System or Technology Analysis Methodology
Transcript of System or Technology Analysis Methodology
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Lecture:Systems Analysis Methodologies
Dr.JohnC.Wright
MIT
- PSFC
28SEP2010
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Introduction Outline
OUTLINE
Scopingstudy
Systemsanalysis- increasing
detail
Lifecycleanalysis
Simulationmodels
Riskanalysisanduncertainty
How
are
all
these
connected?
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Introduction Outline
INTRODUCTION
Manyissuesforsustainability requiringbalance
Weneedtoquantifyto
proceed
Deal
with
complexity
and
uncertainty
Thisisthegoal“Systems
Analysis”
End
result
often
involves
very,
verylargecomputercodes
Howdowemakesuch computermodels?
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Scopingstudy
SCOPINGSTUDYCHARACTERISTICS
We’llseemoreofthisinafuelcostsexamplenextweek.
Basicguidelinesforascopingstudy:
Highly
simplified
Mostlylinearanalysis- addseparatecostsVeryfewfeedbackeffects
Advantages
Relativelysimpletounderstand
Good
overall
picture Identificationofweaknesses
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SystemsAnalysis
SYSTEMSANALYSISISTHENEXTSTEPINEVALUATION
Assumeafavorablescopingstudy
Nextstepisadetailedsystemsanalysis
Allelementsareanalyzedinmuchgreaterdetail
For
example
in
our
nuclear
plant
scoping
study
we
gave
the
fuel
pricein$/kg
Inasystemanalysismodelthesecostsarefurtherbrokendown
Fuelcosts:
Mining
costs Conversioncosts
Enrichmentcosts Financecosts
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SystemsAnalysis
MODULARIZATIONOFSYSTEMSANALYSIS
Eachofthesemaybefurtheranalyzedoneortwolevelsdeeper.
Input
data
will
be
based
on
experience
and
future
projections.
Theanalysiswillaccountforuncertainties.
Alllowerlevelcontributionsarecombinedtoformonemoduleof
thesystemscode
thefuelcostmodule. ⇒
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SystemsAnalysis
SAINCLUDESNON-LINEAREFFECTS
AcriticalfeatureinSAistheinclusionofinterdependencies.
Systemsanalysisarenotlinear.
They
include
feedback
effects.Forexampleconsiderminingcosts:
PlentyofReserves – noproblem,linearrelationworks. Reservesdwindle – otherissuesarise Fuelcostswillrise
Will
new
fuel
be
found,
if
so
how
much? Howwillthisaffecttheprojectedcostoffuel?
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SystemsAnalysis
BEWAREOFCOMPLEXCODES.
Systemsanalysiscodecontainsalargenumberofcomplex modules
Oftenhardtounderstandthewholepicture,oftenexpertinpartof
the
picture.
Shouldbemorereliablethanascopingstudythought.
Warning:
Be
very
careful
using
complex
systems
analysis
codes!!
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SystemsAnalysis
SAISNOTONLYABOUTMONEY
Investorsarenottheonlypeopletocarryoutsystemsanalysis
Investorsfocusonfinancialreturns
Architectural
engineers
focus
on
technical
credibility,
schedule,
andcost
Environmentalistsfocusonpollution,wastedisposal,greenhousegasses,etc.
Government
focuses
on
the
public
good
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SystemsAnalysis
GOVERNMENT IMPACTONSAISTHROUGHREGULATION
Desirabilityofaregulationisintheeyeofthestakeholder.
Everyoneisalobbyist.
Financial
institutions. Engineeringfirms.
Environmentalgroups. Industrialgroups.
ConsiderationofimpactofregulationispartofanySA.
There
often
is
an
uncertain
political
aspect
to
a
regulation.
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SystemsAnalysis
STRUCTUREOFASYSTEMSANALYSIS
Numberofapproachestosystemsanalysis
Methodbelowisfairlytypical
Goal
of
the
analysis
–
answer
the
question
Does
it
make
sense
to
build
a
new
power
plant
(of
type
X)?
The
end
product
–
a
large,
complex,
hopefully
all
inclusive,
simulationcode.
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S A l i
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SystemsAnalysis
THESIMULATIONCODE
Technicalaspectsfromalifecycleanalysis
Regulation
aspects
from
a
risk
analysis
Includefeedbackeffects
Combinetocreateafinancialanalysis
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S t A l i Lif C l A l i
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Attributes: Costs Resource use Emissions Wastes Costs Performance etc.
Sum cumulative attributes over total life cycle of product to compare net impact
SystemsAnalysis LifeCycleAnalysis
LIFECYCLEANALYSIS(LCA)ELEMENTS
Production ofRaw Materials
ManufacturingProcess
Use ofProduct
Disposal
Energy
Recycle Wastes
Emissions
Wastes Wastes Wastes
Comprehensivecradle-to-grave,wells-to-wheels,dust-to-dust
analysisIncludes
Rawmaterials
Materials
processing
Manufacturing
Distribution Repairandmaintenance Wastedisposal
Decommissioning
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MacDonald’s
Styrofoam or paper?
Trees (natural?) Oil (bad?)
Chemicals (worse)
Paper (good ?)
Styrofoam (??)
Chlorine orPeroxide
Pulp Acid or Alkali
Benzene + C2H4 + etc.
CFCs
McD
Hard to recycleCO2 Styrene
Oil
PCBs +Paper
PentaneDioxins
Plastic coating Polystyrene foamWater
WastewaterLandfill Trash Recycle
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
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Hydrogen Production Example
•
Make from steam methane
reforming?
•
Make from water electrolysis
using wind power?
