Team 1 Bp Decision Tree
description
Transcript of Team 1 Bp Decision Tree
“Preventing Future Oil Spills” – A Decision Tree Approach
Goh Peng Yang Davy
Deepa Radhakrishnan
Corina Ilmaniar
Somnath Kansabanik
Daniel Ilteris
Soumyak Sen
Phei Yee Tan
Agenda
• Overview of the disaster
• Aftermath of the disaster
• Events & Decisions leading to the disaster
• Current Risk Analysis Procedure
• Proposed Risk Analysis Procedure
• Optimal Decision & Sensitivity Analysis
• Conclusions
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Overview of the Disaster
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Aftermath of the Disaster
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• Largest marine spill in history
• 11 casualties &17 more injuries
• 3 months to plug the leak which released 4.9 million barrels of crude oil
into the ocean
Basics of Well Drilling
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Without proper centralization
90% chance of hydrocarbon
channeling
Fresh water
Shale
Salt water Hydrocarbo
n/Oil
If cement does not set,
90% chance of
hydrocarbon channeling
• Centralizer design & cement
chemistry are estimated prior to
drilling
• If cement chemistry and centralizer
design are improved after obtaining
real-time drilling logs, the probability
of desired cement setting improves
from 60% to 95% & probability of
good centralization improves from
55% to 95%
Decisions & Events Leading
to the Disaster
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• On April 19, Jesse Gagliano, the Halliburton
cementing engineer, informed the BP engineer
Brian Morel that compressive strength analysis
(Cement Bond Log Test) for cement job has not
been completed
• Decision to be made on Apr 19, 2011:
Wait for 3 additional days for centralizers
to arrive?
Wait for total 5 days for complete lab test
result?
BP did not listen to Halliburton’s recommendation to wait for more centralizers
and Cement Bond Log (CBL) test results
Brian Morel wrote an email to colleague Brett Cocales, saying:
"Who cares, it's done, end of story, we'll probably be fine".
Decisions & Events Leading
to the Disaster
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BOP can prevent leak with
80% reliability
Failure of BOP will activate
Gas Detection. Well Control
success rate is 60%
Failure of Well Control leads
to Emergency Response with
65% success rate
Small, Minor or Major Oil spill
with 30%, 31% & 39%
chances of occuring
Current Risk Analysis
Procedure
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Mitigation Plans:
Risk Management Plan:
1) BOP pressure test will be done.
BOP will help to prevent
hydrocarbon channeling
2) Gas Detection System will alert in
case BOP of failure. Well Control
can be done
3) Emergency Response Plan in
place to reduce severity of
catastrophic incident
Proposed Risk Analysis
Procedure
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Risk Mitigation Procedure
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Complexity of the Decision
Optimal Decision
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95.0% 90.25%
0 -7500000
TRUE Chance
-3000000 -14803857.01
90.0%
0
5.0% Hydrocarbon Channeling
0 -153577140.3
10.0%
-1,000,000
95.0% Decision
0 -14803857.01
TRUE Chance
-4500000 -21592521.17
10.0%
0
25.0% Hydrocarbon channeling detected
0 -649537290
90.0%
0
90.0% Chance
0 -166696822.5
75.0% 3.375%
-1250000 -5750000
5.0% Hydrocarbon Channeling
0 -150577140.3
10.0% 0.5%
-1000000 -5500000
Decision
-21592521.17
• Wait for Centralizers
• Wait for Cement Bond Log
Sensitivity Analysis
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Sensitivity Analysis
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98% Reliability!
Sensitivity Analysis
• Further sensitivity analysis keeping BOP reliability at 95%
• Probability of Emergency Response to control fire needs to improve by 20%
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Insights for Oil & Gas Industry
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• Opportunity to improve the current business decision framework:
From “gut feel” decision making to a more structured framework that “forces” the
decision maker to consider all factors and quantify the risks/damages and
rewards/profits (Expected Monetary Value) associated with the decisions
• Reduce NPT (Non-productive time)
Improve Reliability of BOP from 80% to 95%
– Possible Action includes improving design of BOP, improving maintenance schedule
Improve success rate of Emergency Response to control fire from 65% to 85%
– Possible actions include training for personnel, conducting fire-drill exercises, etc
• The framework is a good starting point for the industry to start collecting real data hence
improving the accuracy of the probability set for each variable over time
References
• BP’s Investigation Report (Accessible at
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/gom_response/STAG
ING/local_assets/downloads_pdfs/Deepwater_Horizon_Accident_Investigation_Report.pdf)
• US Govt Report on GOM Disaster: “REPORT REGARDING THE CAUSES OF THE APRIL
20, 2010 MACONDO WELL BLOWOUT” (Accessible at
http://www.boemre.gov/pdfs/maps/DWHFINAL.pdf )
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill
• http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/21/bp-brand-value/
• http://www.deepwater.com/fw/main/BOP-Video-1079.html
• http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/295154-107
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi2K_BCPUec
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hj_r8vs2vmU
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zE_uHq36DLU
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MERCI!
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