TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT!!!

download TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT!!!

If you can't read please download the document

description

TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT!!!. BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM Apr 4th, 2013 WELCOME!. AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY OPTIMISM GAUGE SENTIMENT/DIAGNOSTICS GAUGE - APRIL CHARTS OF INTEREST SO WHAT’S UP WITH: CXO ADVISORY A CLOSER LOOK AT: CERN DAVID’S CORNER - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT!!!

Slide 1

TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT!!!

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsBIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM

Apr 4th, 2013

WELCOME!

Built By Advisors For Advisors2AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTESQUOTE OF THE DAYOPTIMISM GAUGESENTIMENT/DIAGNOSTICS GAUGE - APRILCHARTS OF INTERESTSO WHATS UP WITH: CXO ADVISORYA CLOSER LOOK AT: CERN DAVIDS CORNERSWAPS AND SPREADSLEES COMMENTS QUESTIONS/COMMENTS

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsIF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TOHAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT.

WELL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS.

PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK.

THANK YOU! NOTESBuilt By Advisors For Advisors

BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!Built By Advisors For AdvisorsBigFoot On LinkedIn!Dont Forget To Join Our Group

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsNotifying You!SMS Alert SystemBuilt By Advisors For Advisors QUOTE OF THE DAY:If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization..Thomas Jeffersonit expects what never was and never will be!Built By Advisors For AdvisorsOptimism GaugeAs of: 4/4/2013Built By Advisors For AdvisorsIndicatorCurrent ValuePrior/Metric ValueCurrent ValueSt Louis Fed Financial Stress Index-0.634-0.708(Revised)+1.0Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon Mov Av)0.090.28(Revised)-.50

Unemployment7.77.9 (Revised)+.50Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av)354,250343,000-.50ECRI Weekly Index6.66.3+.50Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW)94.193.9+1.0University of Michigan Sentiment - Final78.6(Final Mar 2013)77.6(Final-Feb 2012)-.25Monthly Retail Sales (Adjusted)416,990416,070+.50NFIB Small Business Sentiment90.888.9-.50ISM Manufacturing51.3(Expansion Line = 50)54.2+.50Economic Capacity Utilization79.179.3(Revised)+.50Stock Market Moving Averages Weekly Data Points>50-day MA/>100-Day MAN/A

+.50S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index146.14145.95 (Revised)+.50Total+3.75Last Update: 4/4/2013Measuring Our Economy10 NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 67.7% PRIOR READING: 67.7%

BIAS: MILDLY BULLISH

9 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE

TREND - NeutralEconomicOptimismIndex152535456575859567.7%READING AS OF: 4/4/2013POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012 Current ReadingPrior ReadingMeasuring Our Economy11Market Sentiment/DiagnosticsAs of: April 2013Built By Advisors For AdvisorsSENTIMENT INDICATORS as of April 1, 20131. AAII Investor Survey2. TSP Sentiment Survey3. NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment4. CBOE Volatility Index INTERNAL INDICATORS5. S&P500 - 50D MA and 200D MA AND 2/10 MA6. NYSE Bullish %7. S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX)8. Percent of NYSE stocks above 200DMA9. Percent of NYSE stocks above 10WMAor 50DMA ($NYA50R)10. NYSE 52-Week New Highs and New Lows11. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 200DMA12. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 50DMAADDED INDICATORS13. Option Sentiment14. Option Buyers Sentiment Gauge (OBSG)15. Consumer Sentiment Index16. Nasdaq Sentiment Index17. Rydex Nova/Ursa Sentiment Indicator Built By Advisors For Advisors

29.4%April 2013Built By Advisors For Advisors14Charts of Interest!Built By Advisors For Advisors15Source: Wall Street JournalLow Correlation!

According to the Journal, the cause could be demand OR supply If the former: bad for the economy. If the latter: could be goodBuilt By Advisors For Advisors16The Philly Fed has a great Business Outlook Indicator that does a great job of assessing business conditions for the entire U.S. economy. Good to watch!!

Source: dShort/Philly FedLinear Regression and ChannelTRACKING DATAWeekly ClaimsMonthly PayrollIndustrial ProdPersonal IncomeManufacturing/TradeGDPBuilt By Advisors For Advisors17

SPREADS IN THE NEWSThe Cleveland Fed uses a 10-3 year yield spread to predict GDP growth for the yearCurrent outlook is for 0.5% growthBuilt By Advisors For Advisors18SEVEN OF MANY!!

