Taller Atrasado - William Pachon

MOVIL SIMPLE

N = 2 - COMERCION = 4 - COMERCION = 6 - COMERCIOMESCOMERCION=2ERRORMADMAPEMSEMESN =4ERRORMADMAPEMSEMESN =6ERRORMADMAPEMSE1322112317223319319.50.50.50.00156739810.25334323318-550.015479876225445327321-660.0183486239365320.25-6.756.750.020642201845.562556328325-330.009146341596321.5-6.56.50.019817073242.2567325327.52.52.50.00769230776.257324.25-0.750.750.00230769230.56257322.67-2.3332.33333333330.00717948725.44444444448326326.50.50.50.00153374230.258325.75-0.250.250.00076687120.06258323.17-2.8332.83333333330.00869120658.02777777789330325.5-4.54.50.013636363620.259326.5-3.53.50.010606060612.259324.67-5.3335.33333333330.016161616228.444444444410334328-660.01796407193610327.25-6.756.750.020209580845.562510326.50-7.5007.50.022455089856.2511337332-550.01483679532511328.75-8.258.250.024480712268.062511328.33-8.6678.66666666670.025717111875.111111111112341335.5-5.55.50.016129032330.2512331.75-9.259.250.027126099785.562512330.00-11.000110.03225806451211332233917170.052795031128913335.513.513.50.0419254658182.2513332.1710.16710.16666666670.031573499103.361111111114318331.513.513.50.0424528302182.2514333.515.515.50.0487421384240.2514331.6713.66713.66666666670.0429769392186.777777777815320320000.0000000000015329.59.59.50.029687590.2515330.3310.33310.33333333330.0322916667106.777777777816326319-770.02147239264916325.25-0.750.750.00230061350.562516328.672.6672.66666666670.00817995917.111111111117332323-990.02710843378117321.5-10.510.50.031626506110.2517327.33-4.6674.66666666670.014056224921.777777777818334329-550.01497005992518324-10100.029940119810018326.50-7.5007.50.022455089856.2519335333-220.0059701493419328-770.02089552244919325.33-9.6679.66666666670.028855721493.444444444420336334.5-1.51.50.00446428572.2520331.75-4.254.250.012648809518.062520327.50-8.5008.50.02529761972.2521335335.50.50.50.00149253730.2521334.25-0.750.750.0022388060.562521330.50-4.5004.50.013432835820.2522338335.5-2.52.50.00739644976.2522335-330.0088757396922333.00-5.00050.01479289942523342336.5-5.55.50.016081871330.2523336-660.01754385963623335.00-7.00070.02046783634924348340-880.02298850576424337.75-10.2510.250.029454023105.062524336.67-11.33311.33333333330.0325670498128.44444444442533034515150.045454545522525340.7510.7510.750.0325757576115.562525339.009.00090.0272727273812632633913130.039877300616926339.513.513.50.0414110429182.2526338.1712.16712.16666666670.0373210634148.027777777827329328-110.0030395137127336.57.57.50.022796352656.2527336.507.5007.50.022796352656.2528337327.5-9.59.50.028189911090.2528333.25-3.753.750.011127596414.062528335.50-1.5001.50.00445103862.2529345333-12120.034782608714429330.5-14.514.50.0420289855210.2529335.33-9.6679.66666666670.028019323793.444444444430350341-990.02571428578130334.25-15.7515.750.045248.062530335.83-14.16714.16666666670.0404761905200.694444444431351347.5-3.53.50.009971510012.2531340.25-10.7510.750.0306267806115.562531336.17-14.83314.83333333330.0422602089220.027777777832354350.5-3.53.50.009887005612.2532345.75-8.258.250.023305084768.062532339.67-14.33314.33333333330.0404896422205.444444444433355352.5-2.52.50.00704225356.2533350-550.0140845072533344.33-10.66710.66666666670.0300469484113.777777777834357354.5-2.52.50.00700280116.2534352.5-4.54.50.01260504220.2534348.67-8.3338.33333333330.023342670469.444444444435362356-660.01657458563635354.25-7.757.750.021408839860.062535352.00-10.000100.027624309410036368359.5-8.58.50.023097826172.2536357-11110.029891304312136354.83-13.16713.16666666670.0357789855173.36111111113734836517170.048850574728937360.512.512.50.0359195402156.2537357.839.8339.83333333330.02825670596.69444444443834535813130.037681159416938358.7513.7513.750.0398550725189.062538357.3312.33312.33333333330.0357487923152.111111111139349346.5-2.52.50.00716332386.2539355.756.756.750.019340974245.562539355.836.8336.83333333330.019579751746.694444444440355347-880.02253521136440352.5-2.52.50.00704225356.2540354.83-0.1670.16666666670.00046948360.027777777841362352-10100.027624309410041349.25-12.7512.750.0352209945162.562541354.50-7.5007.50.02071823256.2542367358.5-8.58.50.023160762972.2542352.75-14.2514.250.0388283379203.062542354.50-12.50012.50.0340599455156.2543366364.5-1.51.50.00409836072.2543358.25-7.757.750.021174863460.062543354.33-11.66711.66666666670.0318761384136.111111111144370366.5-3.53.50.009459459512.2544362.5-7.57.50.020270270356.2544357.33-12.66712.66666666670.0342342342160.444444444445371368-330.0080862534945366.25-4.754.750.012803234522.562545361.50-9.5009.50.02560646990.2546375370.5-4.54.50.012000000020.2546368.5-6.56.50.017333333342.2546365.17-9.8339.83333333330.026222222296.694444444447380373-770.01842105264947370.5-9.59.50.02590.2547368.50-11.50011.50.0302631579132.2548385377.5-7.57.50.019480519556.2548374-11110.028571428612148371.50-13.50013.50.0350649351182.2549361382.521.521.50.0595567867462.2549377.7516.7516.750.046398892280.562549374.5013.50013.50.0373961219182.255035437319190.053672316436150375.2521.2521.250.0600282486451.562550373.6719.66719.66666666670.0555555556386.777777777851357357.50.50.50.00140056020.255137013130.036414565816951371.0014.000140.039215686319652367355.5-11.511.50.0313351499132.2552364.25-2.752.750.0074931887.562552368.671.6671.66666666670.00454132612.777777777853376362-14140.037234042619653359.75-16.2516.250.0432180851264.062553367.33-8.6678.66666666670.023049645475.111111111154381371.5-9.59.50.024934383290.2554363.5-17.517.50.0459317585306.2554366.67-14.33314.33333333330.0376202975205.444444444455381378.5-2.52.50.00656167986.2555370.25-10.7510.750.0282152231115.562555366.00-15.000150.039370078722556383381-220.0052219321456376.25-6.756.750.017624020945.562556369.33-13.66713.66666666670.0356832028186.777777777857384382-220.0052083333457380.25-3.753.750.00976562514.062557374.17-9.8339.83333333330.025607638996.694444444458387383.5-3.53.50.009043927612.2558382.25-4.754.750.012273901822.562558378.67-8.3338.33333333330.021533161169.444444444459392385.5-6.56.50.016581632742.2559383.75-8.258.250.021045918468.062559382.00-10.000100.025510204110060396389.5-6.56.50.016414141442.2560386.5-9.59.50.02398989990.2560384.67-11.33311.33333333330.0286195286128.4444444444SUM-1143811.08988711933979.5SUM-178.25486.751.38245631815467.6875SUM-229.167515.83333333331.45509189085789.1944444444

N=58N=56N=54ME-1.97ME-3.183ME-4.24MAD6.57MAD8.692MAD9.55MAPE1.88MAPE2.469MAPE2.69MSE68.61MSE97.637MSE107.21DESV8.28DESV9.881DESV10.358.2110.86511.94

