Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO - Southwest...

23
Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO Cowen and Company 9 th Annual Global Transportation Conference September 7, 2016

Transcript of Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO - Southwest...

Page 1: Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO - Southwest Airlinesinvestors.southwest.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/... · 2016-09-07 · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within

Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO Cowen and Company 9th Annual Global Transportation Conference September 7, 2016

Page 2: Tammy Romo, EVP and CFO - Southwest Airlinesinvestors.southwest.com/~/media/Files/S/Southwest-IR/... · 2016-09-07 · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are based on, and include statements about, the Company’s estimates, expectations, beliefs, intentions, and strategies for the future, and are not guarantees of future performance. Specific forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include without limitation statements related to (i) the Company’s vision; (ii) the Company’s financial goals, strategies, expectations, opportunities, and outlook, and its projected results of operations, including specific factors expected to impact the Company’s results of operations; (iii) the Company’s expectations with respect to liquidity (including its plans for the repayment of debt and capital lease obligations) and capital expenditures; (iv) the Company’s expectations and goals with respect to returning value to Shareholders; (v) the Company’s fleet plans and strategies, including its fleet modernization initiatives; (vi) the Company’s plans and expectations with respect to labor matters; (vii) the Company’s expectations related to its management of risk associated with changing jet fuel prices; and (viii) the Company’s growth plans, strategies, and opportunities, including its network and capacity plans, opportunities, and expectations. Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors that are difficult to predict and that could cause actual results to vary materially from those expressed in or indicated by them. Factors include, among others, (i) changes in demand for the Company’s services and other changes in consumer behavior; (ii) the impact of economic conditions, fuel prices, actions of competitors (including, without limitation, pricing, scheduling, and capacity decisions and consolidation and alliance activities), and other factors beyond the Company’s control, on the Company’s business decisions, plans, and strategies; (iii) the Company’s ability to timely and effectively implement, transition, and maintain the necessary information technology systems and infrastructure to support its operations and initiatives; (iv) the Company’s dependence on third parties, in particular with respect to its fleet plans; (v) the impact of governmental regulations and other governmental actions related to the Company’s operations; (vi) the Company’s ability to timely and effectively prioritize its initiatives and related expenditures; (vii) the impact of labor matters on the Company’s business decisions, plans, strategies, and costs; (viii) changes in aircraft fuel prices, the impact of hedge accounting, and any changes to the Company’s fuel hedging strategies and positions; and (ix) other factors, as described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the detailed factors discussed under the heading "Risk Factors" in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015.

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Competitive LUV differentiation

4

Best People and Culture in the airline industry

Distinctive Customer Service and Hospitality

Unmatched profitability record1 and strong balance sheet

Sustained cost discipline

Robust, reliable, and efficient point-to-point network

1In the U.S. Airline industry.

Respected low fare brand with Transfarency

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1. Apple 2. Alphabet (Google) 3. Amazon 4. Berkshire Hathaway 5. Walt Disney 6. Starbucks 7. Southwest Airlines 8. Federal Express 9. Nike 10. General Electric

FORTUNE’S 2016 World’s Most Admired Companies

Southwest’s brand reputation stands on its own

5 1No Hidden fees determined by having bag and reservation change/cancellation fees per domestic passenger below the industry average, as determined by Bureau of Transportation Statistics for the year ending March 31, 2016. 2Low fares defined by having an average domestic fare below the industry average US domestic fare, as determined by data from the Department of Transportation O&D survey for the year ending March 31, 2016. 3First and second checked pieces of luggage, size and weight limits apply. 4There are never change fees, though fare differences might apply.

TransfarencySM is a philosophy created by Southwest Airlines in which Customers are treated honestly and fairly, and low fares actually stay low—no unexpected bag fees3, change fees4, or hidden fees

No

Hid

den

Fees

1

Low Fares2

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Without a Heart, it’s just a machine

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Rapid Rewards® Frequent Flyer Program

100% seat availability No blackout dates Points don’t expire

Exceptional Inflight Offerings Live TV $8 Wi-Fi flat rate per day Complimentary snacks and beverages

“It’s a good experience. I feel a sense of Hospitality that other airlines do not have.”

