TARGETED TRENDS ANALYSISThe outcome of targeted trends analysis is not simply being in-the-know, but delivering inspired, informed and innovative design.

Creating meaningful design requires an organization to understand the world around them, where they fit into it and how they can appropriately respond to shifting needs and influ-ences. Therefore, it’s key that organizations be able to identify significant and relevant trends that may affect their situation and strategy.

One powerful feature of trends analysis is its ability to assess and describe the context of an entity’s position in the world. This process is broadly comprised of three steps: generate, se-lect and frame. The generative step is about gathering influences in the world you believe will affect your organizational interests. During the selection phase, you identify trends according to relevant criteria. Finally, during framing, use the relevant trends to define research ques-tions for further exploration or pass them through models that uncover design opportunities.

In this report you’ll find a process to conduct a targeted trend analysis for your next design project.

Step One: GenerateStep Two: SelectionStep Three: FramingAn example: AQUARExercise Questions

Trends are merely observations of influences in the world. The best way to find and record trends is through careful observation of shifts in values. Reading widely and consulting domain experts are important ways of gathering this knowledge. It’s also helpful to keep in mind that not every trend needs to be backed up with a slew of data points. Anecdotes are useful in con-veying emerging trends that have not met with widespread adoption. After all, if an observation is backed up with volumes of supporting data, it’s not likely to be an emerging trend. Depending upon the scope of the problem or question that you are attempting to address, there are generally two ways to generate robust sets of trends. These approaches are STEEP and CISE.

GENERATETo begin, one must identify and categorize the influences in the world around them.

If you have a large, ambiguous question, use the STEEP brainstorm model to generate broad trends that affect the world. An example of a large, ambiguous question would be “What are trends affecting human communication?” In considering the categories of influences emanating from society, technology, economy, ecology and policy, users can evaluate the impact of a broader set of influences. Influences in the society category include changes in cultural values, ethics, education and even work-life attitudes. Technology trends relate to the emergence or recession of tools and techniques we use to solve problems. These trends can also refer to shifts in in the way tech-nology affects humanity. Economy trends refer to market patterns, such as growth and decline, shifts in financial institutions or changes in resource costs. The ecology trend category addresses not only changes in the natural world, but also our relationship to nature with regard to infrastructure. Finally, policy trends refer to shifts in governmental regulation, as well and changes in political institutions both from a national and transnational perspective.

Influences to consider when generating STEEP trends include:

SocietyDemographic shifts Changes in cultural values Changes in attitudes toward institutions

TechnologyEmerging technologies Dying technologies

EconomyEmerging or declining marketsEmployment shifts Income shifts

EcologyResource availability Changes in the built environment

PolicyRegulatory changes Bureaucratic changes Institutional stability

USING STEEP

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If your question or problem is more granular, or closer to the product-level, use the CISE model to generate category-based trends that directly affect your organization. An example of a more granular question is “What are trends af-fecting smartphone adoption?” CISE investigates shifts and influences affecting consumers, industry, story and experi-ence within the context of a product development objective.

Influences in the consumer category include shifts in values, attitudes and behaviors as they relate to the product or ser-vice. Industry trends include market-oriented considerations like shifts in competitors’ strategies, new business models, or partnerships. The story category relates to branding and marketing, including how a product’s value is communicated to the consumer, or if there are changes in promotional channels. The experience category addresses changes to the way a consumer experiences the product, such as the context of use, point-of-purchase or even aesthetic trends.

Influences to consider when generating CISE trends include:

ConsumerEmerging behaviors and habits related to category Shifts in demographic-oriented attitudes to category

IndustryShifts in competitive strategies Emerging players in the market Category expansion/shrink Partnerships

StoryShifts in brand tropesShifts in the category value propositionShifts in promotional strategies

ExperienceContext-of-use changes Point-of-purchase shiftsColor, finish, material changes

Due to the breadth of domains and disciplines that need to be referenced during a trend brainstorm, it’s imperative that a diversity of viewpoints, interests and expertise are evalu-ated throughout. Prioritize internal and external experts with a wide variety of domain knowledge. Focused expertize can result in overly narrow and fragmented ideas.

USING CISE

The next step in the trends analysis process is the selection of relevant trends. The relevancy of a trend to an organiza-tion can be based on many factors, including probability and longevity.

