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System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
-Focused on Real Estate, Macro-economics, and Population factors-
Dr. CHOI, Hae-OkSenior Researcher, Spatial Information Research institute, Korea Cadastral Survey Corp.
(email: [email protected])
A Paper Prepared for conference on “Land and Poverty 2015: Linking land tenure and use for shared prosperity”
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Contents Contents
II. Literature Review
III. Methodology
IV. Status Quo of the price-volume in land
VI. Summary and Discussions
I. Introduction
Base Run1
2 Effect of price-volume in
land by land categories
3 Effect of speculation
psychology by land categories
4 Effect of cadastral workloads
by land categories
V. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models
I. IntroductionI. Introduction
Central to the new paradigm is the fact that creativity, knowledge and access to information are increasingly recognized as powerful engines driving economic growth and promoting development in a globalizing world
The Korea private cadastral market steadily open in until 2017The Korea private cadastral market steadily open in until 2017
However, well-developed public sectors should offer efficiencies of operation, providing the consumer with choice and professional services in a timely manner and at competitive process.
This research also attempts to identify the price-volume in land acts as a backbone for effecting cadastral surveying workloads with system dynamics approaches which has been overlooked in former studies
This research tries to suggest specific systematic management for land administration system, policy decision guidelines for developing countries
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
II. Literature Review II. Literature Review
This research evaluated that the rapidly increase of cadastral surveying workload according to price-volume in land which is closely related with Mutjima investment under the Noh government policy from 2004 to 2008.
ProsPros
Song(2006) takes a critical stands , who stresses the positive relationships between real estate and cadastral workload.
Cadastral research center(2007) reconfirm Song’s research. The cadastral workload is attracted to plan to purchase real estate, differing by regions.
Former research suggests that simple relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workload which consider each factors rather than consider all system together.
ConsCons
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
It is the main motivation that the overestimate real estate investment drives increasing cadastral surveying workloads.
Ⅲ. MethodologyⅢ. Methodology
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
③ Macro-economics
① Cadastral Workload
②Real Estate
④ Population
Cadastral Workload
Real Estate
+
Former research
Overcome Former
Research
System Dynamics (Powersim Program)-complex theory
• Methodology for Studying and Managing Complex Feedback System• A chain of Causes and EffectsUsed in…• Corporate Planning and Policy Design• Public Management and Policy• Energy and the Environment• Dynamic Decision Making • Complex Nonlinear Dynamics
Causal LoopStock-flow Diagram
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Ⅲ. MethodologyⅢ. Methodology
The Sequence of the research was as follows:
①identify and examine dynamics relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads,
②to analyze implied meaning of simulated values and examines effectiveness of speculative bubbles,
③to characterize the dynamic relationships for evaluating variables efficiency,
④to support insufficient idea from simulation conducting questionnaire survey.
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
③ Macro-economics
① Cadastral Workload
②Real Estate
④Population
Ⅲ. MethodologyⅢ. Methodology
DB
CL
Results
Questionaires
Literature review
Data Base
Major variables
Casual loop(CL)
Total Casual loop
Correlations,
Multilevel experiment
Stock-flow diagram
Based on simulation
results,
Questionnaires
survey
Data Base
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
답 대 임야 전 기타지
적측
량업
무량
Simulation Results
• Cadastral workloads by land categories
• Price-volume in land by land categories
• Speculative bubbles experiments
지적측량업무량
지적측량업무변화량
토지거래량
토지거래변화량
토지거래량에대한지적측량업무량탄력계수
토지거래변화율
인당 GDP
인당 GDP변화량
GDP변화율
추계인구
CD금리 환율
물가상승률
물가상승변화량
환율탄력계수금리탄력계수GDP탄력계수
금리변화율환율변화율
GDP 변화에 의한물가상승변화율
추계인구탄력계수
추계인구변화율
물가상승률탄력계수
물가상승률변화량
ExcelData_2
지목별 토지거래량
토지거래량을지적측량업무로
환산비율
지적측량업무량 합계
투기 심리
Stock-flow diagram
Total Casual Loop
Major Variables
Questionnaires Survey
• Real Estate• Macro-
economics• Population
Why it is happen the gap between
data and simulation
result?
