[Table MainInfo][Table Title] 2019-05-31...[Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 2003 2017...

30
[Table_MainInfo] / 2003 2017 2018 2018 2011 3.04 2018 14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011 0.44 2018 2.92 CAGR 31% 764 1500 2000 2019 5 18 Tommy Hilfiger Tommy Hilfiger 2019 2020 29 42 23 79 42 07 31 09 2019 21 01 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 1,054 1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839 (+/-)% 25.23% 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10% 180 292 415 544 690 (+/-)% 35.92% 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86% 0.99 1.61 2.29 3.00 3.81 60.56 20.72 21.01 16.03 12.63 7.57 3.72 4.27 3.37 2.66 (%) 12.49% 17.95% 20.32% 21.03% 21.06% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% ( ) 107 181 181 181 181 2019/5/27 6 68.7 43.54 12 25.51 76.20 7,896 181 A 181 B /H 0/0 1 -36% -25% -14% -3% 8% 19% 2018/5 2018/8 2018/11 2019/2 % 1M 3M 12M -8% 16% 4% -1% 17% 9% 002832 & --20190423 002832 --20180903 S0550515060001 S0550118080038 (021)20363236 [email protected] 002832 / 2019-05-31

Transcript of [Table MainInfo][Table Title] 2019-05-31...[Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 2003 2017...

Page 1: [Table MainInfo][Table Title] 2019-05-31...[Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / [Table_Summary] 2003 2017 2018 2018 2011 3.04 2018 14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011 0.44 2018 2.92 CAGR 31% 764 1500

[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title]

/

[Table_Summary] 2003

2017 2018

2018

2011 3.04 2018

14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011

0.44 2018 2.92 CAGR 31%

764 1500 2000

2019 5 18

Tommy Hilfiger

Tommy Hilf iger

2019 2020 29 42 23 79

42 07 31 09 2019

21 01

[Table_Finance] 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

1,054 1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839

(+/-)% 25.23% 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%

180 292 415 544 690

(+/-)% 35.92% 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%

0.99 1.61 2.29 3.00 3.81

60.56 20.72 21.01 16.03 12.63

7.57 3.72 4.27 3.37 2.66

(%) 12.49% 17.95% 20.32% 21.03% 21.06%

(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

( ) 107 181 181 181 181

[Table_Invest]

[Table_Market] 2019/5/27

6 68.7

43.54

12 25.51 76.20

7,896

181

A 181

B /H 0/0

1

[Table_PicQuote]

-36%

-25%

-14%

-3%

8%

19%

2018/5 2018/8 2018/11 2019/2

[Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M

-8% 16% 4%

-1% 17% 9%

[Table_Report]

002832

& --20190423

002832

--20180903

[Table_Author]

S0550515060001

S0550118080038

(021)20363236 [email protected]

002832 /

2019-05-31

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1. ............. 5

1.1. ...................................5

1.2. ...................................................................................................6

1.3. ...................................................7

1.4. ...............................................................................7

2. .......................... 9

2.1. ...............................................................................9

2.2. ......................................................... 11

2.3. .....................................................................................................12

2.4. .........................................14

3. .............. 15

3.1. .....................................15

3.2. .........................................16

3.2.1. ........................................................................... 16

3.2.2. .................................................................................. 17

3.2.3. Ralph Lauren ...................................... 18

3.2.4. Tommy Hilf iger ............................................................................... 20

3.3. FILA ...................................................................21

4. ............................................................................................. 23

5. .......................................................................... 25

6. ............................................................................................. 27

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1 .............................................................................................................. 5

2 .............................................................................................................. 7

3 .......................................................................................................... 8

4 1% ...................................................................................................... 8

5 ............................................................................................................................... 9

6 .............................................................................. 9

7 ................................................................................................................ 10

8 .................................................................................................................... 11

9 .................................................................................................................... 11

10 .............................................................................................................. 12

11 ................................................................................................... 13

12 .............................................................................................................. 17

13 ........................................................................................................................... 21

14 .................................................................................................. 25

15 .......................................................................................................... 26

1 ...................................................................................................................... 5

2 .......................................................................................................................... 6

3 ............................................................................................................................... 6

4 ............................................................................................................................... 6

5 .................................................................................................. 6

6 .................................................................................................. 6

7 .............................................................................................. 6

8 .............................................................................................................. 8

9 ...................................................................................................................... 9

10 ........................................................................................................ 9

11 ............................................................................................... 10

12 .......................................................................................................... 10

13 VIP ................................................................................. 11

14 .............................................................................................................. 11

15 .................................................................................................. 11

16 .......................................................................................................... 11

17 .......................................................................................................... 13

18 .......................................................................................... 14

19 2018 ................................................................................................. 14

20 ...................................................................................................... 15