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A record first half of 2016

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33.5% ROIC, pre-tax1

83.2% load factor

$1.3B net income2

$361M profitsharing

for Employees

$1.4B returned to

Shareholders

0.9% nonfuel

CASM2,3, y/y

$10.2B operating revenues

1ROIC is defined as annual pre-tax return on invested capital, excluding special items, for the twelve months ended June 30, 2016. 2excluding special items. 3excluding profitsharing. Note: See reconciliation of reported amounts to non-GAAP financial measures.

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Significant profit expansion

8 1Excludes special items. Note: See reconciliation of reported amounts to non-GAAP financial measures.

Our profits and margins have dramatically improved over the past five years, as planned, from a successful implementation of our strategic initiatives

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

$-

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1H 2012 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2015 1H 2016

Net incomeNet margin

Net

inco

me

(in m

illio

ns) N

et margin

Y/Y % Change 79.6 28.6 86.3 86.9 16.1

1

1

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Delivering strong returns on investment

9 1ROIC is defined as annual pre-tax return on invested capital, excluding special items. ROIC is for the 12 months ended June 30 in each year shown. Note: See reconciliation of reported amounts to non-GAAP financial measures.

• AirTran integration

• All New Rapid Rewards

• International

• Fleet modernization/Boeing 737-800

• Network optimization • Low fuel prices

Drivers of ROIC Expansion

Y/Y Pt. Change (0.9) 0.7 8.6 11.1 5.3

ROIC, pre-tax1

7.8% 8.5%

17.1%

28.2%

33.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Compelling competitive returns

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Source: Third party investment firm and Company results. 1Southwest ROIC is defined as annual pre-tax return on invested capital, excluding special items, for the last twelve months. For all others, the standardized ROIC calculation methodology equal to (EBIT + Rent Expense) / Average Invested Capital. Invested Capital = Total Debt + Shareholder Equity + Preferred Equity + Noncontrolling Interest + Capitalized Rent. Rent capitalized at 7.0x for industrial companies and 8.0x for consumer discretionary companies; Excludes annual individual constituent company ROICs of greater than 100% or less than (100%). 2U.S. Airlines includes AA, UA, DL, AS, B6, HA, VX, NK and G4, and excludes Southwest. 3See reconciliation of reported amounts to non-GAAP financial measures.

15.9% 18.3%

23.7% 23.7%

32.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S&P 500

Consumer Discretionary

Transports

U.S. Airlines

Southwest Airlines

2

Southwest not only exceeded the U.S Airlines, Transports, and Consumer Discretionary returns, but more than doubled the S&P 500

2015 Return on Invested Capital1

3

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Industry-leading revenue performance

11 Note: As reported in quarterly releases. Industry ex-SWA is the unweighted average of Alaska, Allegiant, American (includes US 4Q2013 forward), Delta, JetBlue, Spirit (2Q2012 forward), United, and Virgin (3Q2014 forward) results.

4.8%

6.4%

0.6%

1.9% 1.8%

-2.4%

4.5% 3.8%

3.1%

8.4%

4.5%

2.0%

0.0%

-4.7%

-0.4% -0.7%

0.1% 0.6%

7.8%

4.5%

0.2%

-0.5%

2.6%

-1.7%

3.7% 3.9%

1.7%

5.5%

-0.1%

-1.7%

-3.7%

-6.9%

-5.8% -5.8%

-7.3% -7.6%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1Q20

12

2Q20

12

3Q20

12

4Q20

12

1Q20

13

2Q20

13

3Q20

13

4Q20

13

1Q20

14

2Q20

14

3Q20

14

4Q20

14

1Q20

15

2Q20

15

3Q20

15

4Q20

15

1Q20

16

2Q20

16

Southwest

Industry ex-SWA

Southwest has outperformed the industry in terms of unit revenues every quarter since the beginning of 2014

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Sustaining a strong financial position

12 1Includes off balance sheet aircraft leases. Note: Information presented is for the six months ended June 30, 2016.

