Systems Analysis in Asia

Systems Analysis in Asia

OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE

Systems Analysis in Asia Booklet of Poster Abstracts


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE

2 – SYSTEMS ANALYSIS IN ASIA – www.iiasa.ac.at

Poster 1

Title: Effects of Environmental Protection Policies on Nutrient Export in the Yangtze River Basin

Authors: Li Jincheng*, Peking university; Yong Liu, Peking university; Ting Tang, International Institute for

Applied Systems Analysis;

Theme: Defining systems analysis methods and using them in the Asian context.

Abstract:

The study has constructed a 0.1° nutrient production model of China (CEIN) with county-level data in 2017.

On the basis, the study refined the existing MARINA model for the Yangtze River Basin, and the nutrient

export was calculated and calibrated. The effects of different environmental management policies, such as

“Comprehensive Planning of Yangtze River Basin (2012-2030)”, were analyzed on the nutrient export. The

results illustrated that the hot spots were mainly concentrated in the middle and estuary of the Yangtze River

basin. The central region was relatively developed in agriculture and industry and had a large population. The

estuary was economically developed, mainly in the tertiary industry, with a high level of urbanization and a

large yield of nutrients. Non-point source was the main source of pollution. For nutrient loading production,

cropland, livestock, soil erosion was more than 50%, 20% and 10% of non-point source respectively. and

poultry breeding was more than, soil erosion is more than. In terms of contributions to nutrient flux, the

proportion of cropland non-point sources increased further, exceeding 60%, while the proportion of livestock

and poultry breeding and soil erosion decreased. For the whole basin, cropland-related environmental

protection policies were more effective in controlling nutrient pollution. For TN, a 25% increase in manure

recovery would reduce nutrient flux in the watershed by 12%. The nutrient fluxes were reduced by 24%

upstream, 9% midstream and 13% downstream. For total phosphorus, a 25% increase in livestock and

poultry manure recovery would reduce nutrient flux in the watershed by 8%. The nutrient fluxes were

reduced by 7% in the upstream, 4% in the midstream and 8% in the downstream. The improvement of

treatment standards of sewage treatment plants had little effect on nutrient flux. For TN, only 0.06% flux is

reduced, and for TP, only 0.05% flux is reduced.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 2

Title: Coastal resilience: land-water-biodiversity nexus

Authors: Yangfan Li*, State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, Fujian Institute for Sustainable

Oceans, College of the Environment & Ecology, Xiamen University


Abstract:

Coping with climate change and urbanization impacts, managing coastal cities and urbanization from

increasing human activities in coastal areas is a critical issue in balancing global ocean conservation and blue

economy. Resilience-based integrated coastal management (R-ICM) was presented as an effective, holistic,

ecosystem-based and knowledge-based approach to manage the expansion of human footprints in coastal

areas, coordinating land and sea spatial planning to achieve coastal urban regional resilience and provide

guidance for the transformation. Resilience focuses on the dynamic changes (e.g. regime shifts) of nonlinear

systems, it helps to measure the multiple factors and identify complex pressures and potential risks to coastal

areas. We build a new resilience framework based on Land-Water-Biodiversity (LWB) Nexus, which enables

the measurement of coastal resilience on multi-scale and the transformation of coupled social-ecological

system under the impact of coastal human activities (e.g. land reclamation). We further established a system

resilience measurement model based on stress-strain curve to reveal the new mechanism of system resilience

regression caused by specific resilience factors such as impervious surface, size of land reclamation, size of

built-up area. Our researches have been included in Blue Paper named as Integrated Ocean Management,

commissioned by High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy. Some research outcomes were further

applied to the eastern coastal region of China based on the experiences from the pilot cities, including

Xiamen, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Haikou, Lianyungang and Taihu Lake watershed. We now focus on Guangdong-

Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the urban agglomeration on the west coast of the Taiwan Straits and

countries on the Silk Road. We aim to adapt R-ICM to Chinese conditions and promote the international

development of ecological civilization theory.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 3

Title: Decarbonizing China’s Iron and Steel Industry from the Supply and Demand Sides for Carbon Neutrality

Authors: Ming Ren*, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University; Pantao Lu,

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering; Xiaorui Liu, College of Environmental Sciences and

Engineering, Peking University; M. S. Hossain, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking

University; Yanru Fang, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University; Tatsuya

Hanaoka, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental

Studies; Brian O’Gallachoir, Energy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Center, Environmental Research

Institute, University College Cork, Energy Engineering, School of Engineering, University College Cork, Co.;

James Glynn, Energy Systems Modeling, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University; Hancheng Dai

College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University


Abstract:

Iron and steel production in China contributes to 14% of China’s total energy-related CO2 emissions.

