Systems modeling is as essential component of systems

research - past and planned cases in Africa

Peter Carberry

CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship

Outline

• AusAID Food Security through Rural Development

Initiative

• Farming systems research

• Farming systems modelling

• Current status

Food Security through Rural Development

Initiative

• Australian Government commitment

• $464 million to encourage greater food security globally

• $100 million for Africa

• 4 years (but re-occurring)

• African Food Security Initiative

1. Increasing agricultural productivity through increased investments in agricultural research and development;

2. Improving rural livelihoods by helping to address market failures that hinder economic development in rural areas; and

3. Building community resilience by supporting social protection mechanisms that enable vulnerable people to withstand shocks.

• Administered through AusAID

Agricultural research and development in

Africa

1. Sustainable Intensification of Maize-Legume Farming

Systems for Food Security in Eastern and Southern

Africa (SIMLESA) ($20M)

• Funding via ACIAR’s project development process

• CIMMYT led

• Australian partners

2. AusAID/CSIRO African Food Security Initiative ($30M)

• AusAID support for CAADP Pillar 4

• CSIRO led

• African partners

• CORAF in West Africa

• BecA in East Africa

SIMLESA, 2010

SIMLESA collaboration

University of Sydney (Risk management)

University of Western Sydney (Socio economics)

Charles Sturt University (Policy & innovation)

University of Southern Queensland (Climate change)

African Universities

IRI

TIAR

AusAid

CSIRO

4 PhD scholarships

granted

More productive,

resilient and

sustainable

smallholder

maize-legume

practices, tactics

and strategies

Aims at increasing farm-household food security and productivity, in the context of

climate risk and change, through the development of more resilient, profitable and

sustainable maize-legume farming systems

Scaling out and capacity building

Socio-economic

characterization

Input and output

value chain

Whole farm

resource

allocations

Improved range

of maize and

legume varieties

available for

smallholders

30% increase in maize yields and 30% reduction in risk

500,000 households over the next 10 years

SIMLESA aims

AusAID/CSIRO African Food Security Initiative

• CORAF/WECARD

• Dakar, Senegal

• 22 member States

• Mandated to coordinate the implementation of

CAADP Pillar IV in West and Central Africa

• BecA

• Nairobi, Kenya

• Managed by ILRI (International Livestock Research

Institute)

• Shared agricultural research and biosciences

development platform

Operational Plans

Programmes

Projects

National Plans of

ARIUniv.

MinistriesNGOCSO

CORAF/WECARD NASRO CARDESAASARECA

• Empowerment• Pluralism in delivery• Subsidiarity• Evidence-based approaches• Sustainability• Integration of

Research/extension• MIS• Cost sharing• Integration of gender

Strategic Plans

NEPADPillar I - Land Management

Pillar II - Rural Infrastructure

Pillar III - Food Supply

CAADP Pillar IV

CAADP

Agricultural Research and Dissemination

FAAP FARAWCA RECs

Research agenda and current/future

projects

• BecA:

• Food and Nutrition Science (FANS) scoping study

• Analyse food systems (farm to consumption)

• Identify opportunities within value-chains

• Animal health

• Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) disease control

• African swine fever

• Capacity building/Challenge Fund

• CORAF/WECARD:

• 5 projects being developed

• 3 farming systems focus in the sub-humid to semi-arid zone

• Seeds systems project – based in Mali

• Animal Health Project – Ticks and tick-borne diseases

Australian RDE expertise highly relevant to

dryland agriculture in Africa

• Similarity in environments• Shared constraints to biological productivity

• Agricultural research and extension• Systems science and modelling

• Conservation agriculture

• Livestock/crop integration

• Water management (droughts and flooding)

• Eucalypt and Acacia based forestry

• Participatory extension models including private sector and NGOs

• Natural resource management• Community based approaches to NRM

• Rangelands and biodiversity science

• Climate science• Seasonal climate forecasting

• Economic and policy research• Analysis of market and trade liberalisation

• Research infrastructure and institutional arrangements• Collaborative research centres

• Australian scientists with overseas research experience

Farming Systems Research – Collinson 1982

On-farm

research

On-station

research

Operations

research

Rigour v’s relevance?