PROBLEMS IN THE U.S. LABOR FORCEBuilt By Advisors For Advisors19DEFINING THE PROBLEM #1

Built By Advisors For Advisors20

DEFINING THE PROBLEM #2Built By Advisors For Advisors21DEFINING THE PROBLEM #3

Built By Advisors For Advisors22DEFINING THE PROBLEM #4

JOLTS REPORTBuilt By Advisors For Advisors23DEFINING THE PROBLEM #5,6,7TOMORROWS MARCH EMPLOYMENT SITUATIONBuilt By Advisors For Advisors24APRIL PORTFOLIO INFORMATIONBuilt By Advisors For Advisors25GROWTHBuilt By Advisors For Advisors26As of March 29, 2013 - Subject to change.April 2013 Stock PicksTOP 25 STOCKSApril-13RANKTICKERNAMESECTORINDUSTRYSCORE1CELGCelgene Corporation08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs81.772UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporatio08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs72.923MXMagnachip Semiconductor Corp10 - Technology1033 - Semiconductors77.994DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.09 - Services0951 - Retail (Department & Discount)77.995TJXTJX Companies, Inc., The09 - Services0945 - Retail (Apparel)77.056MONMonsanto Company01 - Basic Materials0103 - Chemical Manufacturing76.067CVLTCommVault Systems, Inc.10 - Technology1036 - Software & Programming75.448HRLHormel Foods Corporation05 - Consumer Non-Cyclical0515 - Food Processing75.229RMDResMed Inc.08 - Health Care0812 - Medical Equipment & Supplies74.2710AGNAllergan, Inc.08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs73.9011ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.11 - Transportation1106 - Airline73.9012ADSAlliance Data Systems Corporat07 - Financial0703 - Consumer Financial Services73.5513PRGOPerrigo Company08 - Health Care0809 - Major Drugs73.0614SRCLStericycle Inc09 - Services0975 - Waste Management Services72.9115DISCADiscovery Communications Inc.09 - Services0921 - Motion Pictures72.5716CERNCerner Corporation10 - Technology1036 - Software & Programming70.9017SBUXStarbucks Corporation05 - Consumer Non-Cyclical0515 - Food Processing70.4318TSCOTractor Supply Company09 - Services0960 - Retail (Home Improvement)70.1919FLTFleetCor Technologies, Inc.09 - Services0909 - Business Services70.0720HFCHollyFrontier Corp06 - Energy0609 - Oil & Gas Operations68.3321GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs68.3222LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.11 - Transportation1106 - Airline66.4823BLKBlackRock, Inc.07 - Financial0718 - Investment Services64.3624MAMastercard Inc07 - Financial0703 - Consumer Financial Services63.9225LUKLeucadia National Corp.01 - Basic Materials0115 - Forestry & Wood Products62.6227Investment Style of the PortfolioAs of March 29, 2013- Subject to change.TOP 25 STOCKSApril-13ULTIMATE SCREEN-BASED LISTRANKTICKERNAMEPopular Value Growth Quality Sentiment SCORE1CELGCelgene CorporationYES#N/A#N/A#N/AYES81.772UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporatio#N/AYESYES#N/A#N/A72.923MXMagnachip Semiconductor CorpYES#N/A#N/A#N/AYES77.994DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.YES#N/AYESYES#N/A77.995TJXTJX Companies, Inc., TheYES#N/AYESYES#N/A77.056MONMonsanto CompanyYES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A76.067CVLTCommVault Systems, Inc.YES#N/AYES#N/A#N/A75.448HRLHormel Foods Corporation#N/A#N/A#N/AYESYES75.229RMDResMed Inc.YES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A74.2710AGNAllergan, Inc.#N/A#N/A#N/AYESYES73.9011ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.YES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A73.9012ADSAlliance Data Systems Corporat#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/AYES73.5513PRGOPerrigo CompanyYES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A73.0614SRCLStericycle Inc#N/A#N/AYESYESYES72.9115DISCADiscovery Communications Inc.YES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A72.5716CERNCerner Corporation#N/A#N/AYES#N/AYES70.9017SBUXStarbucks Corporation#N/AYES#N/A#N/A#N/A70.4318TSCOTractor Supply CompanyYES#N/A#N/AYES#N/A70.1919FLTFleetCor Technologies, Inc.YES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A70.0720HFCHollyFrontier CorpYES#N/A#N/A#N/A#N/A68.3321GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.YES#N/A#N/A#N/AYES68.3222LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.YES#N/A#N/AYESYES66.4823BLKBlackRock, Inc.YESYES#N/A#N/A#N/A64.3624MAMastercard Inc#N/A#N/A#N/AYES#N/A63.9225LUKLeucadia National Corp.#N/A#N/A#N/AYES#N/A62.62Beta of the Portfolio April 2013For a Portfolio with 100% invested in Equity Beta of Portfolio= 0.93032RANKTICKERNAMESECTORINDUSTRYBETAWeightWeighted Beta1CELGCelgene Corporation08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs0.660.040.02642UTHRUnited Therapeutics Corporatio08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs0.910.040.03643MXMagnachip Semiconductor Corp10 - Technology1033 - Semiconductors2.390.040.095524DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.09 - Services0951 - Retail (Department & Discount)0.300.040.0125TJXTJX Companies, Inc., The09 - Services0945 - Retail (Apparel)0.640.040.02566MONMonsanto Company01 - Basic Materials0103 - Chemical Manufacturing0.930.040.03727CVLTCommVault Systems, Inc.10 - Technology1036 - Software & Programming0.720.040.02888HRLHormel Foods Corporation05 - Consumer Non-Cyclical0515 - Food Processing0.500.040.029RMDResMed Inc.08 - Health Care0812 - Medical Equipment & Supplies0.690.040.027610AGNAllergan, Inc.08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs0.830.040.033211ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.11 - Transportation1106 - Airline0.610.040.024412ADSAlliance Data Systems Corporat07 - Financial0703 - Consumer Financial Services1.380.040.055213PRGOPerrigo Company08 - Health Care0809 - Major Drugs0.710.040.028414SRCLStericycle Inc09 - Services0975 - Waste Management Services0.230.040.009215DISCADiscovery Communications Inc.09 - Services0921 - Motion Pictures0.960.040.038416CERNCerner Corporation10 - Technology1036 - Software & Programming0.800.040.03217SBUXStarbucks Corporation05 - Consumer Non-Cyclical0515 - Food Processing1.170.040.046818TSCOTractor Supply Company09 - Services0960 - Retail (Home Improvement)0.860.040.034419FLTFleetCor Technologies, Inc.09 - Services0909 - Business Services1.100.040.04420HFCHollyFrontier Corp06 - Energy0609 - Oil & Gas Operations0.980.040.039221GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.08 - Health Care0803 - Biotechnology & Drugs0.480.040.019222LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.11 - Transportation1106 - Airline1.140.040.045623BLKBlackRock, Inc.07 - Financial0718 - Investment Services1.540.040.061624MAMastercard Inc07 - Financial0703 - Consumer Financial Services0.890.040.035625LUKLeucadia National Corp.01 - Basic Materials0115 - Forestry & Wood Products1.840.040.07361.000.93032Beta of March Portfolio= 1.2104CHANGE IN BETAApril-13NEWDLTR0.30TJX0.64HRL0.50AGN0.83SRCL0.23CERN0.80FLT1.10LUV1.14AVG. BETA0.69March-13OLDKORS2.87CAM1.55CTRX0.62CDNS1.39FLS1.76EBAY1.43URBN1.08FLR1.43AVG. BETA1.52April 2013 Stock PicksAs of March 28, 2013 - Subject to change.