Decarbonizing the iron and steel sector will therefore play an important role in achieving the goal of carbon

neutrality. This study explored possible low-carbon transition pathways for China’s iron and steel industry to

achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. An integrated approach was developed that combined a computable

general equilibrium model and a bottom-up technology-selection module. The results indicated that although

energy-saving technologies can reduce CO2 emissions in the short term, in the long term, adopting

breakthrough technologies (e.g., carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen-based direct reduction

(DR)), increasing the share of scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production, and decarbonizing

upstream energy-supply sectors will be crucial for climate change mitigation. Hydrogen-based DR could be an

effective option for CO2 emission reduction in scenarios where CCS is not available, with its share increasing

to 23%–25% by 2050. System-wide cross-sector decarbonization can help achieve climate targets at lower

costs through flexible technology combinations and avoid carbon leakage into upstream energy-supply

sectors.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 4

Title: Probabilistic Estimation of the Spread of COVID-19 using a Proposed Compartmental Model, Monte

Carlo Method, and Bootstrap Sampling

Authors: Mahdi Shadabfar*, Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and Resilience Research, Department of

Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology; Mahsuli, M., Center for Infrastructure Sustainability and

Resilience Research, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology; Sioofy Khoojine, A.,

Department of Economics and Business Management, Yibin University; Hosseini, V.R., Institute for Advanced

Study, Nanchang University; Kordestani, H., Department of Civil Engineering, Qingdao University of

Technology


Abstract:

This paper presents a probabilistic model for estimating the spreading profile of COVID-19 in Thailand, taking

into account the effects of social distancing and vaccination. For this purpose, a compartmental model is built

in which the population is divided into nine mutually exclusive compartments, including susceptible,

insusceptible, exposed, infected, vaccinated, recovered, quarantined, hospitalized, and dead. The interaction

between the compartments is modeled in terms of conversion rate through a system of fractional partial

differential equations. Next, a Monte-Carlo based optimization method is proposed to fit the fractional

compartmental model to the actual COVID-19 data of Thailand collected from the World Health Organization.

Further, 40 optimal samples resulting from the optimization analysis are selected as model parameters. Then,

the bootstrap sampling method is employed to generate 10,000 samples via random permutations from the

selected model parameters. Next, by introducing the generated random dataset into the compartmental

model, 10,000 realizations of the system response are calculated over time. The dataset of system

realizations is then used to estimate the exceedance probability of the number of infected, recovered, and

dead cases over time. The resulting exceedance probability diagrams can immediately be used to estimate the

future level of disease transmission at a given acceptable risk.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 5

Title: China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

Authors: Hao Zhao*, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental

Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Chang, J., Zhejiang University; Havlík, P., International Institute for

Applied Systems Analysis etc.

Theme: Systems analysis in Asia to achieve the SDGs.

Abstract:

Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability

challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the

environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find

that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (+16%~+30% across all scenarios), would

domestically require 3~12 Mha of additional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting -2%~+16% growth in

agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected 15%~24% reliance on agricultural imports in

2050 would result in 90~175 Mha of agricultural land area and 88~226 Mt CO2eq yr-1of GHG emissions

virtually imported to China, which account for 26%~46% and 13%~32% of China’s global environmental

impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of world

would substantially depend on development of trade openness. Thus, to limit the negative environmental

impacts of its growing food consumption, besides domestic policies, China needs to also take responsibility in

the development of sustainable international trade.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 6

Title: To Achieve Sustainability through Biodiversity Conservation: A Case Study of Ranthambhore Tiger

Reserve

Authors: Bhanwar Vishvendra Raj Singh*, Department of Geography, Faculty of Earth Science, Mohanlal

Sukhadia University


Abstract:

Climate change has been connected to the endangerment and extinction of many flora and fauna. This rapid

and widespread phenomenon is extremely challenging for global biodiversity ecosystems and the future earth.

One of the prime threats to wildlife habitats, however, is climate change, as desertification and sea-level rise

could wipe out most of the limited territory that remains. One of the most vulnerable habitats is located in the

Ranthambhore, Rajasthan, India.

Meanwhile, tiger landscapes are significantly undervalued in global and national agendas by us. As a result,

degradation, fragmentation, human-wildlife conflicts, loss of natural habitats, and depletion of prey animals

have been rapidly increasing.