N=2 ALIMENTOSN=4 ALIMENTOSN=6 ALIMENTOSMESALIMENTON=2ERRORMADMAPEMSEMESN =4ERRORMADMAPEMSEMESN =4ERRORMADMAPEMSE153.51125322353.253.250.050.050.00093984960.002533452.553.10.60.60.01142857140.3644553.452.85-0.550.550.01029962550.3025553.05-0.350.350.00655430710.12255656.552.95-3.553.550.062831858412.6025653.025-3.4753.4750.061504424812.0756256765.354.95-10.3510.350.1584992343107.1225753.9-11.411.40.1745788668129.96753.6833333333-11.616666666711.61666666670.1778968862134.9469444444870.760.9-9.89.80.138613861496.04856.925-13.77513.7750.1948373409189.750625855.65-15.0515.050.2128712871226.5025966.9681.11.10.01644245141.21961.475-5.4255.4250.081091180929.430625958.6-8.38.30.124065769868.891058.268.810.610.60.1821305842112.361064.856.656.650.114261168444.22251060.88333333332.68333333332.68333333330.04610538377.20027777781155.362.557.257.250.131103074152.56251165.2759.9759.9750.180379746899.5006251161.83333333336.53333333336.53333333330.118143459942.68444444441253.456.753.353.350.062734082411.22251262.7759.3759.3750.175561797887.8906251262.158.758.750.163857677976.56251352.154.352.252.250.04318618045.06251358.456.356.350.121880998140.32251361.63333333339.53333333339.53333333330.182981445990.88444444441451.552.751.251.250.02427184471.56251454.753.253.250.063106796110.56251459.43333333337.93333333337.93333333330.154045307462.93777777781551.551.80.30.30.00582524270.091553.0751.5751.5750.03058252432.4806251556.23333333334.73333333334.73333333330.091909385122.40444444441652.451.5-0.90.90.01717557250.811652.125-0.2750.2750.00524809160.0756251653.66666666671.26666666671.26666666670.0241730281.60444444441753.351.95-1.351.350.02532833021.82251751.875-1.4251.4250.02673545972.0306251752.7-0.60.60.01125703560.361855.552.85-2.652.650.04774774777.02251852.175-3.3253.3250.059909909911.0556251852.3666666667-3.13333333333.13333333330.05645645659.81777777781964.254.4-9.89.80.152647975196.041953.175-11.02511.0250.171728972121.5506251952.7166666667-11.483333333311.48333333330.1788681205131.86694444442069.659.85-9.759.750.140086206995.06252056.35-13.2513.250.1903735632175.56252054.7333333333-14.866666666714.86666666670.2136015326221.01777777782169.366.9-2.42.40.03463203465.762160.65-8.658.650.124819624874.82252157.75-11.5511.550.1666666667133.40252258.569.4510.9510.950.1871794872119.90252264.656.156.150.105128205137.82252260.71666666672.21666666672.21666666670.03789173794.91361111112355.363.98.68.60.155515370773.962365.410.110.10.1826401447102.012361.73333333336.43333333336.43333333330.116335141741.38777777782453.656.93.33.30.061567164210.892463.1759.5759.5750.178638059791.6806252462.06666666678.46666666678.46666666670.15796019971.68444444442552.354.452.152.150.04110898664.62252559.1756.8756.8750.131453154947.2656252561.759.459.450.180688336589.30252651.552.951.451.450.02815533982.10252654.9253.4253.4250.066504854411.7306252659.76666666678.26666666678.26666666670.160517799468.33777777782751.751.90.20.20.0038684720.042753.1751.4751.4750.02852998072.1756252756.755.055.050.097678916825.50252851.551.60.10.10.00194174760.012852.2750.7750.7750.01504854370.6006252853.81666666672.31666666672.31666666670.04498381885.36694444442952.251.6-0.60.60.01149425290.362951.75-0.450.450.00862068970.20252952.650.450.450.00862068970.20253057.151.85-5.255.250.09194395827.56253051.725-5.3755.3750.094133099828.8906253052.1333333333-4.96666666674.96666666670.086981903124.66777777783163.654.65-8.958.950.140723270480.10253153.125-10.47510.4750.1647012579109.7256253152.7166666667-10.883333333310.88333333330.1711215933118.44694444443268.860.35-8.458.450.122819767471.40253256.1-12.712.70.1845930233161.293254.6-14.214.20.2063953488201.643368.966.2-2.72.70.03918722797.293360.425-8.4758.4750.123004354171.8256253357.4833333333-11.416666666711.41666666670.1656990808130.34027777783460.168.858.758.750.145590682276.56253464.64.54.50.07487520820.253460.350.250.250.00415973380.06253555.664.58.98.90.160071942479.213565.359.759.750.175359712295.06253561.78333333336.18333333336.18333333330.111211031238.23361111113653.957.853.953.950.07328385915.60253663.359.459.450.175324675389.30253662.358.458.450.156771799671.40253753.354.751.451.450.02720450282.10253759.6256.3256.3250.118667917440.0056253761.81666666678.51666666678.51666666670.159787367172.53361111113853.153.60.50.50.00941619590.253855.7252.6252.6250.04943502826.8906253860.1770.131826742493953.553.2-0.30.30.00560747660.093953.9750.4750.4750.00887850470.2256253957.48333333333.98333333333.98333333330.074454828715.86694444444053.553.3-0.20.20.00373831780.044053.45-0.050.050.00093457940.00254054.91666666671.41666666671.41666666670.02647975082.00694444444153.953.5-0.40.40.00742115030.164153.35-0.550.550.01020408160.30254153.8166666667-0.08333333330.08333333330.0015460730.00694444444257.153.7-3.43.40.059544658511.564253.5-3.63.60.063047285512.964253.5333333333-3.56666666673.56666666670.062463514312.72111111114364.755.5-9.29.20.14219474584.644354.5-10.210.20.1576506955104.044354.0666666667-10.633333333310.63333333330.1643482741113.06777777784469.460.9-8.58.50.122478386272.254457.3-12.112.10.174351585146.414455.9666666667-13.433333333313.43333333330.1935638809180.45444444444570.367.05-3.253.250.04623044110.56254561.275-9.0259.0250.128378378481.4506254558.6833333333-11.616666666711.61666666670.1652441916134.94694444444662.669.857.257.250.115814696552.56254665.3752.7752.7750.04432907357.7006254661.4833333333-1.11666666671.11666666670.01783812571.24694444444757.966.458.558.550.147668393873.10254766.758.858.850.152849740978.322547635.15.10.088082901626.014855.860.254.454.450.079749103919.80254865.059.259.250.165770609385.56254863.66666666677.86666666677.86666666670.140979689461.88444444444954.856.852.052.050.03740875914.20254961.656.856.850.12546.92254963.458.658.650.157846715374.82255054.255.31.11.10.0202952031.215057.7753.5753.5750.065959409612.7806255061.87.67.60.140221402257.765154.654.5-0.10.10.00183150180.015155.6751.0751.0750.01968864471.1556255159.26666666674.66666666674.66666666670.085470085521.77777777785254.354.40.10.10.00184162060.015254.850.550.550.01012891340.30255256.652.352.350.04327808475.52255354.854.45-0.350.350.00638686130.12255354.475-0.3250.3250.00593065690.1056255355.26666666670.46666666670.46666666670.00851581510.21777777785458.154.55-3.553.550.061101549112.60255454.475-3.6253.6250.062392426913.1406255454.75-3.353.350.057659208311.22255568.156.45-11.6511.650.171071953135.72255555.45-12.6512.650.1857562408160.02255555.1333333333-12.966666666712.96666666670.1904062653168.13444444445673.363.1-10.210.20.139154161104.045658.825-14.47514.4750.1974761255209.5256255657.35-15.9515.950.2175989086254.40255775.570.7-4.84.80.063576158923.045763.575-11.92511.9250.1579470199142.2056255760.5333333333-14.966666666714.96666666670.1982339956224.00111111115866.474.4880.1204819277645868.752.352.350.03539156635.52255864.0166666667-2.38333333332.38333333330.03589357435.68027777785960.570.9510.4510.450.1727272727109.20255970.82510.32510.3250.170661157106.6056255966.03333333335.53333333335.53333333330.091460055130.61777777786057.763.455.755.750.099653379533.06256068.92511.22511.2250.1945407279126.0006256066.98333333339.28333333339.28333333330.160889659286.1802777778SUM-8.2257.74.19297427191990.985-22.875353.8755.79708010483289.414375-36.7333333333379.53333333336.24400568123732.66

N=58n=56n=54ME-0.141MAD4.443ME-0.4084821429ME-0.6802469136MAPE7.229MAD6.3191964286MAD7.0283950617MSE34.327MAPE10.3519287586MAPE11.5629734838DESV5.859MSE58.7395424107MSE69.12333333335.554Desviacion Estandar7.6641726501Desviacion Estandar8.31404434287.89899553578.7854938272

METALES n=2METALES n=4METALES n=6MesMetalesn=2ErrorError ABSError ABS/DtError^ 2n=4ErrorError ABSError ABS/DtError^ 2n=6ErrorError ABSError ABS/DtError^ 2144.2244.3344.444.25-0.150.150.00337837840.0225443.444.350.950.950.02188940090.9025542.843.91.11.10.02570093461.2144.0751.2751.2750.02978971961.625625644.343.1-1.21.20.02708803611.4443.725-0.5750.5750.0129796840.330625744.443.55-0.850.850.01914414410.722543.725-0.6750.6750.01520270270.45562543.9-0.50.50.01126126130.25844.844.35-0.450.450.01004464290.202543.725-1.0751.0750.02399553571.15562543.9333333333-0.86666666670.86666666670.01934523810.7511111111944.444.60.20.20.00450450450.0444.075-0.3250.3250.00731981980.10562544.0166666667-0.38333333330.38333333330.00863363360.14694444441043.144.61.51.50.03480278422.2544.4751.3751.3750.03190255221.89062544.01666666670.91666666670.91666666670.02126836810.84027777781142.643.751.151.150.02699530521.322544.1751.5751.5750.0369718312.48062543.96666666671.36666666671.36666666670.03208137721.86777777781242.442.850.450.450.01061320750.202543.7251.3251.3250.031251.75562543.93333333331.53333333331.53333333330.0361635222.35111111111342.242.50.30.30.00710900470.0943.1250.9250.9250.02191943130.85562543.61666666671.41666666671.41666666670.03357030022.00694444441441.842.30.50.50.01196172250.2542.5750.7750.7750.01854066990.60062543.251.451.450.03468899522.10251540.1421.91.90.04738154613.6142.252.152.150.05361596014.622542.752.652.650.0660847887.0225164240.95-1.051.050.0251.102541.625-0.3750.3750.00892857140.14062542.03333333330.03333333330.03333333330.00079365080.00111111111742.441.05-1.351.350.03183962261.822541.525-0.8750.8750.02063679250.76562541.85-0.550.550.01297169810.30251843.142.2-0.90.90.02088167050.8141.575-1.5251.5250.03538283062.32562541.8166666667-1.28333333331.28333333330.02977571541.64694444441942.442.750.350.350.0082547170.122541.9-0.50.50.01179245280.2541.9333333333-0.46666666670.46666666670.01100628930.21777777782043.142.75-0.350.350.00812064970.122542.475-0.6250.6250.01450116010.39062541.9666666667-1.13333333331.13333333330.0262954371.28444444442143.242.75-0.450.450.01041666670.202542.75-0.450.450.01041666670.202542.1833333333-1.01666666671.01666666670.02353395061.03361111112242.843.150.350.350.00817757010.122542.950.150.150.00350467290.022542.7-0.10.10.00233644860.01234343000042.875-0.1250.1250.00290697670.01562542.8333333333-0.16666666670.16666666670.0038759690.02777777782442.842.90.10.10.00233644860.0143.0250.2250.2250.00525700930.05062542.93333333330.13333333330.13333333330.00311526480.01777777782542.542.90.40.40.00941176470.1642.950.450.450.01058823530.202542.88333333330.38333333330.38333333330.00901960780.14694444442642.642.650.050.050.00117370890.002542.7750.1750.1750.00410798120.03062542.90.30.30.00704225350.092742.342.550.250.250.00591016550.062542.7250.4250.4250.01004728130.18062542.81666666670.51666666670.51666666670.0122143420.26694444442842.942.45-0.450.450.01048951050.202542.55-0.350.350.00815850820.122542.6666666667-0.23333333330.23333333330.00543900540.05444444442943.642.6-110.0229357798142.575-1.0251.0250.02350917431.05062542.6833333333-0.91666666670.91666666670.02102446480.84027777783044.743.25-1.451.450.03243847872.102542.85-1.851.850.04138702463.422542.7833333333-1.91666666671.91666666670.04287844893.67361111113144.544.15-0.350.350.00786516850.122543.375-1.1251.1250.02528089891.26562543.1-1.41.40.03146067421.96324544.6-0.40.40.00888888890.1643.925-1.0751.0750.02388888891.15562543.4333333333-1.56666666671.56666666670.03481481482.45444444443344.844.75-0.050.050.00111607140.002544.45-0.350.350.00781250.122543.8333333333-0.96666666670.96666666670.0215773810.93444444443444.944.9000044.75-0.150.150.00334075720.022544.25-0.650.650.01447661470.42253545.244.85-0.350.350.00774336280.122544.8-0.40.40.00884955750.1644.5833333333-0.61666666670.61666666670.01364306780.38027777783645.245.05-0.150.150.00331858410.022544.975-0.2250.2250.00497787610.05062544.85-0.350.350.00774336280.1225374545.20.20.20.00444444440.0445.0250.0250.0250.00055555560.00062544.9333333333-0.06666666670.06666666670.00148148150.00444444443845.545.1-0.40.40.00879120880.1645.075-0.4250.4250.00934065930.18062545.0166666667-0.48333333330.48333333330.01062271060.23361111113946.245.25-0.950.950.02056277060.902545.225-0.9750.9750.02110389610.95062545.1-1.11.10.02380952381.214046.845.85-0.950.950.02029914530.902545.475-1.3251.3250.02831196581.75562545.3333333333-1.46666666671.46666666670.03133903132.15111111114147.546.5-110.0210526316145.875-1.6251.6250.03421052632.64062545.65-1.851.850.03894736843.42254248.347.15-1.151.150.02380952381.322546.5-1.81.80.03726708073.2446.0333333333-2.26666666672.26666666670.04692891655.13777777784348.347.9-0.40.40.00828157350.1647.2-1.11.10.02277432711.2146.55-1.751.750.03623188413.06254449.148.3-0.80.80.0162932790.6447.725-1.3751.3750.02800407331.89062547.1-220.040733197644548.948.7-0.20.20.00408997960.0448.3-0.60.60.01226993870.3647.7-1.21.20.02453987731.444649.449-0.40.40.0080971660.1648.65-0.750.750.01518218620.562548.15-1.251.250.02530364371.5625475049.15-0.850.850.0170.722548.925-1.0751.0750.02151.15562548.5833333333-1.41666666671.41666666670.02833333332.0069444444485049.7-0.30.30.0060.0949.35-0.650.650.0130.422549-110.0214949.6500.40.40.00806451610.1649.575-0.0250.0250.00050403230.00062549.2833333333-0.31666666670.31666666670.00638440860.10027777785049.949.8-0.10.10.0020040080.0149.75-0.150.150.0030060120.022549.5-0.40.40.00801603210.165149.649.750.150.150.00302419350.022549.8750.2750.2750.00554435480.07562549.63333333330.03333333330.03333333330.0006720430.00111111115250.749.75-0.950.950.01873767260.902549.775-0.9250.9250.01824457590.85562549.75-0.950.950.01873767260.90255350.750.15-0.550.550.01084812620.302549.95-0.750.750.01479289940.562549.9666666667-0.73333333330.73333333330.01446416830.53777777785450.950.7-0.20.20.00392927310.0450.225-0.6750.6750.01326129670.45562550.0833333333-0.81666666670.81666666670.01604453180.66694444445550.550.80.30.30.00594059410.0950.475-0.0250.0250.00049504950.00062550.2333333333-0.26666666670.26666666670.00528052810.07111111115651.250.7-0.50.50.0097656250.2550.7-0.50.50.0097656250.2550.3833333333-0.81666666670.81666666670.01595052080.66694444445750.750.850.150.150.00295857990.022550.8250.1250.1250.00246548320.01562550.6-0.10.10.00197238660.015850.350.950.650.650.01292246520.422550.8250.5250.5250.01043737570.27562550.78333333330.48333333330.48333333330.00960901260.23361111115949.250.51.31.30.02642276421.6950.6751.4751.4750.02997967482.17562550.71666666671.51666666671.51666666670.03082655832.30027777786048.149.751.651.650.03430353432.722550.352.252.250.04677754685.062550.46666666672.36666666672.36666666670.04920304925.6011111111-6.3350.774575515733.315-12.92543.9250.967557858351.950625-20.233333333350.43333333331.103567825169.7105555556n=58n=56n=54ME-0.1086206897ME-0.2308035714ME-0.374691358MAD0.6034482759MAD0.784375MAD0.9339506173MAPE1.3354750271MAPE1.7277818898MAPE2.0436441206MSE0.5743965517MSE0.9276897321MSE1.290936214Desviacion Estandar0.7578895379Desviacion Estandar0.9631665132Desviacion Estandar1.13619373960.75431034480.980468751.1674382716