SectorAprilMarchTechnology12%16%Services24%16%Health Care24%20%Financial12%12%Energy4%8%Cons Non-Cyclical8%4%Cons Cyclical0%4%Cap Goods0%8%Basic Mat8%8%Transportation8%4%DIVIDENDBuilt By Advisors For Advisors32As of:4/1/2013RANK #TICKERCOMPANYGrowth ScoreYield ScoreDividend YieldTOTAL SCOREBetaRfRmCAPM1ARCCAres Capital Corporation72.5398.008.4085.261.750.060.68631.15602OHIOmega Healthcare Investors Inc65.2596.006.2080.630.930.060.68630.64243RAIReynolds American, Inc.65.9495.005.4080.470.570.060.68630.41704TOTTOTAL S.A. (ADR)64.0896.006.1080.041.020.060.68630.69885CTLCenturyLink, Inc.63.8996.006.2079.940.660.060.68630.47336MAINMain Street Capital Corporatio63.1995.005.7079.100.730.060.68630.51727TAT&T Inc.64.1794.004.9079.080.530.060.68630.39198INTCIntel Corporation65.6792.004.2078.831.020.060.68630.69889KMBKimberly Clark Corp67.8688.003.4077.930.310.060.68630.254110NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc55.7299.0011.2077.360.310.060.68630.254111AVAAvista Corp55.6793.004.6074.330.670.060.68630.479612MCDMcDonald's Corporation62.2286.003.1074.110.400.060.68630.310513UNSUNS Energy Corp58.5689.003.7073.780.590.060.68630.429514ORIOld Republic International Cor52.5095.005.7073.750.840.060.68630.586115CVXChevron Corporation61.4486.003.0073.720.800.060.68630.561016LNCOLinnCo LLC50.0097.007.4073.503.050.060.68631.970117LMTLockheed Martin Corporation52.7294.005.0073.360.940.060.68630.648718MSFTMicrosoft Corporation59.5687.003.3073.281.140.060.68630.774019HTSHatteras Financial Corp.47.0899.0010.0073.040.290.060.68630.241620AZNAstraZeneca plc (ADR)49.2595.005.7072.130.640.060.68630.460821COPConocoPhillips50.8992.004.3071.451.120.060.68630.761422WMWaste Management, Inc.52.8690.003.8071.430.560.060.68630.410723JNJJohnson & Johnson56.3586.003.1071.180.550.060.68630.404524KKRKKR & Co. L.P.45.0097.006.6071.002.080.060.68631.362725CLXClorox Company, The54.6586.003.0070.330.370.060.68630.2917BetaRfRmCAPMCurrent Portfolio Yield:5.3600.870.060.68630.6079%Per MonthCAPM of Portfolio7.54%AnnualizedCurrent Portfolio Yield5.36%Expected return of the Portfolio12.90%APRIL 2013