Investment grade rating by

all three agencies

• $3.4 billion in unrestricted core cash and short-term

investments and $1 billion line of credit fully undrawn and available

• Balance Sheet leverage of 34%1

• Cash flow from operations of $2.7 billion

• Decades-long history of returning capital

• Manageable debt repayments

• Capital spend is expected to bend down after 2017

Strong balance sheet

Returned approximately $1.4 billion to

Shareholders in 1H 2016

Southwest is focused on preserving a strong balance sheet and healthy cash flows while returning significant value to Shareholders

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13 Source: For DAL Moody’s rating, Moody’s press release dated February 11, 2016. For all other ratings, Bloomberg as of August 1, 2016. Moody’s Senior Unsecured rating used (if unavailable, Long Term Corporate Family rating used); S&P’s Long-term Issuer rating used; Fitch’s Senior Unsecured rating used (if unavailable, Long-term Issuer rating used). Note: Please see S&P disclaimer language at the end of this presentation.

Industry-leading balance sheet Non-investment grade Investment grade

S&P/ Fitch B- B B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A-

Moody’s B3 B2 B1 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3

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Returning significant value back to Shareholders

14 1Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flows less capital expenditures less assets constructed for others, net. 2Average market share calculated as average of market share at the beginning and end of each respective year; 2016 average is calculated with beginning of year and market share on June 30, 2016. Note: See reconciliation of reported amounts to non-GAAP financial measures.

Launched $250 million ASR on July 25, 2016; $1.25 billion remaining on current $2 billion share buyback authorization

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Free cash flowShare repurchasesDividends

2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 1H 2016

1 >$5.0B Returned to

Shareholders

% of avg market share2 2.9 6.0 5.9 5.2 4.8 5.3

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Only domestic carrier with decades-long history of returning capital

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0 5 10 15 20 25

United

American

Delta

Southwest

JetBlue

Alaska

Hawaiian

Spirit

Allegiant

USAir

Northwest

<$0.1 <$0.1

(in billions)

’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15

January 2008 $253MM Special Dividend

$0.3 $0.5 $0.3 $0.1 <$0.1 $0.3 $0.3 $1.2

$0.7 $0.9 $0.9 $1.2 $4.1

$0.5 $0.4

<$0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1

$0.4 $0.2 $0.7 $0.6 $0.5 $0.6 $0.2 $1.4 $2.6 $0.4

<$0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2

$0.1

<$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1

$0.1

Dividend Only Share Repurchase Only Dividend and Share Repurchase

<$0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.1

<$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.4 $0.6 $0.1 $0.1

$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 $0.4 $0.6 $1.1 $1.4 $0.2 $1.0 <$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 $0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 <$0.1 <$0.1 $0.1 $0.8 $0.3 <$0.1

Source: Third party investment firm. Note: <$5MM share repurchase classified to be de minimis.

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Investing in our business

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$-

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

2016

OtherFacilitiesTechnologyAC Capex

2016 Capex breakdown (in billions)

Capital spending is expected to remain manageable

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Restructured order book

deferred $1.9B

Aircraft capex (in billions)

Note: Reflects restructure of order book that was announced on June 23, 2016 at the Company’s Investor Day.

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Restructured future delivery schedule to provide significant flexibility

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61 67

29

15 14 14 15

34 41 40

0

20

40

60

80

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Boeing pre-owned (737-700)Boeing firm (737-800)Boeing firm (737-8/737-7)

Options ─ ─ 18 5 8 18 19 23 23 36 36 23

1The Company has flexibility to substitute 737-7 in lieu of 737-8 aircraft beginning in 2019. 2Includes 14 737-800s and 19 737-700s delivered as of June 30, 2016. Note: As of June 30, 2016.