21 ...................................................................................................... 15

22 .............................................................................. 15

23 .................................................................................. 15

24 .......................................................................................... 16

25 .................................................................... 16

26 ...................................................................................................................... 17

27 .............................................................................................. 18

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28 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................. 18

29 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................................. 19

30 POLO ...................................................................................................................... 19

31 Ralph Lauren ......................................................................................................... 19

32 Ralph Lauren ................................................................................. 19

33 Ralph Lauren ................................................................. 20

34 2017-2019 Ralph Lauren .................................................. 20

35 .................................................................................................................. 21

36 Tommy Hilfiger ..................................................................... 21

37 Tommy Hilfiger ..................................................................... 21

38 .............................................................................................. 22

39 .............................................................................................. 22

40 FILA ............................................................................ 22

41 .......................................................................................... 23

42 ...................................................................................... 23

43 ...................................................................................................... 23

44 ...................................................................................................... 23

45 .......................................................................................................... 24

46 .......................................................................................................... 24

47 .................................................................................................................. 24

48 ROE ................................................................................................ 24

49 ...................................................................................... 24

50 ...................................................................................... 25

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1.

1.1.

2003 16

2017 2018

1

2018

1953

1

1000 2000 2000 5000 1000 2000 400 1000

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Wind

2 3

4 5

1.2. 2011 3.04 2018

14.76 CAGR 25.3% 2011 0.44 2018

2.92 CAGR 31% 2016 12

2019 Q1, 27.37% 52.91%

6 7

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Wind Wind

1.3.

30

2018

2

2007 10 ( )

2012 2 ,

1.4. 2018

41.25%

45%

7.5%,

52.75%

3.75% 1.5%

17.37%

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8

Wind

2018 1 31

2018 12 4

5000 -1 42 /

238.10 1.31%

36

2019 4 18

42 / 70 /

2019 5 10 1,862,947 1.0273%

3

2018 1 31

2019 1 30

287.8 9997.7

1.59%

59.05 /

34.74 /

Wind

4 1%

2019 5 10 186.3 677.5 1.0273% 59.05 / 30.30 /

Wind

2019 5 30

1 900 2294

40% 600 24

12 2019 5 10 0.68

1862947 36.37 /

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2.

2.1.

1:1.2

2018 12 31 31

764 112

1500 2000

9 10

Wind

5

2017

2018

2018 112 764 17 18

40 20

6

2015 2016 2017 2018

753.61 842.01 1,054.43 1,475.75

yoy 16.00% 11.73% 25.23% 39.96%

601 602 652 764

42 1 50 112

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1.25 1.40 1.62 1.93

7.89% 11.54% 15.62% 19.44%

2019 5 18

60% 40%

11 12

7

T POLO T

POLO T

VIP 60%-70% VIP

VIP

VIP VIP

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13 VIP 14

2.2.

15 16

2015

9% 3.5%

8

2015 147 9.48% 2677.26 3.55%

2016 150 9.15% 3146.07 3.74%

2017 168 9.27% 4087.88 3.88%

2018 173 7.54% 4967.31 3.37%

Wind

9

2011

2012 2011 2012

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2012 2011 2012

2012

2013

2013

2013

2018

2018 2020

2018

47

30

10

Paul Rees

1997

2000 Burberry

2007

2008 Golfino

1999

1991 NON-NO

2000 Wolsey

2007

2007 SAMSUNG

2008 LG FASHION

2016 E-LAND

2017 GY goldlion

2.3.

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17

11

Logo

1858

2010 500 196

80 152

7 500 3

BURBURRY LANVIN GUCCI

1925

HERMES BOSS CANALI

POLARTEC 1906

100

NORRONA MAMMUT lululemon ARCTERYX

1959

GORE-TEX

1981

ARCTERYX Woolrich HAGLOFS visvim MAMMUT

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LEGGIUNO 1908

3500 1500

1926

20

2010 229

-

PUMA Mizuno Callaway

2.4. 2018

18 19 2018

2013

2016

2018 8

2 2

11

2013

2020

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20 21

2018

8

T 1 100

22 23

3.

3.1.

2018

600 167

2023 241

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24 25

2019 2019

3.2. 3.2.1.

18 18

100mph 140mph

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26

3.2.2.

