20/04/2017

Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY AUD/USD USD/CAD NZD/USD

“We’re still hugely vulnerable to political risks. Polling for the first round of the French election is hugely tight. We have no clear indication of how the drama in North Korea will play out. And those factors are more important to us than the ebb and flow of earnings news in the short term.“ - Christopher Jeffery, Legal & General Investment Management

Pair’s Outlook EUR/JPY retraced back from the bottom boundary of a longer-term

broadening wedge on Monday, suggesting that bulls may prevail for

the remaining trading week. The current upside volatility has already

moved the Euro through the weekly R1 and the monthly S1 circa

117.22. If no fundamentals change the pair’s direction today, a close

above this level is the most likely scenario. Technical indicators are

bearish in both shorter and longer term; nevertheless, it should be

taken into account that the Euro remains sensitive to any new

information regarding French elections on Sunday.

Traders’ Sentiment Market sentiment has remained at the same level as yesterday, with

70% of traders holding open positions. In addition, 65% of pending

orders are to buy the Euro.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Thursday, April 20, 2017 15:30 GMT EUR/JPY experiences strong upside volatility

Level Rationale

■ R3 118.36 50% Fibo

■ R2 117.80/92 20-day and 200-day SMAs

■ R1 117.00/26 61.8% Fibo, weekly R1, monthly S1

■ S1 116.21 Weekly PP

■ S2 115.81 Monthly S2

■ S3 114.95/74 Trend-line; weekly S1

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 40% 40% 48%

30% 12% 16% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Neutral Sell

ADX (14) Sell Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ → →

“Fundamentally, the Australian economy has suffered a fairly protracted decline which largely mirrors the fall in world commodity prices and the end of the super cycle. However, the Aussie Dollar has largely rejected the negative pressures due to the already steep decline.“ - Blackwell Global

Pair’s Outlook Following its massive plunge on Wednesday, the Aussie found support

at the monthly S1. Today, the pair has managed to push through the

weekly S1 to test the 100-day SMA. In case bulls manage to keep the

current price level, the pair may close above the latter; however, the

base scenario favours a close somewhere between the weekly S1 and

the 100-day SMA. Nevertheless, technical indicators are bearish,

indicating that the current upward momentum may only be a short

term correction.

Traders’ Sentiment Market sentiment has not changed since yesterday, as 51% of traders

are holding long positions. Meanwhile, 63% of pending orders are to

sell the pair.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Thursday, April 20, 2017 15:30 GMT AUD/USD finds support at monthly S1

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 2% 2% 0%

-26% -2% 4% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Buy Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Buy

Aggregate ↘ ↗ →

Level Rationale

■ R3 0.7620/28 55-day SMA; monthly PP; weekly R1

■ R2 0.7551/73 Weekly PP; 200-day SMA; 20-day SMA

■ R1 0.7506/25 Weekly S1; 100-day SMA

■ S1 0.7498/78 Monthly S1; March low; Bollinger band

■ S2 0.7429 Weekly S2

■ S3 0.7383/66 Weekly S3; monthly S2

“A drop in oil prices and reports that Canadian officials will try to tame the housing market sent USD/CAD close to 1.35 on Wednesday.” — Ashraf Laidi, Intermarket Strategy Ltd. (based on investing.com)

Pair’s Outlook By the middle of Thursday’s trading session the US Dollar remained

almost unchanged against the Canadian Dollar. The currency exchange

rate was fluctuating just above the combined support level of the

monthly R1 at 1.3481, upper Bollinger band at 1.3486 and the upper

trend line of the long term descending channel pattern at 1.3482. It is

highly possible that because this level has been broken the rate will

surge up to the weekly R2, which is located at the 1.3529 level.

However, for that to occur Loonie weakness has to persist.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders remain bearish, as 61% of open positions are short.

Meanwhile, 66% of set up orders are to sell the Buck.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Thursday, April 20, 2017 15:30 GMT USD/CAD reaches long term trend line

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.3632/43 Weekly R3; monthly R2

■ R2 1.3576 50.00% Fibo

■ R1 1.3529 Weekly R2

■ S1 1.3486/81 Bollinger band; long term trend line; monthly R1

■ S2 1.3429 Weekly R1

■ S3 1.3373/71 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -22% -16% -4%

-32% -22% -24% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Buy Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Sell Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy

Aggregate ↗ ↑ ↗

"The New Zealand dollar gained after consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace in five-and-a-half years in the first quarter of 2017.” — Rebecca Howard, New Zealand Herald

Pair’s Outlook During the first half of Thursday’s trading session the New Zealand

Dollar fluctuated against the Greenback in the range of two previous

trading sessions. The currency exchange rate fluctuated between the

weekly R1 at 0.7051 and the 20-day SMA at 0.70. Moreover, between

these two levels of significance was located the monthly PP at 0.7033.

It is most likely that the rate will move higher eventually, as the Kiwi

gains strength and the Buck loses value. However, from a technical

perspective the rate faces a very strong resistance cluster from 0.7050

to 0.7090 levels.

Traders’ Sentiment Traders remain bullish on the Kiwi, as 55% of open positions are long

and 55% of trader set up orders are to buy.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Thursday, April 20, 2017 15:30 GMT Kiwi remains in previous range

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 10% 12% 14%

10% 14% -8% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell

CCI (14) Sell Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Sell Neutral

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy

Aggregate → ↘ →

Level Rationale

■ R3 0.7134/38 38.20% Fibo; 200-day SMA

■ R2 0.7072/88 55 and 100-day SMAs; weekly R2

■ R1 0.7033/59 Monthly PP; weekly R1; Bollinger band

■ S1 0.7000/0.6981 20-day SMA; weekly PP

■ S2 0.6944/40 Weekly S1; Bollinger band

■ S3 0.6914 Long term trend line

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

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