Meanwhile, we are building million dollars from the tiger conservation program, because the tiger is an

umbrella species in the ecosystem. Its conservation automatically ensures the conversation about flora and

fauna and the entire ecosystem is conserved.

The Ranthambhore Tiger reserve is capable of ironic natural capitals, biodiversity, and attractive beauty;

therefore, the region can provide a wide range of ecosystem services regarding supporting, provisioning,

regulating, and cultural services. But cultural services are most strong among all of them.

At present, the growing demand for these services has put an immense burden on the ecosystem, and under

such a scenario; eco-tourism is the best social, economic entrepreneurship for the sustainable development of

tiger territory.

The research would identify the geographical, social, economic indicators, which determine the thriving of

sustainable ecosystem services. As well as the main outcome of ecosystem services will provide a valuable

framework for analyzing and acting on the linkages between local people and authority other stakeholders

with their environment, which is based on inclusive, holistic, and sustainable development of human wellbeing

and future earth.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 7

Title: Global Land Use Change and Food Security Implications of China’s Bioenergy Development under 2060

Carbon Neutrality Target

Authors: Yazhen Wu*, Peking University; Andre Deppermann, International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis; Petr Havlík, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Ming Ren, Peking University;

Hancheng Dai, Peking University


Abstract:

Bioenergy would play an important role in China’s decarbonization toward the Paris Agreement targets.

However, the domestic and spillover impacts of rapid bioenergy developments in China for its 2060 carbon-

neutrality target have not been comprehensively investigated.

This study applied the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) developed by IIASA to explore the

impacts of different biomass production and import portfolios for China’s increased bioenergy demand under

the net-zero emission target. A series of stylized biomass trade scenarios were developed to quantify the

possible effects of rising import for short-rotation plantation biomass in China on global land-use change, GHG

emissions from land, food system, and implications on food security.

Our analysis indicates that pursuing high biomass production in any single region could lead to certain

sustainability concerns. For example, if the excess biomass for China’s increased demand is to be produced

and imported from South Asia, the number of undernourished people across the world could increase by 34

million in 2030 and 17 million in 2060, mostly in India. Importing more from Europe would lead to

significantly intensified competition for cropland in Latin America and Africa.

A more diversified importing portfolio with an optimized global allocation of biomass production could help

reduce the negative trade-offs. An optimized bioenergy import portfolio combined with stricter forest

regulation could fulfill the increased biomass demand for China, while simultaneously achieving food security

and forest protection targets, avoiding 32.6 million (or 17.5 million) cumulative undernourishment from 2030

to 2060 compared with the domestic production scenario (or a fixed global biomass trade scenario).

Besides, the induced land-use change and food security impacts are most severe in 2030 and 2040, possibly

due to population peaking and technology advances. Therefore, introducing biomass as a mitigation option on

large scales only after 2040 might be better timing for attaining multiple SDGs.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 8

Title: Adoption of rice auto seeding machinery benefits Asian urban food security in multiple ways

Authors: Yuquan Zhang*, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; McCarl, B, Texas A&M University; Li, Y, Shanghai

Jiao Tong University; Li, Q, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Cao, Z, Shanghai Jiao Tong University


Abstract:

Mechanization of agricultural production saves labor and increases output in general. In peri-urban areas,

smart mechanization has become increasingly a must for the agricultural sector, due to limited labor supply,

high wage rates, and prohibitive land opportunity costs. Amidst the background of rapid urbanization in Asia,

the rising bar to perform peri-urban agricultural activities presents threats to urban dwellers’ food security

(SDG2). This study takes Shanghai as a case study to explore how a new technology that auto-mechanizes

seed planting for rice production may influence urban food security. Sitting in the densely populated East

China, the metropolitan area of Shanghai has witnessed notable reductions in crop acreages during 2015 –

2019. To investigate the potential of the above-mentioned technology, this study employs the newly

developed Shanghai Agricultural Sector Model (SH-ASM) that covers 15 crops across 9 suburban districts. The

model simulates the decision-making of representative farmers regarding the land use allocation between

crops, under a sectoral market welfare optimization framework. Scenarios with varying levels of technology

diffusion for rice production are examined. Here we find that: 1) higher adoption rates increases rice

production, meanwhile releasing more labor for other enterprises such as oil crops and vegetables; 2) wider

technology diffusion also leads to greater savings of chemical inputs usage on an aggregated basis,

potentially ameliorating non-point source pollution. These results have implications for SDG2 and beyond.