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
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SMR Results
H2 is a clean fuel, but its product ion from natural gas
has environmental consequences
H2
plant itself produces few emissions, except CO2
CO2 is the largest air emission (98 wt%) and accountsfor 77% of the GWP
0.64 MJ of H2 produced for every 1 MJ of fossilenergy consumed
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
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Wind/Electrolysis Study
turbines electrolyzer H2 storage
Wind turbines:
Atlantic Orient Corporation (50kW x 3)
Class 5 wind data from upper Midwest site
(North Dakota)
Electrolyzer:
Stuart Energy (30 Nm3/hr nominal capacity)
Cars fueled: fleet of 46 at 3 kg/car/week
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
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GWP and Energy Balance -
Wind/Electrolysis
Preliminary results:
• GWP = 650 g CO2-eq/kg H2 – Only 5% of the greenhouse gas emissions from SMR
• Energy balance = 20 MJ of H2 produced for every1 MJ of fossil energy consumed – 31 times more than the net energy balance from SMR
• Emissions are from equipment manufacture
–
Majority from concrete bases for wind turbines – Water consumption in electrolysis accounts for nearly
all resources
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
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Hydrogen Production Choice?
•
Wind power offers significant reduction in GHG
emissions
• For transportation, there is a mismatch between
wind turbine energy availability and the large
concentrated populations of cars
• Costs for hydrogen from wind power are MUCH
higher than those from SMR
• For SMR, more fossil energy is consumed than H2energy produced
Courtesy of Elisabeth M. Drake. Used with permission.
SystemsAnalysis LifeCycleAnalysis
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ACCURACYREFLECTSUNCERTAINTIES
Technicalaccuracyisgood
Basedonestablishedengineeringprinciples
AmountoffuelperyearAmount
of
stainless
steel
pipe
Averagelifetimeofvalves
Convertingtechnicalinto$moredifficult
Interestrates
Inflation
rates
Costoffuel
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SystemsAnalysis AnExample
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ANLCAOFNUCLEARFUELCOSTINCLUDINGSCARCITY
Costofnuclearfuelincludingscarcity
Referencecase:U=$2000/kg
Breakdown
from
the
MIT
study
for
cost
per
kg
Ore $437Enrichment $117Fabrication $825StorageandDisposal $351
Total
$2040
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SystemsAnalysis AnExample
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EQUATIONSFORTHECOSTOFOREARENON-LINEAR
Knownreservesandcostoforeareinter-related
10N (t )M F t
C ore(t ) =C i
exp k 1
R i (t )−10N (t )M F t N coal
N (t ) =N i0
+ +k 2N i0 t
T p
C ore(t )−C i R i (t ) =R i 0 1+k 3C ore(t )
k 1 =2.3,k 2 =0.05,k 3 =2
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SystemsAnalysis AnExample
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COSTOFOREFROMSYSTEMSANALYSIS
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
0 10 20 30 40
Year
C[$/kg]
N[#]
R[107 kg] Notethesingular
response
around40
years.Whatcausesthis?
Whatdoesa
plot
of
R
vs
C
looklike?
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SystemsAnalysis AnExample
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CONCLUSION
Costoforeincreasesby30
Oreis1/5thecostofuranium
COE
of
uranium
=
0.56
cent/kWhr
Thisyields3.8cents/kWhr
Notasbadwhenyoucalculatethepresentvalue
Still – itcouldbeaproblem
Uncertainty:
what
is
the
sensitivity
to
k 1,
k 2,
k 3
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
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RISKANALYSIS
Riskanalysisinvolvesaccidentstopeopleormechanicalfailures
Toomanyinjuriesorfailureslowerthecapacityfactorandreduce
revenue
Wewanttominimizeriskbutitisnotpossibletoachievezerorisk
Qualitativelyriskcanbewrittenas
Risk=Frequency×Consequence
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
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TYPESOFRISK
Riskcanbecontinuousordiscrete
Continuous:exposuretotoxicfumes
Discrete:steampipeexplosion
Consequencescouldcauseminorinjuries
Consequencescouldcausedeath
Consequencescouldinvolvelandorwatercontamination
Even
if
no
human
or
ecological
damage,
mechanical
failures
lowercapacityfactor
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
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AVOIDINGRISK
Threebasicapproaches:
Ultra
robust
design
to
minimize
failure
Redundancy – onesystemfails,anothertakesover
Increasedshut-downsformaintenanceandrepairs
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
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DETERMININGRISK
Howdowedeterminerisk?
Thisistherealmofriskanalysis
Singlecomponentfailuresrelativelyeasy
QualificationdataavailableHistoryofrealworldexperienceCanpredictthemeantimebetweenfailure
Singlesmallfailuresoftenharmless
Single
gigantic
failures
very
rare
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
C F
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COMPLEXFAILURES
Largest
danger:
often
a
sequence
of
minorfailuresleadstomajorcatastrophe
Forexample:TMI,Challenger
Analysis
requires
sophisticated
tools
FaulttreeanalysisEventtreeanalysisUncertaintyanalysis
Probabilityofasevereaccident
Greaterforasequenceofminor
failures
Smallerforasinglemajorfailure
Fault
Tree
example
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Systems
Analysis
Risk
Analysis
W ?
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WHATTODO?
Recommendationsvarybygroup
Builderstendtounderestimateriskstokeepthecostdown
Example:
Don’t
worry
–
the
Big
Dig
is
safe
Others
tend
to
overestimate
the
risks
to
avoid
or
delay
construction
Example:Nuclearisunsafe – don’tbuildit.
Example:Windkillbirds – don’tbuildit.
Oftenthearbiterofrisksaregovernmentagencies – theEPA,
NRC,
FDA,
etc.Desireriskinformedregulations
Regulationsconsistentwithseverityoftherisk
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Introduction to Sustainable Energy
Fall 2010
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