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Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 1
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 2
WE CONTINUE TO PROTECT YOU AND YOUR INVESTMENT
Takaful myAl‐Afdhal plan is a 5‐year closed‐ended investment‐linked plan that allows
participants to invest in a Shariah‐compliant structured investment product. With its
principal‐protected feature, participants will enjoy coverage throughout the term while
profiting from investment returns in the form of Annual Profits* from their lump‐sum
Single Contribution.
The Shariah‐compliant structured investment portfolio is provided by Citibank Berhad
(“Citibank”) which has a credit rating of AAA/P1 financial institutional ratings, with a
stable outlook by RAM Holdings Berhad (“RAM”) as at 17th November 2009.
* Subject to the actual performance of the investment. The returns on the structured product investment will be based on the
performance of the Reference Assets whilst the principal will only be protected if investment is held to maturity.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 3
DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only. The opinion contained in this report is based on information obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable. Syarikat Takaful Malaysia Berhad makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained therein and it should not be relied upon as such.
* Sources of information: Reuters, Bloomberg, and Other Agencies
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 4
STATEMENT FROM THE GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR
In the Name of Allah, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful
It is a pleasure to reach our valuable myAl‐Afdhal investors for its second annual performance review for the period ended 19 June 2010.
The previous year has generally been quite a challenging year for many investors, having to withstand the volatility arising from the effort to support the global economy from melting down due to the financial crisis. We observed that most investments with global asset exposure were not able to resist the battered sentiments trickling down from the poor performance of almost all asset classes be it equity or commodity markets. The fragility of performance caused by the slump in the asset prices has affected the performance of most funds including structured products.
Despite the challenging year, for the past one year the investment performance of myAl‐Afdhal have shown strong recovery in most of the Reference Assets. This recovery has been reflected in the Net Asset Value (NAV) reaching a high of RM0.972 on 3 December 2009 as compared to last year’s closing of RM0.896.
It is important to highlight that the declaration of annual profits is dependent on the performance of the ‘Growth Overweight’ or ‘Defensive Overweight’ portfolios. To recap, the Growth Overweight portfolio comprises of 60% weight on Growth Basket and the remaining 40% on Defensive Basket whilst the Defensive Portfolio consists of 60% and 40% weights on Defensive and Growth Baskets respectively.
During the period under review, the Defensive Basket with fixed 25% allocation into European Sovereign Fixed Income Index and 75% of Precious Metal Index has recorded positive return. Nevertheless, the positive performance has been eclipsed by the large negative performance from the Growth Basket which consists 50% of Copper, 25% of Asian Blue Chip Equity Index and 25% of Japanese REITs Index.
As a result, both Growth Overweight and Defensive Overweight portfolios recorded negative returns of 14.38% and 6.79% respectively as shown in the table below:‐
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 5
G r o w t h B a s k e t
A v e r a g eC u m u l a t i v e R e t u r n f o r 8
Q u a r t e r s
% w e i g h t i n t h e b a s k e t
P e r f o r m a n c e o f b a s k e t
C o p p e r S p o t ( 3 0 . 6 5 ) 5 0 %(2 9 . 5 5 ) A s i a n B l u e C h i p E q u it y I n d e x ( 2 2 . 3 3 ) 2 5 %
J a p a n e s e R E I T s I n d e x ( 3 4 . 5 5 ) 2 5 %
D e f e n s i v e B a s k e t
A v e r a g e C u m u l a t i v e R e t u r n f o r 8
Q u a r t e r s
% w e i g h t i n t h e b a s k e t
P e r f o r m a n c e o f b a s k e t
E u r o p e a n S o v e r e ig n F i x e d I n c o m e I n d e x 1 2 . 2 2 2 5 % 8 . 3 8
P r e c i o u s M e t a l I n d e x 7 . 0 9 7 5 %
P o r t f o l i o P e r f o r m a n c e 1
G r o w t h B a s k e t D e f e n s i v e
B a s k e t P e r f o r m a n c e o f
P o r t f o l io
G r o w t h O v e r w e i g h t P o r t f o l i o ( 1 7 . 7 3 ) 3 . 3 5 ( 1 4 . 3 8 )
6 0 % x ( 2 9 . 5 5 ) 4 0 % x 8 . 3 8 ( 1 7 . 7 3 ) + 3 . 3 5
D e f e n s i v e O v e r w e i g h t P o r t f o l i o ( 1 1 . 8 2 ) 5 . 0 3 ( 6 .7 9 )
4 0 % x ( 2 9 . 5 5 ) 6 0 % x 8 . 3 8 ( 1 1 . 8 2 ) + 5 . 0 3
Hence, with both portfolios recorded negative returns, no annual profit is available for distribution with the NAV of myAl‐Afdhal registered at RM0.940 for the financial year ended 19 June 2010.