Analisis Promedio Movil Simple

COMERCIOn=2n=4n=6ANALISISn=585654Los datos nos muestran que entre mayor sea el rango de n mayor numero de unidaddes de error podemos presentar y el MAPE nos muestra que si escogemos un n=2 tenemos un porcentaje de error de 1,88% contra un 2,69% de error si escogemos un n=6; adicional si escogemos un n=6 tendremos un alejamiento de nuestra media de 10,35, mientras que si escogemos un n=2 una desviacion de nuestra media de 8,28.ME-1.97-3.18-4.24MAD6.578.699.55MAPE1.882.472.69MSE68.6197.64107.21

Desviacion Estandar8.289.8810.358.2110.8611.94

ALIMENTOSn=2n=4n=6ALIMENTOSn=585654El analisis de los errores de pronostico nos india que lo mejor seria guiarnos por n=2 debido a que tiene su MAD mas bajita, lo que nos indica que vamos atener un menor numero de error de 4,44 unidades de alimento y vamos a tener una menor desviacion de nuestros datos con respecto a la media.ME-0.1413793103-0.4084821429-0.6802469136MAD4.44310344836.31919642867.0283950617MAPE7.22926598610.351928758611.5629734838MSE34.327327586258.739542410769.1233333333


METALESN=2N=4N=6METALESn=585654Con los datos que nos arojan lo errores de pronostico podemos decucir que entre menor numero de rango que en este caso seria n=2 un menor porcentaje de error al igual que un menor numero de unidades error de aproximadamente 1,33 y una menor desviacion de los datos con respecto a la media.ME-0.1086206897-0.2308035714-0.374691358MAD0.60344827590.7843750.9339506173MAPE1.33547502711.72778188982.0436441206MSE0.57439655170.92768973211.290936214


Promedio Movil PonderadoCOMERCIO n=2COMERCIO n=3COMERCIO n=5MesComercion=2ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=3ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=5ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2132223173319318.00-110.0014323318.60-4.44.40.0119.36319-440.01165327322.20-4.84.80.0123.04320.6-6.46.40.0240.966328326.20-1.81.80.013.24324.2-3.83.80.0114.44323.15-4.854.850.0123.527325327.802.82.80.017.84326.71.71.70.012.89325.30.30.30.000.098326325.60-0.40.40.000.16326.30.30.30.000.09325.65-0.350.350.000.129330325.80-4.24.20.0117.64326.1-3.93.90.0115.21326.1-3.93.90.0115.2110334329.20-4.84.80.0123.04327.8-6.26.20.0238.44327.65-6.356.350.0240.3211337333.20-3.83.80.0114.44331.2-5.85.80.0233.64330.2-6.86.80.0246.2412341336.40-4.64.60.0121.16334.7-6.36.30.0239.69333.15-7.857.850.0261.6213322340.2018.218.20.06331.24338.416.416.40.05268.96336.7514.7514.750.05217.5614318325.807.87.80.0260.84330.712.712.70.04161.29331.3513.3513.350.04178.2215320318.80-1.21.20.001.44323.83.83.80.0114.44326.36.36.30.0239.6916326319.60-6.46.40.0240.96319.8-6.26.20.0238.44322.85-3.153.150.019.9217332324.80-7.27.20.0251.84322.6-9.49.40.0388.36323.25-8.758.750.0376.5618334330.80-3.23.20.0110.24327.8-6.26.20.0238.44326.2-7.87.80.0260.8419335333.60-1.41.40.001.96331.8-3.23.20.0110.24329.7-5.35.30.0228.0920336334.80-1.21.20.001.44334.1-1.91.90.013.61332.5-3.53.50.0112.2521335335.800.80.80.000.64335.30.30.30.000.09334.45-0.550.550.000.3022338335.20-2.82.80.017.84335.3-2.72.70.017.29335-330.019.0023342337.40-4.64.60.0121.16336.7-5.35.30.0228.09336.35-5.655.650.0231.9224348341.20-6.86.80.0246.24339.4-8.68.60.0273.96338.65-9.359.350.0387.4225330346.8016.816.80.05282.24344.214.214.20.04201.64342.612.612.60.04158.7626326333.607.67.60.0257.76337.811.811.80.04139.24337.9511.9511.950.04142.8027329326.80-2.22.20.014.84331.62.62.60.016.76333.64.64.60.0121.1628337328.40-8.68.60.0373.96328.3-8.78.70.0375.69331-660.0236.0029345335.40-9.69.60.0392.16332.4-12.612.60.04158.76332.65-12.3512.350.04152.5230350343.40-6.66.60.0243.56339.4-10.610.60.03112.36337.15-12.8512.850.04165.1231351349.00-220.014345.9-5.15.10.0126.01342.85-8.158.150.0266.4232354350.80-3.23.20.0110.24349.5-4.54.50.0120.25347.05-6.956.950.0248.3033355353.40-1.61.60.002.56352.3-2.72.70.017.29350.7-4.34.30.0118.4934357354.80-2.22.20.014.84353.9-3.13.10.019.61352.95-4.054.050.0116.4035362356.60-5.45.40.0129.16355.8-6.26.20.0238.44354.95-7.057.050.0249.7036368361.00-770.0249359.1-8.98.90.0279.21358-10100.03100.0037348366.8018.818.80.05353.4436416160.05256362.314.314.30.04204.4938345352.00770.0249356.811.811.80.03139.24357.0512.0512.050.03145.2039349345.60-3.43.40.0111.56350.51.51.50.002.25352.653.653.650.0113.3240355348.20-6.86.80.0246.24347.6-7.47.40.0254.76350.35-4.654.650.0121.6241362353.80-8.28.20.0267.24351.2-10.810.80.03116.64351.45-10.5510.550.03111.3042367360.60-6.46.40.0240.96357.3-9.79.70.0394.09355.25-11.7511.750.03138.0643366366.00000.000363.1-2.92.90.018.41360.45-5.555.550.0230.8044370366.20-3.83.80.0114.44365.5-4.54.50.0120.25363.5-6.56.50.0242.2545371369.20-1.81.80.003.24368.2-2.82.80.017.84366.85-4.154.150.0117.2246375370.80-4.24.20.0117.64369.7-5.35.30.0128.09368.9-6.16.10.0237.2147380374.20-5.85.80.0233.64372.8-7.27.20.0251.84371.7-8.38.30.0268.8948385379.00-660.0236376.7-8.38.30.0268.89375.25-9.759.750.0395.0649361384.0023230.06529381.520.520.50.06420.25379.618.618.60.05345.9650354365.8011.811.80.03139.2437218180.05324372.718.718.70.05349.6951357355.40-1.61.60.002.56362.35.35.30.0128.09365.68.68.60.0273.9652367356.40-10.610.60.03112.36356.9-10.110.10.03102.01361-660.0236.0053376365.00-11110.03121361.4-14.614.60.04213.16362.2-13.813.80.04190.4454381374.20-6.86.80.0246.24369.5-11.511.50.03132.25367-14140.04196.0055381380.00-110.001376.7-4.34.30.0118.49373.2-7.87.80.0260.8456383381.00-220.014380-330.019377.4-5.65.60.0131.3657384382.60-1.41.40.001.96382-220.014380.6-3.43.40.0111.5658387383.80-3.23.20.0110.24383.1-3.93.90.0115.21382.45-4.554.550.0120.7059392386.40-5.65.60.0131.36385.3-6.76.70.0244.89384.55-7.457.450.0255.5060396391.00-550.0125388.9-7.17.10.0250.41387.7-8.38.30.0268.89Total-93322.20.923058.44Total-127.5401.31.154019.89Total-147.3426.81.214280.95

n=58n=57n=55

ME-1.60ME-2.24ME-2.68MAD5.56MAD7.04MAD7.76MAPE1.59MAPE2.01MAPE2.2020%MSE52.7320%MSE70.525%MSE77.8480%30%10%Desviacion Estandar7.2650%Desviacion Estandar8.4020%Desviacion Estandar8.826.948.8025%9.7040%

