TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly...

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TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference July 2014

Transcript of TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly...

Page 1: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

TD Securities Calgary

Energy ConferenceJuly 2014

Page 2: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

Forward-Looking Statements

Grizzly Oil Sands 2

Certain statements, estimates and financial information contained in this presentation ("Estimates") constitute forward-

looking statements or information. Such forward-looking statements or information involve known and unknown risks

and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the Estimates or results implied or

expressed in such forward-looking statements. While presented with numerical specificity, the Estimates are based (i)

on certain assumptions that are inherently subject to significant business, economic, regulatory, environmental,

seasonal, and competitive uncertainties, contingencies and risks including, without limitation, assumptions of resource,

ability to obtain debt and equity financing, capital costs, construction costs, well production performances, operating

costs, commodity pricing, differentials, royalty structures, regulatory approvals, and other known and unknown risks, all

of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the control of Grizzly Oil Sands ULC ("Grizzly"); and (ii)

upon assumptions with respect to future business decisions that are subject to change.

There can be no assurance that the Estimates or the underlying assumptions will be realized and that actual results of

operations or future events will not be materially different from the Estimates. Under no circumstances should the

inclusion of the Estimates be regarded as a representation, undertaking, warranty or prediction by Grizzly, or any other

person with respect to the accuracy thereof or the accuracy of the underlying assumptions, or that Grizzly will achieve

or is likely to achieve any particular results. The Estimates are made as of the date of this presentation and Grizzly

disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the Estimates, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise. Recipients are cautioned that forward-looking statements or information are not

guarantees of future performance and, accordingly, recipients are expressly cautioned not to put undue reliance on

forward-looking statements or information due to the inherent uncertainty therein.

There are significant differences in the criteria associated with the classification of reserves, prospective resources and

contingent resources. Contingent resources and prospective resources estimates involve additional risks, specifically

the risk of not achieving commerciality and exploration risk, respectively, not applicable to reserves estimates. No

adjustments for these risks have been made in the groupings of reserves and recoverable resources.

All reference to dollars in this presentation should be assumed to refer to Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted. All

references to reserves and or resources represent Grizzly’s interest in reserves and resources prior to the deduction of

Crown royalties, unless otherwise noted.

Page 3: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• > 800,000 net acres in the Athabasca and Peace River oil sands regions (100%

operated, nearly 100% WI) focused on SAGD development

• ~ 3.4 billion bbls of 2P+Contingent Resources(1) across more than 30 project areas

• Privately owned by Wexford Capital and Gulfport Energy Corporation

• Steam injection at Algar Lake Phase 1 commenced in February, 2014

• All 10 well pairs have achieved steam injection, with current production of

~1,000bbls/d

• First crude oil shipped from Windell to the U.S. Gulf Coast in June, 2014

• Windell truck-to-rail terminal at Conklin, Alberta is operational to ship Algar Lake

and 3rd party oil and receive diluent

• Design and permitting is advanced on the Paulina rail-to-barge terminal project, located on the lower Mississippi River in Louisiana

• Rail rate contracted with CN for 10 years

• Plan to have > 20 projects ready for SAGD development in the next 5 years, with

bitumen production potential of ~170,000 bbbls/d

• Grizzly’s “ARMS” development model enables repeatable and scalable project

development, reducing execution and financing risk

One of the Largest Oil Sands Land

Positions in Alberta

Algar Lake Current Operations

Using Rail to Consistently

Access Premium Markets

1. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31, 2013

Investment Highlights

Grizzly Oil Sands 3

Repeatable & Scalable

Development Model

Page 4: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Completed Phase 1 construction and commissioning

• “First Oil” was achieved in April

• Current bitumen production is ~1,000 bbls/d

• Anticipate peak production of ~6,000 bbls/d by mid 2015

• Filed a 12,000 bbl/d regulatory development application in Q4 2013. First round of Supplemental Information Requests (SIRs) have been received

• Completed an 83 km 2D seismic program in Q1 2014. Processing of the data is well advanced and will be used to support a full field delineation drilling program

• Booked 345 mmbbl Contingent Resource(1)

• Acquired additional lands in the Peace River area

• Developed delineation drilling and seismic programs and plans for regulatory work

• Constructed and commenced operations at the Windell truck-to-rail terminal

• Shipped first crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast

• Completed design engineering and filed development permits for Paulina rail-to-barge terminal

