Shahjadpur
4. Problems and objectives:
(a) Background:
The waterway is one of the important, cheaper and natural transport modes in Bangladesh. But the
rivers as well as inland waterways network are gradually deteriorating due to several reasons such as: (i)
stream flow reduction; (ii) reduction in cross – boundary flow; (iii) silting up of off-takes; (iv) reduction of
tidal volumes, etc. As a result the length of navigable waterways has become drastically decreased
particularly during dry seasons. Therefore, to revive the serviceability of the water sector transport the
proposed 12 important waterways in the central and southwest regions should be improved to make
round the year navigable.
(b) Main Objective:
To develop navigability of 12 (twelve) river routes by dredging for ensuring smooth and safe movement
of water crafts (both cargo and passenger carrying vessels)
(c) Specific objectives:
(1). Opening up of 187 km long Dhaka-Taltala- Dohar- Zazira- Madaripur- Kabirajpur- Chowdhury
hat/ Peajkhali- Charjanajat/Keorakandi waterway in the rivers Ichamati, Padma and Arialkhan
to maintain 1.83 m draft for vessels;
(2). Maintaining up to 2.44 m draft for carrying cargo vessels by opening up stretches of 25 km
waterways: Laharhat- Veduria ;
(3) Maintain up to 2.44 m draft for carrying cargo vessels by opening up 30 km waterways:
Shahaberhat- Tungibari- Laharhat;
[Type text]
(4). Opening up 35 km Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia (Ashulia) section of the Turag river for cargo
vessels maintaining 1.85 m draft;
(5). Removal of seasonally created shoals in the ferry route Paturia-Baghabari ensuring movement
of 1.99 m draft vessels round the year;
(6). Maintaining proper navigability of 38 km river route Demra- Ghorasal- Palash for smooth
movement of cargo vessels of 2.44 m draft throughout the year;
(7). Maintaining proper navigability of 71 km river route Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj for cargo
vessels and oil tankers of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year fuel supply to proposed
Haridaspur power plant;
(8). Maintaining proper navigability of 40 km river route Narayanganj-Dadkandi for cargo vessels
and oil tankers of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year fuel supply to proposed Titus power
plant at Daudkandi;
(9-12). Maintaining proper navigability of 122 km, 100 km, 120 km and 140 km river routes Dhaka-
Ramchar- Madaripur, Dhaka- Shariatpur, Chandpur- Nandirbazar- shikarpur- Hularhat and
Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria-Madaripur for vessels of 2.44 m draft ensuring round the year
movement.
5. Identification and Assessment of Options
The number 1 proposed route is 187 km long consisting of flows on Ichamati, Padma, Arialkhan and
Shitalakhya rivers which carries 56,000 passengers and 1.83 lakh metric tons of goods and cargo per
annum (BIWTA Annual Report). Different types of river craft use the route include small cargo vessels,
engine boats and trawlers. The numbers are estimated to be 1000, 1100 and 12500 respectively. The
route serves the rural areas around Dhaka providing supplies of daily necessities like rice, paddy, milk,
fish and vegetables to the metropolis and getting supplies of essential commodities from Dhaka. The
route has become seasonal because of river siltation and transport services are available only during
monsoon. BIWTA has completed hydrographic survey of the route in 2009 (Report enclosed). Dredging
of 110.0 lac m3 of earth will remove different shoals en-route and make the channel 2.44m deep for all
seasons so that 1.83 m draft vessels could ply round the year. The second and third projects will
consisted of dredging 55 km of Tetulia river to facilitate carrying passengers and goods by single and
double decker launches and cargo vessels in all seasons. It was estimated that the route carries 24.85 lac
passenger and 2.10 lac tons of cargo annually. The 4th route is part of Dhaka Circular route which is also
operated seasonally carrying 11.0 lac passengers and 15.0 lac tons of goods annually. Round the year