Q1 DATABuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsETF

ELIMINATEDIHI (+1% > 2/1/13)KCE (+10.70% >1/2/13)(iShares Med Dev)(SPDR Cap Mkts)Built By Advisors For Advisors34

SO WHATS UP WITH:CXO ADVISORY

Built By Advisors For Advisors

LAGGED EARNINGSAND INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGS& LAGGED INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGSAND INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGS YIELDMAY 1,2013AUG 1,2013START POINT:1/31/2013 1498.11Source: CXO AdvisoryTHE MARKET FORECAST PRIOR DATABuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsLOOKING FORWARD WITH THIS FORECASTMODEL WOULD PLACE THE S&P 500 AT:

3 MONTHS RANGE 1544.55 TO 1585.00

6 MONTHS RANGE 1595.49 TO 1670.39

Source: CXO AdvisoryAPRIL 1st ACTUAL: 1562.17 (START 1498.11) Built By Advisors For Advisors

LAGGED EARNINGSAND INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGS& LAGGED INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGSAND INFLATIONFORWARD EARNINGS YIELDJUL 1,2013OCT 1,2013START POINT:3/28/2013 1569.19Source: CXO AdvisoryTHE MARKET FORECAST NEW DATABuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsLOOKING FORWARD WITH THIS FORECASTMODEL WOULD PLACE THE S&P 500 AT:

3 MONTHS RANGE (Jul 1, 2013) : 1611.55 TO 1644.51

6 MONTHS RANGE (Oct 1, 2013) 1655.50 TO 1715.12

Source: CXO AdvisoryBuilt By Advisors For Advisors

A CLOSER LOOK AT: CERN Built By Advisors For AdvisorsCerner Corporation (CERN)Cerner Corporation designs, develops, markets, installs, hosts, and supports healthcare information technology, healthcare devices, hardware, and content solutions for healthcare organizations and consumers worldwide. It offers the Cerner Millennium architecture, which combines clinical, financial, and management information systems that allows providers to access an individual's electronic health record (EHR) at the point of care, and organizes and delivers information for physicians, nurses, laboratory technicians, pharmacists, front and back-office professionals, and consumers. The company also provides the Health Intent platform, a cloud-based architectural platform for population health that is agnostic to the source EHR and captures research, evidence, and financial and operational data, as well as provides the ability to apply statistical algorithms against contextual clinical activity to recommend clinical action. In addition, it offers a range of services, including implementation and training, remote hosting, operational management services, revenue cycle services, support and maintenance, healthcare data analysis, clinical process optimization, transaction processing, employer health centers, employee wellness programs, and third party administrator services for employer-based health plans. The company serves integrated delivery networks, physician groups and networks, managed care organizations, hospitals, medical centers, reference laboratories, home health agencies, blood banks, imaging centers, pharmacies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, employers, governments, and public health organizations. Cerner Corporation was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in North Kansas City, Missouri.Source: FinViz.com, April 2013