ALIMENTOS n=2ALIMENTOS n=3ALIMENTOS n=5MesAlimentosn=2ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=3ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=5ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2153.5253353.253.1-0.10.10.00187969920.01452.553.160.660.660.01257142860.435653.20.70.70.01333333330.49553.452.64-0.760.760.01423220970.577652.81-0.590.590.01104868910.3481656.553.22-3.283.280.058053097310.758453.09-3.413.410.060353982311.628153.1-3.43.40.060176991211.56765.355.88-9.429.420.144257274188.736454.77-10.5310.530.1612557427110.880954.42-10.8810.880.1666156202118.3744870.763.54-7.167.160.101272984451.265660.28-10.4210.420.1473833098108.576458.835-11.86511.8650.1678217822140.778225966.969.622.722.720.04065769817.398466.24-0.660.660.00986547090.435663.87-3.033.030.04529147989.18091058.267.669.469.460.162542955389.491667.729.529.520.163573883290.630465.8157.6157.6150.130841924457.9882251155.359.944.644.640.083905967521.529663.318.018.010.144846292964.160163.58.28.20.148282097667.241253.455.882.482.480.04644194766.150458.495.095.090.095318352125.908160.3856.9856.9850.130805243448.7902251352.153.781.681.680.03224568142.822454.932.832.830.0543186188.008957.054.954.950.095009596924.50251451.552.360.860.860.01669902910.739653.131.631.630.03165048542.656954.4152.9152.9150.05660194178.4972251551.551.620.120.120.00233009710.014452.060.560.560.01087378640.313652.7451.2451.2450.02417475731.5500251652.451.5-0.90.90.01717557250.8151.62-0.780.780.01488549620.608452-0.40.40.00763358780.161753.352.22-1.081.080.02026266421.166451.95-1.351.350.02532833021.822552.015-1.2851.2850.0241088181.6512251855.553.12-2.382.380.04288288295.664452.67-2.832.830.0509909918.008952.475-3.0253.0250.05450450459.1506251964.255.06-9.149.140.142367601283.539654.22-9.989.980.155451713499.600453.73-10.4710.470.1630841121109.62092069.662.46-7.147.140.102586206950.979659.41-10.1910.190.146408046103.836158.03-11.5711.570.1662356322133.86492169.368.52-0.780.780.01125541130.608465.16-4.144.140.059740259717.139662.94-6.366.360.091774891840.44962258.569.3610.8610.860.1856410256117.939668.379.879.870.168717948797.416966.1757.6757.6750.131196581258.9056252355.360.665.365.360.09692585928.729663.968.668.660.156600361774.995663.848.548.540.154430379772.93162453.655.942.342.340.04365671645.475659.065.465.460.101865671629.811660.7757.1757.1750.133861940351.4806252552.353.941.641.640.03135755262.689655.092.792.790.05334608037.784157.3755.0755.0750.097036328925.7556252651.552.561.061.060.02058252431.123653.291.791.790.03475728163.204154.6953.1953.1950.06203883510.2080252751.751.66-0.040.040.00077369440.001652.160.460.460.00889748550.211652.851.151.150.02224371371.32252851.551.660.160.160.00310679610.025651.760.260.260.00504854370.067652.140.640.640.01242718450.40962952.251.54-0.660.660.01264367820.435651.56-0.640.640.01226053640.409651.735-0.4650.4650.0089080460.2162253057.152.06-5.045.040.088266199625.401651.89-5.215.210.091243432627.144151.86-5.245.240.091768826627.45763163.656.12-7.487.480.117610062955.950454.51-9.099.090.142924528382.628153.935-9.6659.6650.151965408893.4122253268.862.3-6.56.50.094476744242.2559.37-9.439.430.137063953588.924957.89-10.9110.910.1585755814119.02813368.967.76-1.141.140.01654571841.299664.9-440.05805515241662.635-6.2656.2650.090928882439.2502253460.168.888.788.780.146089850277.088467.817.717.710.128286189759.444165.85.75.70.094841930132.493555.661.866.266.260.112589928139.187664.488.888.880.159712230278.854464.248.648.640.155395683574.64963653.956.52.62.60.04823747686.7659.615.715.710.105936920232.604161.1057.2057.2050.133673469451.9120253753.354.240.940.940.01763602250.883655.652.352.350.04409005635.522557.814.514.510.084615384620.34013853.153.420.320.320.00602636530.102453.940.840.840.0158192090.705655.372.272.270.04274952925.15293953.553.14-0.360.360.0067289720.129653.32-0.180.180.0033644860.032453.910.410.410.00766355140.16814053.553.42-0.080.080.00149532710.006453.34-0.160.160.00299065420.025653.5050.0050.0050.00009345790.0000254153.953.5-0.40.40.00742115030.1653.42-0.480.480.00890538030.230453.42-0.480.480.00890538030.23044257.153.82-3.283.280.057443082310.758453.7-3.43.40.059544658511.5653.61-3.493.490.061120840612.18014364.756.46-8.248.240.127357032567.897655.42-9.289.280.14343122186.118455.02-9.689.680.149613601293.70244469.463.18-6.226.220.089625360238.688460.26-9.149.140.131700288283.539658.96-10.4410.440.1504322767108.99364570.368.46-1.841.840.0261735423.385665.53-4.774.770.067852062622.752963.42-6.886.880.097866287347.33444662.670.127.527.520.120127795556.550468.916.316.310.10079872239.816166.8154.2154.2150.067332268417.7662254757.964.146.246.240.107772020738.937666.278.378.370.144559585570.056965.827.927.920.136787564862.72644855.858.843.043.040.05448028679.241661.795.995.990.107347670335.880163.0457.2457.2450.129838709752.4900254954.856.221.421.420.02591240882.016457.792.992.990.05456204388.940159.8155.0155.0150.091514598525.1502255054.2550.80.80.01476014760.6455.721.521.520.02804428042.310457.2253.0253.0250.05581180819.1506255154.654.32-0.280.280.00512820510.078454.70.10.10.00183150180.0155.460.860.860.01575091580.73965254.354.520.220.220.00405156540.048454.520.220.220.00405156540.048454.8250.5250.5250.00966850830.2756255354.854.36-0.440.440.00802919710.193654.37-0.430.430.00784671530.184954.48-0.320.320.00583941610.10245458.154.7-3.43.40.058519793511.5654.61-3.493.490.060068846812.180154.575-3.5253.5250.060671256512.4256255568.157.44-10.6610.660.1565345081113.635656.35-11.7511.750.1725403818138.062555.97-12.1312.130.1781204112147.13695673.366.1-7.27.20.098226466651.8462.44-10.8610.860.1481582538117.939660.885-12.41512.4150.169372442154.1322255775.572.26-3.243.240.042913907310.497668.7-6.86.80.090066225246.2466.16-9.349.340.123708609387.23565866.475.068.668.660.130421686774.995673.366.966.960.104819277148.441670.6954.2954.2950.064683734918.4470255960.568.227.727.720.127603305859.598470.5110.0110.010.1654545455100.200169.819.319.310.153884297586.67616057.761.683.983.980.068977469715.840465.277.577.570.131195840657.304966.6358.9358.9350.154852686379.834225Total-6.1211.183.43548985391394.7428Total-10.83277.154.52038657032142.6569Total-18.085308.9755.05315330932485.179425