First, improving the technical efficiency of rice production is of importance, especially for subsistence-oriented

farming households. Second, by saving labor hours and reducing physical demands, the introduction of rice

auto seeding machinery potentially releases labor for other opportunities such as vegetables and non-rural

employment. In turn, urban dwellers’ regular access to fresh produce could be better secured, and farming

households may diversify their income sources. Third, the stability of urban food supply would get improved.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 9

Title: Environmental and Health Benefits of Clean Heating Plan in Northern China

Authors: Wenjun Meng*, Peking University; Tao, S, Peking University

Theme: Systems analysis applied to sustainable energy transition and resilient urban growth.

Abstract:

North China has the highest regional levels of air pollution in the country due to intensive industrialization,

dense population, and its long heating season. The rapid transition from traditional fuels to LPG (liquefied

petroleum gas), biogas, and electricity for cooking, is resulting in much lower emissions. Still, solid fuels

remain a dominant energy source for heating. To address the issue, a campaign (Clean Heating Plan for

Northern China in Winter for 2017-2021) was launched to substitute electricity or pipeline-based natural gas

(PNG) for heating in northern China. The campaign was divided into two regions, one is focusing on the so

called 2+26 (Beijing, Tianjin, and 26 other municipalities in the surrounding area) region (R28), the other is

the rest 128 municipalities in northern China (R128). This study evaluates the impacts of the campaign on

rural residential energy use, emissions, ambient and indoor air quality, population exposure and health.

Although only a single penetration rate (60% for rural) was initially planned in R28 for all municipalities,

outcomes in the different municipalities varied considerably from 38% to 97%. And based on the progress

already made for R28, the factors that affected the penetration rates were quantified to develop an

intervention scheme with differentiated targets for R128. It evidenced that a differentiated scheme would be

more environmentally beneficial. Although the same number of rural households (40% for rural) can achieve

clean heating under both intervention scenarios, the proposed differentiated strategy can prevent 30 000 (23

000−34 000) premature deaths associated with residential heating annually compared to the 26 000 (21

000−31 000) premature deaths prevented under the fixed-rate scheme.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

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Poster 10

Title: Carbon neutrality turns water resource redline greener in China

Authors: Xiaoyu Liu*, Peking University; Hancheng, D, Peking university; Yong, L, Peking university;

Yoshihide, W, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Taher, K, International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis; Jinren, N, Peking university; Yan, C, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning; Pan, C,

Chinese Academy of social sciences; Chaoyi, G, Peking university


Abstract:

As the backbone of economy, industrial sectors use substantial amounts of energy and water, and play a vital

role in cutting carbon emissions and water withdrawal. This study uncovers how carbon reduction will benefit

or threaten industrial water savings across China’s 31 provinces by incorporating enterprise-level census

datasets into a macroeconomic general equilibrium model. The results show that while co-benefits exist for

most sectors and provinces, especially the power generation in the southern region. Overall, carbon

reductions aligned with the Carbon Neutrality target could achieve the great co-benefit by saving 38 km3

(24%) of national industrial water withdrawal by 2060. On the other hand, trade-offs would arise with the

industry relocation across China and excessive production from outdated capital stock, causing water demand

to rise, partially or even completely offsetting water savings. This study calls for stricter admittances and

restrictions of water-intensive industry expansion and preferential policies to further promote water-saving

technologies.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 11

Title: Probabilistic Framework for Evaluating the Seismic Resilience of Transportation Systems

Authors: Taghizadeh, M, Sharif University of Technology; Mojtaba Mahsuli*, Sharif University of Technology


Abstract:

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for evaluating the seismic resilience of transportation systems.

The framework quantifies the community resilience by integrating hazard models, risk models, and recovery

models within an agent-based simulation. In this framework, probabilistic models predict the occurrence and

intensity of earthquake hazard, damage and capacity of network components, network travel demand, and

economic, social, and socioeconomic consequences. The hazard models characterize the occurrence,

magnitude, and rupture location on the seismic sources, and consequently, the ground shaking and ground

failure at the location of network components as well as the components of other infrastructure systems.

Then, the risk models assess the initial post-hazard state of the community including the transportation

system. To this aim, a group of risk models predicts the damage of vulnerable components of the

transportation network, including bridges and tunnels, as well as the damage state of the building stock in

each urban block and the ensuing debris width in adjacent links. Moreover, another group of probabilistic

models compute the residual traffic capacity of network links given the damage state of bridges and tunnels

and the debris width. The travel demand of the network is then determined at different time periods in the

aftermath of the seismic event. Thereafter, given the modified capacity and demand of the network, the

traffic assignment model predicts the travel time in the links of the network. Given the travel time of each

link, the operation of transporting the injured to the hospital is simulated using an agent-based model.