Going forward, we have seen concerted efforts from governments all over the world putting in place necessary measures in bringing back the world economy into growth trajectory. It is positive that the world is currently on the track for recovery, in which International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the world output to grow by 4.6% in 2010 as opposed to a contraction of 0.6% recorded in 2009. Whilst we are optimistic with the recovery, economic uncertainties remain with major concerns on European sovereign debt crisis and change in economic policy in certain major economies especially China could affect the global economic growth.
We believe that your investment is able to withstand any challenges ahead considering that the capital is protected if it is held until maturity in 2013. In addition to that, you will also continue to enjoy our Takaful protection.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 6
Thank you for your strong support and we will continue to give our best of service to you.
Let us invest in a better year ahead.
May Allah give us His guidance, Amin.
DATO’ HASSAN KAMIL Group Managing Director
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 7
0.800
0.850
0.900
0.950
1.00016‐Jul‐08
16‐Aug‐08
16‐Sep‐08
16‐Oct‐08
16‐Nov‐08
16‐Dec‐08
16‐Jan
‐09
16‐Feb‐09
16‐M
ar‐09
16‐Apr‐09
16‐M
ay‐09
16‐Jun‐09
16‐Jul‐09
16‐Aug‐09
16‐Sep‐09
16‐Oct‐09
16‐Nov‐09
16‐Dec‐09
16‐Jan
‐10
16‐Feb‐10
16‐M
ar‐10
16‐Apr‐10
16‐M
ay‐10
16‐Jun‐10
Highest NAV:
3 Dec 09 RM0.972
Lowest NAV:
10 Sept 08
RM0.850
Net Asset Value
(NAV)
FUND PERFORMANCE
Annual Fund Performance Review for the period ended 19 June 2010
myAl‐Afdhal entered into its second year with a great hope that concerted efforts by the global
economies to reduce interest rates and spur lending activities, as well as the introduction of
massive amount of stimulus package to support economic activities would support the
underlying assets to perform better and improve the net asset value of the fund. To recap,
myAl‐Afdhal is a 5‐year Shariah compliant capital protected investment link fund which
performance is linked to the international multi asset classes covering European sovereign
bonds, Asian equity market, precious metal, copper and Japanese property market. As such,
the performance of myAl‐Afdhal is determined by the state of global markets.
During the period under review, supported by those fiscal measures, major economies have
been back on their feet to steer the global economies into recovery track. Asian economies
especially China, appears to be on a fast trajectory mode and hailed as the leader in the
economic recovery process. Unfortunately, as global business and consumers’ confidence
being built up, the world was stunned by the emergence of European sovereign debt crisis early
this year, causing expectation that global recovery may be slower than expected and higher
market volatility.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 8
Despite the challenging year, the investment performance of myAl‐Afdhal had shown recovery in most Reference Assets. This recovery has been reflected in the Net Asset Value (NAV) of my Al‐Afdhal which recorded its high of RM0.972 on 3 December 2009 before settling down for the year to close at RM0.940 which is an increase by 4.9% as compared to first year’s closing of RM0.896.
The Defensive Basket with fixed 25% allocation into European Sovereign Fixed Income Index and 75% of Precious Metal Index has recorded positive return during the period under review. Nevertheless, the positive performance has been eclipsed by the large negative performance from the Growth Basket which consists 50% of Copper, 25% of Asian Blue Chips Equity Index and 25% of Japanese REITs Index.