Archives Stories NONSCIENCE Myths

Personal opinion Legends

Surveys Case studies SCIENCE

On-farm demonstrations

On-farm trials

Simulations

On-station expts.

Control Envir. expts.

Low High

Currency / Relevance

High

Data integrity / Rigour

Low

Bonoma 1985, Crookston 1994

A shifting emphasis in research?

Archives Stories NONSCIENCE Myths

Personal opinion Legends

Surveys Case studies SCIENCE

On-farm demonstrations

On-farm trials

Simulations

On-station expts.

Control Envir. expts.

Low High

Currency / Relevance

High

Data integrity / Rigour

Low

Bonoma 1985, Crookston 1994

Participatory research (1994)

Okali, Sumberg and

Farrington, 1994

Rhetoric and reality

• Honest in admitting to being long on

rhetoric and short on achievements

• High time costs of participation

• Dependence on qualitative data

• Difficulties in data & analysis

• Poor evaluation

• Difficulties in publication

• Lack of recognition & rewards

• 11 case studies … on-ground impacts

mostly promises

Participatory research (2003)

Pound, Snapp, McDougall

and Braun (eds) 2003

Uniting science &

participation

• Now lots of participatory methodologies

promoted (>30)

• The promise of bringing “practical reality

to bear on generalised concepts”

• Problems of evaluation, data analysis &

publication persist

• A call for organisational learning &

change

• 23 case studies … the rhetoric

continues?

A preferred shift in emphasis?

Archives Stories NONSCIENCE

Myths

Personal opinion Legends

Surveys Case studies SCIENCE

On-farm demonstrations

On-farm trials

Simulations

On-station expts.

ControlEnvir. expts.

Low High

Currency / Relevance

High

Dataintegrity/ Rigour

Low

A proposed methodology

Archives Stories NONSCIENCE

Myths

Personal opinion Legends

Surveys Case studies SCIENCE

On-farm demonstrations

On-farm trials

Simulations

On-station expts.

ControlEnvir. expts.

Low High

Currency / Relevance

High

Dataintegrity/ Rigour

Low

Participatory Action

Research & systems

modelling

Carberry, P.S., 2001. Are science rigour and industry relevance both achievable in

participatory action research? Agricultural Science, 14:22-28

APSRU’s systems approach

Farming Systems Research – Collinson 1982 APSRU Strategic Plan 1991 -1995

Agricultural Production Systems

Simulator (APSIM)

The soil provides a central focus, crops, seasons and managers come and go, finding the soil in one state and leaving it in another

Simulates:

mechanistic growth of crops, pastures, trees, weeds ...

dynamics of populations (eg. weed seedbank)

key soil processes (water, solutes, N, P, carbon, pH)

surface residue dynamics & erosion

dryland or irrigated systems

range of management options

crop rotations + fallowing + mixtures

short or long term effects

one or two (multi-point) dimensions

high software engineering standards

language independent (VENSIM™ module maker)

now includes pests nor diseases

links to livestock modules

www.apsim.info

Example APSIM applications

• cereal-legume rotations (Probert et

al.1995)

• ley farming systems (Carberry et al.

1996)

• intercropping systems (Carberry et al.

1996)

• alley farming systems (Nelson et al.

1998)

• drought policy formation (Keating &

Meinke 1998)

• erosion impacts (Connolly et al. 1998)

• genetic trait identification (Robertson et

al. 1999)

• seasonal climate forecasting (Hammer

et al. 1999)

• on-farm trial analyses (Robertson et al.

