TDM Session MNL and NL Lab - fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt
Transcript of TDM Session MNL and NL Lab - fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt
Phd in Transportation / Transport Demand Modelling 1
Phd Program in Transportation
Transport Demand Modeling
Filipe Moura([email protected])
Session 2Discrete Choice Models
An Application of Multinomial Logit and Nested Logits
(Aknowledgements are given to Gonรงalo Correia who prepared the previous version of this slides)
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Application of a Multinomial Logit
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Revealed Preference Experiments
q When calibrating discrete choice models we may recur to two different types of data: Revealed Preference (RP) or Stated Preference (SP).
q Revealed Preference: We survey the population to what they are doing now, with the choice set they perceive to have available now. In mode choice (our most important choice in Transportation) this means having the attributes of the respondents, the attributes of the modes they have available (this is not straightforward) and the choices they make everyday.
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A Modal Choice Revealed Preference Survey in Australia โ Lab (I)
q This survey is part of the Book โApplied Choice Analysis: A Primerโ by David Hensher, et al (2005). They have a Revealed and a Stated Preference Survey.
q We start just with the Revealed Preference (RP) survey for understanding how to estimate MNL models in NLOGIT (Econometric Software Inc.).
q Each respondent in the sample answered a questionnaire about the trip they had the day before of the survey.
q For this Lab we have filtered the data, selecting just some of the available explanatory variables.
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Variable Meaning
ALTIJ Alternative Number: 1 = DRIVE ALONE, 2 = RIDE SHARE, 3 = BUS, 4 = TRAIN, 5 = WALK, 6 = BICYCLE;
CHOICE 1, chosen, 0 not chosen
CSET Number of alternatives in each comparison. In this case there are always 2.
MPTRFARE Cost of public transport ($AUS)
MPTRTIME Time on public transport (min)
WAITTIME Time waiting for public transport (min)
AUTOTIME Time inside the automobile (min)
VEHPRKCT Cost of parking in destination ($AUS)
VEHTOLCT Paid toll ($AUS)
NUMBVEHS (SDC) Number of vehicles in household
WKROCCUP (SDC) Occupation category:1 = Managers and Admin, 2 = Professionals, 3 = Para-professional, 4 = Tradespersons, 5 = Clerks, 6 = Sales, 7 = Plant operators, 8 = Laborers , 9 = Other
PERAGE (SDC) Age
A Modal Choice Revealed Preference Survey in Australia โ Lab (II)
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q Variables ALTIJ, CHOICE and CSET, allow building the dependent variable of the DCM.
q ALTIJ will identify the mode of transportation that each line of data represents, CHOICE will tell which of the lines (modes) has been chosen from the Choice set, and finally CSET will tell how many lines (alternatives) are in each choice which respondents have answered.
q In this RP survey each choice is made between the mode of transportation that the user has selected the day before and in the questionnaire they were also asked to give attribute levels of a single alternative means of traveling to work as perceived by that respondent. This second mode was deemed the alternative mode.
A Modal Choice Revealed Preference Survey in Australia โ Lab (III)
Variable (continue) Meaning
DISDWCBD (like an SDC) Distance to the Central Business District (CBD) (km)
TRIPTIME Trip time in Bicycle or walking (min)
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Data Sample
(โฆ)
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Building the Utility Functions for an MNLThe first step on running an MNL is thinking of an initial structure for the Utility functions. My proposal is the following:
Drive alone Utility:U(DA) =ASDR+TDRDA*AUTOTIME+COST*VEHPRKCT+COST*VEHTOLCT+VEHD*NUMBVEHS+AGE*PERAGE+MANAGE*MANAGERS/Ride Share Utility:U(RS) = ASRS +COST*VEHPRKCT+COST*VEHTOLCT/Bus Utility:U(BUS) = ASBU +COST*MPTRFARE + TPTBUS*MPTRTIME+TW*WAITTIME/Train Utility:U(TRAIN) = ASTR + COST*MPTRFARE/ +TPTTRA*MPTRTIME+TW*WAITTIME+DISTAN*DISDWCBDWalk Utility:U(WALK) = ASWA+TRPEDBI*TRIPTIME/Cycle Utility:U(CYCLE) = TRPEDBI*TRIPTIME
New Variable!