Through this model, the social losses due to the delay in the transportation of the injured and the ensuing

health degradation and increase in fatalities are computed. The framework is showcased by a comprehensive

application to a virtual community comprising a population of 125,000, a portfolio of residential, commercial,

and industrial buildings, transportation system, and healthcare system subject to an earthquake.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 12

Title: Modeling pathways to low and zero CO2 emissions in China’s iron and steel industry and their impacts

on resources and energy

Authors: Shaohui Zhang*, School of Economics and Management, Beihang University and International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Bowen Yi; Fei Guo, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Theme: The future of systems analysis in Asia.

Abstract:

The increasing energy and material consumption associated with global economic growth has resulted in the need for more severe efforts at mitigating global climate change. The iron and steel industry consumes 8% of

energy and emits 7% of total CO2 globally. China’s iron and steel industry contributes to 15% of that country’s total CO2 emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore the possibility of net zero

emissions in the iron and steel industry in China to meet China’s goal of carbon neutrality before 2060. In the

study, the MESSAGEix–China iron and steel model was developed by integrating the process-based technology of the sector into the IIASA’s MESSAGEix framework to explore zero CO2 emission pathways and

their associated impacts on resources, energy in China’s iron and steel industry up to 2100. We found that there are multiple pathways to achieving zero CO2 emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry by the end

of the 21st century. The CO2 emissions decreased significantly between 2030 and 2060 due to the rapid

application of 100% scrap-based Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) and hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-EAFs steel-making technologies. However, by 2060, there will still be 70–360 Mt of CO2 emissions from

China’s iron and steel industry; consequently, carbon sink or negative emission technologies are required to offset this and achieve the country’s carbon neutrality goal. Furthermore, technologies for achieving zero

emissions differ widely in terms of their impacts on the consumption of materials and energy. Compared to the electric (ELE) scenarios, 25–40% of extra iron ore is consumed in the new national policy (NPS) scenarios

and the DRI scenarios, but 25–220% of scrap is required. At the same time, 20–150% more energy will be

saved in the ELE scenarios than in the NPS and DRI scenarios.


OCTOBER 20-22

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Poster 13

Title: Integrated System Modelling for Desirable Housing

Authors: Ghafory-Ashtiany, M., International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology; Amir

Shahmohammadian*, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch

Theme: Systems analysis applied to sustainable energy transition and resilient urban growth.

Abstract:

Housing is one of the most basic needs of communities. Buildings used for housing represent the highest

percentage of all buildings in communities, and this holds true at the state, country, and local scales. Safety

of a home, as the largest household's financial investment, has high impact on the financial and physical

resilience of a society; and its damage makes up a significant portion of disaster losses. Facts show that

access to desirable housing has been one of the biggest problems for governments in many developing

countries. Many governments have failed in solving the housing problem in their communities due to having

one-dimensional and traditional view of the housing issue. Beside the level of desirability, in general, the

desirable housing means: “Safe” against natural and human-made disasters (such as earthquakes, floods,

hurricanes), “Affordable” and “Acceptable Quality”. These criteria provide comfort and convenience for its

tenant and ensure the safety, resiliency and sustainable growth and development of the society. A closer

look at these two goals indicates that many parameters and variables are effective in achieving desirable

housing. Desirable housing has different social, political, economic, legal, and technical, and engineering

aspects, and such aspects are directly and indirectly related to each other. A change in one aspect may cause

a change in other aspects. Achieving desirable housing which involves many stakeholders with differences

objective have become a major challenge for many governments. Considering the variable parameters that

are effective in desirable housing and the existence of stakeholders with different goals, it can be stated that

desirable housing is a complex phenomenon. This paper presents an attempt to provide a comprehensive look

at housing issues in developing countries using the systemic thinking approach by examining all parameters

and their interactions with each other, in order to provide short-term and long-term solutions to achieve

desirable housing.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 14

Title: Food and feed trade has greatly impacted global land and nitrogen use efficiencies over 1961-2017

Authors: Zhaohai Bai*, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental

Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences; Ma, W. Hebei Agriculture University; Ma, L, Center for Agricultural

Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, The Chinese Academy of Sciences etc.

Theme: The future of systems analysis in Asia.