1999)

• climate change impacts (Howden et al., 1999)

• agribusiness value chain (Brennan et al., 2000)

• tree windbreak systems (Meinke et al. 2001)

• deep drainage assessment (Keating et al., 2001)

• soil acidification (Verburg et al., 2001)

• risk assessment of GMO (Smith et al. 2001)

• effluent irrigation (Brennan et al., 2002)

• agroforestry systems (Huth et al., 2002)

• crop-weed competition (Keating et al. 1999)

• smallholder farming systems (Carberry, 2004)

• biodiversity assessment (Huth et al., 2008)

Need examples of successful PAR

achieving science innovation & impact

… 17 years of action research

ACIAR Kenyan Project (1985-1992)

Modelling was a “new frontier” in 1985

Observed grain yields – average 1990-1999

-

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

A Bare fallo

w

B Traditional

C Intercrop

D 50% mulch

E Medium in

put

F Reduced til

lage

G High in

put

Ave

rag

e g

rain

yir

ld (

t/h

a)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Predicted averages : 1957 – 1988

Keating, Wafula & Watiki 1990, Climatic Risk Symposium

Example - Linking Logics workshop

• Initiative of ICRISAT /

CIMMYT

• October 2001, Zimbabwe

• Hosted at Jusanani

carpentry workshop owned

by farmer Richard

Ndimande

• Mkubazi School, PO Box

44, Tsholotsho.

• Between 30-40 farmers

attended each day

Peter Carberry, Christy Gladwin and Steve Twomlow, 2004. Linking

Simulation Modelling to Participatory Research in Smallholder Farming

Systems. ACIAR Proceedings No. 114. pp32-46

What worked?

Why did farmers give the simulations

credibility?

What indicators of impact?

How to scale up?

Follow-on project with ICRISAT -

Using systems simulation to

enhance the effectiveness of

agricultural change agents in the

southern African semi-arid tropics

(SAT)

Forward projections – with APSIM

New initiatives informed by past efforts

Systems simulation across different scales

QTL map for SorghumQTL map for Sorghum

Broadened spatial scale

gene crop farm catchment region

Farming system

Profitability

Crop

YIELD

Traits

… genes in environments

Plant Traits

Cell

Nucleus

Genessubstrate

Traitsenzymes

products

• Interaction across scales:

– Environment signals

– Gene responses = trait expression

Hammer, G., Sinclair, T., Chapman, S. and van Oosterom, E. (2004). On systems thinking, systems

biology and the in silico plant. Plant Physiology 134: 909-911.

Paddock Manager

Report

Soilwat

SoilN

Erosion

Surface Residue

E

N

G

I

N

E

Crops

Climate

Forecast

Economics

Farm Manager

APSIM

APSFARM

Livestock

Pastures

Irrigation

Paddock Manager

Report

Soilwat

SoilN

Erosion

Surface Residue

E

N

G

I

N

E

Crops

Climate

Forecast

Economics

Farm Manager

APSIM

APSFARM

Livestock

Pastures

Irrigation

… analysing decisions at the whole farm

level

APSFARM

Rodriguez et al., 2009

The normal, the novel & the natural

Growth, water use and life form analysis of cropping, novel agroforestry systems and native woodland

Systems simulation of the normal, novel &

natural

Increased boundaries to the biophysical system

1.5 m

50 m

Soil Water

Extraction

… below ground dynamics in multi-point

agroforestry systems

Neil Huth 2007

Combining bio-physical & ecological models

Woodlot Age (years)

0 10 20 30 40

Ha

bita

t C

om

ple

xity S

co

re

0

3

6

9

Trees Only

Trees + Grass

Trees + Grass + Shrubs

Edge Trees Only

Area (ha)

1 10 100 1000S

pecie

s0

10

20

30

40

500 to 5

5 to 10

10 to 15

15

Habitat complexity

score

Species richness

Ecologic

al model

APSIM

Tradeoffs in

economic &

ecological

performance

Neil Huth 2009

In summary

• AusAID Food Security through Rural Development

Initiative represents a significant re-entry of Australia

in supporting African RDE

• Significant that agriculture RDE is a key delivery

platform

• Systems modelling will be a key contribution from

Australia