Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

28
Non deal Road Show Raymond James April 14 - 16, 2008

Transcript of Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

Page 1: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

Non deal Road Show Raymond James

April 14 -

16, 2008

Page 2: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of

the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

Page 3: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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2007 was

a year

of

many

challenges

Macro Economy

Airline Industry

Airlines Brazil

TAM

High volatility (e.g. subprime crisis)

Fuel prices

Scarcity of aircraft, seats, etc due to overall growth in the sector

Conclusion of the “Varig” questionmarkChanges in the governing structure of theindustryCollapse of BRA

Impact of infrastructure on operations

Accident

Page 4: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Previousperiod

Currentperiod

J F MAM J J A S OND J F MAM J J A S ON D J F MAM J J A S OND J F M8085

9095

100

105110115

120125

130

Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The domestic market growth reached 12% in 2007 and 13.7% in March 2008

20072005 2006 2008

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth 2006

12%

Accum. market growth 2005

19%

Accum. market growth 2007

12%

Accum. market growth 2008

9.4%

Page 5: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recuperating, and grew 39% in March 2008

Previousperiod

Market

TAM

J F MAM J J A S OND J F MAM J J A S OND J F MAM J J A S OND J F M40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous period)

20072005 2006 2008

Source: ANAC

Accum. Marketgrowth 2008

52%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 200771%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum TAM 200863%

Accum. market growth 2005

7% Accum. market decrease 2006

30%Accum. market decrease 2007

5%

Page 6: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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We are both domestic and international market leaders

33,0%35,8%

48,0% 48,9% 51,4%

43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 mar/08

Domestic Market Share*Domestic Market Share*

Source: ANAC

* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer

12,0% 14,3%

37,5%

67,5% 68,9%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 mar/08

International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriersInternational Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers

Page 7: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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With higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements

53.3%

46.7%

53.8%

46.2%

71.5%

28.5%

65.0%

35.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007*0

20

40

60

80

100%

% international traffic

Braziliancarriers

Intlcarriers

* estimates

Page 8: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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We are strengthening our product in the international market through fleet and network

Increased widebody fleet plan for the next 10 years, substituting older aircraft

2 A340s (delivered in 2007)

8 B777-300ERs (4 in 2008, 4 in 2012)

22 A350s (as of 2013)

New A330 reducing fleet average age

Complete phase-out of F100 (impact on intra South American routes)

Expansion of network through additional destinations and frequencies

New full code share agreements at each major country – United Airlines; Lufthansa; LAN Group and TAP

Focus on South American coverage – integration of TAM Mercosur activities

Page 9: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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The international operations works as a natural hedge

24%

76%

33%

67%

2006 20070

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)

DomesticInternational

Dollarexchangerate

DomesticInternational

2.138

73%27%

1.771

64%36%

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies-17%

ASK proportion

Revenues originated in the

international operations are

expected to reach 45% - 50% until

Dec/2008

Revenues originated in the

international operations are

expected to reach 45% - 50% until

Dec/2008

Page 10: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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514486

1,537

5,162

733

777

2,130

4,834

2006 2007

7,700

8,474

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Gross Revenue (R$ M)

Dom.Pax

Int.Pax

Cargo

Others

Domestic passenger revenue decreased 6%

RPK increased 13%

ASK increased 17%

International passenger revenue grew 39%

RPK increased 66%

ASK increased 80%

Cargo revenue grew 60%

Other revenue grew 43%

Our gross revenue increased 10%...

10%

Page 11: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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...but total RASK decreased 17%...

RASK¹ ²

RASK scheduled domestic²Domestic Load factor - %

Yield Scheduled Domestic³

RASK scheduled Intl²Intl Load factor - %

Yield Scheduled Intl³

Yield Scheduled Intl (cents of USD)³

20072007

17.1

15.5

69.5

23.4

12.4

70.5

17.7

10.0

20062006

20.7

19.9

72.0

29.1

16.2

76.3

21.3

10.0

4T074T07

17.9

16.7

70.4

24.9

11.3

71.0

15.9

9.0

R$ Cents

1 Includes charter, cargo and Other revenues, net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

4T064T06

19.3

17.5

69.7

26.4

16.6

73.7

22.6

10.6

YearYear

-17%

-22%

-2.5 p.p.

-19%

-23%

-5.8 p.p.

-17%

0%

QuarterQuarter

-7%

-5%

0.7 p.p.

-6%

-32%

-2.7 p.p.

-30%

-15%

VariationVariationYearYear QuarterQuarter

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CASK excl-fuel

2006 2007

17.8516.57

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents

Variation

-5%

-7%

...while total CASK reduced 7%...