n=58n=57n=55


METALES n=2METALES n=3METALES n=5MesMetalesn=2ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=3ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2n=5ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2144.2244.3344.444.28-0.120.120.00270270270.0144443.444.380.980.980.02258064520.960444.330.930.930.02142857140.8649542.843.60.80.80.01869158880.6443.881.081.080.02523364491.1664644.342.92-1.381.380.03115124151.904443.3-110.0225733634143.49-0.810.810.01828442440.6561744.444-0.40.40.0090090090.1643.67-0.730.730.01644144140.532943.755-0.6450.6450.0145270270.416025844.844.38-0.420.420.0093750.176444.05-0.750.750.01674107140.562543.955-0.8450.8450.01886160710.714025944.444.720.320.320.00720720720.102444.580.180.180.00405405410.032444.33-0.070.070.00157657660.00491043.144.481.381.380.03201856151.904444.521.421.420.03294663572.016444.411.311.310.03039443161.71611142.643.360.760.760.01784037560.577643.831.231.230.02887323941.512943.9551.3551.3550.03180751171.8360251242.442.70.30.30.00707547170.0943.110.710.710.0167452830.504143.3950.9950.9950.02346698110.9900251342.242.440.240.240.00568720380.057642.60.40.40.0094786730.1642.910.710.710.01682464450.50411441.842.240.440.440.01052631580.193642.340.540.540.01291866030.291642.530.730.730.01746411480.53291540.141.881.781.780.04438902743.168442.041.941.940.04837905243.763642.1652.0652.0650.05149625944.264225164240.44-1.561.560.03714285712.433641.03-0.970.970.02309523810.940941.3-0.70.70.01666666670.491742.441.62-0.780.780.01839622640.608441.39-1.011.010.02382075471.020141.525-0.8750.8750.02063679250.7656251843.142.32-0.780.780.01809744780.608441.82-1.281.280.02969837591.638441.77-1.331.330.03085846871.76891942.442.960.560.560.01320754720.313642.670.270.270.00636792450.072942.34-0.060.060.00141509430.00362043.142.54-0.560.560.01299303940.313642.61-0.490.490.01136890950.240142.42-0.680.680.01577726220.46242143.242.96-0.240.240.00555555560.057642.89-0.310.310.00717592590.096142.8-0.40.40.00925925930.162242.843.180.380.380.00887850470.144443.010.210.210.00490654210.044142.9650.1650.1650.00385514020.027225234342.88-0.120.120.00279069770.014442.98-0.020.020.00046511630.000442.935-0.0650.0650.00151162790.0042252442.842.960.160.160.00373831780.025642.980.180.180.00420560750.032442.970.170.170.00397196260.02892542.542.840.340.340.0080.115642.860.360.360.00847058820.129642.9050.4050.4050.00952941180.1640252642.642.56-0.040.040.00093896710.001642.690.090.090.00211267610.008142.740.140.140.0032863850.01962742.342.580.280.280.00661938530.078442.610.310.310.00732860520.096142.6650.3650.3650.00862884160.1332252842.942.36-0.540.540.01258741260.291642.43-0.470.470.0109557110.220942.5-0.40.40.00932400930.162943.642.78-0.820.820.01880733940.672442.66-0.940.940.0215596330.883642.645-0.9550.9550.02190366970.9120253044.743.46-1.241.240.02774049221.537643.13-1.571.570.03512304252.464943.01-1.691.690.03780760632.85613144.544.48-0.020.020.00044943820.000444.01-0.490.490.0110112360.240143.72-0.780.780.01752808990.6084324544.54-0.460.460.01022222220.211644.38-0.620.620.01377777780.384444.1-0.90.90.020.813344.844.90.10.10.00223214290.0144.79-0.010.010.00022321430.000144.57-0.230.230.00513392860.05293444.944.84-0.060.060.00133630290.003644.8-0.10.10.00222717150.0144.72-0.180.180.00400890870.03243545.244.88-0.320.320.0070796460.102444.89-0.310.310.00685840710.096144.845-0.3550.3550.00785398230.1260253645.245.14-0.060.060.00132743360.003645.03-0.170.170.00376106190.028944.99-0.210.210.00464601770.0441374545.20.20.20.00444444440.0445.140.140.140.00311111110.019645.090.090.090.0020.00813845.545.04-0.460.460.01010989010.211645.1-0.40.40.00879120880.1645.07-0.430.430.00945054950.18493946.245.4-0.80.80.01731601730.6445.29-0.910.910.01969696970.828145.255-0.9450.9450.02045454550.8930254046.846.06-0.740.740.01581196580.547645.75-1.051.050.02243589741.102545.635-1.1651.1650.02489316241.3572254147.546.68-0.820.820.01726315790.672446.36-1.141.140.0241.299646.13-1.371.370.02884210531.87694248.347.36-0.940.940.01946169770.883647.03-1.271.270.02629399591.612946.74-1.561.560.03229813662.43364348.348.14-0.160.160.00331262940.025647.76-0.540.540.01118012420.291647.45-0.850.850.01759834370.72254449.148.3-0.80.80.0162932790.6448.14-0.960.960.01955193480.921647.885-1.2151.2150.02474541751.4762254548.948.940.040.040.00081799590.001648.7-0.20.20.00408997960.0448.465-0.4350.4350.00889570550.1892254649.448.94-0.460.460.00931174090.211648.84-0.560.560.01133603240.313648.7-0.70.70.01417004050.49475049.3-0.70.70.0140.4949.19-0.810.810.01620.656149.05-0.950.950.0190.9025485049.88-0.120.120.00240.014449.6-0.40.40.0080.1649.455-0.5450.5450.01090.2970254949.6500.40.40.00806451610.1649.880.280.280.00564516130.078449.7250.1250.1250.00252016130.0156255049.949.68-0.220.220.00440881760.048449.8-0.10.10.0020040080.0149.725-0.1750.1750.0035070140.0306255149.649.840.240.240.00483870970.057649.830.230.230.00463709680.052949.830.230.230.00463709680.05295250.749.66-1.041.040.02051282051.081649.69-1.011.010.01992110451.020149.735-0.9650.9650.01903353060.9312255350.750.48-0.220.220.00433925050.048450.21-0.490.490.00966469430.240150.12-0.580.580.01143984220.33645450.950.7-0.20.20.00392927310.0450.48-0.420.420.00825147350.176450.345-0.5550.5550.01090373280.3080255550.550.860.360.360.00712871290.129650.80.30.30.00594059410.0950.630.130.130.00257425740.01695651.250.58-0.620.620.0121093750.384450.66-0.540.540.0105468750.291650.615-0.5850.5850.01142578120.3422255750.751.060.360.360.00710059170.129650.930.230.230.00453648920.052950.890.190.190.00374753450.03615850.350.80.50.50.00994035790.2550.810.510.510.0101391650.260150.8050.5050.5050.01003976140.2550255949.250.381.181.180.02398373981.392450.61.41.40.02845528461.9650.631.431.430.02906504072.04496048.149.421.321.320.02744282741.742449.831.731.730.0359667362.992950.041.941.940.04033264033.7636Total-4.831.640.700737137127.3408Total-7.3736.710.810723145535.6869Total-12.15538.2550.840781103140.228875

n=58n=57n=55


Analisis Promedio Movil Pondera

COMERCIOn=2n=3n=5ANALISISn=585755Con respecto a cada uno de los casos de n=n podemos ver que es mejor trabajar con un n bajo como en este caso n=2 donde nos presentr el menor mad lo que representa que tendremos un menor numero de errores en unidades y un menor error de porcentaje segn nos indica el MAPEME-1.60-2.24-2.68MAD5.567.047.76MAPE1.592.012.20MSE52.7370.5277.84

Desviacion Estandar7.268.408.826.948.809.7020%20%5%80%30%10%50%20%25%40%

ALIMENTOSn=2n=3n=5ANALISISn=585755Segn los datos en este ejercicio el n=2 nos mustra que desde el n=2 a el n= 5 tenemos en todos los casos una desviacion de casi dos unidades lo que nos inidca que es mejor trabajar con n=2 , al igual que en el porcentaje de error que en n=2 es casi a mitad que nos refleja en n=5, ME-0.1051724138-0.19-0.3288181818MAD3.64103448284.86228070185.6177272727MAPE5.92325836897.9305027559.1875514714MSE24.047289655237.590471929845.1850804545


METALESn=2n=3n=5ANALISISn=585755A pesar de que en estos datos estan bastante estrechos en cuanto al MAPE es mejor trabajar con n=2 que nos determina un menor porcentaje de error en el pronostico que no con n=5, aunque por el tipo de metodo que no pronostica muy bien las tendencias de los periodos venideros, seria ir por el n=2 que no nos aleja tanto de nuestra desviacion con respecto a la mediaME-0.0827586207-0.1292982456-0.221MAD0.54551724140.64403508770.6955454545MAPE1.20816747771.42232130781.5286929147MSE0.47139310340.62608596490.7314340909


Analisis final PromediosSIMPLEPONDERADOn=2n=2n=5858ME-1.97-1.60AnalisisMAD6.575.56Teniendo en cuenta que en general es mejor hacer los ejercicios con n=2, en la mayoria de los casos el promedio movil ponderado nos va a generar un menor MAPE o menor porcentaje de riesgo con respecto al promedio movil simple aunque, el promedio movil por su caracteristica de no generar mu buenos pronosticos es que nos acerca mas a nuestra media.MAPE1.881.59MSE68.6152.73

Desviacion Estandar8.287.268.216.94

n=2n=2n=5858ME-0.1413793103-0.1051724138MAD4.44310344833.6410344828MAPE7.2292659865.9232583689MSE34.327327586224.0472896552


N=2n=2n=5858ME-0.1086206897-0.0827586207MAD0.60344827590.5455172414MAPE1.33547502711.2081674777MSE0.57439655170.4713931034


