Technical Analysis · 25/04/2016 Technical Analysis EUR/USD GP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD ... case the...
Transcript of Technical Analysis · 25/04/2016 Technical Analysis EUR/USD GP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD ... case the...
25/04/2016
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD
“Markets are convinced that the ECB will do more if it becomes necessary.” - Mizuho Corporate Bank (based on Reuters)
EUR/USD at 4-week low, supported by 1.1220
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.1403 Bollinger band
■ R2 1.1341 Weekly R1
■ R1 1.1279/88 Weekly PP; 20-day SMA
■ S1 1.1204/1.1192 Monthly PP; 55-day SMA
■ S2 1.1173/61 Bollinger band; weekly S1
■ S3 1.1099 Weekly S2
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions -12% -16% -16% -16%
Orders (±50 pips) 8% 8% -6% -12%
Orders (±100 pips) 10% 10% -10% -11%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Sell
CCI (14) Buy Neutral Neutral
AROON (14) Sell Buy Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Sell
Aggregate → ↗ ↘
Pair’s Outlook Last Friday the EUR/USD pair traded down and closed at the 1.1220
mark, posting a more than 60-pip daily slump. Short-term upward
correction seems very possible, as the exchange rate has neared the
bunch of supports around 1.12, namely the monthly pivot point and 55-
day SMA. They are followed by the lower Bollinger band and weekly S1
at 1.1173 and 1.1161, respectively. Intraday dips below here would put
at risk the area around 1.1065 (200/100-day SMAs). Meanwhile, on the
topside the closest resistance is the weekly pivot and 20-day SMA at
1.1279/88.
Traders’ Sentiment The SWFX market is getting more positive with respect to the common
currency, as the number of long positions rose to 44% by the April 25
morning. This is up from 42% we had seen back on Friday.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 25, 2016 07:30 GMT
“Maybe we could start to flirt with the idea the Fed could tighten again this year, and then we expect a recovery for the dollar.” - SEB (based on Bloomberg)
GBP/USD poised to begin correction
Level Rationale
■ R3 1.4615 Monthly R1
■ R2 1.4521/29 Down-trend; weekly R1
■ R1 1.4478 Bollinger band
■ S1 1.4428 100-day SMA
■ S2 1.4330 Weekly PP
■ S3 1.4267/49 20 and 55-day SMAs; monthly PP
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 10% 10% 30% 20%
Orders (±50 pips) -2% -2% -30% 0%
Orders (±100 pips) -18% -18% -10% -1%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Buy
ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell
CCI (14) Sell Neutral Buy
AROON (14) Buy Sell Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Sell Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell
Aggregate → ↘ ↘
Pair’s Outlook Although the Sterling was unable to maintain trade near the target area
of 1.4450 on Friday, trade still closed with the GBP/USD currency pair
retaking the 1.44 major level, also erasing all intraweek losses.
Furthermore, the Cable opened with a bullish gap today, inching closer
towards the resistance trend-line around the 1.45 mark, therefore, a
correction is likely to take place. The Bollinger band is providing
immediate resistance circa 1.4478, weighing on the pair, while the
nearest support is represented by the 100-day SMA at 1.4428. The
exchange rate, however, is expected to fall back towards the 1.44
psychological level.
Traders’ Sentiment Traders’ sentiment remains unchanged since Friday, with bulls still
taking up 55% of the market.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 25, 2016 07:30 GMT
“I'm a bit skeptical about how long the yen's slide will continue. Financial markets appear to have a bleak view on the impact of negative interest rates on the economy.” - Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
USD/JPY struggles to retake 112.00
Level Rationale
■ R3 114.43/52 Weekly R2; monthly R1
■ R2 113.09/10 Bollinger band; weekly R1
■ R1 112.00/59 55-day SMA; down-trend; monthly PP
■ S1 110.63/04 Monthly S1; weekly PP; 20-day SMA
■ S2 109.13/108.70 Weekly S1; monthly S2
■ S3 107.63 18-month low
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions 46% 42% 46% 44%
Orders (±50 pips) 20% 20% -74% -12%
Orders (±100 pips) -6% -6% -66% -5%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Sell
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Neutral Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell
CCI (14) Sell Buy Buy
AROON (14) Buy Sell Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Buy
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Sell
Aggregate → ↘ ↘
Pair’s Outlook The USD/JPY currency pair overperformed on Friday, as the Japanese
Yen lost more than 200 pips against the Buck on the negative loan rate
rumours. The Greenback, however, now faces a tough resistance area
around 112.30, namely the 55-day SMA, the down-trend and the
monthly PP, which is likely to cause the pair to make a U-turn. In this
case the monthly S1, the weekly PP and the 20-day SMA are to provide
support around 110.35, but technical indicators in the daily timeframe
are unable to confirm this scenario. As a result, the US Dollar could still
recover from its intraday low and surge approximately 50 pips, putting
the down-trend to a full-scale test.
Traders’ Sentiment Today there are 73% of traders having a positive outlook towards the
American Dollar, compared to 71% last Friday.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 25, 2016 07:30 GMT
“Should the central bank continue to hint at further rate delays, we could see the dollar sell-off resume, in which case most commodity markets including gold could push higher.” - INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)
Gold closes below 55-day SMA, risks surge
Level Rationale
■ R3 1,258/59 Weekly R1; Bollinger band
■ R2 1,241/43 Monthly and weekly PPs
■ R1 1,235/37 55/20-day SMAs
■ S1 1,216/15 Weekly S1; Bollinger band
■ S2 1,200/1,198 Weekly S2; monthly S1
■ S3 1,173/70 Weekly S3; 100-day SMA
Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago 10-day avg. Open Positions -28% -32% -18% -26%
Indicator Day Week Month
MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy
RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Neutral Neutral
ADX (14) Neutral Buy Buy
CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Sell
AROON (14) Buy Buy Sell
Alligator (13; 8; 5) Neutral Buy Sell
SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Buy
Aggregate → ↑ →
Pair’s Outlook A sharp drop of gold prices on Friday followed its inability to
consolidate above the 1,263 resistance one day before. With prices
plunging as low as 1,232 on the last day of the previous week, the
bullion created a dangerous precedent by closing below the 55-day
SMA for the first time since January. In case there is no rebound over
the next 24 hours, we are going to shift our attention to the 1,216
mark, namely nearest possible support represented by the lower
Bollinger band in cooperation with the weekly S1. Upward risks are
dampened, as there are formidable resistances located in the 1,235/43
range.
Traders’ Sentiment Bullish side gained only two pp from Friday until Monday, on top of two
pp it had added on Thursday-Friday. Now there are 36% of long
positions, meaning the bears are safeguarding a majority of 64%.
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Monday, April 25, 2016 07:30 GMT
Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the
projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
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