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i&fe"

Next Steps for TeamThree

assified -- Commission Sensitive

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OrganizationUltimate objectives and summer plansIndividual components of overallobjectives, including timelines

Possible hiccupsUnclassified -- Commission Sensitive 2)

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Our Ultimate VisionThe final monograph will have "chapters" addressing:The evolution of U.S. counterterrorism strategyCounter-terrorism instruments and key allies

Policies toward safe havens and permissiveenvironments where al-Qa'ida flourishedHow counterterrorism policy changed in theimmediate aftermath of September 1 1The posture of the United States todayEach of these key questions raises a host of smallerquestions, perhaps deserving of a small monographWe will also contribute to overalj Commissionrecommendations regarding policy

Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive

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Goals for this summerRequest, obtain, and review key documentsConduct initial interviews and initiate requests for seniorinterviewsBegin identifying recommendationsPrepare interim products and/or drafts of selectedelements of broader plansInterim product examples: reviews of overall U.S.counterterrorism policy from 1993-1998 and same for1970-1993 (drafted by outside consultants)^r>Draft product example: assessment of diplomacy as/acounterterrorism instrumentPurpose: identify procedures, problems, style, and5 y other issues as early as possible

All products will be revised as more informationUnclassified -- Commission Sensitive

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Overall Research PlanSeptember January March May

Drafts or interim products toPZ and CK for initial review Plan for evaluatingposture todayInitial drafts toPZ and CK

Mid-level nterviewrequests submitted

Inter-views

Additional drafts or interimproducts to PZ and CKSubmit list ofrecommen-dations

Final draft toPZ and CK

"Informationalinterviews"completed

Seniorinterviewrequestssubmitted

Mid-level nterviewscompleted Senior interviewscompletedFinal follow-up requests submitted

DocsAll major requests

jubmitted Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive 5)

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Strategy: Key IssuesHow did U.S. counterterrorism policy evolve,particularly after the 1998 Embassy bombings?

Were there gaps in U.S. strategy?What factors hindered policy makers?Did policy makers try to expand their options?

How did policy change in the immediateaftermath of September 11 ?

Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive 6)

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Research Plan: StrategyJune July August Septemberc Timeline of key meetings,including classified meetings Iontribute to overallrecommendations list

Inter-views

Timeline fromunclassified readings

-*

Conduct "informational"interviews

Prepare interview invitations forkey mid-level officials j

Draft and edit report onearly stages of U.S.CT policy

Prepare invitations forkey senior officials

Submit doc requests tokey policy agenciesDocs

Review JIS filesand CIA timeline

Completeunclass readings

Review initialdocs from NSC J

Submit follow-uprequests J

Review initial docs receivedfrom other key agenciesUnclassified -- Commission Sensitive

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Safe Havens and PermissiveEnvironments: Key IssuesHow did the United States address al-Qa'ida safe havens in Sudanand Afghanistan?Review al-Qa'ida's presence in combination with other teamsU.S. goals in addition to counterterrorism in these countriesPoints of leverage, if any

Use of different counterterrorism instruments- responses andeffectivenessDid the U nited States address "permissive environments"?Which countries were vital for al-Qa'ida (coordinate with TeamOne)?Did the United States confront these governments? How?How did these countries respond? W ere there gaps in U.S.strategy and, if so, how were they addressed?How did policy toward safe havens and perm issive environmentschange in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ?Recommendations for current policy8Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive

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Research Plan: Safe HavensJune July August September

Contribute to overallrecommendations list7.

Conduct "informational"interviews

Prepare interviewinvitations for keymid-level officials

Draft on aspect of the safehaven question (e.g. one

country other than Afghanistan)

Inter-viewsSubmit doc requests tokey agencies

Docs

Review JIS files.and CIA timeline

Complete unclassreadings

c Prepare invitations forkey senior officialsReview initial docs receivedfrom ke y agencies

Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive Submit follow-up 1 9requests _ _ ' v

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Counterterrorism Instruments: Key IssuesReview available instrumentsInitial list: diplomacy; criminal law; cov ert action; renditions; financialrestrictions; disruptions; military operations; public diplomacy; andsanctionsWhy were certain instruments used?Why w ere others considered but not selected?

Were others not considered at all? If so, why?What were the limits of each instrument?W hat was the impact of each instrument?Support from key countries (especially Saudi Arabia and Pakistan):Types of support sought and limits on requestsType of support provided"Tradeoffs" of supportKey allies and important countries not (or partially) on boardHow did the use of instruments change after September 11?Identify lessons learned and recommendations

1 0Unclassified -- Comm ission Sensitive

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Research Plan: InstrumentsJune July August September

Contribute to overallrecommendations list

Prepare interview invitationsfor keymid-level officials jDraft on one instrument(e.g. diplomacy) and/orone key country

Inter-viewsConduct "informational"interviews

DocsReview JIS filesand CIA timeline J

Prepare invitations forkey senior officials

Submit follow-uprequests

Submit doc requests tokev policy age nciesReview initial docs receivedfrom key agencies

Unclassified -- Com mission Sensitive 11

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*',

Possible Hiccups Clearances for keystaff Delays in access to documents; may

prevent early drafting Delays inaccess to interviewees,particularly at the senior level Computers, phones, etc.

Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive 12