Suavizacion ExponencialCOMERCIO = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)COMERCIO = 0,5 =0,6(suavizacion exponencial doble)MesComercio0.50ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2FtTtFITtErrorError ABSError ABS/ DtError^21322315.00-7.007.000.0249.00315.0034349.0027.0044.400.138729.002317318.501.501.500.002.25335.5025.90361.4044.4032.780.1031971.363319317.75-1.251.250.001.56339.2012.58351.7832.7815.140.0471074.534323318.38-4.634.630.0121.39335.392.75338.1415.141.770.005229.105327320.69-6.316.310.0239.85330.57-1.79328.771.772.440.0073.146328323.84-4.164.160.0117.27327.89-2.33325.56-2.440.190.0015.957325325.920.920.920.000.85326.78-1.59325.190.192.560.0080.038326325.46-0.540.540.000.29325.09-1.65323.44-2.566.160.0196.549330325.73-4.274.270.0118.23324.72-0.88323.84-6.166.120.01937.9710334327.87-6.136.130.0237.64326.920.97327.88-6.123.260.01037.4011337330.93-6.076.070.0236.81330.942.80333.74-3.261.850.00510.6112341333.97-7.037.030.0249.47335.373.78339.15-1.8522.410.0663.4313322337.4815.4815.480.05239.73340.074.33344.4122.4112.810.040502.0814318329.7411.7411.740.04137.86333.20-2.39330.8112.811.830.006164.2015320323.873.873.870.0114.98324.41-6.23318.17-1.8312.600.0393.3416326321.94-4.064.060.0116.52319.09-5.69313.40-12.6014.210.044158.7317332323.97-8.038.030.0264.52319.70-1.91317.79-14.216.750.020201.7918334327.98-6.026.020.0236.19324.902.36327.25-6.750.010.00045.5219335330.99-4.014.010.0116.06330.634.38335.010.013.380.0100.0020336333.00-3.003.000.019.02335.004.38339.383.386.050.01811.4321335334.50-0.500.500.000.25337.693.36341.056.051.570.00536.6522338334.75-3.253.250.0110.57338.031.55339.571.572.140.0062.4823342336.37-5.635.630.0231.65338.791.08339.86-2.145.350.0164.5724348339.19-8.818.810.0377.66340.931.72342.65-5.3518.650.05428.6525330343.5913.5913.590.04184.79345.323.32348.6518.6511.050.033347.6726326336.8010.8010.800.03116.57339.32-2.27337.0511.053.060.009122.1327329331.402.402.400.015.75331.53-5.59325.94-3.0614.200.0439.3728337330.20-6.806.800.0246.25327.47-4.67322.80-14.2015.510.046201.6229345333.60-11.4011.400.03129.97329.90-0.41329.49-15.518.510.025240.5130350339.30-10.7010.700.03114.49337.254.24341.49-8.511.540.00472.4331351344.65-6.356.350.0240.32345.746.80352.541.544.110.0122.3832354347.82-6.186.180.0238.13351.776.33358.114.116.160.01716.8533355350.91-4.094.090.0116.71356.055.10361.166.164.330.01237.8934357352.96-4.044.040.0116.35358.083.26361.334.330.880.00218.7835362354.98-7.027.020.0249.31359.171.96361.12-0.884.220.0120.7736368358.49-9.519.510.0390.46361.562.22363.78-4.2221.380.05817.8037348363.2415.2415.240.04232.40365.893.48369.3821.3810.760.031456.9038345355.6210.6210.620.03112.83358.69-2.93355.7610.764.780.014115.7839349350.311.311.310.001.72350.38-6.16344.22-4.7813.110.03822.8140355349.66-5.345.340.0228.56346.61-4.72341.89-13.1114.350.040171.8941362352.33-9.679.670.0393.55348.44-0.79347.65-14.358.660.024205.7842367357.16-9.849.840.0396.75354.833.51358.34-8.662.780.00874.9743366362.08-3.923.920.0115.35362.676.11368.782.782.670.0077.7444370364.04-5.965.960.0235.51367.395.28372.672.674.810.0137.1245371367.02-3.983.980.0115.84371.334.48375.814.811.440.00423.1446375369.01-5.995.990.0235.88373.413.03376.441.441.680.0042.0747380372.01-7.997.990.0263.92375.722.60378.32-1.682.730.0072.8248385376.00-9.009.000.0280.95379.163.11382.27-2.7326.560.0697.4749361380.5019.5019.500.05380.30383.633.93387.5626.5616.240.045705.3650354370.7516.7516.750.05280.58374.28-4.04370.2416.243.790.011263.6551357362.385.385.380.0228.89362.12-8.91353.21-3.7919.670.05514.4052367359.69-7.317.310.0253.47355.10-7.77347.33-19.6720.710.056386.9953376363.34-12.6612.660.03160.18357.16-1.87355.29-20.7111.020.029428.8754381369.67-11.3311.330.03128.33365.654.34369.98-11.022.140.006121.3355381375.34-5.665.660.0132.08375.497.64383.142.146.070.0164.5656383378.17-4.834.830.0123.35382.077.00389.076.077.220.01936.8657384380.58-3.423.420.0111.67386.045.18391.227.223.630.00952.0958387382.29-4.714.710.0122.17387.613.02390.633.631.260.00313.1459392384.65-7.357.350.0254.08388.811.93390.74-1.262.320.0061.5860396388.32-7.687.680.0258.94391.372.31393.68-2.32103.320.2615.40Total-154.32412.551.183826.04Total103.32611.051.749489.46

n=60n=60

ME-2.57ME1.7220386777MAD6.88MAD10.1841846116MAPE1.96MAPE2.893063087MSE63.77alfabetaMSE158.15771626230.50.6alfa0.50Desviacion Estandar7.99Desviacion Estandar12.57607714128.5912.7302307645

ALIMENTOS = 0,5(suavizacion exponencial simple)ALIMENTOS = 0,5 =0,6(suavizacion exponencial doble)MesAlimentos0.5ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2FtTtFITtErrorError ABSError ABS/ DtError^2153.5551.51.50.02803738322.25555606.56.80.127102803742.2525354.251.251.250.02358490571.562556.753.0559.86.84.210.079433962346.24353.253.6250.4250.4250.00798872180.18062556.41.0157.414.212.5520.047969924817.7241452.553.41250.91250.91250.01738095240.8326562555.305-0.25355.0522.5520.64260.012246.512704553.452.95625-0.443750.443750.00830992510.196914062553.776-1.018652.7574-0.64264.247120.07953408240.41293476656.553.178125-3.3218753.3218750.058794247811.034853515653.0787-0.8258252.25288-4.2471210.4752440.185402548718.0380282944765.354.8390625-10.460937510.46093750.160198124109.431213378954.376440.44831654.824756-10.4752447.04673280.1079132129109.7307368595870.760.06953125-10.6304687510.630468750.1503602369113.006865844760.0623783.590889263.6532672-7.04673285.981542640.084604563549.6564431546966.965.384765625-1.5152343751.5152343750.02264924332.295935211267.17663365.7049090472.881542645.9815426415.6012175680.233202056335.77885235411058.266.14238281257.94238281257.94238281250.136467058663.081444740369.890771323.91044624873.80121756815.6012175689.93068976160.1706304083243.39798960411155.362.17119140626.87119140636.87119140630.124253009247.213271341366.000608784-0.769919022465.23068976169.93068976163.11621892990.056351156198.61859914111253.458.73559570315.33559570315.33559570310.099917522528.468581507260.2653448808-3.749125950956.51621892993.11621892991.82588216490.03419254999.71082041921352.156.06779785163.96779785163.96779785160.076157348415.743419790954.958109465-4.683991629950.2741178351-1.82588216494.44916806280.08539669993.33384568011451.554.08389892582.58389892582.58389892580.05017279476.676533658751.1870589176-4.136226980447.0508319372-4.44916806285.0260605930.097593409619.79509645141551.552.79194946291.29194946291.29194946290.02508639731.669133414749.2754159686-2.801476561546.473939407-5.0260605934.70668868010.091392013225.2612850841652.452.1459747314-0.25402526860.25402526860.00484781050.064528837148.9869697035-1.293658383747.6933113199-4.70668868013.13499611970.059828170222.15291833161753.352.2729873657-1.02701263431.02701263430.01926852971.05475495150.04665565990.118348220450.1650038803-3.13499611972.70865100350.05081896829.82820067041855.552.7864936829-2.71350631712.71350631710.04889200577.363116533251.73250194021.058847056352.7913489965-2.70865100358.18288314440.14743933597.3367902591964.254.1432468414-10.056753158610.05675315860.1566472455101.138284092454.14567449821.871442357456.0171168556-8.18288314445.16513427150.080453804966.95957655522069.659.1716234207-10.428376579310.42837657930.1498329968108.751038079460.10855842784.326307300764.4348657285-5.16513427153.59328044640.051627592626.67861204292169.364.3858117104-4.91418828964.91418828960.070911807924.149246546167.01743286425.875847582172.89328044643.593280446417.39450367140.25100293912.91166436632258.566.84290585528.34290585528.34290585520.142613775369.604078108471.09664022324.797863448275.894503671417.394503671411.47676418250.1961840031302.56875797482355.362.67145292767.37145292767.37145292760.133299329654.338318263767.1972518357-0.420487653266.776764182511.47676418253.57486518330.06464494131.71611610092453.658.98572646385.38572646385.38572646380.100479971329.006049542861.0383820913-3.86351690857.17486518333.57486518331.84854387130.034487758812.77966107882552.356.29286323193.99286323193.99286323190.076345377315.942956788655.3874325917-4.935976462950.4514561287-1.84854387134.50568523720.08615076943.41711444412651.554.29643161592.79643161592.79643161590.0542996437.820029782751.3757280644-4.381413301646.9943147628-4.50568523725.4825503490.106457288320.30119945672751.752.8982158081.1982158081.1982158080.02317632121.435721122549.2471573814-3.029707730446.217449651-5.4825503493.92621780020.075942317230.05835832932851.552.2991079040.7991079040.7991079040.01551665830.638573442248.9587248255-1.384942625747.5737821998-3.92621780022.87018618570.055731770615.41518621462952.251.899553952-0.3004460480.3004460480.00575567140.090267827849.5368910999-0.207077285649.3298138143-2.87018618575.68111452280.10883361158.23796874083057.152.049776976-5.0502230245.0502230240.088445236825.504752592250.76490690710.653978570151.4188854772-5.68111452286.98224433450.122280986632.2750622213163.654.574888488-9.0251115129.0251115120.141904269181.452637804154.25944273862.358312926956.6177556655-6.98224433454.238135940.066637357548.75173594633268.859.087444244-9.7125557569.7125557560.141170868594.333739313460.10887783284.452986227364.56186406-4.238135943.50535903930.05094998617.96179624573368.963.943722122-4.9562778784.9562778780.071934366924.56469040466.680932035.724427009372.40535903933.505359039315.22549881710.220979663512.28754199423460.166.4218610616.3218610616.3218610610.10518903639.965927274670.65267951964.672819297575.325498817115.225498817112.21791906090.2032931624231.81581422973555.663.26093053057.66093053057.66093053050.137786520358.689856593167.71274940860.105169652367.817919060912.21791906094.24875346450.0764164292149.27754617863653.959.43046526525.53046526525.53046526520.102606034630.586046050161.7089595304-3.560206065958.14875346454.24875346452.1104553730.039155016218.05190600233753.356.66523263263.36523263263.36523263260.063137572811.324790671756.0243767323-4.834832105351.189544627-2.1104553735.05692317990.09487660754.45402188153853.154.98261631631.88261631631.88261631630.03545416793.544244194452.2447723135-4.201695493448.0430768201-5.05692317995.61308012940.105707723725.57247204733953.554.04130815820.54130815820.54130815820.01011790950.293014522150.5715384101-2.684618539447.8869198706-5.61308012943.80723456530.071163262931.50666853854053.553.77065407910.27065407910.27065407910.00505895470.073253630550.6934599353-1.000694500649.6927654347-3.80723456532.16214141370.040413858214.49503503514153.953.6353270395-0.26467296050.26467296050.00491044450.07005177651.59638271740.14147586951.7378585863-2.16214141373.49095241380.06476720624.67485549274257.153.7676635198-3.33233648023.33233648020.058359658111.104466417552.81892929320.790118293153.6090475862-3.49095241387.50807218970.131489880712.18674875514364.755.4338317599-9.26616824019.26616824010.14321743885.861873854155.35452379311.837404017257.1919278103-7.50807218974.36421042070.067453020456.37114800534469.460.0669158799-9.33308412019.33308412010.134482480187.106459192160.94596390524.089825674165.0357895793-4.36421042072.316983590.033385930719.04633259644570.364.73345794-5.566542065.566542060.079182675130.986390506167.21789478965.399088800372.616983592.3169835913.56248551830.19292298035.36841295614662.667.516728974.916728974.916728970.078541996324.174223764371.4584917954.703993723376.162485518313.562485518312.1164908270.1935541666183.94101343454757.965.0583644857.1583644857.1583644850.123633238151.242182169.38124275920.635248067870.01649082712.1164908275.15854623320.0890940628146.80934996084855.861.47918224255.67918224255.67918224250.101777459532.253110943563.9582454135-2.999699180360.95854623325.15854623320.96798993360.017347489826.61059924054954.858.63959112123.83959112123.83959112120.070065531414.742459978458.3792731166-4.547263050253.8320100664-0.96798993364.1408610370.07556315760.93700451165054.256.71979556062.51979556062.51979556060.0464906936.349369667354.3160050332-4.256866070150.059138963-4.1408610375.48503827750.101199968217.14673012745154.655.45989778030.85989778030.85989778030.01574904360.739424192652.1295694815-3.014607759149.1149617225-5.48503827753.81161541460.069809806130.08564490615254.355.02994889020.72994889020.72994889020.01344288930.532825382251.8574808612-1.369096275850.4883845854-3.81161541462.63141935870.048460761714.52841206865354.854.6649744451-0.13502555490.13502555490.002463970.018231900552.3941922927-0.225611651452.1685806413-2.63141935874.05189552320.07393969936.92436784145458.154.7324872225-3.36751277753.36751277750.05796063311.340142306453.48429032060.563814156254.0481044768-4.051895523210.24656494840.176360842516.41785733075568.156.4162436113-11.683756388711.68375638870.1715676415136.510163351256.07405223841.779382813157.8534350516-10.24656494845.46993017660.080322029104.99209324285673.362.2581218056-11.041878194411.04187819440.1506395388121.923074059262.97671752584.853352297767.8300698234-5.46993017661.55936626240.021273755329.92013613645775.567.7790609028-7.72093909727.72093909720.10226409459.612900542470.56503491176.494331350677.05936626241.559366262415.90620460310.21067820672.43162314025866.471.63953045145.23953045145.23953045140.078908591127.452679351276.27968313126.026521471982.306204603115.906204603115.10776239260.2275265421253.0073448765960.569.01976522578.51976522578.51976522570.140822565772.586399501174.35310230161.25466009175.607762392615.10776239267.07621256950.1169621912228.24448450986057.764.75988261297.05988261297.05988261290.122354984649.841942507368.0538811963-3.277668626864.77621256957.076212569534.66844132540.600839537750.0727843288Total-12.4598826129280.58543331524.59088551782019.8222359771Total34.6684413254390.96532952196.547387953192.9901041493