Growth Basket 60%
Defensive Basket, 40%
Growth Basket, 40%Defensive
Basket, 60%
Growth Basket
Defensive Basket
Performance of Portfolio
(17.73) 3.35 (14.38)
Growth Basket
Defensive Basket
Performance of Portfolio
(11.82) 5.03 (6.79)
Growth Overweight Portfolio
Defensive Overweight Portfolio
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 9
Performance of Underlying Since Inception
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
160.00%
6/16/08 9/16/08 12/16/08 3/16/09 6/16/09 9/16/09 12/16/09 3/16/10
QW1A Index SPGCPMP Index DJTGR Index LOCADY Comdty TSEREIT Index
Base 100
Inception
At the close of the 2nd Anniversary, both Growth Overweight and Defensive Overweight Portfolios recorded negative performance of 14.38% and 6.79% respectively. It is important to highlight that the declaration of annual profits is dependent on the performance of the ‘Defensive Overweight’ or ‘Growth Overweight’ portfolios.
As the performances since inception of both portfolios are still negative, no annual profit is available for distribution for the period ended 19 June 2010.
Details of computation of each underlying are given in Appendix A and B.
Outlook
Various measures have been introduced globally in order to ensure that economic recovery
momentum is sustainable. It is thus expected for monetary policy to remain highly
accommodative across the globe, where low interest rate is likely to be maintained. In the US,
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its recent meeting on 23 June 2010 maintained
its key short term lending rate near 0%, and reiterated that the rate would remain exceptionally
low for an extended period.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 10
In the wake of the Europe’s sovereign financial crises, government in major economies is
already taking appropriate measures to restore fiscal disciplines. An obvious example would be
in the UK, where the new government unveiled the latest budget plan of £40 billion fiscal
tightening in order to provide the necessary support to the country. Consequently, the
European Governments may also have to reinstate its fiscal discipline by trimming or balancing
their budget deficits and containing further rise in borrowings.
In China, the People's Bank of China continues to tighten liquidity and signaled that it remains
focused on reigning in liquidity and stemming inflation in the effort to maintain a healthy state
of its economy.
With the appropriate monetary and fiscal policies in place, global economy is expected to
continue on its recovery. Economic forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the
world output is on an uptrend where it is expected to increase to 4.6% in 2010 as opposed to a
contraction of 0.6% recorded in 2009.
Anticipation for a better performance of each asset classes has been built based on the
expectation that economic recovery would restore business and consumers confidence. As
such, the underlying assets that have lost more than 50% of its initial value may need more
uplift for it to off‐set the negative performance and in turn allow the Growth basket in
particular to record positive return. With the understanding that the underlying assets
performance move in tandem with the global recovery, hopes remains that the respective asset
classes will be able to restore its value beyond its initial level.
Going forward, it is hope that the concerted efforts from government all over the world would
be able to bring back the world economy into growth trajectory which is expected to bring
more positive momentum to performance of myAl‐Afdhal. On the other hand, while it is
positive on the global recovery momentum, economic uncertainties remain with major
concerns on sovereign debt crisis and changes in economic policy in some major economies
especially China, could lead to slower recovery than expected.
The performance review and outlook of each underlying asset classes is detailed out in
Appendix B of the report.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 11
APPENDICES Appendix A
Detailed computation of portfolio performance
Appendix B
Performance review & outlook on individual asset class
1. European Sovereign Fixed Income Index
2. Precious Metal Index
3. Copper Spot
4. Asian Blue Chip Equity Index
5. Japanese REITs Index
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 12
APPENDIX A
The computation of performance payout is based on the average of cumulative return for 8 quarters starting from 16 September 2008 up to 16 June 2010.