Abstract:

International trade of agricultural products has complicated and far-reaching impacts on land and nitrogen

use efficiencies. We analyzed the productivity of cropland and livestock and associated use of feed and

fertilizer efficiency for over 240 countries, and estimated countries’ cumulative contributions to imports and

exports of 190 agricultural products for the 1961-2017 period. Crop trade has increased global land and

partial fertilizer nitrogen productivities in terms of protein production, which equaled savings of 2270 M ha

cropland and 480 Tg synthetic fertilizer nitrogen over the analyzed period. However, crop trade decreased

global cropland productivity when productivity is expressed on an energy (per calorie) basis. Agricultural trade

has generally moved towards optimality, i.e. has increased global land and N use efficiencies during 1961-

2017, but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, mixed impacts of trade on resource use indicate the need

for re-thinking trade patterns and improving their optimality.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 15

Title: The relationship of energy-water-carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by the IEWC

model under low-carbon transitions

Authors: Yingying Liu*, Beijing university; He Lv, Shuqi Yan, Sha Chen, Beijing University of Technology


Abstract:

The availability and security of energy and water resources are two key factors in the Sustainable

Development Goals. With the industrialization process, the consumption of energy increases fast, resulting in

global warming by emitting carbon dioxide into the air. At the same time, there is a close relationship

between energy, water and carbon emissions. In order to exploring coherent and coordinated planning

policies which can achieve both climate change mitigation and sustainable development, this study builds an

integrated energy-water-carbon assessment (IEWC) model to simulate the energy, water and CO2 emissions

in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) under the policy scenario (PO) and low-carbon development

scenario (LC) from 2017 to 2050. The demand for water resources of energy transformation under different

scenarios are quantitatively analyzed and the synergistic impact of energy, water and carbon emissions are

explored. The results show that current policies are not enough to mitigate the continued growth in energy

demand, CO2 emissions, water demand in the BTH region. The LC scenario has a better effect on energy and

water conservation than the policy scenario. Compared to the PO scenario, the BTH region in the LC scenario

would save more than 28% of energy consumption and reduce by more than 46% of CO2 emissions, while its

energy sector would save more than 33% of water resources. At the same time, nutrification potential and

aquatic ecotoxicity will decrease by more than 12 % and 37 %.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

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Poster 16

Title: Systems Analysis for the Management of Mine Tailings in Small-Scale Gold Processing in Caraga

Region, Philippines

Authors: Mark Anthony Lavapiez*, Caraga State University; Balbin, A, Caraga State University; Varela, R,

Caraga State University; Balanay, R, Caraga State University; Halog, A, University of Queensland


Abstract:

Mine waste can contaminate the soil, air and water that eventually cause environmental hazards in nearby

ecosystems. In Caraga Region, Philippines, the impact of gold mining wastes has created social pressures as

wastes affect the health and safety of people. The mine tailings and wastewater are the major wastes in gold

processing posing hazards to the environment which can be magnified when the heavy metals in tailings

move to adjoining areas during heavy rains. Lead, cadmium and arsenic are among the most prevalent heavy

metals in mine tailings which can be toxic at high concentrations. This study, therefore, highlights the

ecological approaches in the development of a sustainable mine tailings management by utilizing the wastes

as raw materials for the production of innovative ceramic items and landscaping bricks. The approach includes

cleansing the tailings using green chemistry/green technology to separate the heavy metals from the soil part.

The extracted heavy metals from the tailings will be used for a specific purpose while the soil part is used for

innovative product development. Industrial ecology concepts have been adopted as the basis for the

approaches in configuring the mine tailings management framework. Industrial symbiosis and systems

thinking in managing gold processing waste are emphasized to address the issues relating to sustainability.

The applications of the concepts of industrial symbiosis and systems thinking to promote sustainable mine

tailings management are envisioned to provide sustainability in reducing the environmental hazards

associated with heavy metals from mine tailings and in providing economic benefits to the people in the host

mining communities.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 17

Title: Cost-optimized pathways to achieve the carbon neutrality and PM2.5 air quality targets in Southern

China

Authors: Xiaorui Liu*, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University; Fabian Wagner,

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Shaohui Zhang, International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis; Hancheng Dai, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University


Abstract:

China’s newly proposed carbon neutrality target in September 2020 puts provinces facing the challenge of

deep decarbonization because the country is still on a path towards peak carbon emissions in approximately

2030. At the same time, although significant results have been achieved in recent years in the prevention and

control of air pollution, the air quality situation remains serious, with PM2.5 concentrations as high as

34ug/m3 in 2020 even under the impact of the epidemic. How to achieve carbon neutrality and air quality

goals simultaneously in a cost-effective way is essential for China. This study explores cost-optimized

pathways for achieving the dual targets in the rapidly developing but unevenly balanced southern China

including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan, Jiangxi and Fujian provinces. We use a multi-model

assessment approach which consist of the macro-economic model (IMED|CGE), the GAINS model, multi-

objective cost optimization model and public health model (IMED|HEL) to investigate the costs and benefits of

achieving the carbon neutrality and the PM2.5 air quality goal. We found that in the baseline without carbon

emission constraint under the current control measures, all 6 provinces cannot achieve National Ambient Air

