Teaching Computers to Think Like Decision Makers: the next revolution in the data sciences
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Transcript of Teaching Computers to Think Like Decision Makers: the next revolution in the data sciences
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Teaching Computers to Think Like Decision Makers
Mark ZangariCEO, Quantellia LLC
San Francisco UniversityMay 23, 2014
[email protected] 717 4221
Copyright © 2014 Quantellia LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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Robert McNamara• Secretary of Defense (1961-68)• Ford Motor Co. (1946-61)• USAF “Statistical Control” (1943-46)
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Data System Analysis
Decision
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http://sunsite.berkeley.edu/FindingAids/dynaweb/calher/jvac/figures/j12EB-644A.jpg
http://www.whatswrongwiththeworld.net/office-interior-1940s.jpg
http://www.biega.com/bcbphotos/biega-engineer.jpghttp://lcweb2.loc.gov/service/pnp/hec/28300/28336r.jpg
Data Acquisition…
Data Storage…
Data Mining…
Analytics…
Data
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http://sunsite.berkeley.edu/FindingAids/dynaweb/calher/jvac/figures/j12EB-644A.jpg
http://www.whatswrongwiththeworld.net/office-interior-1940s.jpg
http://www.biega.com/bcbphotos/biega-engineer.jpghttp://lcweb2.loc.gov/service/pnp/hec/28300/28336r.jpg
Data Acquisition… Data Mining…
Analytics…
Data
Data Storage…
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DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation
System Analysis
Decision
DataInstrumented
Code / Sensors
DataManagement
Analytics
Presentation
Big Data
Business
Intelligence
Demarcation between automated (computer-centric) and manual (human-centric) information processing.
Gap between computer and humanbridged by Data Visualization.
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Units Cost Per Unit1-100 $12.00
101-500 $10.00
501-1000 $9.00
1001-10000 $7.50
10001+ $6.00
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arke
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Retail Price
Base Demand
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Pct.
Incr
ease
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dMarketing Spend
Marketing Driven Demand Uplift
Manufacturing Unit Cost by Volume
The Product Manager’s Decision:
To maximize profit…a) How many units do I order from the
manufacturer?b) What retail price do I charge?c) How much of my profit do I re-invest
in marketing?
(Mkt Size = 50,000)
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Even with all the data you need, and clear visualizations, making good
decisions is still very hard to do.Why?
Data System Analysis Decisionü
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Because:
a) Humans are not good at runningSystems in their heads.
b) Unlike Data, there is little mainstream computerized support for modeling and analyzing Systems.
(But let’s see if we can change that…)
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Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
• Attributes• Dependencies
The Product Manager’s Model and quickly
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Identify Model Elements:
• Outcomes / Goals“What are we trying to achieve?”
• Levers“What can we control?”
• Externals“What affects our outcomesthat we can’t control?”
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
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Identify DependenciesDependencies“How are A, B and C related to X, Y and Z?”IntermediatesWhen outcomes are not directly related to levers or externals.
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
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Quantify DependenciesDependencies“How are A, B and C related to X, Y and Z?”
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
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Base Demand
Expressions
External Data Sources / AnalyticsSketch Graphs
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Quantify Dependencies
Dependencies“How are A, B and C related to X, Y and Z?”
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
Models also provide a systematic way to assess the impact of uncertainty, sensitivity, precision and risk on the decisions they support.
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While humans are not good at processing systems models, we are much better at analyzing and designing them. This leads to a natural human-computer partnership.
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
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The Product Manager’s Decision:
a) How many units do I order from the manufacturer?
b) What retail price to I charge?c) How much of my profit do I
re-invest in marketing?
… to maximize profit?
But wait, there’s more.
38,000$15
7%
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The Product Manager’s Decision:
Most decisions are made not justto optimize outcomes, but to managerisk.
A bi-product of the optimization search is data that can be used to:• Assess sensitivity of the desired
outcome to particular levers and externals.
• Assess downside risk associated with each positive outcome.
Opportunity envelopeRisk envelope
Gradient shows sensitivity
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Some Interesting Structural Characteristics of Models…Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
Feedback Loop
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… Lead to Important Behaviors.Equilibrium and Transient States
• Real-life systems, even if they are stable, are not static, but in a steady state or equilibrium.
• When such systems are perturbed, they oscillate, or experience a transient.
• Effective decision makers need to be able to understand the effects their decisions will have both on the transient phase and on the new equilibrium.
Build a Computable Systems Model Visually
Equilibrium with price at $12
Price raisedto $15
New equilibrium with price at $15
Transientphase
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Data System Analysis
Decision
Big Data / Business Intelligence:
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Data
System Analysis
Decision
Decision Intelligence
Analyze system
Build model
Integrate Data to specify dependencies
Search the space of decision leversand externals to determine
optimal outcomes and risk profiles
Gap between computer and humanbridged by Data Visualization of Decision Variables, not the Input Variables as before.
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Decision Intelligence:
• Gives decision makers what they need most, and they cannot get from Business Intelligence: help answering the question “If I make this decision, then what will be the likely results, and what risks am I exposed to?”
• Provides a framework for the most effective use of existing data and analytics tools in a given problem.
• Provides visual and other artifacts that assure team alignment and act as a form of “institutional memory”
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New Kinds of Visualizations
• Familiar data visualizations still have their place in Decision Intelligence, but note that the “axes” are now more meaningful to decision makers as each represents an “actionable” quantity.
• In addition, there is a powerful role for new dynamic System Visualizations.
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Call to Action:
Now that the “Big Data” problem is mostly solved, we need invest our talents to return to the “Big
Picture”.
We must develop software tools and methodologies that integrate data and systems to
produce the kinds of insights real users really need.
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Download a free trial of World Modeler from www.quantellia.com
Mark ZangariCEO, Quantellia LLC
San Francisco UniversityMay 23, 2014
[email protected] 717 4221
Copyright © 2014 Quantellia LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Thank You.