Growth Basket
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
% weight in the basket
Performance of basket
Copper Spot (30.65) 50%
(29.55) Asian Blue Chip Equity Index (22.33) 25%
Japanese REITs Index (34.55) 25%
Defensive Basket
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
% weight in the basket
Performance of basket
European Sovereign Fixed Income Index 12.22 25% 8.38
Precious Metal Index 7.09 75%
Portfolio Performance1
Growth Basket Defensive Basket
Performance of Portfolio
Growth Overweight Portfolio (17.73) 3.35 (14.38)
60% x (29.55) 40% x 8.38 (17.73) + 3.35
Defensive Overweight Portfolio (11.82) 5.03 (6.79)
40% x (29.55) 60% x 8.38 (11.82) +5.03
1 The performance of each portfolio is calculated as the total of the performance of both baskets, calculated based on the weights of each basket for the portfolio.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 13
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
6/16
/200
8
7/16
/200
8
8/16
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
10/1
6/20
08
11/1
6/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
1/16
/200
9
2/16
/200
9
3/16
/200
9
4/16
/200
9
5/16
/200
9
6/16
/200
9
7/16
/200
9
8/16
/200
9
9/16
/200
9
10/1
6/20
09
11/1
6/20
09
12/1
6/20
09
1/16
/201
0
2/16
/201
0
3/16
/201
0
4/16
/201
0
5/16
/201
0
6/16
/201
0
Cha
nge
in in
vest
men
t val
ues
(%)
APPENDIX B
PERFORMANCE REVIEW & OUTLOOK OF INDIVIDUAL ASSET CLASS
1. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN FIXED INCOME INDEX
Initial Strike
(16.06.08)
Quarter 1 (16.09.08)
Quarter 2 (16.12.08)
Quarter 3 (16.03.09)
Quarter 4 (16.06.09)
Quarter 5 (16.09.09)
Quarter 6 (16.12.09)
Quarter 7 (16.03.09)
Quarter 8 (16.06.10)
Average CumulativeReturn for 8 Quarters
143.84
149.89 (+4.21%)
156.25 (+8.63%)
157.90 (+9.78%)
158.94 (+10.50%)
164.51 (+14.37%)
166.48 (+15.74%)
168.59 (+17.21%)
167.75 (+17.32%)
+12.22%
* Percentage change of price in value is computed by comparing to the Initial Strike
Review
The European Sovereign Fixed Income Index recorded a positive average cumulative
return of 12.22%, reflecting its defensive nature to withstand the financial market
turbulence for the period under review. Despite the European sovereign debt crisis
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 14
sparked in Greece early 2010, the index performed considerable well even when
investors shifted their risk appetite and fled to safe haven assets. In tackling the current
crisis faced by Greece, European Central Bank (ECB) and IMF announced an
unprecedented package included up to 500 billion euro “European Stabilization
Mechanism” from Euro‐area governments with an additional International Monetary
Fund contribution of up to 250 billion euro.
Outlook
While the European Stabilization Mechanism and ECB asset purchases helped to contain
the spill‐over of the sovereign debt crisis, additional austerity measures in the fiscally
most strained countries will increase the GDP growth differentials between the euro
area countries in 2010.
Concerns remain over the long‐term solvency of sovereign borrowers in the Europe’s
periphery (notably Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland). It is expected for the index to
be resilience even though much effort need to be introduced by the European bloc as
poor competitiveness, weak growth and soaring public debts are not expected to be
fully addressed from the rescue package alone.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 15
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
6/16
/200
8
7/16
/200
8
8/16
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
10/1
6/20
08
11/1
6/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
1/16
/200
9
2/16
/200
9
3/16
/200
9
4/16
/200
9
5/16
/200
9
6/16
/200
9
7/16
/200
9
8/16
/200
9
9/16
/200
9
10/1
6/20
09
11/1
6/20
09
12/1
6/20
09
1/16
/201
0
2/16
/201
0
3/16
/201
0
4/16
/201
0
5/16
/201
0
6/16
/201
0
Cha
nge
in in
vest
men
t val
ues (
%)
2. PRECIOUS METAL INDEX
Initial Strike
(16.06.08)
Quarter 1 (16.09.08)
Quarter 2 (16.12.08)
Quarter 3 (16.03.09)
Quarter 4(16.06.09
)
Quarter 5 (16.09.09)
Quarter 6 (16.12.09)
Quarter 7 (16.03.09)
Quarter 8 (16.06.10)
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
137.08
114.77 (‐16.28%)
122.93 (‐10.32%)
135.46 (‐1.18%)
137.49 (0.29%)
151.96 (+10.85%)
167.27 (+22.02%)
164.88 (+20.28%)
179.72 (+31.10%)
+7.09%
* Percentage change of price in value is computed by comparing to the Initial Strike
Review
After plunging to its low during the second half of 2008, Precious Metal Index
rebounded and persistently on an upward trend as investors shifted to gold for safe
haven investments and recorded a positive average cumulative return of 7.09%. During
the financial crisis, gold continued to offer insurance for investors concerned about a
potential W shape recovery. For the period under review, the price of gold was well
supported driven by the USD weakness, demand from China and inflation expectations.
