Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated Development and Climate Policies

UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment

Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated

Development and Climate PoliciesDevelopment and Climate Policies

Kirsten Halsnæs, URC andP.R. Shukla, IIM, Ahmedabad


Structure

•Overview of how sustainable development and climate change perspectives have been applied in different studies.

•Lessons from mitigation studies.

•Lessons from adaptation studies.

•Sustainable development and international climate policy implications.

•Cross cutting conclusions.

•Suggestions for new activity areas.


Sustainable Development and Climate Change Perspectives

Studies vary according to scope and methodological approach:

•Scope:

•Sectors: Energy, agriculture, forestry, water, infrastructure etc.

•Mitigation versus adaptation.

•National and international climate policy conclusions.

•Approach:

•National scenarios and quantiative results.

•In depth analysis of case studies.

•Policy dialogues


Development and Climate

Energy Component

Mitigation: Energy

Adaptation: infrastructure, energy, water/agr. links

UNEP Risø

Bangladesh,Brazil,

China, India,

Senegal, South Africa

Methodological Guidelines

Country studies

World Development

Growing in the Greenhouse

SD policies and measures for climate change mitigation

World Resources Institute

Brazil, China, India, South Africa

Summary report

Development and Climate

Landuse Component

Vulnerability and adaptation options in landuse sectors

NMP, NL

Bangladesh, Brazil,

China, India, Senegal, South Africa

Journal papers


OECD Development and Climate Project

Vulnerability and adaptation

OECD Environment and Development

Egypt, Fiji, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tanzania, Uruguay

Summary report

Asian Perspectives on Climate Regime Beyond 2012

International policy regimes

IGES Japan

China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Vietnam

Summary report

Journal papers

Development and Climate Engaging Developing Countries

Climate Change Mitigation. International and national policy regimes

The PEW Centre Summary report


Conlusions on the Overview

•Particularly large countries like Brazil, China, India, and South Africa have been included.

•Many Asian countries have participated.

•Very few African and Latin American countries have participated.

•Weak link between national studies and international climate policy conclusions.

•Relatively few outputs in peer reviewed literature.


Mitigation Focused Studies •Development, Energy and Climate, URC with ”the big four” (Brazil, China, India and South Africa) + Bangladesh and Senegal.

•SD PAM’s, WRI with ”the big four”


Development, Energy and Climate Approach

Country study work including assessment of energy policies with regard to implications on MDG’s and climate change.

Focal areas for SD indicators:•Costs, benefits and other general economic impacts.•Income generation and distribution.•Energy provision and distribution.•Environmental impacts.•Health impacts of energy use and access to health services.•Education•Local participation.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis using scenarios and models


Focal Study Areas

•The role of energy in SD seen in a macroeconomic context and at housholed level.

•Social, economic and environmental impacts of energy scenarios.

•The impacts of including GHG emission reduction in national policies.

Case study results for China, India, and South Africa are shown


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1=10

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Brazil People's Republic of ChinaDenmark IndiaSouth Africa


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Table 7 Average Production Costs of Fossil Fuel Based Power Production and Electricity Prices Countries Average cost of power production in

2000 (USD cents, 2000 prices/kWh) Average price of power in 2000 paid by private consumers (USD cents, 2000 prices/kWh)

People's Republic of China #

0.03 0.06

Denmark2 2 25 India 2.8 4.3 South Africa 0.6 1.4 United States * 2.2 8.243

Sources: # NDRC, 2006 * www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/fig7p4.html, visited on 14 August 2006. 2 Based on average electricity spot market prices and Energy Statistics 2004 page 43 (EPA, 2005) 3 For residential consumers, Energy Information Administration, Official Energy Statistics from the US government, 2006


Table 8 Household Expenditure on Energy for Indian Households in 2000 and Chinese Households in 2004

India rural, 2000 India urban, 2000 China urban, 2004

HH income category

Absolute expenditure (USD, 2000 prices)

% share of total HH expenditure





Poorest 0-5% 0,46 10,2% 0,65 10,9% 3,00 10,3% 0-10% 0,51 10,1% 0,80 10,7% 3,33 9,8% 10-20% 0,62 9,0% 1,04 10,5% 4,10 8,7% 20-40% 0,73 8,7% 1,46 10,1% 4,79 7,9% 40-60% 0,97 8,9% 1,73 9,6% 5,57 7,2% 60-80% 1,15 8,6% 2,13 8,9% 6,55 6,6% 80-90% 1,44 8,1% 2,67 7,8% 7,67 6,0% Top 90-100% 1,79 7,2% 4,01 5,7% 10,10 5,0%