• Currently in discussions with 3rd parties for transloading business at both terminals

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Algar Lake

May River

Rail Strategy

Cadotte

1. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31, 2013

Accomplishments since

Last Conference

Grizzly Oil Sands

Page 5: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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Grizzly Oil Sands Lease

Other Oil Sands Lease

Alberta Oil Sands Areas

Producing Project

Under Construction Thermal Project

City of

Peace River

City of

Fort McMurray

800,000+ Net Acres of Alberta

Oil Sands Leases

Exposure to All Play Types in Athabasca & Peace River

Page 6: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Grizzly has a high quality resource based on Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (“SAGD”) with additional upside using other reservoir recovery processes

• 3.4 billion bbls of 2P + Contingent Resources(1)

• Resources primarily located in low risk clastic reservoirs, with some exposure to the carbonates

• Two thirds of current lease position remains unexplored, which provides upside potential

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1. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. as at December 31, 2013; All Contingent Resources herein refer to “Best Estimate”.

Clastics (Existing Technologies) (1)

Proved

Reserves

(mmbbls)

2P Reserves

(mmbbls)

Contingent

Resources

(mmbbls)

2P Reserves

+ Contingent

Resources

(mmbbls)

Potential(1)

Plateau

Production

(bbls/d)

Operating

Algar Lake 67 114 35 149 21,000

Near-Term Development Projects

May River 0 157 662 819 120,000

Cadotte 0 0 345 345 34,000

Thickwood 0 0 114 114 18,000

Other Projects

Additional Growth Properties 0 0 1,769 1,769 230,000

Total Existing Technologies 67 271 2,925 3,196 423,000

Carbonates (Technology under Development) (1)

Additional Growth Properties 0 0 187 187 17,000

TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000

Grizzly Oil Sands

Grizzly Assets

Page 7: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

Grizzly Development Portfolio

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LAND

CAPTURE

RESOURCE

DELINEATION

DEVELOPMENT

APPLICATION

FILED

PROJECT

DEVELOPMENT

APPLICATION RECEIVED

CONSTRUCTION 1ST OIL PROJECT

PERFORMANCE

DEMONSTRATED

HARVEST

TIME TO PRODUCTION

DE-RISKING OF ASSETS

Value

$ / BOE

2 billion barrels of resources on ~30+

properties

Cadotte

Thickwood

Algar Lake

Phase 2

Algar Lake

Phase 1

Windell Rail

Terminal

May River

Phase 1

Creating Value by Advancing Project Development

Page 8: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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Property

# ARMS

Plants

Production

Potential

(bbls/d)(1)

2P Reserves +

Contingent

Resources(2)

(mmbbls) Status

Algar Lake Phase 1 1 6,000 50 Producing

Algar Lake Phase 2 1 6,000 50 Regulatory Approval Received

May River Phase 1 2 12,000 157Regulatory Application (filed Dec 2013) and 1

st round

of SIRs have been received

May River Full Field 12 90,000 662 Plan to file Regulatory Application by December 2016

Cadotte 7 50,000 345Plan to file Development Application by December

2016

Thickwood 1 5,000 50 Regulatory Application filed December 2012

Total 24 170,000 1,314

1. Management Estimates; 2. Source: GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd., as at December 31, 2013

Grizzly Project Development Portfolio

Attractive Scalable Development Portfolio

Page 9: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Built and commissioned Grizzly’s 1st

ARMS Plant at Algar Lake

• Demonstrated that ARMS plant works

• Benefits of the ARMS development

model include:

• Scalable and manageable growth

to match reservoir development

requirements

• Improved redundancy and

operability

• Lower cost

• Lower project execution and

financing risk

9Grizzly Oil Sands

Grizzly’s ARMS Development Model

• Working on learnings from the first plant to apply to the next project

Page 10: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Commenced reservoir steam injection at