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...reducing the spread (RASK-CASK) in BR GAAP...

2006 2007

20.717.9 17.1 16.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)

RASKCASK

EBITDARMargin

EBITMargin

Spread

24.7%

13.6%

2.8

15.4%

3.2%

0.6

BR GAAP

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...and US GAAP...

2006 2007

20.617.5 17.1 16.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)

RASKCASK

EBITDARMargin

EBITMargin

Spread

23.1%

14.9%

3.1

14.6%

5.1%

0.9

US GAAP

Page 15: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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2006 2007

4.06

0.86

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

2006 2007

5.40

3.11

Earnings per share US GAAP (R$)

-79%

...reducing our earnings per share

-42%

Page 16: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

129

497

-1658 469

0

200

400

600

800

Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP

44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

44 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

Page 17: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Our balance sheet remains solid

R$ million - BRGAAP 2007 2006 2005 2004

Cash 2,607 2,453 995 297

Short-Term Debt 1,005 363 216 204

Long-Term Debt 1,345 895 425 399

Total Debt 2,350 1,258 641 603

Shareholder's Equity 1,492 1,449 760 191

Capitalization 2,837 2,344 1,185 590

Aircraft and flight equipment leases 6,166 5,032 4,389 4,557

Total Debt Adjusted 8,516 6,290 5,030 5,160

Total Capitalization Adjusted 9,003 7,376 5,574 5,147

Debt / Capitalization 83% 54% 54% 102%

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 95% 85% 90% 100%

Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization 66% 52% 72% 94%

Page 18: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Brazilian domestic market has high growth potential

Boardings per capita

Boardings per capita, adjusted by GDP per capita at PPPSource: World Bank Data, Credit Suisse Research as of 2006

Annual Trips / Person

1.70

1.85

2.32

0.62

0.60

0.55

0.50

0.82

Japan

US

Argentina

Chile

Mexico

Russia

Brazil

Germany

100107.3 111.4

117.4100

140.6

157.6

100

121.2

175.4

228.2

256.8

104.9

176.4

112.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Market’s RPK

GDP

TAM’s RPK

Growth of Brazilian Domestic Market

Page 19: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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High concentration of passengers in 10 airports

Source: ANAC

% Total Domestic Passengers Boarded

Curitiba

Recife

PortoAlegre

Confins

Salvador

Galeão

Guarulhos

Brasília

Congonhas

Santos Dumont

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

% TAM slots

44%

42%

33%

30%

39%

37%

27%

39%

36%

25%

Important barrier to entry for newcomers

Limited ability for other competitors to grow

10 main airports in Brazil carry 70% of all passenger traffic

TAM has in aggregate ~40% of all slots available in these airports

Page 20: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important

Leis

ure

Busi

nes

s

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

17.9

26.6 27.025.2

28.2

35.4

39.7

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)

CAGR

11%

22%

Traveling is one of the top “desire”

items for consumption

* TAM Estimates

Page 21: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008...

Addition of extra features in the segmented bundles

Ability to “sell up”categories

Potential for further revenue increase

Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth

Page 22: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007

Payment at lottery storesApproximately 9,000 stores in Brazil

Already functioning as bank correspondent

Billing slipsAutomatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with the main retail banks

Focus on leisure/lower income segments

Page 23: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours

* Average day in October, 2007

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2350

55

60

65

70

75

80%

Domestic load factor per hour

Off Peak Off Peak Off PeakPeakPeak

Page 24: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company

TAM Linhas AéreasTAM Linhas Aéreas

MRO(São Carlos)

MRO(São Carlos)

Loyalty Program Loyalty

Program HandlingHandlingCargoCargo

Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets

None or little focus on selling services to third-parties Not structured as business units

Page 25: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Stocks performance since our IPO

www.tam.com.br/irwww.tam.com.br/ir

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

IPOJun/14/2005

Follow-onMar/10/2006

TAMM4 TAMN IBOV DJBR20

Apr/7/2008

149%

103%

90%

13%

Page 26: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Maintain the leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of

Domestic 14%

International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2008Guidance 2008

TAMTAM

MarketMarket

We have a positive outlook for 2008

Page 27: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan

3

14

88

10

4

18

101

4

20

104

4

22

110

4

24

113

8

24

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

115123

128136

141147

0

50

100

150

Total fleet

B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100

Since dec/07 we

are monofleet in

domestic operations

Since dec/07 we

are monofleet in

domestic operations

Page 28: Tam Apresentacao Raymond James 20080415 Eng

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Non deal Road Show Raymond James

April 14 -

16, 2008