People's Republic of China

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exed

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GDP (RS) TPES (RS) CO2 (RS)

GDP (AS) TPES (AS) CO2 (AS)

GDP increases to indexed 7031 (RS) and 7013 (AS)


India

0

100

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400SO2/TPES

TPES/GDP

CO2/GDP

CO2/TPES

Renewable share in powergeneration

Investments in new powerplants

Efficiency of electricitygeneration (fossil)

Per capita electricity

2000 2010 2020 2030

China

0

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400

500SO2/TPES

TPES/GDP

CO2/GDP

CO2/TPES

Renewable share in powergeneration

Investments in new powerplants

Efficiency of electricitygeneration (fossil)


2000 2010 2020 2030

South Africa

0

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400SO2/TPES

TPES/GDP

CO2/GDP

CO2/TPES

Renewable share in power generation

Investments in new power plants

Efficiency of electricity generation(fossil)


2000 2010 2020 2030


Policy Impacts -China

Clean Coal Technologies will provide:

•Energy security.

•Large employment to low income families that are employed with the production of the technologies (7.6 mill people in 2004 and 7.8 mill. people in 2030).

•Establishment of a strong position for China on international markets for cleaner coal technologies.

•Reduction in local and global emissions.


SD Policies and Measures - Approach

SD PAM’s are defined as policies and measures taken by a country in pursuit of its domestic policy objectives.

Criteria for SD PAM’s:

•Specific national development objectives.

•Can include specific legislative or executive acts, regulations, various instruments, and public-private partnership. Solely private projects or initiatives are excluded.

•GHG emissions should be reduced.

•Suggested as a basis for climate change commitments.


SD PAM Case Study Results•China: Motorization trends.

•India: Rural electrification.

•South Africa: Carbon capture and storage.

•Brazil: Biofuels for transport.

•Issues include energy security, non-energy sectors, international agreements/finance.


Adaptation Focused Studies

OECD project Bridge Over Troubled Water

•Case studies for Egypt, Fiji, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tanzania, and Uruguay.

•General lessons:

•Climate Change is already affecting development.

•Future climate change may also need consideration in development planning.

•A significant portion of development assistance is directed at climate sensitive sectors. Range 50-65% in Nepal to 12-26% in Tanzania.

•Development activities routinely overlook climate change and often also variability.


Adaptation Focused Studies, ContinuedProposed activities:

•Making climate information more relevant (including short term forecasts and variability).

•Developing and applying climate risk screening tools (including at project level).

•Identifying and using appropriate entry points for climate information (EIA, land use planning).

•Shifting emphasis to implementation.

•Encouraging meaningfull coordination

and the sharing of good practices

(private/public, international climate policies).


International Climate Policies

Asian consultations on climate regime beyond. 2012, IGES. Dialogues with China, India, Indonesia, Korea, and Vietnam.

Ideas for strenthening the future climate regime from an Asian perspective:

•Developmental concerns, in particular energy security, should be addressed as a priority. Due consideration of equity.

•Flexibility in accomodating national conditions. Mitigation and adaptation differentiation.

•CDM projects with SD impacts.

•Mainstreaming of adaptation.

•Finance including flexible inter-governmental approaches and private finance.

•Capacity sthrengtening for Asian negotiatos and NGO’s.


Cross-cutting Conclusions

•Mitigation policies have to be framed in the context of SD.

•Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy security and costs this can imply increasing CO2 intensity of energy consumption.

•GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond baseline issues.

•Energy access and affordability issues are to be integral elements.


Cross-cutting Conclusions

•Climate change impacts already today influence major development priorities.•Very limited information and capacities are available for mainstreaming.•Mainstreaming need to be anchored in EIA and national planning, integrated in project implementation now.•SD framework is still not deeveloped as a framework that can be used in international climate cooperation despite various attempts are done by SD-PAM’s, Asian dialogues and other initiatives.


Proposed New Activities• Link SD and Climate scenarios with stabilisation scenarios and

future international scenario work.

Integrated Modeling Application for India: Development, Technological Change and Climate Stabilization

Indian Emission Scenarios and Stabilization

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IA2

IB2

IB1

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IA1T


Proposed Activities, Continued….. •Integrate adaptation and mitigation studies:

•Methodological framework.

•Case examples on agriculture/energy, water/agriculture, energy/agriculture, biomass etc.

•Emphasis social impact analysis e.g. using household expenditure data and time series.

•Integrated local environmental impacts and health issues.

•Address key energy sector issues including:

•Energy security.

•Finance.

•The future role of coal and renewable energy.

•Draw general conclusions about replicability of case study lessons.

•Link to international climate policy regimes.

Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated Development and Climate Policies

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