Macro-economic
s
Population
Literature Review
Research Method
Real estate
The price-volume in land in Korea from 2000 to 2011
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Ⅳ. Status Quo of the price-volume in landⅣ. Status Quo of the price-volume in land
Causal Loops of the Creative Industry
Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models Ⅴ. Causal Loops and Stock-Flow Models
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Population
Real estate
Macro economics
B1
B4
B5
B2B3
B4
R2
R1
aged population
limit agingpopulation
death of agedpopulation
population
birth
death
the number ofhouseholds per housing
housing demand
housing price
construction newhousing
housing supply
the number ofhosing
demand of land forhousing
supply of land forhousing
land for housingprice
price-volume inland
speculationpsychology
regionaldevelopment
Decrease inRegional function
economically activepopulation
-
+
+
+-
+
+
-
the number ofhouseholds
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
the number ofarchitectural permission
+ -
GDP per person
GDP
inflation rate
exchange rate
interest rate
the price index ofstocks
++
++ +
+
-
cadastral work loads
variation rate ofcadastral work loads
price volume in land
variation rate of price-volume in land
elasticity rate of price-volume in land by
cadastral work loads
variation rate of price-volume
GDP per person
GDP variation rate perperson
GDP variation rate
population
CD interest rate exchange rate
rate of inflation rate
inflation rate
elasticity rate ofexchange rate
elasticity rate ofinterest rate
GDP elasticity rate
variation rate ofinterest rate
rate of exhange rate
variation rate of GDPby inflation rate
polulation elasticity rate
variation rate ofpolulation
elasticity rate ofinflation rate
variation rate ofinflation rate
ExcelData_2
ExcelData_5
ratio of price-volumeby cadastral work
loads
total cadastral workloads
investor sentiment
0.06
0.000.00
0.06 yr
6.43
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Figure 3. Stock-Flow Diagram
PopulationReal-estate
Macro-economics
VI. Simulation results VI. Simulation results
1. Base Run
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
The variation rate of price-volume in land GDP per person
00 01 0203 04 05 06 0708 09 10 11 1213 14 15 16 1718 190
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
인
당G
DP
0001 0203 04 0506 0708 0910 1112 1314 1516 1718 19
- 0.020
- 0.015
- 0.010
- 0.005
0.000
0.005
금리
변화
율
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 194.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
물가
상승
률
The variation rate of interest rate The rate of inflation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
per yr
답 대 임야 전 기타
토지
거래
변화
량
2. Effect of price-volume in land by land categories
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Simulation result of price-volume in land by land categories
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Paddy field Siting Forest Field ETC.
Pri
ce-v
olu
me i
n l
an
d
3. Effect of speculation psychology by land categories 5%, 10%, 15%
Experiment s what if speculation psychology 5%, 10%, 15%
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
5% 10%
15%
00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
PaddyFiled
Siting Forest Field ETC.
Lan
d T
ran
sacti
on
Volu
me
00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
PaddyField
Siting Forest Field ETC.
Lan
d T
ran
sacti
on
Volu
me
0001020304050607080910111213141516171819
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
PaddyField
Siting Forest Field ETC.
Lan
d T
ran
sacti
on
Volu
me
00 0102 03 0405 06 0708 09 10 1112 13 1415 16 1718 19
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
PaddyField
Siting Forest Field ETC.
Lan
d T
ran
sacti
on
Volu
me
0%
4. Cadastral workload gaps between simulation results and real data
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Cadastral survey workload
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
300,000
600,000
Simulation result Actual result
6. Questionnaires survey
Overview of Questionnaires survey
③ Macro-economics
① Cadastr
al Workloa
d
②Real Estate
④Population
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
VII. Questionnaires SurveyVII. Questionnaires Survey
male
Why happen the gap between simulation result and real data?
Economic depression -> new real estate policy -> indiscriminate investment -> population decreases
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
300,000
600,000
지적측량업무량 합계 실제 지적측량업무량
VIII. Summary and DiscussionsVIII. Summary and Discussions
Key Research Objective
This research examines relationship between price-volume in land and cadastral workloads by system dynamics
Tentative Results
Price-volume in land is affected by government real estate policies over time.
For the first half of research period, this research finds that land category put forth the impacts.
These trends, however, are reversed in the long term: overall, price-volume in land absolutely depends on macroeconomics especially GDP per person.
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Suggestions
Support timely LAS management in developing countries
Simulation results as references to land policy and strategy
③ Macro-economics
① Workload
②Real
Estate
④ Population
+00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
답 대 임야 전 기타
지적
측량
업무
량
지적측량업무량
지적측량업무변화량
토지거래량
토지거래변화량
토지거래량에대한지적측량업무량탄력계수
토지거래변화율
인당 GDP
인당 GDP변화량
GDP변화율
추계인구
CD금리 환율
물가상승률
물가상승변화량
환율탄력계수금리탄력계수GDP탄력계수
금리변화율환율변화율
GDP 변화에 의한물가상승변화율
추계인구탄력계수
추계인구변화율
물가상승률탄력계수
물가상승률변화량
ExcelData_2
지목별 토지거래량
토지거래량을지적측량업무로
환산비율
지적측량업무량 합계
투기 심리
Stock-flow diagram
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190
300,000
600,000
지적측량업무량 합계 실제 지적측량업무량
Simulation Policy and strategy making
System Dynamics Approaches on Price-volume in Land by Land Categories
Thank you!Thank you!
Contact Information
Dr. CHOI, Haeok – [email protected]
KOH, Munsung – [email protected]