navigability will encourage introduction of regular passenger boat services help reducing congestion in
the city streets. The 5th project is keeping navigation channel of the Jamuna river open round the year to
carry fuel, fertilizer, food grain, etc crucial agriculture inputs from Dhaka, Chittagong and Mongla to
Baghabari. 6th scheme of the project is dredging 38 km of river route to ensuring navigability of
Shitalakhya river serving jute, textile, fertilizer and other heavy industries alongside the banks from
[Type text]
Narayanganj up to Palash. It was reported that 36.14 lac tons of goods are transported by 7000 cargo
vessels through this route annually. The 7th and 8th schemes of the project are newly proposed routes fo
facilitate carrying fuel to upcoming two power plants at Gopalganj and Daudkandi. The 9th scheme of
the project is to develop navigability of 122 km of Dhaka- Madaripur route in the river Arial Kha
removing shoals at different places. It is estimated that the route carries 4.10 lac passengers and 0.26
lac tons of cargo by using 2000 vessels per annum. The 10th scheme of the project is to increase draft in
100 km of the Padma river to 3.04 m removing shoals at different places to retain navigability during low
tide situation. It was estimated that 3.63 lac of passengers and 0.17 lac tons of cargo is transported
annually through this route. The scheme 11th and 12th are dredging of 120 km of Chandpur-Hularhat and
140 km of Dhaka-Angaria-Madaripur river routes to 3.04 m draft to facilitate all types of vessels during
dry season and in low tide situation. Both of these routes are important for the people of the area as
they have no alternative to rivers. It is estimated that these routes carry 81.03 lac tons of cargo and 5.48
lac of passengers annually by 13000 trips of launches and 18000 trips of cargo vessels. In spite of these
thousands of country boats and trawlers ply the routes every year.
6. Description of Work
Proposed capital dredging will be implemented for 953 km of river channel at depths of 2.44 m and 3.04
m depending on the nature and class of routes in 5 years. The duration of project is 2011-2016. The
physical works of the project will be implemented simultaneously in all major routes engaging both
private and public sector equipment following the hydrographic survey report and recommendations.
The estimated dredging quantity will be 316 lac m3. Table 6.1 presents the estimated dredging quantity.
Table 6.1: Dredging Requirements Proposed:
Sl. Dredging routes Name of river Route
Length (km)
Dredging Qty.
(in lac m3)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Dhaka-Taltala-peajkhali-Keorakandi
Laharhat- Veduria
Shahaberhat-Tungibari-Laharhat
Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia (Ashulia)
Paturia-Baghabari
Demra-Ghorashal-Palash
Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj
Narayanganj-Daudkandi
Dhaka-Ramchar-Madaripur
Dhaka-Shariatpur
Chandpur-Nandirbazar- Shikarpur-
Hularhat
Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria- Madaripur
Ichamati
Tetulia/Arialkha
Tetulia
Turag
Jamuna
Shitalakhya
Kaliganga/Madhumati
Meghna/Shitalakhya
Arialkha
Padma
Dakatia/Shandhya
Padma/Dupaldia
187
25
30
35
45
38
71
40
122
100
120
140
111.0
15.0
16.0
15.0
15.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
15.0
30.0
15.0
48.0
Total 953.0 316.0
Source: BIWTA Hydrographic Survey, 2010
[Type text]
7. Cost estimate
Total estimated cost of the project is Tk. 508.46 crore. The estimates were prepared on the basis of 2010
market price. The costs include manpower, consultancy, engineering survey and design, physical work,
equipment, administrative and contingencies. Table 7.1 presents the cost estimate.
Table 7.1: Cost Estimate
Items Amount Unit Rate (lac Tk.) Total (lac Tk.)
Manpower Salaries 260.00
Land Acquisition/lease 3000.00
Crop Compensation 40.00
Consultancy Fee 200.00
Engineering Survey 100.00
Construction of earthen
dykes
1350.00
Dredging work by dredger
(private dredger)
28500.00
Dredging work by BIWTA
dredger
15120.00
Ancillary work 200.00
Hydrographic survey 200.00
Computer with printer and
accessories (6 no.)