Late in 2009, World Gold Council released data which showed identifiable gold demand
improved by more than 10% quarter on quarter basis in 3Q09 driven primarily by the
strong jewelry demand.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 16
Outlook
On the global front, it is expected for gold to remain resilient as concerns on the
sustainability of economic recovery with sovereign debt crisis remain an issue on the
European bloc. Supply is likely to remain tight given that expansion plans for mining
companies in Australia, the second‐largest gold producing nation, which will also benefit
the price for gold and hence the Precious Metal Index.
Economic wise, even though inflationary pressures cease to become a major issue
globally, prices for gold and other precious metal believed to maintain as strong as
investors shift preference to safe haven investment.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 17
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
6/16
/200
8
7/16
/200
8
8/16
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
10/1
6/20
08
11/1
6/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
1/16
/200
9
2/16
/200
9
3/16
/200
9
4/16
/200
9
5/16
/200
9
6/16
/200
9
7/16
/200
9
8/16
/200
9
9/16
/200
9
10/1
6/20
09
11/1
6/20
09
12/1
6/20
09
1/16
/201
0
2/16
/201
0
3/16
/201
0
4/16
/201
0
5/16
/201
0
6/16
/201
0
Cha
nge
in in
vest
men
t val
ues
(%)
3. COPPER SPOT
Initial Strike
(16.06.08)
Quarter 1 (16.09.08)
Quarter 2 (16.12.08)
Quarter 3 (16.03.09)
Quarter 4 (16.06.09)
Quarter 5 (16.09.09)
Quarter 6 (16.12.09)
Quarter 7 (16.03.09)
Quarter 8 (16.06.10)
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
8,255.00
6,841.00 (‐17.13%)
3,020.50 (‐63.41%)
3,690.00 (‐55.30%)
5049.00 (‐38.84%)
6,315.50 (‐23.49%)
6,946.00 (‐15.86%)
7,341.50 (‐11.07%)
6,592.50 (‐20.14%)
‐30.65%
* Percentage change of price in value is computed by comparing to the Initial Strike
Review
With the downtrend from its inception until the end of 2008, Copper Spot had rallied
and was exceptionally strong in the second half of 2009. In China, it was initially
observed that consumption has increase rapidly boosted by restocking. Weakening USD,
a flight to hard assets such as gold and precious commodities, fund investment and
leverage to the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD)
recovery have all supported and propelled the price of copper. Nevertheless, US copper
futures have fallen in response to weaker than expected US jobs data and debt
contagion fears in the Euro zone has resulted in the Copper Spot to head south towards
the end of period under review.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 18
Hence, Copper Spot registered an average cumulative return of negative 30.65%.
Outlook
The weak market is expected to continue going forward with the lower demand for
copper from the possible potential risk of the European debt issues to the copper
consuming regions. For example, a slower economic growth in China may dampen
industrial activities which are expected to stale the demand for copper and reflect a
downside impact to the Copper Spot price.
Based on the study undertaken by International Copper Study Group, an
intergovernmental organisation that serves to increase copper market transparency and
promote international discussions and cooperation on issues related to copper,
recognised that there is still much uncertainty imposed on the price of copper going
forward in consideration of the slower rate of the economic recovery especially in the
copper consuming regions that have experienced a severe recessions in the 2008‐2009
period.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 19
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
6/16
/200
8
7/16
/200
8
8/16
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
10/1
6/20
08
11/1
6/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
1/16
/200
9
2/16
/200
9
3/16
/200
9
4/16
/200
9
5/16
/200
9
6/16
/200
9
7/16
/200
9
8/16
/200
9
9/16
/200
9
10/1
6/20
09
11/1
6/20
09
12/1
6/20
09
1/16
/201
0
2/16
/201
0
3/16
/201
0
4/16
/201
0
5/16
/201
0
6/16
/201
0
Chan
ge in
inve
stmen
t val
ues (
%)
4. ASIAN BLUE CHIP EQUITY INDEX
Initial Strike
(16.06.08)
Quarter 1 (16.09.08)
Quarter 2 (16.12.08)
Quarter 3 (16.03.09)
Quarter 4 (16.06.09)
Quarter 5 (16.09.09)
Quarter 6 (16.12.09)
Quarter 7 (16.03.09)
Quarter 8 (16.06.10)
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
480.91
372.24 (‐22.60%)
292.10 (‐39.26%)
255.75 (‐46.82%)
356.03 (‐25.97%)
430.22 (‐10.54%)
438.74 (‐8.77%)
429.13 (‐10.77%)
413.99 (‐13.92%)
‐22.33%
* Percentage change of price in value is computed by comparing to the Initial Strike
Review
Asian Blue Chip Equity Index have shown an uptrend during the period under review
albeit with high volatility, as it tracked the positive rise in the US equity markets led by
positive data outflows from the US. The last two quarters in Asia (Q42009 and Q12010),
where growth predominantly surprised positively, saw a more meaningful upturn in
domestic demand across the region leading to the recovery of the index. Nevertheless,
the concern over the European sovereign debt crisis had caused the volatility and
weakness in the Asian equity market.
