Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF) , 12-15.07.2007

Greece: high growth with low ICT contributionGreece: high growth with low ICT contribution How can technology-fueled growth be How can technology-fueled growth be put on a sustainable path?put on a sustainable path?

Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF)Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF), , 12-12-15.07.200715.07.2007

Organized by: NTUA (Laboratory of Industrial Organized by: NTUA (Laboratory of Industrial and Energy Economics)and Energy Economics)

Support: iris-europe project (Support: iris-europe project (http://atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/http://atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/) )

Petros KAVASSALIS

http://atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/

P. Kavassalis <[email protected]>P. Kavassalis <[email protected]> 22Syros July, 2007Syros July, 2007

Sat. afternoon session: Case studies (and new Sat. afternoon session: Case studies (and new research directions)research directions)

Petros Kavassalis: intro (10 min)Petros Kavassalis: intro (10 min) Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions

(20 min)(20 min) Petros Kavassalis: Theoretical implications from cases-study work – coordinate Petros Kavassalis: Theoretical implications from cases-study work – coordinate

ICT adoption through efficient technology markets and supporting institutuons… ICT adoption through efficient technology markets and supporting institutuons… (10 min)(10 min)

Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10 Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10 min)min)

Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer industry (10 min)industry (10 min) PAUSEPAUSE

Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective institutions”… (20 min)institutions”… (20 min)

Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min)Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min) Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!]Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!] 20 20 min discussionmin discussion

Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!


High growth rates driven the High growth rates driven the last years by:last years by:

Fixed Investment Fixed Investment (equipment)(equipment)

Exports (South Eastern Exports (South Eastern Europe)Europe)

Main components of GDP Main components of GDP (2005)(2005)

Private Consumption (68%)Private Consumption (68%) Fixed investment (23%)Fixed investment (23%) Exports (18%)Exports (18%)

Also:Also: Fast-growing services Fast-growing services

sector (Tourism2GDP: sector (Tourism2GDP: 10%)10%)

Competitiveness and Competitiveness and productivity low productivity low (signs of (signs of improvement for productivity)improvement for productivity)

Greece: high growth rates for 10 yearsGreece: high growth rates for 10 yearsGDP per capita (1995-2005): EU 2GDP per capita (1995-2005): EU 2ndnd, OECD 2, OECD 2ndnd


… … but low position in but low position in Networked ReadinessNetworked Readiness IndexIndex


[Note: What is the Networked Readiness [Note: What is the Networked Readiness Index?]Index?]

NRI / Networked Readiness Index: the degree of preparation of a nation NRI / Networked Readiness Index: the degree of preparation of a nation or community to participate in and benefit from ICT developmentsor community to participate in and benefit from ICT developments

++

++


It is going to be clear! But how to explain it?It is going to be clear! But how to explain it?

GDP constantly increasing: yesGDP constantly increasing: yes Growth rate: significantGrowth rate: significant ICT-fueled growth: very lowICT-fueled growth: very low Public policies for ICT promotion: persistent – relatively well funded Public policies for ICT promotion: persistent – relatively well funded

It is important to explain (and, possibly, change trajectory!) It is important to explain (and, possibly, change trajectory!) How?How? Beyond cultural explanationsBeyond cultural explanations Do not blame the European Commission…Do not blame the European Commission…

o There is an interesting literature providing explanations to Greek ICT-There is an interesting literature providing explanations to Greek ICT-laggardness by concluding on a inadequacy of ICT-supporting public policies: the laggardness by concluding on a inadequacy of ICT-supporting public policies: the transfer of public policy rationales from the most developed EU countries is the transfer of public policy rationales from the most developed EU countries is the principal cause for: principal cause for:

1.1. the inefficiency of Greek public ICT policiesthe inefficiency of Greek public ICT policies2.2. the low technology profile of the high growth rate…the low technology profile of the high growth rate…


We have to recognize the modest objective of We have to recognize the modest objective of (core) EU ICT policy(core) EU ICT policy

EU ICT Policy Goals (according to P. Johnston, EC)EU ICT Policy Goals (according to P. Johnston, EC)1.1. Industrial policy to consolidate the European ICT sector for a single market Industrial policy to consolidate the European ICT sector for a single market

and as a globally-competitive private sector, rather than as public and as a globally-competitive private sector, rather than as public monopolies or ‘national champions’monopolies or ‘national champions’

2.2. Consumer welfare policies to provide a wider range of more affordable Consumer welfare policies to provide a wider range of more affordable communications services to all Europeanscommunications services to all Europeans

3.3. Policies for sustained economic growth stimulating innovation across all the Policies for sustained economic growth stimulating innovation across all the economy, including in the provision of public serviceseconomy, including in the provision of public services