Source: Morningstar, April 2013POSITIVES: Satisfying "meaningful use" requirements imposed by the U.S. government are driving health-care providers to Cerner because a number of competitors are struggling to keep up with the technological requirements needed to fulfill such requirements.

Possible concerns: Very large companies such as General Electric, IBM, Microsoft, and Siemens have targeted the HCIT market for growth, which could pose a competitive threat to Cerner.Cerner Corporation (CERN)

Enters PortfolioBuilt By Advisors For Advisors43

ENTERS PORTFOLIO 4/1/2013Buy 4/1/2013 @ $93.99 Built By Advisors For Advisors

Trade DataBuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsApril 2013 Stock PicksAs of March 28, 2013 - Subject to change.

Industry:Software

FINVIZ SUMMARY

Built By Advisors For Advisors

VALUE LINE

Built By Advisors For Advisors

VALUE LINE

Built By Advisors For Advisors

VALUE LINE

Built By Advisors For Advisors

HITECH ACT:Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health ActA POTENTIAL CATALYST FOR CERNERPart of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act -2009$22 billion allocated to increase use of Electronic Health RecordsReimbursements/incentives to transition to EHRsMeaningful Use qualifierAlso incentives for Medicaid providers by 2016Doctors who dont adopt EHRs by 2015 1% Medicare penaltyIncreasing to 3% over 3 yearsTRANSLATED BETTER GET GOING OR PAY UP!

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsDow Technology Index

Looking for stabilityBuilt By Advisors For Advisors

Application Software

Built By Advisors For Advisors

Built By Advisors For Advisors

Built By Advisors For Advisors55

Built By Advisors For Advisors56

Built By Advisors For Advisors57

Typical Momentum StockBuilt By Advisors For Advisors58

Built By Advisors For Advisors59

Built By Advisors For Advisors60

Built By Advisors For Advisors

THE CHARTS PLEASE!

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsDAVIDS CORNERBuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsSWAPS & SPREADS

IGNORE AT YOUR PERILBuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsSWAPS AND SPREADSRATEPRIORCURRENTSTATUS*Libor/OIS14.5614.81Euribor/Eonia .148.138DTCC RepoIndexAgency.139.146MBS.158.155Treas.143.138High Yield4.784.87Federal ReserveCurrency Swaps (ECB)USD million7 Day2300Open7,9637,9632-Year Swap Spread.15.17*Note: Status = No impact Status = Negative Impact As Of: 4/3/2013CREDIT ANTICIPATES EQUITY CONFIRMSBuilt By Advisors For Advisors65LEES COMMENTSBuilt By Advisors For Advisors

Should we laugh or cry? I guess if you dont know the facts - this looks good!

Lets talk. This was proudly displayed by the bank in our buildingBuilt By Advisors For AdvisorsQUESTIONS & COMMENTS

THANKS FOR JOINING US!Built By Advisors For Advisors IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Content is intended for investment professional use/review only. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot Investments.com), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for any investment professionals clients portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. The investment professional retains all decision making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the presentation content. BigFoot has absolutely no responsibly for any suitability determination pertaining to any of the investment professionals clients, such obligation being exclusively the initial and ongoing responsibility of the investment professional. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot Investments.com. BigFoot Investments.com. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Investment Professional acknowledges that to the extent required to do so, it is his/her/its exclusively responsibility to advise his/her/its employer/broker-dealer of its BigFoot subscription. BigFoot Investments.com is a service of Lee Johnson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment adviser located in Fort Worth, Texas. A copy of the Lee Johnson Capital Management LLC current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.No Sharing of Content: You acknowledge that the presentation content is for investment professional use only. You warrant and represent not to share any portion of the presentation content with any non-subscriber, including but not limited to your clients or prospectsBuilt By Advisors For Advisors