1

2

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Committed to sustaining our low cost advantage

18 Source: DOT form 41 and T100 data, through March 31, 2016. Stage-length adjusted for Southwest’s average stage-length, represents domestic mainline. 1Industry airlines: AA, AQ, AS, B6, CO, DH, DL, F9, FL, G4, HA, HP, NK, NW, TW, TZ, UA, US, WN, VX,YX and excludes Southwest.

While the gap to the industry has contracted over the past 10 years, we are committed to preserving a meaningful competitive cost advantage

(in c

ents

)

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

1Q 2000 1Q 2016

SouthwestIndustry1

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The nation’s largest domestic airline

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30% 20%

14%

LA Basin (LAX, LGB, ONT, SNA, BUR)

27% 27% 25%

Chicago (MDW, ORD)

32% 25%

17%

DC/BWI Area (BWI, DCA, IAD)

37% 25%

15%

Denver

Source: Data presented herein as measured by the Department of Transportation O&D Survey for the twelve months ended March 31, 2016 based on domestic originating passengers boarded. O&D stands for Origin and Destination. 1Metro Areas: An area around a city that includes multiple major airports. 2In terms of domestic passenger traffic. 3Co-terminal: Airports that share a common city or region; for example Newark, LaGuardia and JFK are considered co-terminals to one another.

• 24% of total domestic market share • Market leader in 27 of the top 50 U.S.

metro areas1,2 • 68% market share in Southwest

Airlines top 100 O&D city pairs • Serve 95 of the top 100 domestic

O&D city pairs (including co-terminal airports3)

Market share

LUV OA #1 OA #2

Southwest has a strong market presence in many of the nation’s top metro areas

32% 22%

11%

Bay Area (OAK, SFO, SJC)

38%

11% 10%

Las Vegas

41% 34%

10%

Phoenix

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• Expand/optimize domestic network • Canada • Caribbean • Mexico • Central America • Northern reaches of South America

Where can we go?

• 2016 capacity (ASM) growth, year-over-year will be in the 5-6 percent range

• Long Beach • Los Angeles to Mexico

• Cuba • 2017 and 2018 YOY capacity growth

will be less than 2016’s YOY growth • Fort Lauderdale

Where are we going?

Exciting opportunities to further strengthen our robust network

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Non-GAAP Reconciliation

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(in millions, except per share amounts)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Fuel and oil expense, unhedged $ 2,577 $ 3,022 $ 2,847 $ 2,776 $ 1,792 $ 1,293 Add (Deduct): Fuel hedge (gains) losses included in Fuel and oil expense (12) 65 99 (37) 90 462 Fuel and oil expense, as reported $ 2,565 $ 3,087 $ 2,946 $ 2,739 $ 1,882 $ 1,755 Add (Deduct): Net impact from fuel contracts 6 10 (49) (14) (9) 22 Fuel and oil expense, non-GAAP (economic) $ 2,571 $ 3,097 $ 2,897 $ 2,725 $ 1,873 $ 1,777

Total operating expenses, as reported $ 6,917 $ 8,125 $ 8,224 $ 8,187 $ 7,660 $ 7,990 Deduct: Union contract bonuses - - - - (55) - Add (Deduct): Net impact from fuel contracts 6 10 (49) (14) (9) 22 Deduct: Acquisition and integration costs (72) (24) (39) (56) (26) - Add: Litigation settlement - - - - 37 - Deduct: Asset impairment - - - - - (21)Total operating expenses, non-GAAP $ 6,851 $ 8,111 $ 8,136 $ 8,117 $ 7,607 $ 7,991 Deduct: Fuel and oil expense, non-GAAP (economic) (2,571) (3,097) (2,897) (2,725) (1,873) (1,777)

Operating expenses, non-GAAP, excluding Fuel and oil expense $ 4,280 $ 5,014 $ 5,239 $ 5,392 $ 5,734 $ 6,214

Deduct: Profitsharing expense (308) (361)Operating expenses, non-GAAP, excluding Profitsharing and fuel $ 5,426 $ 5,853