4.4. Plus (peripheral countries): ICT to support “cohesion” strategiesPlus (peripheral countries): ICT to support “cohesion” strategies Implementation has been (my appreciation)Implementation has been (my appreciation)

successful in: 1 and 2successful in: 1 and 2 less successful in: 3less successful in: 3 Relatively successful in: 4 Relatively successful in: 4

Implementation in Greece:Implementation in Greece: 1 (no industrial policy in this regard), 2 (it now gives 1 (no industrial policy in this regard), 2 (it now gives results), 3 (no significant results), 4 (more satisfactory in terms of network results), 3 (no significant results), 4 (more satisfactory in terms of network infrastructures development)infrastructures development)


Ok, these papers provide… an argument for Ok, these papers provide… an argument for euro-skepticism euro-skepticism (this is the hype…)(this is the hype…) but they are but they are still interesting! still interesting!

Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, The Long Road from Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, The Long Road from Technology to Development…, DRUID Summer ConferenceTechnology to Development…, DRUID Summer Conference

Avgerou, 2000, Recognizing Alternative Rationalities in the Deployment Avgerou, 2000, Recognizing Alternative Rationalities in the Deployment of Information Systems, EJISDCof Information Systems, EJISDC

Collins and Pontikakis, 2006, Innovation Systems in the European Collins and Pontikakis, 2006, Innovation Systems in the European Periphery: the policy approaches of Ireland and Greece, Science and Periphery: the policy approaches of Ireland and Greece, Science and Public PolicyPublic Policy

Pontikakis, Lin, Demirbas, 2006, History matters in Greece: The Pontikakis, Lin, Demirbas, 2006, History matters in Greece: The adoption of Internet-enabled computers by small and medium size adoption of Internet-enabled computers by small and medium size entreprises, Information Economics and Policyentreprises, Information Economics and Policy

Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, When Blueprints are not Liagouras, Zambarloukos, Constantelou, 2004, When Blueprints are not of Big Help: Impasses and Challenges of Technology Policy in of Big Help: Impasses and Challenges of Technology Policy in Intermediate Economies, Working PaperIntermediate Economies, Working Paper


Back to the central question(s)…Back to the central question(s)…

Growth in Greece is modestly “modern” (modern growth: systematic Growth in Greece is modestly “modern” (modern growth: systematic application of science to economic ends?). application of science to economic ends?). ExplainExplain

ICT technology policies in Greece obtains weak results (disproportional ICT technology policies in Greece obtains weak results (disproportional to the volume of investments). to the volume of investments). ExplainExplain

Of course, EU peripherals countries are structurally different from core Of course, EU peripherals countries are structurally different from core countries but they converge. Do we need “alternative policies” or better countries but they converge. Do we need “alternative policies” or better implementation strategies? implementation strategies? AnswerAnswer The discussion is open!The discussion is open! iris-europe’siris-europe’s contribution ( contribution (http://www.iris-europe.euhttp://www.iris-europe.eu// and and

http://www.atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/http://www.atlantis-group.gr/projects/iris-e/) ) o Aid and accelerate the decision making process of local and regional authorities as far as Aid and accelerate the decision making process of local and regional authorities as far as

regional development policies and efficient use of ICT are concerned: collect and analyze regional development policies and efficient use of ICT are concerned: collect and analyze 100 case studies from 4 EU countries and provide a platform for comparative analysis and 100 case studies from 4 EU countries and provide a platform for comparative analysis and reciprocal learningreciprocal learning

o Twenty (20) case studies will be conducted in Greece: collect information on projects and Twenty (20) case studies will be conducted in Greece: collect information on projects and practices of successful integration of ICT technologies in public organizations and private practices of successful integration of ICT technologies in public organizations and private firms (illustrating goals and methods, main actors and relationships between them, concrete firms (illustrating goals and methods, main actors and relationships between them, concrete project achievements, theoretical implications etc.)project achievements, theoretical implications etc.)


We may never come up with definitive answersWe may never come up with definitive answers

We are working through cases (limited approach)We are working through cases (limited approach) Public Sector: almost donePublic Sector: almost done Private Sector: we are going to startPrivate Sector: we are going to start

We recognize structural distance of Greek economy from the We recognize structural distance of Greek economy from the “knowledge economy” ideal, as our colleagues do:“knowledge economy” ideal, as our colleagues do: Weak competitionWeak competition Dispersion of the industry structure (with many “isolated” SMEs)Dispersion of the industry structure (with many “isolated” SMEs) Weak “collective dynamics” in industry organizationWeak “collective dynamics” in industry organization Significant presence of “non-increasing returns” service industries Significant presence of “non-increasing returns” service industries