2018 T 2019

12

Wolsey

Jack Nicklaus

Ashworth

Munsingwear

Callaway

Taylormade

Polo Ralph Lauren

LACOSTE

Brooks Brothers

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27

3.2.3. Ralph Lauren

1967 Ralph Lauren

"POLO RALPH LAUREN

35 200-400

500-1000

Ralph Lauren Ralph

Lauren

50 Ralph Lauren

Ralph Lauren Luxury

Polo Ralph Lauren Club Monaco

28 Ralph Lauren

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29 Ralph Lauren

30 POLO 31 Ralph Lauren

32 Ralph Lauren

Wind

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33 Ralph Lauren

Wind

34 2017-2019 Ralph Lauren

Wind

3.2.4. Tommy Hilfiger

1985 Tommy Hilf iger Hilf iger

Tommy Hilfiger

25 45

1985 Tommy Hilfiger

46

1997

1000

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35

36 Tommy Hilfiger 37 Tommy Hilfiger

13

T POLO

800-5000 1000-5000 1000-3000 600-5000 1000-2500

Ralph Lauren 500-1000 1000-2000 1500-8000 700-3000 1500-3000

TOMMY HILFIGER 500-1000 500-1500 1000-7000 700-3000 300-2500

3.3. FILA 55.39

10.8% 5.13 12.3%

2012-2018

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38 39

FILA + FILA 1911

2009 FILA

FILA 25 45

FILA RED FILA WHITE FILA BLUE FILA ORIGINALE

2009

FILA 2010-2018

29.39%

40 FILA

Wind

FILA

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4.

60%

6 15%

41 42

Wind Wind

30%

50%

43 44

Wind Wind

;

2017

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45 46

Wind Wind

47

Wind

ROE ROE= * /(1- )

ROE

48 ROE 49

Wind Wind

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50

Wind

5.

1 2018

764 120 100 100 2021

1084 2018 1500-2000

2 2014-2018

2016 1

11.54% 2018 2018 112

764 17 18 40 20

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

567.28 649.68 753.61 842.01 1,054.43 1,475.75

yoy

14.53% 16.00% 11.73% 25.23% 39.96%

520 559 601 602 652 764

1.09 1.16 1.25 1.40 1.62 1.93

yoy

6.54% 7.89% 11.54% 15.62% 19.44%

39 42 1 50 112

yoy

7.50% 7.51% 0.17% 8.31% 17.18%

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3

2019-2020 29.42% 23.79% 42.07%

31.09% 2019 PE 18.7X

15

2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

1,054 1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839

(+/-)% 25.23% 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%

180 292 415 544 690

(+/-)% 35.92% 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%

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6.

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[Table_Forcast] 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

543 962 1,424 2,032 292 415 544 690

60 60 60 60 14 19 24 28

104 99 122 148 38 0 0 0

622 603 744 864 0 0 0 0

483 540 574 616 0 0 0 0

1,813 2,263 2,924 3,720 -14 0 0 0

10 10 10 10 -158 -16 -106 -110

0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0

9 9 9 9 171 418 462 608

112 112 112 112 -216 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 -136 0 0 0

307 307 307 307 381 412 621 760

2,119 2,570 3,230 4,027

0 0 0 0 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E

158 95 123 146

181 245 307 364 1.61 2.29 3.00 3.81

0 0 0 0 8.98 11.27 14.27 18.08

479 515 631 737 0.94 2.31 2.55 3.36

0 0 0 0

11 11 11 11 39.96% 29.42% 23.79% 20.10%

11 11 11 11 62.16% 42.07% 31.09% 26.86%

490 526 642 748

1,628 2,043 2,588 3,278 63.28% 63.71% 64.19% 65.23%

1 1 1 1 19.80% 21.74% 23.02% 24.32%

2,119 2,570 3,230 4,027

19.55 18.88 18.90 19.00

2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 327.06 317.45 320.65 319.58

1,476 1,910 2,364 2,839

542 693 847 987 23.13% 20.46% 19.86% 18.57%

15 20 24 29 3.78 4.40 4.63 5.05

14 19 24 28 2.28 2.94 3.18 3.60

438 535 650 781

108 117 137 159 29.67% 28.00% 27.50% 27.50%

-7 -19 -30 -43

7.31% 6.10% 5.80% 5.60%

0 0 0 0 -0.49% -0.99% -1.26% -1.52%

14 0 0 0

337 488 640 812 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

6 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

344 488 640 812

51 73 96 122 P/E 20.72 21.01 16.03 12.63

292 415 544 690 P/B 3.72 4.27 3.37 2.66

292 415 544 690 P/S 5.91 4.57 3.69 3.07

0 0 0 0 17.95% 20.32% 21.03% 21.06%

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7

“ ”

R3 A B

AA ABS

“ ”

6 15%

6 5% 15%

6 -5% 5%

6 5% 15%

6 15%

6

6

6

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http://www.nesc.cn 400-600-0686

6666 130119

28 D 100033

729 200127

1 2 24D 518000

021-20361121 13564972909 [email protected]

021-20361229 17717370432 [email protected]

021-20361258 18221628116 [email protected]

021-20361267 13956071185 [email protected]

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021-20361121 18516562656 [email protected]

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010-58034553 18515018255 [email protected]

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