System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.
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Transcript of System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.
![Page 1: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
System and Data Requirementsfor Fire and Air Planning
Janice Peterson
![Page 2: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
System and Data Requirements Session Overview
Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson)
Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg)
Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner)
Monitoring (Jim Russell)
F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox)
BlueSky (Sue Ferguson)
Technology Transfer Session
![Page 3: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Wildfire PM2.5 Compared to Other US Sources
National PM2.5 by Category
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
PM
2.5
ton
s/yr
All electric
All Point
All Area
National
Low wildfire
High wildfire
![Page 4: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Wildfire can emit as much PM2.5 in a day as the largest point or highest area source (county total) does in a year
PM2.5 Largest Point Source, Highest County Area Source Total, Single Bad Wildfire Day
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
PM
2.5
(to
ns)
Largest Point (t/yr)
Highest Area (t/yr)
Bad wildfire (t/day)
![Page 5: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Estimating Emissions
Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor
![Page 6: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Estimating Emissions
Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor
![Page 7: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Estimating Emissions
Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor
![Page 8: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Estimating Emissions
Basic Data Requirements Area Burned Fuel Load Fuel Consumption Emission Factor
![Page 9: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Data Complexity Can Add Accuracy
FUELBEDCOMPONENT
FUEL LOADING
(t/a)
FUEL CONSUMPTION
(percent)
EMISSION FACTOR(lbs/ton)
TOTAL EMISSIONS
(lbs/ac)
Flaming Smoldering Flaming Smoldering
Live Fuels(herb, grass,
brush)0-10 0-100
10-40 30-150 10-4000
Small Woody Fuels
(0-¼, ¼-1, 1-3, litter)
1-15 50-90 0-10
Large Fuels(3-6, 6-9, 9-20,
20+)0-80 10-40 5-30
Duff or Humus
0-100 0-50 0-50
![Page 10: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Variability of Fuel Loading
010203040506070
Vegetation Type
To
ns
per
Acr
e
High
Medium
Low
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Variation in Fuel Consumption for One Vegetation Type
(Spruce/fir)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
High Medium Low
Fuel Loading Class
To
ns/
Acr
e
Dry
Norm
Wet
![Page 12: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Fire Average PM2.5 Emission Factors
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Doug-fir Hardwds Ppine/LP Mix Con. Juniper Sage Chaparral Piles Wildfire
Vegetation Type
Pou
nds/
Ton
![Page 13: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Percent Error Contribution by Component Used to Estimate
Emissions
83%
30%
16%
90%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1
Co
eff
icie
nt
of
Va
ria
tio
n
LoadingConsumptionEmission Factor
Error in Result
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Biscuit Fire Example - Acres
Biscuit Fire 499,965 acres
PM2.5 Emissions 115,492 tons
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Acres Burned – Acres Black
Biscuit Fire 499,965 acres 99,993 unburned
or very low severity
PM2.5 Emissions 92,394 tons
Biscuit Fire Perimeter Acres vs.
Acres Black
Unburned
Acres Black
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Biscuit Fire Severity
499,965 acres 99,993 unburned or
very low 204,986 low 114,992 moderate 79,994 high
Biscuit Fire Severity
Unburned
Low
Moderate
High
![Page 17: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Burn Characteristics Affect Emissions
Biscuit Fire Emissions by Severity
Low
Moderate
High
Biscuit Fire Severity
Low
Moderate
High
![Page 18: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Data Needs for Emissions Estimation – Wildfire and Rx Fire
Acres (*systematic overestimation?) Acres black (reported or modeled)
Acres by severity
Fuel Type Maps Reported fuel loading
Fuel loading by size class
Fuel moisture mapping Reported fuel moisture
Reported fuel consumption
![Page 20: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Emissions vs. ….
![Page 21: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Emissions vs. ….Impacts
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Dispersion Modeling: Promises vs. Realities
![Page 23: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Dispersion Modeling Accuracy
Model sophistication (EPA certification) Meteorology Ignition Duration Fuel Moisture Flaming vs. Smoldering Consumption Fuel Loading ??
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Monitoring
Accurate for impacts. Expensive, time
consuming, difficult. What is our
responsibility? Wildfire Rx Fire
Compliance Reality vs. perception Nuisance smoke
![Page 25: System and Data Requirements for Fire and Air Planning Janice Peterson.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649dc95503460f94abfa2a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
System and Data Requirements Session Overview
Emissions Estimation (Janice Peterson)
Fire Emissions Inventories (Sam Sandberg)
Fire Activity Tracking (Mike Hilbruner)
Monitoring (Jim Russell)
F-CAMMS Modeling Consortia's (Doug Fox)
BlueSky (Sue Ferguson)
Technology Transfer Session