10.00
House boat, pick up and
jeep
375.00
Contingency (other misc.
costs)
20.00
Price contingency (3%
under capital component)
1480.00
Total 50846.00
Source: BIWTA, 2010
Part II: Appraisal against PAF Indicators
8. SED1A: Percent of Poor people in project area of influence (Zone of influence)
Since the proposed river routes dredging involve class II and class III routes for regional category mostly
serves rural centers, ghats/hats and carrying mostly agriculture produces to the consumption centers
the zone of influence can be considered 3 km both sides of the routes (Table 3.1). Determination of ZOI
should be done through field survey. For simplicity let us suppose 10% of the area under project upazila
is included in ZOI. Upazila population, poverty statistics and other socioeconomic data can be collected
from Population Census and BBS publications. The rest of the information and data are calculated as per
guidelines of the IWT PAF. Following Table provide the calculation of the SED1A indicators:
[Type text]
Table 8.1: Calculation of SED1A Indicator
Upazila/Sub-
district
Area sq.
km (A)
Population
(B)
Population
density (C)
% of poor
people in
upazila (D)
Area
within
ZOI in sq
km (E)
Population
of ZOI
(F=C*E)
Number
of poor
people
(G=F*D)
Munshiganj 160.79 326,060 2028 27.95 16.07 32606 9113
Gazaria 130.92 137,660 1051 29.99 13.09 13766 3848
Gopalganj 391.35 320,340 819 29.59 39.13 32034 8954
Narayanganj 100.74 886,600 8801 29.76 10.07 88660 24780
Demra 51.1 421,540 8249 40.69 5.11 42154 11782
Narshighdi 213.44 582,020 2727 33.90 21.34 58202 16267
Noria 240.02 225,560 940 37.47 24.00 22556 6304
Zazira 239.53 186,720 780 39.18 23.95 18672 5219
Shariatpur 167.86 122,900 732 47.73 16.78 12290 3435
Madaripur 313.81 329,040 1049 30.84 31.38 32904 9197
Kalkini 279.98 272,120 972 36.79 27.99 27212 7606
Comilla 280.96 612,680 2181 25.18 28.09 61268 17124
Meghna 91.69 97,000 1058 51.80 9.16 9700 2711
Muladi 261.02 178,620 684 33.18 26.10 17862 4992
Uzirpur 248.35 242,720 977 33.31 24.83 24272 6784
Pirojpur 378.37 223,080 590 38.94 37.83 22308 6235
Sirajganj 325.77 469,780 1442 55.48 32.57 46078 13130
Bera 248.6 231,180 930 58.77 24.86 23118 6461
Shahjadpur 267.83 266,980 997 59.00 26.78 26698 7462
Total 4392.13 6132600 2227 40.8 613260 243352
Now basic score with respect to the SED1A indicator = 40.8%
The basic score is converted to scale score using the formula:
jkl1J'"f!+���K(+�K$ =4567849:;<=9:>
?@AB@8?CDEAFCDG-10
= (40-42)/ (70-42)*10
=-0.71
Since the resulted score is negative the value of the score should be considered zero as per PAF.
9. SED 1B: Poor people and women among project users
Three sets of data are necessary for calculating the SED2A indicator: passenger traffic data, passenger
occupancy data and percentage of poor people among the occupants for all classes of vessels. BIWTA
should have collected all necessary data on the subject organizing a crush program. In IWT passenger
vessels there has always been higher occupancy and crowded on board than the approved capacity.
During festivals and occasions the crafts carry much more passengers than the capacity of vessels.
[Type text]
Therefore, data should be collected through field surveys for accuracy rather than considering the
government approved capacity. Once the data is available then Table 2.5 in the PAF can be used to
calculate the indicator as follows.
Table 9.1: Format for calculating percentage of poor among total passengers
Vessel Type AADT /Annual
Vessel Trips (A)
Average
occupancy (B)
Total number
of users
(C=A*B)
% of poor
(D)
Number of
poor users
(E=C*D)
Passenger
Steamer
300 300 90000 40 36000
Passenger
Launch
1600 150 240000 50 120000
Coastal Vessels 200 150 30000 60 18000
Sea Truck 350 200 70000 60 42000
Ferries 15000 250 750000 30 225000
Engine Boat 500 50 25000 60 15000
Trawler 400 20 8000 70 5600
Total 1213000 38 461600
Note: Figures are assumed.
Now say, the basic score with respect to SED1B is = 461600/121300 = 38%
This basic score can be converted into a scaled score in the following way
SED1B Indicator Score = 38/3 = 12.66
It is >10, therefore the score adopted as 10.
10. SED 2B: Women among project users
There has been no survey on the women ridership in BIWTA. We can assume that at least 25% of all
users of IWT vessels and boats are women. Therefore, the basic score is 8.3.