(get them in the “knowledge economy” world, through ICT, it is not (get them in the “knowledge economy” world, through ICT, it is not only a Greek trouble)only a Greek trouble)

Non particularly efficient business management structures, heritage Non particularly efficient business management structures, heritage from the past / resistance to changefrom the past / resistance to change


Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first Iro Nikiforou: 20 Greek cases on ICT adoption (iris-e project) – first conclusions (20 min)conclusions (20 min)


ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation ICT in the Greek public sector: implementation matters! (1)matters! (1)

Successful projects implySuccessful projects imply User side: A well defined technology demand and an ability to User side: A well defined technology demand and an ability to

monitor implementationmonitor implementationo In practice, this happens only within elite public agencies (GRNET, In practice, this happens only within elite public agencies (GRNET,

GSIS)GSIS) Producer side: A project implementation strategy able to bring the Producer side: A project implementation strategy able to bring the

new technology into the cognitive framework of its users…new technology into the cognitive framework of its users…



Tips: A technology projectTips: A technology project Needs a plan of organizational Needs a plan of organizational pre-reformspre-reforms to implement early in the project to implement early in the project

life-cyclelife-cycleo In practice, technology is strategically used to impose reform (Trojan horse)In practice, technology is strategically used to impose reform (Trojan horse)

Requires careful design and implementation coherenceRequires careful design and implementation coherenceo In practice, there is cacophony: requirements analysis, implementation and In practice, there is cacophony: requirements analysis, implementation and

integration within the user-organization are loosely coordinatedintegration within the user-organization are loosely coordinated Needs organizational stabilityNeeds organizational stability

o In practice, pro1ject managers and key-persons change many times, due to In practice, pro1ject managers and key-persons change many times, due to external to the project reasonsexternal to the project reasons

(most important) Requires to be designed through close interaction between (most important) Requires to be designed through close interaction between implementors and users (ICT systems are much more complex artifacts than implementors and users (ICT systems are much more complex artifacts than network infrastructures)network infrastructures)

o Know how to leverage the potential of communities of users and communities of Know how to leverage the potential of communities of users and communities of practicespractices



In brief, an ICT technology project needs a clear and executable design In brief, an ICT technology project needs a clear and executable design blueprint and a componentized budget (for organization pre-reforms, blueprint and a componentized budget (for organization pre-reforms, technical implementations, change management, marketing)technical implementations, change management, marketing)

Interesting to knowInteresting to know Do Universities propose a coherent curriculum of ICT engineer?Do Universities propose a coherent curriculum of ICT engineer?

ICT public projects get modest results. What is the reason for civil ICT public projects get modest results. What is the reason for civil engineering public projects success?engineering public projects success?

Anybody interested to look at that?Anybody interested to look at that?


ICT in the private sector: ICT in the private sector: (ongoing (ongoing research)research)

Consumer technology goods diffuse quickly (as quickly as in the rest of Consumer technology goods diffuse quickly (as quickly as in the rest of the developed world)the developed world) Perfect examples: mobile phones, medical imaging servicesPerfect examples: mobile phones, medical imaging services

Industries exposed to the competition adopt ICT technologies pushed by Industries exposed to the competition adopt ICT technologies pushed by both the intensity of competition and their participation in global supply both the intensity of competition and their participation in global supply chainschains Example: food industryExample: food industry


ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure problem (1) problem (1) [a conceptual model borrowing from Arora et al., MIT Press][a conceptual model borrowing from Arora et al., MIT Press]

First, separate things [US Department of Justice]First, separate things [US Department of Justice] Market for technology (markets for goods with a strong “intellectual Market for technology (markets for goods with a strong “intellectual

property” dimension): transactions for the use and diffusion of technologyproperty” dimension): transactions for the use and diffusion of technology Market for innovation (markets about a future product): transactions for Market for innovation (markets about a future product): transactions for

the creation of new technology the creation of new technology [Emilia][Emilia] [Note: Both terms, technology and innovation, refer to “useful” knowledge [Note: Both terms, technology and innovation, refer to “useful” knowledge

embodied in engineering artifactsembodied in engineering artifacts]] Second, identify the nature of the Second, identify the nature of the markets for technologymarkets for technology [please correct me if [please correct me if

I am wrong]I am wrong] Vertical: ICT technology in Greece is supplied within a two stages marketVertical: ICT technology in Greece is supplied within a two stages market

1.1. STAGE 1STAGE 1 To the end-users, by an industry segment of technology integrators, To the end-users, by an industry segment of technology integrators, consultants and “service providers” (I call them, technology suppliers, examples: consultants and “service providers” (I call them, technology suppliers, examples: Singular-Logic, Mobile Operators, PLANET) Singular-Logic, Mobile Operators, PLANET)