Quality Standard class I (15ug/m3) by 2050. Only by implementing the strictest control measures can it be

possible to approach the air quality level under the carbon neutral scenario, which will increase the control

cost by 62%. While in the Net zero carbon scenarios, Fujian, Guangxi, and Hainan are expected to reach the

WHO guidance value under the current control measures. The contribution of end-of pipe measures will

gradually decrease. In the long run, the transition of the transportation, industrial and energy structure in line

with the carbon neutrality target would lay an important foundation for further improvements in air quality.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 18

Title: Multiple Cropping System and Crop Structure Changes in China from 1980 to 2017

Authors: Minghao, Bai*, Watershed Science Laboratory, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,

Peking University; Yong, Liu, Watershed Science Laboratory, College of Environmental Sciences and

Engineering, Peking University; Hancheng, Dai, Laboratory of Energy & Environmental Economics and Policy,

Peking University


Abstract:

Large population base, insufficient arable land areas accompanied by land degradation, and limited water

resources with unbalanced spatio-temporal distribution all pose severe challenges to the agricultural

sustainable development in China. As an important means of intensive agricultural production, the multiple

cropping system not only improves the efficiency of water, land, and heat resources, but also greatly

improves food supply. In order to adapt to the rapid socio-economic development and climate change, the

spatio-temporal optimization of multiple cropping system is an important aspect of agricultural production in

China. However, the lack of long-term crop distribution dataset with high spatio-temporal resolution cannot

support us to provide accurate decision-making basis for agricultural sustainable development. Therefore, the

dataset - China Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Areas of Crops in the Cell-specific (5 arcmin) Cropland from

1980 to 2017 (MIRACLE) is developed. Under crop characteristics, cropland suitability, water available, and

temperature constraints, we used a spatio-temporal combination optimization method with crop growth

periods and crop areas as input variables to drive the area allocation of 17 crops. Based on the analysis of

dataset, it is found that the multiple cropping index of irrigated cropland in the multi-cropping zone showed a

downward trend from 1980 to 2017, but the area of irrigated cropland increased by years. It indicates food

production increase in China was by the area expansion rather than by intensity strengthening. And this shift

led to large potential cropland loss, which had increased sharply after 2000 and peaked in 2017 with a loss

around 15 MHa. In terms of crop structure, non-food crops proportion has significantly increased, and all non-

food crops showed an expansion trend in triple cropping system. In food crops, double-cropping rice were

gradually replaced by single-cropping rice, and the proportion of maize was also increased sharply.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 19

Title: Assessing strategies for reducing the carbon footprint of textile products in China under the Shared

Socioeconomic Pathways framework

Authors: Si-Yu Peng*, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Jing-Yu Liu, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Yong

Geng, Shanghai Jiao Tong University


Abstract:

To realize China’s target of carbon neutrality by 2060, the country’s domestic textile industry faces

tremendous pressure to reduce emissions. We assessed the potential of socioeconomic conditions and climate

policies for reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of textile products in China up to 2050 using a life

cycle assessment (LCA) approach and integrated assessment model (IAM) within the Shared Socioeconomic

Pathways (SSP) framework. The results showed that a combination of socioeconomic conditions and climate

policies can reduce annual carbon emissions by 89.1% and reduce accumulate emissions by 34.5% by 2050.

Among the strategies examined in this study, energy decarbonization and power conservation exhibited the

highest potential for reducing emissions. We also demonstrated the importance of improving industry

interconnectivity, developing textile recycling frameworks, and promoting sustainable consumption.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 20

Title: Modeling and predicting the effects of human developments on social-ecological systems (Case study:

Varjin Protected Area, Iran)

Authors: Kheirkhah Ghehi, Nasim* School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran,

Iran; Rahimi, L, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran; Malekmohammadi,

Bahram, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran


Abstract:

Human disturbances and habitat availability are strongly related to each other for species distribution and

abundance. Based on the Sustainable Development Goal 15 of the 2030 Agenda, “devoted to sustainable use

of terrestrial ecosystems and halting biodiversity loss,” in this research, we propose a framework to analyze

the habitat quality of the mountainous landscape by considering human disturbances. In Varjin protected

area, Iran, habitat loss due to human pressures is the main factor in the rapid decline of Ovis orientalis (wild

sheep) population. First, we identify the land uses and land covers (LULCs) in two different time series of

2000 and 2020 using the index-based and supervised approach. Land Use change is modeled for 2040 using

the cellular automata and Markov chain (CA–Markov) model. Then, the InVEST habitat quality model will be

applied to better understand complex feedback in human-ecological systems in the three mentioned time

series. In other words, present and future LULCs impacts on the habitat service (habitat quality) are mapped.