11. Job creation for local people
It is assumed that most of the dredging work will be accomplished by automatic suction dredgers,
therefore, the local labour input will be minimum, say 20 percent. Local labour will be used only for
dressing and leveling the dumping sites. Therefore, the scaled score of this indicator is = 20/10 = 2.
Weighted scores are shown in AST.
12. Job creation for women
It is suggested that for dredging work the participation of women worker will be almost zero. Therefore,
as per PAF manual the scaled score against this indicator will be zero.
[Type text]
13. RTM1A: Land acquisition required
The proposal did not mention the amount of land required for implementing the project. The executing
agency (BIWTA) must do the proper survey and exercise to identify the land take required and prepare
land acquisition plan to confirm the land take proposals. However, total land take for the umbrella
project could be assumed 200 hectares, some of which will be taken for long term lease from the
government or private owners. The estimated cost for land take and resettlement is estimated Tk. 3000
lac. The calculation of the score may be presented as follows:
RTM1A score = 10 – (200/500) *10 = 10 -.4*10
= 10-4 = 6
The weighted score against this indicator is shown in the AST.
14. RTM1B: Number of people to be Resettled
The proposal must confirm the number of project affected persons (PAP) under different categories and
potential locations for resettlement through field surveys. This will follow the resettlement guidelines of
the government or major donor agencies like the World Bank and ADB. Let us assume that 500 persons/
household are required to be resettled in this case. Then the calculation the scaled score of the indicator
will be as follows:
TRM1B = 10 – (500/500) *4
= 10 – 4
= 6
The final weighted score is presented in the AST.
15. TRE 1A: Dredging IWT routes Cost - Benefit Analysis Indicator
14.1 Financial and Economic Cost
For cost benefit analysis, the planner must construct the costs and benefit streams of the project during
its economic life. The financial costs and benefits are to be converted to the economic costs and benefits
applying suitable social discount factor (SDF). Following table presents the cost stream, SDF, financial
and economic costs of the project.
Table 14.1: Financial and Economic Cost s
Items Amount Financial
Cost (in lac
Tk.)
SCF (%) Economic Cost
(in lac Tk.)
Manpower Salaries 260.00 0.85 221.00
Land Acquisition/lease 3000.00 0.85 2125.00
[Type text]
Crop Compensation 40.00 0.85 425.00
Consultancy Fee 200.00 0.85 34.00
Engineering Survey 100.00 0.85 170.00
Construction of earthen
dykes
1350.00 0.85 85.00
Dredging work by dredger
(private dredger)
28500.00 0.85 1147.50
Dredging work by BIWTA
dredger
15120.00 0.85 24225.00
Ancillary work 200.00 0.85 12852.00
Hydrographic survey 200.00 0.85 170.00
Computer with printer and
accessories (6 no.)
10.00 0.85 8.50
House boat, pick up and
jeep
375.00 0.85 318.75
Contingency (other misc.
costs)
20.00 0.85 17.00
Price contingency (3%
under capital component)
1480.00 0.85 1258.00
Total 50846.00 0.85 43226.75
The economic life of the project is considered 15 years with routine maintenance dredging.
14.2 Dredging Maintenance Cost
The nature of improvement work will be of capital dredging. It was assumed to take 5 years for
completing the capital dredging. The cost of capital dredging will be Tk. 508.4 crore spent in 5 year
period. After capital dredging finished, maintenance dredging will needed to be continued on regular
basis so that navigability can be maintained and retained in the river and services continued. Channel
maintenance and operation cost was estimated to be 25% of the investment cost per year (estimated
cost of BIWTA used after converting to economic cost).