Net income, as reported $ 166 $ 327 $ 283 $ 617 $ 1,061 $ 1,333 Add: Union contract bonuses - - - - 55 - Add (Deduct): Mark-to-market impact from fuel contracts settling in future periods

(139) (156) (35) (40) 91 (5)

Add (Deduct): Ineffectiveness from fuel hedges settling in future periods

37 39 12 (41) (15) 1

Add (Deduct): Other net impact of fuel contracts settling in the current or a prior period (excluding reclassifications)

(15) (22) 56 14 9 (29)

Add: Acquisition and integration costs1 72 24 39 56 26 - Deduct: Litigation settlement - - - - (37) - Add: Asset impairment - - - - - 21 Add (Deduct): Income tax impact of fuel and special items2 21 43 (27) 5 (48) 5

Net income, non-GAAP $ 142 $ 255 $ 328 $ 611 $ 1,142 $ 1,326

Six Months Ended June 30,Twelve

Months Ended December 31,

20113 20123 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015Operating income, as reported $ 892 $ 853 $ 645 $ 1,766 $ 3,100 $ 4,471 $ 4,116 Special revenue adjustment4 - - - - - (172) (172)Union contract bonuses - - - - 64 279 334 Net impact from fuel contracts 65 (3) 92 49 23 (354) (323)Acquisition and integration costs, net1 79 83 198 103 96 13 39 Asset impariment5 - 14 - - - 21 - Litigation settlement - - - - (37) - (37)Operating income, non-GAAP $ 1,036 $ 947 $ 935 $ 1,918 $ 3,246 $ 4,258 $ 3,957 Net adjustment for aircraft leases6 96 160 127 140 117 117 114 Adjustment for fuel hedge accounting (130) (68) (35) (78) (76) (159) (124) Adjusted Operating income, non-GAAP 1,002$ 1,039$ 1,027$ 1,980$ 3,287$ 4,216$ 3,947

Average invested capital7 11,351$ 13,037$ 11,937$ 11,581$ 11,196$ 11,524$ 11,037 Equity adjustment for hedge accounting 224 240 132 (25) 473 1,072 1,027 Adjusted average invested capital 11,575$ 13,277$ 12,069$ 11,556$ 11,669$ 12,596$ 12,064

ROIC, pre-tax 8.7% 7.8% 8.5% 17.1% 28.2% 33.5% 32.7%

Twelve Months Ended June 30,

Six Months Ended June 30,

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Net cash provided by operating activities 1,356 2,064 2,477 2,902 3,238 2,728 Capital expenditures (968) (1,348) (1,433) (1,748) (2,041) (900)Assets constructed for others - - (14) (80) (102) (37)Reimbursement for assets constructed for others - - - 27 24 35 Free cash flow $ 388 $ 716 $ 1,030 $ 1,101 $ 1,119 $ 1,826

Year Ended

1Amounts net of profitsharing impact on charges incurred through March 31, 2011. Pursuant to the terms of the Company’s ProfitSharing Plan, acquisition and integration costs were excluded from the calculation of profitsharing expense from April 1, 2011, through Dec. 31, 2013. These costs, totaling $385 million, are being amortized on a pro rata basis as a reduction of operating profits, as defined by the ProfitSharing Plan, from 2014 through 2018, in the calculation of profitsharing. In addition, acquisition and integration costs incurred during 2014 and future periods will reduce operating profits, as defined, in the calculation of profitsharing. 2Tax amounts for each individual special item are calculated at the Company's effective rate for the applicable period and totaled in this line item. 3Includes the impact of the AirTran acquisition as of May 2, 2011. 4The Company recorded a special revenue adjustment during third quarter 2015 of $172M related to its amended co-branded credit card agreement with Chase Bank USA, N.A. 5The 2012 amount is net of profitsharing impact. 6Net adjustment related to presumption that all aircraft in fleet are owned (i.e., the impact of eliminating aircraft rent expense and replacing with estimated depreciation expense for those same aircraft). 7Average Invested Capital is an average of the five most recent quarter end balances of debt, net present value of aircraft leases, and equity adjusted for hedge accounting.

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