Questions that frame these trend factors include:

1. What are unstoppable drivers that affect a company or organization’s circumstances? (E.g., global population booms; increasing scarcity of resources.)

2. What are trends that can be seen as reactions to these unstoppable drivers? (E.g., implementations of efficient prod-uct design; corporate responsibility initiatives.)

3. What are the more fleeting or conflicting trends that, while less momentous, influence consumer and product experienc-es? (E.g., consumers’ need for tradition in an unstable world; products and experiences that provide whimsy and delight against a background of economic austerity.)

Asking these questions will identify specific trends that can be weighed against criteria that measure impact on an orga-nization’s strategy.

Probability and longevity are important considerations to analyze in the context of a project or initiative’s time frame. But, so are factors like an organization’s willingness to take on risk and how a trend aligns with the company’s brand (E.g.: A semiconductor manufacturer may not be particularly concerned about fashion trends in Japan.) Once an organiza-tion has determined its situation within the context of these trends, it can begin to use them to its advantage.

Questions to determine trend filtering criteria include:

What is the pace of the product development lifecycle?

How quickly can the organization execute on designs that would reference quickly emerging trends?

Considering risk, is the supporting data quantitative or anec-dotal?

How widely could this trend be adopted?

Is the project focused on incremental or discontinuous innova-tion?

How critical is the project to the future of the organization’s success?

Does the trend have an obvious market opportunity?

Does the trend reference the values of the organization?

Could the trend affect the organization’s product category, or adjacent categories?

Could the trend interfere with the organization’s brand or mar-ket position?

SELECTIONFilter your set to relevant trends based on mutually defined criteria.

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FRAMINGOnce you’ve selected relevant trends, use them to guide research and inspire design. Here we’ll focus on two framing approaches: SWOT and 360.

SWOT: STRATEGY-ORIENTED TRENDS ANALYSISBy comparing an organization’s strengths and weaknesses with a set of relevant external trends, SWOT analysis opens up discussions about where to go or how to proceed. It shows directionality in trend factors like consumers’ values, habits, as well as, market movements relevant to the client’s prod-uct category. Here a fixture company compares its internal strengths and weaknesses to relevant external influences.

360: EXPERIENCE-ORIENTED TRENDS ANALYSISIf design inspiration is the preferred outcome of the trend analysis, overlaying a relevant trend on top of the current consumer experience can uncover many opportunities. Most consumer experience models are built around an Attract, (how a user becomes aware of a Internal product) engage (how a user interacts with a product) and extend (how a user shares or repurchases a product) timeline.

The approach also generates questions designed to fill gaps in organizational knowledge that can determine appropriate strategies. In turn, these questions help organizations decide whether to build upon current strengths in response to benefi-cial trends or mitigate present weaknesses in the face of chal-lenging trends. The research questions above were generated by comparing a company’s strategic weaknesses to potentially threatening influences.

In 360 trends analysis, discrete steps of the consumer journey are passed through a trend to inspire design opportunities. Here we see a company compare a few consumer experiences relevant to the home fixtures category against observed trends to generate potential design opportunities.

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To illustrate how the targeted trend analysis process works we created, Aquar, a fictional household bathroom fixtures company.

AQUARAN EXAMPLE

Consider Aquar, a fictional household bathroom fixtures company. Initially, Aquar uses the CISE model as a way to collect influences related to its product line and company strategy. In order to return a comprehensive set of trends, the company solicits observations from a broad range of internal discipline leaders including R&D, marketing and operations. It also consults external experts and data to gather information from other domains like consumer electronics, house-hold goods, architecture, industrial design, etc.

The company then selects the trends it deems most relevant to its objectives and strategic direction. It uses criteria like predicted longevity and probability of occurrence to prioritize and select trends of the most importance.

For example, the company believes that the increasing scarcity of water will continue to be a long term consideration with a high likelihood of impacting its core product design.

The next step of the process requires Aquar to address its understanding of its strengths and weaknesses, using both internal and external sources of information. Once the company has compiled a list of relevant external trend influ-ences and has acquired a sense of its strengths and weak-nesses, it begins the process of cross-referencing this data to uncover opportunities.