Reference Alternative
Coefficient Variable
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MNLโs in Nlogitq The command in Nlogit to create MNL models is the DISCRETECHOICE
(or NLOGIT) command. Go to Model->Discrete Choice->Discrete Choice.
Instead of having the choice we could have a frequency of choices, which Nlogit transforms in probabilities.
If we want to give a higher weigh to some choices, for instance, due to sample stratification
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MNLโs in NlogitIt does not allow to specify different weighs for the same alternative attribute like travel time of BUS and travel time of Car.
Best Option! We have all the freedom we want
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The code in Nlogit
Will produce a new variable called โProbโ with the probability of the alternative being chosen in its choice set
Cross tabulation of true versus predicted choices
Verifies the data before estimation
Describes all utility functions and their coefficients estimates
Creates the new variable according to an existing one. We should not introduce a categorical variable directly in the model because we are implicitly considering a linear effect of the categories on the utility which is most of the times false.
qRun the model by selecting all text with your cursor and pressing go!
But the best to do is really to write the code it self:
Considers all the data for estimating the model
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The output
Be careful this Chi-squared is not computed correctly. It is supposed to be the test comparing LL(c) and LL(*) that is why it has 10 degrees of freedom: 15-5. However what is doing is wrong! He is applying the following: 2*(LL(c)+LL(*))=2*(392,51+344,18)=1473
It is the Log Likelihood
Choice Makers, not data lines
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q Due to the error in Nlogit we must compute ourselves, the Log Likelihood ratio and the pseudo-R2 for a base model with equal shares.
q Each respondent chooses one of two alternatives, thus equal shares means 0.5 probability of choice in each choice set for each of the alternatives, thus we have:
๐ฟ๐ฟ 0 = (1 โ ln 0.5 + 0 โ ln(0.5)) โ 854=-591,94q The Log Likelihood ratio will then be: โ2(๐ฟ(0) โ ๐ฟ(โ)) =โ2(โ591.94โ (โ344.1845)) = 495,511With degrees of freedom=15-0=15
Comparing to a model with equal shares
In Excel:=INV.CHI(0.05,15)=24,99
24.99
5%
495,511(โฆ)We reject the hypothesis that our model is the same as a base model with equal shares.
Pseudo R2 (McFadden)= 1-(-344.1845/-591,94)=0.419
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q NLOGIT;Lhs=CHOICE,CSET,ALTIJ;Choices=DA,RS,BUS,TRAIN,WALK,CYCLE;Rh2=ONE$
Comparing to a model with ASCs
In Excel:=INV.CHI(0.05,10)=18.307
18.307
We reject the hypothesis that our model is the same as a base model with just the alternative specific constants.
5%
96,651(โฆ)
โ2(๐ฟ(๐) โ ๐ฟ(โ)) =โ2(โ๐๐๐.๐๐ โ (โ344.1845)) == 96.651
degrees of freedom=15-5=10
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Crosstab of Actual vs Predicted
DA RS BUS TRAIN WALK CYCLE Total
DA 446 19 17 11 3 3 499 58,4%
RS 11 79 16 21 3 4 135 15,8%
BUS 20 15 53 7 0 0 95 11,12%
TRAIN 15 18 9 33 2 0 78 9,13%
WALK 3 2 0 2 9 4 20 2,34%
CYCLE 4 2 0 4 3 15 27 3,16%
Total 499 135 95 78 20 27 854
58,4% 15,8% 11,12% 9,13% 2,34% 3,16%
qThe predicted choices are obtained by computing the probabilities and if ๐ ๐ >๐ ๐ โ๐๐๐ฝ we say that alternative ๐ is chosen.