Finally, patches with high habitat quality change are identified for more intense conservation, and a habitat

conservation ranking map is developed. Our methodology provides a habitat-based conservation approach by

combining spatial-temporal analysis of LULC changes and habitat quality modeling. The results present a

procedure to identify habitat patches for conservation priorities and support decision-makers in the planning

development process. Considering the interactions between human development and quality of habitats,

special attention should be given to selecting habitat patches for conservation and restoration measures.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 21

Title: Presenting a framework for resource planning based on the ecosystem services concept

Authors: Balist, J, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran;

Malekmohammadi, Bahram*, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran


Abstract:

Today Asia and especially the middle east face different challenges, including population, natural resources,

water shortage, climate change, and other economic and social issues. Developing a comprehensive framework helps to manage these concerns and lead to the SDG’s. Based on the ecosystem services concept,

we presented a framework to identify the resources and their interactions. The population dynamics, water resource condition, climate change, and land use in a semi-arid area are applied to define this framework.

The Sirvan basin located on the west border of Iran in two Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces with 13,407 square kilometers, is selected as a case study. First, the population dynamics are detected. Then, land use

changes are identified and predicted for the future, spatially. Climate parameters changes are identified in the

past and predicted for the future, based on IPCC scenarios. Finally, the framework is equipped for decision-making by ecosystem services planning such as water yield, carbon storage and sequestration. The results

show that the population has grown by 59 percent from 1989 to 2020 and will grow by 25 percent by 2040, according to the most likely forecast scenario. The critical issue is the ratio of urban to the rural population,

which was about 30 to 70 in 1989 and 70 to 30 in 2020. Climate change in the last three decades has caused

a significant decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature. This trend will continue in the future, temperature will increase by 2.25 degrees and precipitation will decrease 10% by 2040. Accordingly, water

yield will be reduced, and water scarcity would be increased, especially in residential areas. Based on the population growth, land-use dynamics, climate changes, and their interactions, we proposed strategies to land

developments such as cities, industries, infrastructures and dams in line with adaptions, resilience, and sustainable development goals.


OCTOBER 20-22

2021

IGSNRR, CHINESE

ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

IIASA

REGIONAL

CONFERENCE


Poster 22

Title: Time series analysis of the co-evolution of humans and water from socio-hydrologic perspectives: a

case study of the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin, Iran

Authors: Behzad Rahnama*, Tarbiat Modares University; Nasiri Saleh, F, Faculty of Civil and Environmental

Engineering; Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran; Koosheshi, M, Department of Demography, Faculty of

Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; Nasseri, M, School of Civil Engineering, College of

Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran


Abstract:

Drought and the destruction of wetlands and rivers in Iran indicate the poor state of the water resources and

water crisis, one of the main obstacles to achieving sustainable development. In Tashk and Bakhtegan lakes, excessive agricultural development as the most critical anthropogenic activity has increased pressure on the

watershed system due to livelihood issues. The trend coincidence with the droughts of the 2000s dried out the lakes and decreased the inflow. Indeed, development plans have been balanced regardless of regional

capacity.

Socio-hydrology seeks to change conventional modeling approaches by observing, understanding, and predicting future pathways of co-evolution of human-water coupled systems. Before developing the socio-

hydrological model of the catchment area, understanding the water-human system's state can lead to considering the model's influential factors.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the status of the Tashk-Bakhtegan semi-arid basin from a socio-hydrological perspective using a time series analysis of available data. For this purpose, the socio-hydrological

system of the basin is classified into four subsystems: meteorology and hydrology, population, agricultural

economics, and ecology. The data analysis period is from 1996 to 2016. Due to the government's supportive policies for wheat production, competition has been held between farmers in different parts of the basin to

produce more crops. Our results show that Land-use change and increased cultivated areas after the drought of 2008 have not had

the same trend in all areas. This issue is highlighted when the behavior of different areas is evaluated along

with the lakes' MNDWI index. In general, the data analysis shows no dominant approach to environmental challenges in different areas of the basin. In some parts of the basin, the short-term interests of individuals

are preferred to the long-term benefits of society.

Systems Analysis in Asia

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