14.3 Project Benefits:
The project benefits identified and mentioned in the project proposal (DPP) were as the improving
navigability of the identified 12 waterway routes throughout the year contributing cheaper transport of
passengers and goods. Transport project benefits usually accrued from saving of vessels operating costs
and travel time costs for passenger and cargo. The amount of benefits to be accrued from the project
were not identified by type of traffic, vessels and routes or quantified in any way. In DPP a crude
assumption of annual benefits of Tk. 1500 lac was made out of hunch without proper basis of
estimation. This was not proper act of project preparation and appraisal. The executing agency must do
proper research and exercise to identify and quantify each bit of benefits to be considered in the
economic analysis. However, the sample exercise followed the following procedure:
14.3.1 Traffic Identified (Annual)
[Type text]
1. Traffic in scheme 1 consists of 0.56 lac passengers and 1.83 lac tons of cargo carried by 1100
pass- vessels, 1100 cargo vessels and 12500 trawlers
2. Traffic in scheme 2 consists of 9.50 lac passengers and 0.10 lac tons of cargo carried by 26
launches x 365 day
3. Traffic in scheme 3 consisted of 3.06 lac passengers and 0.08 lac tons of cargo carried by 42
launches x 365 days
4. Traffic in scheme 4 consisted of 11.50 lac passengers and 15.60 lac tons of cargo carried by
4000 launch trips, 29000 cargo vessel trips and 11000 trawler trips
5. In scheme 5 there is no passenger traffic but 1.23 lac tons of cargo was carried by 392 cargo
vessels trips
6. No passenger traffic but 36.14 lac tons of cargo was carried by 7000 cargo vessel trips and 11000
trawler trips
7. 4.10 lakh passengers and 0.26 lakh tons of cargo is carried: 2000 vessels (launch, cargo and
trawlers use the route)
8. 3.63 lakh passengers and 0.17 lakh tons of cargo is carried: 2000 vessels (double and single
decker launches, cargo and engine boats are used)
9. Fuel transport for Proposed power plant at Gopalganj (not quantified)
10. Fuel transport for proposed power plant at Daudkandi (not quantified)
11. 5.48 lakh of passengers and 81.03 lakh tons of cargo was carried: 13000 trips of launches, 18000
trips of cargos and 7500 trips of trawlers are used.
12. Included in No 11.
Traffic on different routes is summarized in Table 14.3.1. Traffic projection was not made because
objective of the project is to retain the existing traffic from diversion in the face of depleting traffic
growth in those routes. Benefit calculation was therefore based on the existing traffic as presented in
the table.
Table 14.3.1: Summary of Traffic Data of 12 project Routes
Sl. Dredging routes Passenger
Traffic/year
(in lakh)
Cargo
Traffic/year
(in Lakh ton)
Number of vessels: launch,
cargo, trawler/engine
boat/year
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Dhaka-Taltala-peajkhali-
Keorakandi
Laharhat- Veduria
Shahaberhat-Tungibari-Laharhat
Sadarghat (Dhaka) – Berulia
Paturia-Baghabari
Demra-Ghorashal-Palash
Hularhat- Charchapila- Gopalganj
Narayanganj-Daudkandi
Dhaka-Ramchar-Madaripur
Dhaka-Shariatpur
Chandpur-Nandirbazar-
Shikarpur-Hularhat
0.56
9.50
3.06
11.50
-
-
-
-
4.10
3.63
5.48
1.83
0.10
0.80
15.60
1.23
36.14
-
-
0.26
0.17
81.03
1100, 1100, 12,500
26x365 (launch)
42x365 (launch)
4000, 29000, 11000
392 (ferry vessels)
0, 7000, 11000
-
-
2000
2000
13000, 18000, 7500 (trips)
[Type text]
12.
Dhaka- Sureswar- Angaria-
Madaripur
- - -
Total 40.89 137.16
14.3.2 Benefit Estimation:
Usually transport sector project benefits are generated from saving from vehicle/vessel operating cost
(VOC) and savings from travel time cost (TTC) of passenger and vehicles/vessels. But it can also be
calculated from savings of system cost from using alternative modes. Due to paucity of IWT data the
usual calculation of benefits could not be done from VOC and TTC savings of traffic used the routes.
Following table 14.3.2 provides the basis for system cost comparability in Bangladesh where per pass-
km and ton-km cost is presented for all three major modes-road, rail and IWT. The table indicates that
IWT is cheaper than both road and rail. In the present base case situation (do nothing option) the IWT
traffic will be diverted to road as there has been no viable rail available. In the project case (implement
dredging works) situation the traffic will be remained with IWT saving economic transport cost would
have incurred if road was used. Therefore benefits assessed is as system cost saved by using cheaper
mode IWT.