%๐ถ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ =635854 = 74% Good prediction ability.
Actual
Predicted
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MNL Coefficients results
Number of vehicles in the household is very positive for choosing to drive alone
Time walking and bicycling is very negative for those alternatives
Experiment at home: Try considering one alternative specific coefficient for the travel time in bicycle and another for the time walking โฆ see what happens. Determine the value of driving time alone.
Not being able to explain part of the disutility of these modes against the reference alternative, the Bicycle
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Wald StatisticTest if we can reject the hypothesis of the cost parameter being zero:WALD;FN1:COST-0$
This results in exactly the same value as in the previous table. Because we are testing the same hypothesis.
Test if we can reject the hypothesis of the travel time inside the bus and the time waiting for the bus have the same weight in the Utility function:WALD;FN1:TPTBUS-TW$
We reject the hypothesis that both are the same
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Aggregating across Individualsq With the Prob variable we may aggregate across individuals and obtain
the modal shares using Excel:
q See that the model is reproducing the shares in the sample. This must always happen because it is a direct result of the estimation process.
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Application of a Nested Logit
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A mode choice SP experiment Australia (I)
q The experiment showed 4 transportation alternatives to the respondents in several cities in Australia.
q However the choice set was between: Car with toll; Car with no toll; bus; train; busway and light rail (these last two, were non-existent at that time).
(Hensher et al, 2005)
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q To initiate this experiment the trip length in terms of travel time relevant for each respondentโs current commuting trip was first established so that the travel choices could be given in a context that had some reality for the respondent. The travel choice sets were divided into trip lengths of:
ยง Less than 30 minutes: Short tripยง 30โ45 minutes: Medium tripยง Over 45 minutes: Long trip
q In participating in the choice experiments, each respondent was asked to consider a context in which the offered set of attributes and levels represented the only available means of undertaking a commuter trip from the current residential location to the current workplace location. It was made clear that the purpose was to establish each respondentโs coping strategies under these circumstances.
A mode choice SP experiment Australia (II)
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The set of attributes and their levels
(Hensher et al, 2005)
Table 9.4. The set of attributes and attribute levels in the mode-choice experimentAll cost items are in Australian $, all time items are in minutes
short (<30 mins.) car no toll car toll rd public transport bus train busway light rail
Travel time to work 15, 20, 25 10, 12, 15 Total time in the vehicle (one-way) 10, 15, 20 10, 15, 20 10, 15, 20 10, 15, 20Pay toll if you leave at this
time (otherwise free)None 6โ10, 6:30โ8:30,
6:30โ9Frequency of service Every 5, 15, 25 Every 5, 15, 25 Every 5, 15, 25 Every 5, 15, 25
Toll (one-way) None 1, 1.5, 2 Time from home to closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25Fuel cost (per day) 3, 4, 5 1, 2, 3 Time to destination from closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25Parking cost (per day) Free, $10, 20 Free, $10, 20 Return fare 1, 3, 5 1, 3, 5 1, 3, 5 1, 3, 5Time variability 0, ยฑ4, ยฑ6 0,ยฑ1,ยฑ2
medium (30โ45 mins.) car no toll car toll rd public transport bus train busway light rail
Travel time to work 30, 37, 45 20, 25, 30 Total time in the vehicle (one-way) 20, 25, 30 20, 25, 30 20, 25, 30 20, 25, 30Pay toll if you leave
at this time (otherwisefree)
None 6โ10, 6:30โ8:30,6:30โ9
Frequency of service Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25
Toll (one-way) None 2, 3, 4 Time from home to closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25Fuel cost (per day) 6, 8, 10 2, 4, 6 Time to destination from closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25
Bus 4, 6, 8Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Parking cost (per day) Free, $10, 20 Free, $10, 20 Return fare 2, 4, 6 2, 4, 6 2, 4, 6 2, 4, 6Time variability 0, ยฑ7, ยฑ11 0, ยฑ2, ยฑ4
long (>45 mins.) car no toll car toll rd public transport bus train busway light rail
Travel time to work 45, 55, 70 30, 37, 45 Total time in the vehicle (one-way) 30, 35, 40 30, 35, 40 30, 35, 40 30, 35, 40Pay toll if you leave
at this time (otherwisefree)
None 6โ10, 6:30โ8:30,6:30โ9
Frequency of service Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25
Toll (one-way) None 3, 4.5, 6 Time from home to closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25 Walk 5, 15, 25Fuel cost (per day) 9, 12, 15 3, 6, 9 Time to destination from closest stop Walk 5, 15, 25
Bus 4, 6, 8Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Walk 5, 15, 25Bus 4, 6, 8
Parking cost (per day) Free, $10, 20 Free, $10, 20 Return fare 3, 5, 7 3, 5, 7 3, 5, 7 3, 5, 7Time variability 0, ยฑ11, ยฑ17 0, ยฑ7, ยฑ11
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Stated preference databaseq We will use this data in the next session to use Nested Logit models.
