Tax Seminar 2013 - Outlook by Robert Prega
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Slovakia Outlook 2013 Róbert Prega, Tatra banka Chief economist
description
Tatra Banka's Robert Prega presented his outlook on Slovakia's economy at the 2013 Tax Seminar of the Italian-Slovak Chamber of Commerce.
Transcript of Tax Seminar 2013 - Outlook by Robert Prega
Slovakia Outlook 2013
Róbert Prega, Tatra bankaChief economist
Slovak economy - catching up regional peers
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GDP in PPS per capita (EU27=100)
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Czech rep.
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Economic environment - still not very supportive in the this year
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Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
0.5
1.8
-0.1
1.5
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f 2015f
Germany Eurozone
GDP growth%
Expected improvement in H2 2013
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Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH
Medium-term growth prospect of the economy depends also on the government
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0.0
1.4
3.54.6 4.8
5.1
6.7
8.3
10.5
5.8
-4.9
4.43.2
2.40.9
2.5
3.5
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
GDP growth %
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
Strong contribution of automotive industry will decrease in the year
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Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
0.4%-0.4%
1.0% 0.8% 1.0%0.2%
5.5%
-4.5%
3.2%2.6%
1.4%
0.8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013
Automotive industry Rest of economy
Structure of GDP growth
-4.9%
4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9%
5.9%
Growth differential is narrowing...
7-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014f
Growth differential SR versus Eurozone
Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
How strong is commitment of government to decrease the deficit?
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Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Ministry of Finance
27.8
35.4
41.043.3
52.254.9 55.8 56.0
2.1
8.07.7
4.94.6
2.92.4
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Public Debt Deficit as % of GDP
High public debt - global problem
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0
50
100
150
200
250
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% o
f G
DP
Public debt % of GDP
Eurozone USA Japan Slovak Republic
Source: Eurostat, OECD
Slower growth, lower inflation
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2.4
3.6
0.6
13.8
4.6
0.9
2.2
-0.2
14.1
2.9
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
GDP CPI Employment Unemployment Deficit
Key macroeconomic ndicators in 2013 versus 2012
2012 e 2013 f
Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
Summary
• Eurozone debt crisis is not by far fixed and risk of another turmoil on the market is still very material
• ECB will remain key stabilisation factor
• Eurozone will be still on the verge of recession in H1 2013 with prospect of gradual recovery in H2 2013 and 2014
• Growth perspective for Slovak economy determined by Eurozone a economic policy of government in medium term
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Thank you for attention.
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