n=60n=60

ME-0.2076647102ME0.5778073554MAD4.6764238886MAD6.5160888254MAPE7.651475863MAPE10.91231325MSE33.663703933alfabetaMSE53.21650173580.50.6Desviacion Estandar5.8020430827Desviacion Estandar7.29496413535.84552986078.1451110317

METALES = 0,5(suavizacion exponencial simple)METALES = 0,5 =0,6(suavizacion exponencial doble)MesMetales0.5ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2FtTtFITtErrorError ABSError ABS/ DtError^2144.241-3.23.20.0723981910.2441.004.545.501.304.660.1051.69244.342.6-1.71.70.03837471782.8944.854.1148.964.664.940.11221.72344.443.45-0.950.950.02139639640.902546.632.7149.344.944.700.10624.42443.443.9250.5250.5250.01209677420.27562546.871.2348.104.702.770.06422.09542.843.66250.86250.86250.02015186920.7439062545.75-0.1845.572.771.130.0267.67644.343.23125-1.068751.068750.02412528221.142226562544.18-1.0143.17-1.131.340.0301.27744.443.765625-0.6343750.6343750.01428772520.402431640643.74-0.6743.06-1.341.340.0301.79844.844.0828125-0.71718750.71718750.01600864960.514357910243.73-0.2743.46-1.340.140.0031.80944.444.441406250.041406250.041406250.00093257320.001714477544.130.1344.26-0.141.400.0320.021043.144.4207031251.3207031251.3207031250.03064276391.744256744444.330.1744.501.400.950.0221.961142.643.76035156251.16035156251.16035156250.02723829961.346415748643.80-0.2543.550.950.140.0030.911242.443.18017578120.78017578130.78017578130.01840037220.608674249643.08-0.5342.540.140.310.0070.021342.242.79008789060.59008789060.59008789060.01398312540.348203718742.47-0.5841.89-0.310.240.0060.091441.842.49504394530.69504394530.69504394530.01662784560.483086085942.05-0.4941.56-0.241.170.0280.061540.142.14752197272.04752197272.04752197270.05106039834.192346228541.68-0.4141.271.172.080.0521.36164241.1237609863-0.87623901370.87623901370.02086283370.767794809140.68-0.7639.92-2.081.580.0384.331742.441.5618804932-0.83811950680.83811950680.01976696950.702444307740.96-0.1440.82-1.581.160.0272.501843.141.9809402466-1.11905975341.11905975340.02596426341.252294731741.610.3341.94-1.160.800.0191.341942.442.54047012330.14047012330.14047012330.00331297460.019731855542.520.6843.200.800.140.0030.642043.142.4702350616-0.62976493840.62976493840.01461171550.396603877642.800.4443.240.140.370.0090.022143.242.7851175308-0.41488246920.41488246920.00960376090.172127463243.170.4043.570.370.870.0200.142242.842.99255876540.19255876540.19255876540.00449903660.037078878143.380.2943.670.870.260.0060.76234342.8962793827-0.10372061730.10372061730.00241210740.010757966543.240.0343.260.260.280.0060.072442.842.94813969140.14813969140.14813969140.00346120770.021945368243.13-0.0543.080.280.300.0070.082542.542.87406984570.37406984570.37406984570.00880164340.139928249442.94-0.1442.800.300.180.0040.092642.642.68703492280.08703492280.08703492280.00204307330.007575077842.65-0.2342.42-0.180.040.0010.032742.342.64351746140.34351746140.34351746140.00812098020.118004246342.51-0.1742.340.040.770.0180.002842.942.4717587307-0.42824126930.42824126930.0099823140.183390584742.32-0.1942.13-0.771.040.0240.592943.642.6858793654-0.91412063460.91412063460.02096606960.835616534742.520.0442.56-1.041.260.0291.083044.743.1429396827-1.55706031731.55706031730.03483356412.424436831843.080.3643.44-1.260.300.0071.603144.543.9214698413-0.57853015870.57853015870.01300067770.334697144544.070.7444.800.300.300.0070.09324544.2107349207-0.78926507930.78926507930.0175392240.622939365544.650.6445.300.300.900.0200.093344.844.6053674603-0.19463253970.19463253970.00434447630.037881825545.150.5645.700.900.640.0140.823444.944.7026837302-0.19731626980.19731626980.00439457170.038933710345.250.2845.540.640.110.0020.403545.244.8013418651-0.39865813490.39865813490.00881987020.158928308545.220.0945.310.110.120.0030.013645.245.0006709325-0.19932906750.19932906750.00440993510.039732077145.260.0645.320.120.280.0060.01374545.10033546630.10033546630.10033546630.0022296770.010067205845.260.0345.280.280.420.0090.083845.545.0501677331-0.44983226690.44983226690.00988642340.202349068345.14-0.0645.08-0.420.840.0190.173946.245.2750838666-0.92491613340.92491613340.02001982970.855469853945.290.0745.36-0.840.700.0150.714046.845.7375419333-1.06245806671.06245806670.02270209541.128817143545.780.3246.10-0.700.520.0110.494147.546.2687709666-1.23122903341.23122903340.02592061121.515924932646.450.5346.98-0.520.370.0080.274248.346.8843854833-1.41561451671.41561451670.02930878922.003964459847.240.6947.93-0.370.610.0130.144348.347.5921927417-0.70780725830.70780725830.01465439460.50099111548.110.8048.910.610.120.0030.374449.147.9460963708-1.15390362921.15390362920.02350109221.331493585448.610.6249.220.120.840.0170.014548.948.5230481854-0.37695181460.37695181460.00770862610.142092670549.160.5849.740.840.250.0050.704649.448.7115240927-0.68847590730.68847590730.01393675930.473999074949.320.3349.650.250.220.0050.06475049.0557620464-0.94423795360.94423795360.01888475910.891585313149.520.2549.78-0.220.210.0040.05485049.5278810232-0.47211897680.47211897680.00944237950.222896328349.890.3250.210.210.760.0150.044949.649.76394051160.16394051160.16394051160.00330525220.026876491350.100.2650.360.760.110.0020.585049.949.6819702558-0.21802974420.21802974420.00436933360.047536969449.980.0350.010.110.350.0070.015149.649.79098512790.19098512790.19098512790.00385050660.036475319149.95-0.0049.950.351.030.0210.125250.749.6954925639-1.00450743611.00450743610.01981276991.009035189149.78-0.1149.67-1.030.320.0061.075350.750.197746282-0.5022537180.5022537180.0099063850.252258797350.180.2050.38-0.320.060.0010.105450.950.448873141-0.4511268590.4511268590.00886300310.203515442950.540.3050.84-0.060.680.0130.005550.550.67443657050.17443657050.17443657050.00345418950.030428117150.870.3151.180.680.250.0050.475651.250.5872182852-0.61278171480.61278171480.01196839290.375501429950.840.1150.95-0.250.560.0110.065750.750.89360914260.19360914260.19360914260.00381872080.037484500151.080.1851.260.560.700.0140.315850.350.79680457130.49680457130.49680457130.00987683040.246814782150.980.0251.000.701.260.0250.485949.250.54840228571.34840228571.34840228570.02740655051.81818872450.65-0.1950.461.261.160.0241.586048.149.87420114281.77420114281.77420114280.03688567863.147789695249.83-0.5749.261.1618.060.3751.34Total-15.974201142843.47679345480.961189301750.6701440389Total18.0669.401.52110.80

n=60n=60

ME-0.2662366857ME0.3009312943MAD0.7246132242MAD1.1566931787MAPE1.6019821696MAPE2.5408123797MSE0.8445024006alfabetaMSE1.84671094480.50.6Desviacion Estandar0.9189681173Desviacion Estandar1.35893743230.90576653031.4458664734