(โฆ)
(โฆ)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (I)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (II)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (III)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (IV)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (V)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (VI)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (VII)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (VIII)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (IX)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (X)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (XI)
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The Hausman IIA Test of the IIA hypothesis (XII)
.026792
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q The decision regarding the shape of the nested structure is the analyst choice. We first start with a structure which has proved many times to be significant:
Applying the Nested Logit Structure to the SP data experiment
q In this perspective we are saying that both car options are correlated in their error components, that is, all the attributes that we are forgetting in the systematic part of utility may be correlated in that branch.
q We are proposing the same for the public transport branch.
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First NL model (I)
q The menu to run a Nested Model in Nlogit: Model -> Discrete Choice -> Nested Logit.
q In the first screen you do exactly the same as you did for the MNLโs.
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First NL model (II)
Utility Functions
The tree
It does not allow to specify RU1 or RU2. By default it will use RU1: normalization in the Level 1 alternatives!
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First NL model (III)
Marginal probabilities: The probabilities of each of the four alternatives in each comparison (sum=1)
Conditional probability: The probabilities for each alternative given that they are inside each branch
The IV values of each branch
The Utility of each alternative
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NLOGIT;lhs = choice, cset, altij;choices = cart, carnt, bus, train, busway, LR;tree = car(cart, carnt), PT(bus, train, busway, LR);RU1;start = logit;ivset: (car)=[1.0];maxit = 100;Prob=MARGPROB;cprob=ALTPROB;ivb=IVBRANCH;Utility=U1;model:U(cart) = asccart + fuel*fuel /U(carnt) = asccarnt + fuel*fuel /U(bus) = ascbus + fare*fare /U(train) = asctn + fare*fare /U(busway) = ascbusw + fare*fare /U(LR) = fare*fare;Crosstab$
First NL model (IV)
Begins by running an MNL for having initial values for estimating the parameters.
IV parameter normalization: the IV parameter will be 1 which normalizes the scale of the car branch to 1.
We choose to normalize the IV parameter of the car branch because it has the highest scale.
Branch1(alt1, alt2),Branch2(alt3, (โฆ))
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q Nlogit will start by calibrating an MNL to generate initial coefficients for the iterative calibration.
q It gives exactly the same results as if you run an MNL with those 6 alternatives.
First NL model (V)
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First NL model (VI)
q Then the output shows the results for the Nested structure that we want to fit.
q The pseudo R-Squared with no information base model is presented immediately.
q In Nested Logits we will use only this, because a model with just the alternative specific constants in nests is not the same as in an MNL.
๐๐ ๐๐ข๐๐๐ 2 = 1 โ๐ฟ(โ)๐ฟ(0) =
1 โ 2โ4768.225โ6324.968
; = 0.2437
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First NL model (VII)IV(Car) normalizationIV(PT) = 0.01986
qWe canโt reject the hypothesis that the IVPT is zero.
qThere is too much correlation between the alternatives in the PT branch. Huge common variance.
