Wil Thissen, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management (TPM)

System analysis for problem structuring

Part 1B: the mono-actor perspective - example

1. Functions of basic system analysis2. The system or problem diagram3. How to construct a system diagram?4. Interpretation and uses of a system diagram5. Example: wind power6. conclusions

System analysis for problem structuringThe mono-actor situation

Example: Wind Power at Sea

Wind power at sea

security of supplysecurity of supply

percentage off-shorepower generation

percentage off-shorepower generation

costs of energyprovision

costs of energyprovision

installed capacity at sea

installed capacity at sea +

number of international connections

number of international connectionsstorage capacitystorage capacity

+ +

average windspeed at location

average windspeed at location

+number of new wind farms

number of new wind farms

size of the windparkssize of the windparks

++

subsidies

granting licenses

+

+

?

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

++

Distance tocoast

+

+

Balance supply and demand of energy

Balance supply and demand of energy ‐

+

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

+

scale advantagesscale advantages+

‐+

investment costinvestment cost

+ +

Uses of a system diagram

• Does the client face intrinsic dilemmas?– Actions or changes that are good for some goals but bad for other goals

• Are actions effective?– Can the client attain all of his goals?– How much control has the client over his criteria??

• Are criteria sensitive to external influences? Might the client’s goals beattained without taking action?

• Are there any important knowledge gaps?

Wind power at sea

+

security of supply

costs of energyprovision

costs of energyprovision

Balance supply and demand of energy

number of international connections

number of international connectionsstorage capacitystorage capacityaverage windspeed at

locationaverage windspeed at

location

number of new wind farms

size of the windparkssize of the windparks

installed capacity at sea

scale advantagesscale advantages

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

subsidies

granting licenses

-

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

scale advantagesscale advantages

investment costinvestment cost

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

Distance tocoast

+

++

+ +

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

?

+

+

‐

‐

+

+

percentage off-shorepower generation

Uses of a system diagram

• Does the client face intrinsic dilemmas?– Actions or changes that are good for some goals but bad for other goals

• Are actions effective?– Can the client attain all of his goals?– How much control has the client over his criteria??

• Are criteria sensitive to external influences? Might the client’s goals beattained without taking action?

• Are there any important knowledge gaps?

Wind power at sea

security of supplysecurity of supply

percentage off-shorepower generation

percentage off-shorepower generation

costs of energyprovision

costs of energyprovision

Balance supply and demand of energy

Balance supply and demand of energy

number of international connections

number of international connectionsstorage capacitystorage capacityaverage windspeed at

locationaverage windspeed at

location

number of new wind farms

number of new wind farms

size of the windparkssize of the windparks

installed capacity at sea

installed capacity at sea

subsidies

granting licenses

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

scale advantagesscale advantages

investment costinvestment cost

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

Distance tocoast

+

++

+ +

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

?

+

+

‐

‐

+

+

Score card

0 0

→Criteria Security

of supply

Percentage off-shore power

Costs of energy provision

- + ?

- + 0?

Giving subsidies

Granting licences

↓ Means

Distance to coast +

Uses of a system diagram

• Does the client face intrinsic dilemmas?– Actions or changes that are good for some goals but bad for other goals

• Are actions effective?– Can the client attain all of his goals?– How much control has the client over his criteria?

• Are criteria sensitive to external influences? Might the client’sgoals be attained without taking action?

• Are there any important knowledge gaps?

Wind power at sea

security of supplysecurity of supply

percentage off-shorepower generation

percentage off-shorepower generation

costs of energyprovision

costs of energyprovision

Balance supply and demand of energy

Balance supply and demand of energy

number of international connections

number of international connectionsstorage capacitystorage capacityaverage windspeed at

locationaverage windspeed at

location

number of new wind farms

number of new wind farms

size of the windparkssize of the windparks

installed capacity at sea

installed capacity at sea

subsidies

granting licenses

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

scale advantagesscale advantages

investment costinvestment cost

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

Distance tocoast

+

++

+ +

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

?

+

+

‐

‐

+

+

Uses of a system diagram

• Does the client face intrinsic dilemmas?– Actions or changes that are good for some goals but bad for other goals

• Are actions effective?– Can the client attain all of his goals?– How much control has the client over his criteria?

• Are criteria sensitive to external influences? Might the client’s goals beattained without taking action?

• Are there any important knowledge gaps?

Wind power at sea

security of supplysecurity of supply

percentage off-shorepower generation

percentage off-shorepower generation

costs of energyprovision

costs of energyprovision

Balance supply and demand of energy

Balance supply and demand of energy

number of international connections

number of international connectionsstorage capacitystorage capacityaverage windspeed at

locationaverage windspeed at

location

number of new wind farms

number of new wind farms

size of the windparkssize of the windparks

installed capacity at sea

installed capacity at sea

subsidies

granting licenses

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

Waterdepth off-shorewindfarm

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

distance between the windfarm and the

connection point at land

scale advantagesscale advantages

investment costinvestment cost

Transport costs of the generated energy

Transport costs of the generated energy

Distance tocoast

+

++

+ +

+

+

+

++

+

+

+

?

+

+

‐

‐

+

+

Conclusions on wind power• The ministry faces an intrinsic dilemma: wind power versus reliability of

supply• Effectiveness of the client’s actions is not clear, and may depend on

exogenous factors• Attainment of the client’s goals will also depend on other actors (location

choice, energy companies, energy network managers)• More insight is needed:

– impacts of subsidies/permits on the willingness of energy companies toinvest

– Influence of location choice on costs– Possible influence of external factors– Influence on security of supply

1. Functions of basic system analysis2. The system or problem diagram3. How to construct a system diagram?4. Interpretation and uses of a system diagram5. Example: wind power6. conclusions

System analysis for problem structuringThe mono-actor situation

Thank you for your attention!