Syria a Revolution, a Conspiracy or a Civil...
Transcript of Syria a Revolution, a Conspiracy or a Civil...
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Syriaa Revolution,
a Conspiracy or a Civil War
Universita Ca’ Foscari Venezia, 25 janvier 2013Samir AITA
Founding Member of the Syrian Democratic ForumEditor in Chief, Le Monde diplomatique Arabic editions
President du Cercle des Economistes Arabes
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Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the
« Arab Spring »
• A Revolution: What for?o We don’t want to talk politics, we want to overthrow the regime !!!
The « youth Tsunami » May 1968
The « power system above the state » The 1973 oil boom model and its geopolitics
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The Youth Tsunami
• A baby boom around the 90’s youth bulge now, like Europe in the 1960’s, but without the « GloriousThirty »
• May 68!
0%
5%
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0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Syrie: Répartition de la population suivant les tranches d'âge
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Where are the youth?
• Rural Urban Migration: in small towns and in suburbs
• mapping Socially the Uprisings
• IslamismAnd socialintegration
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Algerie
Egypte
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Maroc
Palestine
Syrie
Tunisie
Evolution de la part de la population urbaine (%)
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Where are the jobs?• Chronic deficiency in job creations
• Labour force: >+300,000/ year• Job created: 65,000/year (8,000 formal)!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• De-industrialisation
Agriculture
Industrie
Construction
CommerceTransport
Finance
Services
Syrie
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What is EMPLOYMENT?
• What is a salary man? What is a citizen?
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Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the
« Arab Spring »• A Revolution following the failure of “reforms”
2000: the son after the father in a Republic 2001: The “Damascus Spring” : the collapse of the scheme
of gradual reforms 2003: The “social market economy” : economic reforms first
= the reinforcement of the “power system above the state” = crony capitalism
2005: Loosing Lebanon: the struggle of two power systems = the lost of regional influence
2010: The “Arab Spring” is not for us…. 2011-2012: from a civic and peaceful “Revolution”towards a full fledged “War”
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Syria, a Revolution in the Wake of the
« Arab Spring »• More than 22 months and no issue
February 2011: Deraa and Hauran the power system should stay united
March 2011: The social network the “people want to topple the regime”
March – June 2011: local negotiations for a national crisis! The National Coordination Board
June 2011: The “National Dialogue” the breakdown with civil society
October 2011: foreign powers organize political opposition the Syrian National Council : an umbrella for opposition or “a State in place of the State” = the Libyan pollution
March 2012 : The failure of politics “Long life to the Free Syrian Army” creation of the Syrian Democratic Forum
July 2012 : The Cairo Documents: The National Compact and the vision of Transition
November 2012: the creation of the Coalition
No politics, no negotiations, we want to overthrow the regime
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Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution
• Whatever the sufferings, if it does not bring human values, it is just an uprising
From a local to a national uprising : “we are all Deraa” Staying Peaceful: “Silmiyyeh, Silmyyeh” You will not divide us: “The Syrian people are one ! We are all
Kurds !” The rise of politics and media the regionalization of conflict
“No violence, No sectarianism, No Foreign Intervention”NCB against SNC “we represent the people, we wantforeign reconnaissance, and no-fly zone”
“toppling dictatorship” against toppling “all symbols ofregime”
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Syria, the road to war
• God, we only have you
What is political representation ?“we are the State” against “stop the killing”
The Arab League : a mediator?The invention of “Peace monitors” Who is the Arab League ?
“God we only have you” you vs political Islam The United Nations and security Council as mediators
The new cold warNobody want to intervene
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Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution
• Long life to the Free Syrian Army
From a peaceful uprising to a military civil war Who is the Free Syrian Army ? “ Even a war can only be won through politics”
The Syrian Democratic Forum Formulating Future
The National Pact… The transition program
Bridging the rifts: military – society - politics
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Syria, a Conspiracy to Break
the « Arab Spring »
• Is the “Arab Spring” only for populated republics?
Two “Arab Worlds” : Can the new “Arab awakening come from the Gulf”
What to do with oil and gas money?
“You have to acknowledge that there is a majority !”
Reshaping the Middle East : Sunni versus Shia axes
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Revolution or Sunni‐Shiaa conflict
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The Domino effect and the role of the army
• The domino effect in the “Arab Spring”
Tunisia : the army helping a quick outcome
Egypt: The army is on the people side !!!
Bahrain: The army comes from Saudi Arabia
Yemen: the army divided between the tribes and combatting terrorism
Libya: the Qatari-French conspiracy against the army
Syria: trying to reproduce the Libyan Scenario: the ideological army!!!
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Syria, a local or a regional conflict
• Media and satellite channels: information or a weapon of mass manipulation
Qatar: a Superpower? Iran: a friend or a Foe? Turkey: A secular or a Sunni State? Friend or Foe Saudi Arabia: competition or collaboration in the Gulf Iraq: Which Iraq? The Kurdish, the Sunni or the Shia quasi-
States? Egypt: too busy with its own turmoil… France: a regional or a far away power? La Question d’Orient Israel: where does it stand?
What can the Arab League do?
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The Road for Oil
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The Road for Qatar Gas
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Turkey, a secular or religious state
where are the alevis?
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Is it the historical for an independent
Kurdish state?
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Syria, the place for a new Cold War
• “We shall not admit that any foreign country intervene in Syria” Serguei Lavrov
The US: does it really want democracy in the region? Russia: why taking so much risk “supporting the regime”? China: what are its interests here? The UK: so subtle
UN and the Security Council: Will the Ibrahimi mission succeed?
Can superpowers influence regional emerging powers?
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Syria, a Civil War ?
• “You have to acknowledge that there is a majority in this country” !!! Azmi Bishara
Syria is a complex mosaic Is the regime an alawi or an Assad family regime? The map of the uprising: big cities against country side Why Damascus and Aleppo were late to move? Why there was no strong uprising in the Alawi, Druze,
Ismaeli and Christian areas? Why the regime didn’t shoot on the Kurds? Where the tribes stand?
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Syria? Religious, Regional and ethnic
identities
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Syria, regional interdependence of the local
mosaic
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Syrian Arab Republic, or just Syria?
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Syria, a Sectarian/Civil War ?
• The Army is ideological !
Why the army did not side with the uprising? Ideological army = alawi army? Are Sunni population a “majority” ? What is the aim of uprising/revolution? Replacing a State
by another? Local Syrians/emigrant Syrians divide?
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Syria divided
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The Battle of Hauran
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The Battle of Aleppo
Katma
Tell Rifaat Marae
Anadan
Aleppo
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The Battle of Damascus
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The Battle of Ras Al Ain
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Syria, an Uprising or a Revolution
Formulating Future : what is common ? Identity/religion/ ethnicity
Can there be a democracy without a State?
Punishment and/or Reconciliation: what is transitional justice?
Preserving independent will: Can Syria crisis be solved without constraining regional powers?
Can non-democratic people/countries help building democracy ?
Is there an “Arab Spring” ?