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Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for Complex Issues Xijin Tang Institute of...
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Transcript of Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for Complex Issues Xijin Tang Institute of...
Systemic Thinking to Developing a Meta-Synthetic Support for
Complex Issues
Xijin TangInstitute of Systems Science
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080 P.R.CHINA
16th JISR-IIASA Workshop on Methodologies and Tools for Complex System Modeling and Integrated Policy Assessment
July 15-17, 2002, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 2
Contents
• Approaches to Complex Problems Solving
• Meta-Synthesis Method
• Developing Meta-Synthetic Tool for Complex Problem Solving
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 3
Customers
Man-Machine Meta-Synthetic Support for Macroeconomic Decision Making A Major Project by Natural Science Foundation
of China (1999-2003 ) Computerized Support for Comprehensive
Assessment of Weapon System A Defense Innovation Project by Chinese
Academy of Sciences ( 2001-2002)
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 4
Complex Problems
• Socioeconomic Problem• Sustainable Development• Evaluation of large project especially R&D
Projects
Semi-Structured or Unstructured problemsOpen Complex Giant System (Qian, 1990)
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 5
Purposes
When facing unknown problems, – does current framework of resources (Models,
Knowledge) still work?– how to utilize current framework of knowledge and
models? – how to integrate current resources ? – how to create new knowledge or models based on
experts’ wisdom and ready framework of models with new data and information?
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Approaches to Complex Problem Solving
• Hard System Approaches
• Soft System Approaches
Hard OR vs. Soft OR
Hard System Analysis vs. Soft System Analysis
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Modeling Strategic Problem
• Strategic Choice (J. K. Friend)
• Soft Systems Methodology (P. Checkland)
• Journey Making (previously known as SODA & Cognitive Mapping) developed by Colin Eden and colleagues at the Universities of Bath and Strathclyde
• Dialog Mapping
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 8
Comparisons between Hard and Soft System
Approaches
Hard system approach
systematic world
end-means scheme
optimization satisfaction
content-oriented
positive-empirical models
do the thing right
Soft system approach• systemic mind • participation/debate• learning satisfying • process-oriented• interpretive methods • do the right thing
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Modern Oriental System Approaches
• Shinayakana system approach (Sawaragi, etc. Japan, 90s) – i-System: Intelligence, Imagination, Involvement, Integrat
ion and Intervention
• Meta-synthesis from qualitative to quantitative approach (Qian, et al. China, 90s)– Hall for Workshop of Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWM
SE)
• Wu-li Shi-li Ren-li System Approach (Gu, et al. 90s)• Spiral System Methodology (Wang, China, 90s)
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 10
Systems Approach to Problem-Solving
Cultural Facet
Technological Facet
Systemic Facet
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Meta-Synthesis Method
• Above meta-analysis method• Data, information, models, knowledge• From qualitative (expert knowledge and wisdom) to
quantitative (quantitative analysis)• Making full use of breaking advances in IT• Formulating confident hypothesis vs. To be
precisely tested, verified, and validated. • Workshop or Seminars for discussion and debate
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 12
A Practical Example
Research on Man-Machine cooperated Meta-Synthetic Engineering System Supporting Macro Economy Decision-Making
• A NSFC Major Project
• 12 units, > 50 people
• 4-year (99.06-03.06)
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 13
Project Organization
Master Coordinating Group (0)
Environment Group (1)
Economy Group (2)
Method Group (3)
KDD and Cognition Group (4)
ISS, CAS
XJTU
SHTU
BNU
Tsinghua
BISE
IP, CAS
IA, CAS BIIC
RMU
SDPC
HUST IA, CAS
Over=all Design Group
CSM'2002, IIASA [email protected] 14
Issues during Project Implementation
• Multiple views, multi-institution involvement, multiple disciplines
• Lack coordinating endeavors
• Lack of actionable framework Utilization of ready resources Bottom-up research achievements
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Some Methods and Computerzied Support
• Brainstorming
• Delphi
• Voting
• AHP
• Other MCDM methods
• Nominal Group Techniques
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Final Product?
Databases,
Methods,
Models,
Tools,
Halls for Meta-synthesis
Input
?
Output
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What will NSFC see?
Meta-Synthesis Practice
– Aggregation of resources
– One centralized hall / component-based
– Distributed rooms / agent-based
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Functions
• Communication, Collaboration and Consensus building
• Group Thinking
• Group Decision Making
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Group Work Activities
Resolution
Collaboration
ConsensusNew Knowledge
Various Knowledge
Various Issues
Communication
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Divergent and Convergent Thinking
Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking
Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis
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Divergent Thinking Convergent Thinking
Knowledge Creation Knowledge Synthesis
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Collaborative Thinking
Cooperative Thinking
Individual Thinking
IndividualThinking
Individual Thinking
Group as a Thinking
Entity
Group Thinking Model
Mase, et al .(1998)
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Group 3
Main Room (IA)
Discussion Room (XJTU) Discussion
Room (HUST)
Discussion Room (ISS)
Room Beijing (BISE)
Models Tools
DB
Economic Models (SJTU)
Group 4
Group 2
KDD Models (Tsinghua)
Economic Models (BIIC)
System Reconstruction
Model (ISS)
Group 1
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Group Argumentation Template
• Electronic Brainstorming Room (BAR)– Personal Viewer– Common Viewer (Seminar Blackboard)– Information View (Searching Engine)
• Automatic Affinity Diagramming
• Nominal Group Technique (NGT)
Common Viewer
Personal View
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