Analisis Suavizacion Exponencia

COMERCIOsimpledobleANALISISn=6060A pesar de que los datos que maneja Comercio son claros y no demuestran ningun patron extrao y teniendo en cuenta los datos que nos arroja el MAD es de 6 a 10 con respecto del simple al doble, lo que quiere decir que el simple nos genera un cantidad de 6,88 unidades de error contra los 10,18 del doble, por lo cual seria mejor la suvaizacion simple y nos deja un menor porcentaje de error y mantiene una desvaicion inferior con respecto a la suavizacion doble.ME-2.571.7220386777MAD6.8810.1841846116MAPE1.962.893063087MSE63.77158.1577162623


alfa0.500.5betaN/A0.6

ALIMENTOSsimpledobleALIMENTOSn=6060Segn los datos que nos arrojan el MAD nos indica que vamos a trener una cantidd de 4,67 unidades de error contra 6,51 de la suavizacion doble, adicional la simple nos muestra un menor porcentaje de error.ME-0.20766471020.5778073554MAD4.67642388866.5160888254MAPE7.65147586310.91231325MSE33.66370393353.2165017358



METALESsimpledobleMETALESn=6060El MAPE nos demuestraen esta comparacion un menor porcentaje de error en la suavizacion simple que en la doble y un menor numero de unidades en el error (MAD).ME-0.26623668570.3009312943MAD0.72461322421.1566931787MAPE1.60198216962.5408123797MSE0.84450240061.8467109448



Solver

SOLVER PARA MAPECOMERCIO = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)MesComercio1.00ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 21322315.00-7.007.000.0249.002317322.005.005.000.0225.003319317.00-2.002.000.014.004323319.00-4.004.000.0116.005327323.00-4.004.000.0116.006328327.00-1.001.000.001.007325328.003.003.000.019.008326325.00-1.001.000.001.009330326.00-4.004.000.0116.0010334330.00-4.004.000.0116.0011337334.00-3.003.000.019.0012341337.00-4.004.000.0116.0013322341.0019.0019.000.06361.0014318322.004.004.000.0116.0015320318.00-2.002.000.014.0016326320.00-6.006.000.0236.0017332326.00-6.006.000.0236.0018334332.00-2.002.000.014.0019335334.00-1.001.000.001.0020336335.00-1.001.000.001.0021335336.001.001.000.001.0022338335.00-3.003.000.019.0023342338.00-4.004.000.0116.0024348342.00-6.006.000.0236.0025330348.0018.0018.000.05324.0026326330.004.004.000.0116.0027329326.00-3.003.000.019.0028337329.00-8.008.000.0264.0029345337.00-8.008.000.0264.0030350345.00-5.005.000.0125.0031351350.00-1.001.000.001.0032354351.00-3.003.000.019.0033355354.00-1.001.000.001.0034357355.00-2.002.000.014.0035362357.00-5.005.000.0125.0036368362.00-6.006.000.0236.0037348368.0020.0020.000.06400.0038345348.003.003.000.019.0039349345.00-4.004.000.0116.0040355349.00-6.006.000.0236.0041362355.00-7.007.000.0249.0042367362.00-5.005.000.0125.0043366367.001.001.000.001.0044370366.00-4.004.000.0116.0045371370.00-1.001.000.001.0046375371.00-4.004.000.0116.0047380375.00-5.005.000.0125.0048385380.00-5.005.000.0125.0049361385.0024.0024.000.07576.0050354361.007.007.000.0249.0051357354.00-3.003.000.019.0052367357.00-10.0010.000.03100.0053376367.00-9.009.000.0281.0054381376.00-5.005.000.0125.0055381381.000.000.000.000.0056383381.00-2.002.000.014.0057384383.00-1.001.000.001.0058387384.00-3.003.000.019.0059392387.00-5.005.000.0125.0060396392.00-4.004.000.0116.00Total-81.00299.000.862791.00

n=60

ME-1.35MAD4.98MAPE1.43MSE46.52

alfa1.00Desviacion Estandar6.826.23

SOLVER PARA MAPEALIMENTOS = 0,5(suavizacion exponencial simple)MesAlimentos1ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2153.5551.51.50.02803738322.2525353.500.500.500.010.25353.253.00-0.200.200.000.04452.553.200.700.700.010.49553.452.50-0.900.900.020.81656.553.40-3.103.100.059.61765.356.50-8.808.800.1377.44870.765.30-5.405.400.0829.16966.970.703.803.800.0614.441058.266.908.708.700.1575.691155.358.202.902.900.058.411253.455.301.901.900.043.611352.153.401.301.300.021.691451.552.100.600.600.010.361551.551.500.000.000.000.001652.451.50-0.900.900.020.811753.352.40-0.900.900.020.811855.553.30-2.202.200.044.841964.255.50-8.708.700.1475.692069.664.20-5.405.400.0829.162169.369.600.300.300.000.092258.569.3010.8010.800.18116.642355.358.503.203.200.0610.242453.655.301.701.700.032.892552.353.601.301.300.021.692651.552.300.800.800.020.642751.751.50-0.200.200.000.042851.551.700.200.200.000.042952.251.50-0.700.700.010.493057.152.20-4.904.900.0924.013163.657.10-6.506.500.1042.253268.863.60-5.205.200.0827.043368.968.80-0.100.100.000.013460.168.908.808.800.1577.443555.660.104.504.500.0820.253653.955.601.701.700.032.893753.353.900.600.600.010.363853.153.300.200.200.000.043953.553.10-0.400.400.010.164053.553.500.000.000.000.004153.953.50-0.400.400.010.164257.153.90-3.203.200.0610.244364.757.10-7.607.600.1257.764469.464.70-4.704.700.0722.094570.369.40-0.900.900.010.814662.670.307.707.700.1259.294757.962.604.704.700.0822.094855.857.902.102.100.044.414954.855.801.001.000.021.005054.254.800.600.600.010.365154.654.20-0.400.400.010.165254.354.600.300.300.010.095354.854.30-0.500.500.010.255458.154.80-3.303.300.0610.895568.158.10-10.0010.000.15100.005673.368.10-5.205.200.0727.045775.573.30-2.202.200.034.845866.475.509.109.100.1482.815960.566.405.905.900.1034.816057.760.502.802.800.057.84Total-2.70183.102.981109.71

n=60

ME-0.045MAD3.0516666667MAPE4.9717344859MSE18.4951666667

alfa1Desviacion Estandar4.30060073323.8145833333

SOLVER PARA MAPEMETALES = 0,5(suavizacion exponencial simple)MesMetales1ErrorError ABSErros ABS/DtError ^ 2144.241-3.23.20.0723981910.24244.344.20-0.100.100.000.01344.444.30-0.100.100.000.01443.444.401.001.000.021.00542.843.400.600.600.010.36644.342.80-1.501.500.032.25744.444.30-0.100.100.000.01844.844.40-0.400.400.010.16944.444.800.400.400.010.161043.144.401.301.300.031.691142.643.100.500.500.010.251242.442.600.200.200.000.041342.242.400.200.200.000.041441.842.200.400.400.010.161540.141.801.701.700.042.89164240.10-1.901.900.053.611742.442.00-0.400.400.010.161843.142.40-0.700.700.020.491942.443.100.700.700.020.492043.142.40-0.700.700.020.492143.243.10-0.100.100.000.012242.843.200.400.400.010.16234342.80-0.200.200.000.042442.843.000.200.200.000.042542.542.800.300.300.010.092642.642.50-0.100.100.000.012742.342.600.300.300.010.092842.942.30-0.600.600.010.362943.642.90-0.700.700.020.493044.743.60-1.101.100.021.213144.544.700.200.200.000.04324544.50-0.500.500.010.253344.845.000.200.200.000.043444.944.80-0.100.100.000.013545.244.90-0.300.300.010.093645.245.200.000.000.000.00374545.200.200.200.000.043845.545.00-0.500.500.010.253946.245.50-0.700.700.020.494046.846.20-0.600.600.010.364147.546.80-0.700.700.010.494248.347.50-0.800.800.020.644348.348.300.000.000.000.004449.148.30-0.800.800.020.644548.949.100.200.200.000.044649.448.90-0.500.500.010.25475049.40-0.600.600.010.36485050.000.000.000.000.004949.650.000.400.400.010.165049.949.60-0.300.300.010.095149.649.900.300.300.010.095250.749.60-1.101.100.021.215350.750.700.000.000.000.005450.950.70-0.200.200.000.045550.550.900.400.400.010.165651.250.50-0.700.700.010.495750.751.200.500.500.010.255850.350.700.400.400.010.165949.250.301.101.100.021.216048.149.201.101.100.021.21Total-7.1033.500.7436.07

n=60

ME-0.1183333333MAD0.5583333333MAPE1.2394369805MSE0.6011666667

alfa1Desviacion Estandar0.77534938360.6979166667

Analisis Solver

MAPEOPTIMIZACION SOLVERCOMERCIO = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)COMERCIO = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)n=60n=60

ME-2.57ME-1.35MAD6.88MAD4.98MAPE1.96MAPE1.43MSE63.77MSE46.52

Desviacion Estandar7.99Desviacion Estandar6.828.596.23

alfa0.50alfa1.00

AnalisisSi optimizamos el MAPE de comercio por medio de solver podemos ver que ya no tendremos un porcentanje de error de 1,96 si no de 1,43 si cambiamos nuestro alfa a 1, lo que adicional nos va a permitir acercanos a nuestra media con respecto a la desviacion que nos mostraba anteriormente.

MAPEOPTIMIZACION SOLVERALIMENTOS = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)ALIMENTOS = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)n=60n=60



alfa0.50alfa1.00

AnalisisDebido a la optimizacion con solver de la MAPE de Alimentos nos arroja como resultado que podemos mejorar nuestro resultado bajando nuestro porcentaje de error de 7,65 a 4,97 y el error en unidades de 4,67 a 3,05.

MAPEOPTIMIZACION SOLVERMETALES = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)METALES = 0,5 (suavizacion exponencial simple)n=60n=60



alfa0.50alfa1.00

AnalisisCon la optimizacion en solver de MAPE de Metales pasamos a tener un porcentaje de error de 1,602 a 1,23, de igual manera se optimiza la desviacion lo cual hace que nos acerquemos de buena manera a nuestra media.

Punto 2PeriodoDemanda PronosticoErrorError ABSError ABS/ Demanda Error ^21200200.000.000.000.000.002135200.0065.0065.000.484225.003195.0161.00-34.0034.000.171156.004198181.40-16.1016.100.08259.215310191.06-118.94118.940.3814146.726175262.4287.4287.420.507642.967180209.9729.9729.970.17898.188230191.99-38.0138.010.171444.929220.0214.80-5.205.200.0227.0910260217.92-42.0842.080.161770.8911270243.17-26.8326.830.10720.0012259.27alfa0.6

Taller Atrasado - William Pachon

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