Algar Lake Phase 1 in February, 2014

• Steam is currently being circulated

through all 10 well pairs, expected to be

converted to “SAGD” production mode

by the end of August

• Current production is ~1,000 bbls/d

• Full production ramp up expected by the

end of Q2/2015

• GLJ has assigned 114 mmbbls of 2P

Reserves and 35 mmbbls of Contingent

Resources

• Algar Lake Phase 2 regulatory approval

is in hand

10

T88

T87

T86

T85

T84

T83

T82

T81

R8W4R10R11R12R13R14

Grizzly Oil Sands

Algar Lake Property ~ 12,000 bbls/d

Page 11: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

18m

Devonian

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Algar Lake Reference Well

AB-16-10-85-12W4

Single Clean Channel Sand

• Up to 22 metres thick bitumen pay

• No bottom water or top gas

• 18+ metre thick bitumen pay outside of the initial development area

Wabiska

Wabiskaw-D

McMurray

Devonian

Page 12: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

Gamma Ray Logs Over Horizontal Production Well Trajectories

12Excellent Reservoir Quality over Entire Well Length

Algar Lake Reservoir Quality

Page 13: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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• ~50,000 acres of 100% W.I. oil sands leases

• 12,000 bbls/d development application filed and 1st round of SIRs have been received

• Adjacent to industry leading SAGD projects including Statoil KKD project and close to Jackfish, Christina Lake and CNRL Kirby projects

• Located ~10 km away from Grizzly’s Windell truck-to-rail terminal

• 96 km 2D full field seismic

• 59 km 3D full field seismic

• GLJ has assigned 157 mmbbls of 2P reserves and 662 mmbbls of Contingent Resources

Grizzly Oil Sands

May River Property ~ 100,000 bbls/d

Page 14: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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GLJ Best Estimate Net Continuous Bitumen Pay

08-18-077-08 40 metres Net Continuous Pay

• Multiple stacked channel system

• Analogous to nearby Cenovus, Devon, MEG and Statoil projects

• Up to 40 metres thick bitumen pay with continuous cap rock

• High permeability sands should deliver bitumen at steam-oil ratios in the 2.2 to 2.8 range

Grizzly Oil Sands

819 MM Barrels of High Quality

Recoverable Bitumen

Page 15: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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• 100% W.I. in ~50,000 acres

• GLJ has assigned 345 mmbbls of Contingent Resources

• Up to 18 metres clean, homogeneous net continuous pay in Belloy formation

Grizzly Oil Sands

Cadotte Property ~ 50,000 bbls/d

Bluesky

Belloy

Page 16: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Rail provides consistent and flexible

access to coastal markets offering

Brent pricing

• Diluent requirements are 50% lower

on rail (railbit) than pipeline

• Condensate back-haul opportunities

from the U.S.Gulf Coast are available

to resource diluent requirements at

lower cost

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Potential markets for bitumen transport via rail

Potential Rail Transportation Routes

Grizzly Oil Sands

Rail Transportation Strategy

Page 17: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

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Windell Terminal Site – Conklin, AB

Paulina Terminal Site - Louisiana

• Windell Rail Terminal - Operational

• First crude oil shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast in June,

2014

• Located adjacent to our May River site, and in close

proximity to 160,000 bbls/d of existing and 1.5 MMbbls/d

of planned industry bitumen production

• Capacity can be expanded to unit train facility of railbit

loading and condensate receiving

• Short pipeline opportunities to access local bitumen

production

• Paulina Terminal – Permitting underway

• Located near 8 complex refineries on the Mississippi

River with refining capacity of 2.4 MMbbls/d

• 350 rail car fleet leased for 10 years

• Both terminals are located on CN main line. Grizzly has

executed 10-year rate contract with CN

• Grizzly is in negotiations with 3rd parties to handle volumes at both facilities

Grizzly Oil Sands

Grizzly’s Rail Transportation Strategy

Page 18: TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference...TOTAL 67 271 3,112 3,383 440,000 Grizzly Oil Sands Grizzly Assets. Grizzly Development Portfolio 7 LAND CAPTURE RESOURCE DELINEATION DEVELOPMENT

• Demonstrate Algar Lake reservoir and ARMS plant performance by executing a

successful production ramp

• Achieve positive cash flow by year end

• Advance the 12,000 bbls/d May River development application

• Process 2D seismic data, which will be used to direct future core hole drilling to

support the filing of a “full field” development application in 2016

• Prepare ARMS design and execution plan based on Algar project experience

• Conduct detailed reservoir physical and simulation studies

• Delineation and regulatory work plans for 2015 execution

• Advance Thickwood regulatory development application

• Establish rail transportation capability, efficient blending metrics and access to

markets that transact based on world oil prices

• Receive development permits, contract third party business, sanction and construct

Paulina

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Algar Lake

May River

Thickwood

Rail Strategy

Cadotte

Grizzly Oil Sands

2014 Business Plan Highlights