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q You may proceed with several Wald tests to the data.
q The first test is exactly the same as the output test from the previous slide, we are testing the hypothesis of the coefficient being zero.
q The second one is about testing the hypothesis that the IVPT is 1, which would mean equal scales, (equal variances) between both levels thus pointing to an MNL.
First NL model (IX)
We reject with great certainty the hypothesis that the coefficient may be 1, an MNL is definitely not advisable! Hence we should search for a new structure of the NL.
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Second Nested Model (I)
q We are not yet satisfied with the Nested Model we have just tested.
q A second alternative model can be having three branches. We may study the following structure:
Existing PT New PT
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NLOGIT;lhs = choice, cset, altij;choices = cart, carnt, bus, train, busway, LR;tree = car(cart, carnt), PTEX(bus, train),PTNW (busway, LR);RU1;start = logit;ivset: (car)=[1.0];maxit = 100;Prob=MARGPROB;cprob=ALTPROB;ivb=IVBRANCH;Utility=U1;model:U(cart) = asccart + fuel*fuel /U(carnt) = asccarnt + fuel*fuel /U(bus) = ascbus + fare*fare /U(train) = asctn + fare*fare /U(busway) = ascbusw + fare*fare /U(LR) = fare*fare;Crosstab$
Second Nested Model (II)
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Second Nested Model (III)
q The initial MNL model is the same
q Notice that we havenโt been worrying much about the significance of the variables, looking mainly at the model structure.
q Coefficient of variable ASCTN is irrelevant for now.
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Second Nested Model (IV)
q Model has improved against a model with equal shares (no information)
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Second Nested Model (V)
qThe IV parameters are in the expected interval, neither 0 nor 1, meaning that the branches that we defined are significant for the data we are analyzing and for the Utility functions which we have proposed.
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CART CARNT BUS TRAIN BUSWAY LR TotalCART 182 195 97 91 122 111 798CARNT 187 214 96 105 119 118 838BUS 94 97 126 49 62 0 428TRAIN 95 97 51 126 0 58 428BUSWAY 125 117 58 0 184 84 569LR 115 118 0 58 82 154 526Total 798 838 428 428 570 525 3587
%๐ถ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ =9863587 = 27.48%
Second Nested Model (VI)
CART CARNT BUS TRAIN BUSWAY LR Total
CART 183 195 97 91 122 111 798
CARNT 186 213 97 105 119 118 838
BUS 92 96 125 54 61 0 428
TRAIN 95 97 55 125 0 57 428
BUSWAY 126 118 54 0 183 88 569
LR 116 119 0 54 85 153 526
Total 798 838 428 428 569 526 3587
%๐ถ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ =9823587 = 27.37%
q NL Three branches
q MNL model
No great difference!
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Specifying utility functions at higher levels of the NL tree (I)
q Up to now we have only specified the utility functions at level 1, the level of the alternatives. But what if there are variables which better explain the choice between the branches (level 2) and not the conditional probabilities (probability in each nest)?
q The nested Logit model allows to specify these utility functions. Letโs consider the same Nested Logit structure of the current example, but letโs now include as explanatory variables on the option to use Car the number of licensed drivers at the home of the respondent and the number of vehicles available. Intuitively these should motivate the choice for driving in either tolled or non tolled roads.
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Specifying utility functions at higher levels of the NL tree (II)NLOGIT
;lhs = choice, cset, altij;choices = cart, carnt, bus, train, busway, LR;tree = car(cart, carnt), PTEX(bus, train),PTNW (busway, LR);RU1;start = logit;ivset: (car)=[1.0];maxit = 100;Prob=MARGPROB;cprob=ALTPROB;ivb=IVBRANCH;Utility=U1;model:U(Car)=ndrivlic*ndrivlic+numbvehs*numbvehs/U(ptex)=asptex/U(cart) = asccart + fuel*fuel /U(carnt) = asccarnt + fuel*fuel /U(bus) = ascbus + fare*fare /U(train) = asctn + fare*fare /U(busway) = ascbusw + fare*fare /U(LR) = fare*fare;Crosstab$
qThis is off course something that only a Nested Logit can do.