2.2. STAGE 2STAGE 2 Technology integrators themselves are sourced by an upstream sector Technology integrators themselves are sourced by an upstream sector of technology producers (mostly multinationals – of technology producers (mostly multinationals – few local specialized technology few local specialized technology producers / SMEsproducers / SMEs))


ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure ICT in the private sector : a coordination failure problem (2) problem (2)

Focus at STAGE 1Focus at STAGE 1 It works well when it is called to satisfy a demand with high “breadth It works well when it is called to satisfy a demand with high “breadth

dimension” (ICT consumer goods)dimension” (ICT consumer goods) It is problematic when it is to serve a demand with “depth dimension” It is problematic when it is to serve a demand with “depth dimension”

(ICT in government and business)(ICT in government and business)o Improve the way market STAGE 1 works: it can promote the diffusion of Improve the way market STAGE 1 works: it can promote the diffusion of

existing ICT technologyexisting ICT technology How to improve market coordination: we need a new model of division How to improve market coordination: we need a new model of division

Incentives for consolidation and suppliers specializationIncentives for consolidation and suppliers specialization Open technology supplies industry to EU competition (mergers)Open technology supplies industry to EU competition (mergers)

o Today [Tsakanikas]: a large industrial base, obviously inefficient, that Today [Tsakanikas]: a large industrial base, obviously inefficient, that points to a lack of effective market selection mechanisms points to a lack of effective market selection mechanisms

Demand-side “collective institutions” [Marianna]Demand-side “collective institutions” [Marianna]


SummarySummary

Typical policy initiatives to improve ICT adoption:Typical policy initiatives to improve ICT adoption:o ICT policyICT policyo Networked LearningNetworked Learningo Social ICT CapitalSocial ICT Capitalo Information diffusion about ICT opportunitiesInformation diffusion about ICT opportunitieso Networked economy infrastructuresNetworked economy infrastructures

Should add:Should add: Project implementation blueprint for public sector investmentsProject implementation blueprint for public sector investments More ICT engineers [properly formed as Caloghirou explains + educational More ICT engineers [properly formed as Caloghirou explains + educational

focus on precision and effort] focus on precision and effort] Policies to improve coordination through markets (restructuring of ICT Policies to improve coordination through markets (restructuring of ICT

services industry)services industry) Collective institutions to improve ITC users competenciesCollective institutions to improve ITC users competencies

This is only a conceptual model. We need:This is only a conceptual model. We need: More empirical evidence: Comparisons between Greece, Portugal and More empirical evidence: Comparisons between Greece, Portugal and

Ireland (maybe Spain too)Ireland (maybe Spain too) Quantitative analysis: Vlachos [last speaker: e-business watch database] Quantitative analysis: Vlachos [last speaker: e-business watch database]

and Tsakanikas [how to measure market stage 1 efficiency?]and Tsakanikas [how to measure market stage 1 efficiency?]


Thanks, enjoy the rest! Thanks, enjoy the rest!

Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… Thanassis Priftis: More ITC cases: How Local Governments adopt ICT… (10 min)(10 min)

Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a Petros Stefaneas: Digital Terrestrial TV – frame the development of a consumer industry (10 min)consumer industry (10 min) PAUSEPAUSE

Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective Marianna Sigala: Coordinate ICT adoption in tourism through “collective institutions”… (20 min)institutions”… (20 min)

Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min)Ilias Vlachos: Profiles of demand for ICT goods (20 min) Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!]Discussants: T. Karounos & T. Darmaros [express yourself at any time!] 20 min discussion20 min discussion

Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!Closing event: celebrate Stefaneas’ published book!


AnnexAnnex


Ερωτήματα / 3Ερωτήματα / 3

Genika milwntas: empodia sto adoption ICT texnologiwn stous 3 autous Genika milwntas: empodia sto adoption ICT texnologiwn stous 3 autous tomeis kai kosth pou apaitountai? scalability / extensibility issues?tomeis kai kosth pou apaitountai? scalability / extensibility issues?

Genika milwmtas: Poio einai to ofelos (antagwnistiko pleonekthma) pou Genika milwmtas: Poio einai to ofelos (antagwnistiko pleonekthma) pou prosferoun ependuseis se ICT se autous tous tomeis (me paradeigmata prosferoun ependuseis se ICT se autous tous tomeis (me paradeigmata endexomenws apo alles xwres)?endexomenws apo alles xwres)?

Ti politikes tha mporousan na bohthsoun thn epitaxynsh tou ICT Ti politikes tha mporousan na bohthsoun thn epitaxynsh tou ICT adoption se autous tous 3 tomeis? adoption se autous tous 3 tomeis?

Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF) , 12-15.07.2007

Documents

Transcript of Syros Workshop 2007 (NRF) , 12-15.07.2007