For the period under review, Asian Blue Chip Equity Index recorded an average
cumulative return of negative 22.33%.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 20
Outlook
Generally, trading momentum from the Asia equity market could be affected by how
much confidence deteriorates and the broader implications on the financial systems
following concern over the impacts from European sovereign debt crisis.
With the Asian Blue Chip Equity Index composition consists of stocks mainly from Hong
Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, of which the latter two countries are among the biggest
exports contributor to the Europe in 2009, it is expected for the index to remain volatile
going forward. Nevertheless, subject to efficient measures being implemented by the
European bloc, investors’ confidence is also expected to improve further which would in
turn reflect a better performance for the Asian Blue Chip Equity Index.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 21
45.00%
55.00%
65.00%
75.00%
85.00%
95.00%
105.00%
6/16
/200
8
7/16
/200
8
8/16
/200
8
9/16
/200
8
10/1
6/20
08
11/1
6/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
1/16
/200
9
2/16
/200
9
3/16
/200
9
4/16
/200
9
5/16
/200
9
6/16
/200
9
7/16
/200
9
8/16
/200
9
9/16
/200
9
10/1
6/20
09
11/1
6/20
09
12/1
6/20
09
1/16
/201
0
2/16
/201
0
3/16
/201
0
4/16
/201
0
5/16
/201
0
6/16
/201
0
Cha
nge
in in
vest
men
t val
ues
(%)
5. JAPANESE REITs INDEX
Initial Strike
(16.06.08)
Quarter 1 (16.09.08)
Quarter 2 (16.12.08)
Quarter 3 (16.03.09)
Quarter 4 (16.06.09)
Quarter 5 (16.09.09)
Quarter 6 (16.12.09)
Quarter 7 (16.03.09)
Quarter 8 (16.06.10)
Average Cumulative Return for 8 Quarters
1424.31
1177.84 (‐17.30%)
901.18 (‐36.73%)
782.05 (‐45.09%)
884.57 (‐37.89%)
1002.96 (‐29.58%)
866.54 (‐39.16%)
927.16 (‐34.90%)
915.32 (‐35.74%)
‐34.55%
* Percentage change of price in value is computed by comparing to the Initial Strike
Review
Signs of recovery in the Japanese property market continue to emerge during the period
under review, starting from the second quarter of 2009, in line with the better
performance in its GDP, from negative 8.9% year on year during the 1Q2009, to
negative 1.0% year on year during the 4Q2009. Nevertheless, the performance has been
quite volatile owed to the impact from the slowing down of global economic activities.
With the large negative performance recorded earlier, the Japanese REITs Index
registered a negative average cumulative return of 34.55%.
Takaful myAfdhal Annual Performance Review 2009/2010 I Page 22
Outlook
The government’s stimulus package, coupled with strengthening in business profitability
and improvements in employment is expected to play a major part to boost the
domestic demand across all sectors including property. On this positive note, it was
reported that the Japanese economic growth is forecasted to be around 2.6% for the
year to March 2011, from an earlier projection of 1.4%, which would see Japan
achieving GDP growth of more than 2% for the first time since 2006.
The government also recently unveiled a long‐term fiscal management policy which
aims to achieve a primary balance surplus in fiscal 2020 in a bid to avoid a Greece‐style
debt crisis. With proper implementation of the policies introduced, positive outlook
remains for the Japanese economy to achieve GDP growth of more than 2% as
forecasted, hence supporting the property market to recover.