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As there are more members of the household with a driverโs license there is more competition for using the vehicle
The presence of more vehicles increases the probability of using the automobile
Pseudo-R2 has increased (using a null base model/equal shares model as reference)
Specifying utility functions at higher levels of the NL tree (III)
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q The two IV parameters are statistically different from 1 and from 0 (previous table)
Specifying utility functions at higher levels of the NL tree (IV)
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CART CARNT BUS TRAIN BUSWAY LR Total
CART 193 204 94 87 115 105 798
CARNT 196 222 91 98 117 114 838
BUS 87 91 132 55 64 0 428
TRAIN 91 94 55 129 0 60 428
BUSWAY 123 114 59 0 185 88 569
LR 109 113 0 57 88 159 526
Total 798 838 431 425 569 526 3587
%๐ถ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ =10223587
= 28.49%
Specifying utility functions at higher levels of the NL tree (V)
q This is not to say that the model will predict everything wrong: the shares as you remember are estimated through expectancy, aggregating probabilities across individuals so every probability will contribute.
q Modeling has as much of science as it has of art. It is difficult to say you have reached the best model. This model still does not have many explanatory variables.
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Computing probabilities (I)
Marginal probabilities:
Conditional probabilities:
Branch Probabilities:
Same thing
๐(๐ฟ๐ |๐๐๐๐) =๐IJ.KLLโMNOP
๐IJ.KLLโMNOP + ๐J.QRSSLIJ.KLLโMNOP
๐(๐๐๐๐) =๐J.STUTVJโWXYZ[
๐QโW\]^ + ๐J.LSKQVRโWXY_` +๐J.STUTVJโWXYZ[
=๐J.STUTVJโab(Pcd.effโg]^hiPd.jkllfcd.effโg]^h)
๐Qโ(IJ.KRURRโbmOnoanpiJ.LLTQqโbrstoPuviwW\]^) + ๐J.LSKQVRโ(J.VLTSJiwWXY_` ) +๐J.STUTVJโ(wWXYZ[)
๐(๐ฟ๐ ) = ๐(๐ฟ๐ /๐๐๐๐) โ ๐(๐๐๐๐)
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q The marginal probability: Computing probabilities (II)
๐(๐ต๐ข๐ ) = ๐(๐ต๐ข๐ |๐๐) โ ๐(๐๐)
marginal probability Probability of the alternative inside each branch
q Remember that in each choice the respondent had 4 alternatives, the first two were cart and carnt, the two other were Public Transport alternatives picked from 4 possible.
Utility of each alternative
cartcarnttrainLRcartcarnt
LRbusway
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q Regarding aggregation be careful because you canยดt just copy the Probability attribute to excel, it will only bring 1900 lines. You have to export the variables:
q Go to project -> Export -> Variables then Choose Excel Worksheet, give the name for your file and choose the variables you want to export: ALTIJ and MARGPROB.
Aggregating across alternatives (I)
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Aggregating across alternatives (II)
q Be aware that we are aggregating across alternatives which have been produced synthetically, thus outputting indicative shares which you should be careful on using! An advanced topic on avoiding these issues is combining RP and SP data, but we will not see that on this course.
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Bibliographyq Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, Steven R. (1985) โDiscrete Choice Analysis: Theory
and Applications to Travel Demandโ, MIT Press.q Hensher, Rose and Greene (2005) โApplied Choice Analysis: A Primerโ
Cambridge.q Ortรบzar J. and Willumsen L. (2001) Modelling Transport. 3rd Edition. John Wiley
and Sons. West Sussex, England.
Case study data is free to be accessed from: http://www.cambridge.org/0521605776