For example, as a 100-year-old company, Aquar’s strengths include an established brand equity associated with quality, durability and excellent craftsmanship. It has also recently launched a fairly successful line of luxury home spa fixtures in its domestic market. The company understands that the current economic environment has trended consumer senti-ment toward products that evoke stable traditions and authentic heritage. From a marketing point of view, this may be a good time for Aquar to refocus on the strength its original brand story, instead of its current attempts to feature more contemporary designs.

Another positive trend for Aquar highlights strong global growth in the luxury market. This prompts the company to investigate how its luxury spa line could be adapted for greater appeal outside the domestic market. For example, how do consumers in different regions perceive luxury? How could Aquar accommodate these different attitudes and per-spectives? How would these consumer insights be rendered into appropriate designs, considering its competitors’ designs are largely undifferentiated?

In examining its weaknesses, Aquar understands that it has been focusing solely on hardware and traditional materials. This weakness is of particular relevance given the rising trend of ‘smart’ technologies that integrate software-based fea-tures into durables and appliances. Further, Aquar is losing domestic market share after the unexpected and success-ful introduction of washlets by its competitors (a washlet is essentially an electric bidet. Some models even have wireless capabilities).

The company knows it can bide its time and hope that these trends are mere fads (although prior introductions in other markets show no reversal), or examine ways to authentically incorporate electronic features into its products. To do this, the company will need to carefully investigate consumers’ percep-tions of these features within the context of the Aquar brand. Ultimately, this process will have a broader impact by helping to reinvigorate product lines, unearth new business opportuni-ties and support discontinuous innovation.

By comparing its strengths and weaknesses to trends that could potentially reinforce or threaten its position, Aquar can respond to opportunities in a more relevant and targeted man-ner. If Aquar wishes to address opportunities for design at the consumer experience level, it can use the 360 model for inspi-ration. For example, how might the design and brand-oriented trend of ‘handcrafted luxury’ -- where craft, art and tradition reign -- affect the 360-degree product experience of Aquar’s consumer? Questions like this can quickly generate designs worthy of validation.

Consider Aquar’s present (yet not exhaustive) model of the consumer’s experience with the product:1. Situate and install2. Use3. Maintain

Using this as a guide, the company can now quickly generate design opportunities that address consumer desire for handcrafted luxury in each of these stages: More opportunities for installers to add personal touches. More malleable materi-als could emphasize hand-crafted value. Addition of delicate materials that beautiful patina would enhance the use experi-ence. Inclusion of luxurious, natural finishes that minimize the need for cleaning.

The options are as limited as an organization’s imagination. If Aquar extends the consumer experience model into steps like learning about the product or shopping for it, more opportunities are generated.

A trend analysis helps Aquar prioritize strategies in response to changing markets.

Trend analysis is less about style and more about substance.

CONCLUSION

1. Consider the scope of your project. Will the outcome gener-ate incremental innovations or discontinuous innovations?

2. Gather a large team of individuals to trend-generation brainstorms. Make sure as many perspectives as possible are present from a wide variety of workgroups and domains. Bring in external experts to assist generating trend in domains with which your organization is unfamiliar.

3. Once trends have been identified, try to determine their place on the cycle of adoption. Are they newly emerging? Are they mostly hype? Have they begun to gain adoption?

4. Determine your organization’s comfort with emerging trends. Is it more comfortable following trends or more eager to be a trend influencer? Following a trend runs the risk of generating ‘me too’ products and experiences. Adopting cut-ting edge influences exposes organizations to fads.

5. Determine which trends align well with your organization’s strengths. Identify questions can you ask to inform strategies that will reinforce these strengths.

6. Determine which trends may expose organizational weak-nesses. Identify questions you can ask to fill gaps in compe-tencies. Determine if current organizational strengths can be leveraged or modified to address threatening trends.

Authored by Reece Dano, Researcher and Strategist at ArtefactReece is a design researcher who has investigated user behaviors and analyzed trends for a broad range of industries, including consumer electronics, house-hold goods, durable goods, medical, athletic apparel, finance, retail and hospital-ity. Reece has a Master of Library and Information Science from the University of Washington and a Master of Music Composition from The Peabody Conservatory of The Johns Hopkins University.

The outcome of a more targeted approach to trends analysis is not one of simply being in-the-know, but being empowered to deliver in-spired, informed and innovative design. It requires an organization to be frank about its strengths and weaknesses so it can mitigate chal-lenges, improve its existing situation and explore exciting opportunities.