Table 14.3.2: Published cost data by mode
Variable Road Rail IWT
Cost ton-km (Tk.) 4.5 2.74 0.99
Cost pass-km
(TK.)
1.0 0.6 0.22
Speed (km) 45 35 10
Lead distance
(pass)
70 95 60
Lead distance
(cargo)
80 100 100
Source: TSCW Capacity Enhancement Project, 2011
Average lead distance in ITW for passenger could be as 95 km but cargo always has longer distance say
200 km for all routes; but the lead distance for proposed routes should be less as 60 km for passengers
and 80 km for cargo as those are local routes. The total volume of annual passenger traffic is therefore,
245.34 million pass-km and 1097.28 million ton-km (12 routes).
14.3.3 Traffic diversion and seasonality:
In the absence of dredging activities 40% of the traffic would be affected (7 months fully navigable and 5
months partly or fully closed) and diverted to road (rail not available) because of siltation and closer of
route. Therefore, annual cost savings will be:
Passenger’s savings (40%): 98.14 million pass-km x Tk. 0.78 = Tk. 76.55 million
Cargo cost savings (40%): 438.91 million ton-km x Tk. 3.51 = Tk.1540.58 million
[Type text]
Total Savings = Tk. 1617.13 million/year. However we can use the following comparative cost data for
economic analysis:
14.3.4 Economic Analysis
River dredging is an expensive exercise but very short lived in nature. It is not certain that whether next
monsoon flood will cause silted it again with higher rate of deposits. However, the project life can be
considered 15 years maximum with proper annual maintenance dredging. All costs and benefits are
presented in economic term and in Million Taka. Discount rate used was 12%. Economic analysis is
presented in Table 24.1 in the above.
The result of the economic analysis shows that the project is economically viable with 18% EIRR, positive
NPV at Tk. 71.58 million and 1.99 BC ratio. The results generated from derived data suggested that
indicators are robust to recommend the project investment.
Table 24.1: Economic Analysis of BIWTA 12 Route Dredging Project
Sl. No. Year Investment cost Maintenance cost Total Cost Passenger Cargo Total BenefitNet Benfit
1 2011 864.54 864.54 -864.54
2 2012 864.54 864.54 -864.54
3 2013 864.54 864.54 -864.54
4 2014 864.54 864.54 -864.54
5 2015 864.54 864.54 -864.54
6 2016 812.5 812.50 88.52 1629.10 1717.62 905.12
7 2017 812.5 812.50 92.95 1694.26 1787.21 974.71
8 2018 812.5 812.50 97.60 1762.03 1859.63 1047.13
9 2019 812.5 812.50 102.48 1832.51 1934.99 1122.49
10 2020 812.5 812.50 107.60 1905.81 2013.41 1200.91
11 2021 812.5 812.50 112.98 1982.04 2095.02 1282.52
12 2022 812.5 812.50 118.63 2061.33 2179.95 1367.45
13 2023 812.5 812.50 124.56 2143.78 2268.34 1455.84
14 2024 812.5 812.50 130.79 2229.53 2360.32 1547.82
15 2025 812.5 812.50 137.33 2318.71 2456.04 1643.54
16 2026 812.5 812.50 144.19 2411.46 2555.65 1743.15
17 2027 812.5 812.50 151.40 2507.92 2659.32 1846.82
18 2028 812.5 812.50 158.97 2608.24 2767.21 1954.71
19 2029 812.5 812.50 166.92 2712.57 2879.49 2066.99
20 812.5 812.50 175.27 2821.07 2996.34 2183.84
EIRR= 18%
NPV= $71.58
NPVc= $72.04
NPVb= $143.62
BCR= 1.99
Cost Stream Benefit Stream
[Type text]
A word of caution must be raised here regarding the plausibility of maintenance costs assumption. The
annual maintenance cost was estimated in DPP at par with annual investment which will gradually
surpass the annual investment amount later on.
16. TRE 1B: Reliability Indicator
It was informed that many of the secondary routes (Class III and class IV) such as Dhaka-Taltala-
Peajkhali- Madaripur, Dhaka- Berulia, Dhaka- Madaripur -Shariatpur, etc remained partially or fully
closed about 120 days minimum in a year during dry season. In other routes services are available but
take longer time to reach destination due to formation of shoals, low tide situations and detour routes.
The scheme will ensure the availability of services in all seasons. The score of indicator will be 120/5 =24
days. The score is therefore, 10 maximum.
17. Funding potential
Entire investment will be made by the government therefore, no private funding potentials were
evaluated on this point. Therefore, the value of this indicator is zero.
18. Multi-modal integration
The multimodal impact of the proposed scheme looks positive when traffic avail opportunities as
complementing services at cheaper costs but not in all cases. In some cases where river routes remain
closed, traffic used to divert to roads although in circuitous way with higher costs of transport.
Multimodal impacts for all 12 routes needs to be researched on case to case basis but apparently little
impact can be thought of.
19. Safety
IWT journey is always vulnerable and in the past there were several major accident killing hundreds of
people in southern coastal regions. But in recent years with advance warning system the situation has
improved to some extent. Lack of data unable the writer to calculate the value of this indicator.
Recently the road has proved to be more hazardous than waterway or rail and more safety effort is
needed in road sector. However, more safety measures particularly for night driving in IWT have to be
undertaken to secure IWT travels.
20. Presentation of Summary Appraisal Report
Following table presents the summary appraisal report. The weighted average score of the project is
44.90 which is rated a fair project not very good. The relative position of the project among the
competing projects in different transport projects will depend on scores of other projects and funding
situation for the sector.
Appraisal Summary Table (AST)
[Type text]
Broad
Objective
Objective Sub-objective Quantitative
Assessment
(Basic score)
Social Score
(SS=RS applied
on formula)
Weights
(Fixed)
Weighted Score
(WS = CS times
respective
weightage)
Equity Social and
Economic
Development
(SED)
Pro-poor
economic
growth
(SED1A)
% of poor
people in ZOI
40.8%
0 1.0 0
% of poor
among the user
38%
10 0.6 6
% of local
people among
employed
20%
2 0.6 1.2
Gender Equity
(SED2)
% of women
among total
users 25%
8.3 0.5 4.2
% of women
among workers
0%
0 0.5 0
Number of
people to be
settled 200
10 0.8 8
Efficiency Transport
Efficiency
(TRE)
Economic
Efficiency
(TRE1)
EIRR in %
18%
6 3.0 18
Reliability
(TRE2)
Availability and
timely journey
50%
5 0.5 2.5
Funding Private Sector
Finance
FIRR (%)
0%
0 0.0 0
Multimodal
Integration
Integration
with rail and
road
EIRR (%)
0%
0 0.5 0
Navigability Round the year
navigability
Number of days
24 days
10 0.5 5
Safety Safety in transit
and on-board
% of accident
reduced
0%
0 0.5 0
Total weighted Score: 44.90
Interpretation of Results
After completing all analysis and preparing and finalized the above project appraisal report in the AST
the interpretation can be made based on the score in the following table:
Score Ranges Interpretation
[Type text]
50 and above Very good
40-50 Fair
35-40 Poor
Below 35 Very poor
The overall score of the analysis is 44.90 out of 100 marks. The project is fairly good and can be
recommendation for implementation if fund is available and no competing projects in the sector.
Appendices:
Appendix-1: Project Area Map
Appendix-2: Project Profile
Appendix-3: BIWTA responsibility in terms of Database
It was reported that BIWTA lacks data bases and stopped collection of data particularly for traffic,
transport, operating cost, value of travel time, boat capacity and so on. For project preparation in its
true perspective the authority must initiate field surveys in the following areas:
• Collection of passenger and cargo traffic data by vessel type, by category, by commodity, by
origin and destination and compile traffic volumes by route;
• Collect passenger occupancy survey for all types of vessels and by route and identify % of poor
users;
• Collection of VOC for all types of vessels, calculate unit passenger cost (passenger-km cost), unit
freight cost (ton –km cost) and so on;
• Collect travel time data by type of craft and route both for passengers and cargo, calculate
travel time cost for them, assess time delay at alternative detour routes;
• Collect and compare unit costs of passenger- km and ton-km for different modes of transport
and relative fares and freight charges; and
• Calculate average travel distance by passengers (km) and cargo (km).
Appendix-4: Reference Table for Economic Analysis
Appendix 5: Statistical Data
Appendix 6: The steering Committee
Appendix 7: Technical Working Group