Symposium on evidence based decision making
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Transcript of Symposium on evidence based decision making
Symposium on evidence based decision making
The role of Analysis Phase in the development of Integrated Development
Plans (IDPs)
Themba MohotoStatistics South Africa
10 October 2013
PRESENTATION CONTENT
Observations Integrate Development Planning In-depth Analysis of available data Overview of the Analysis Phase of the IDP
process Percentage indicators used in Free State Indicators from Census 2011 as primary
source of data Conclusion
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
The following observations are made with regard to
some IDPs:• The documents cover different financial years.
Therefore the contexts and circumstances differ.• The IDPs do not provide enough statistical
information to substantiate the claims that have been made in the documents.
• The qualitative AND quantitative analysis of the IDPs is very shallow. Documents simply mention some areas as being problematic without providing context and explanation to justify the claim.
• Indicators are not standardised nor classified in such a way that relevant outputs can be linked to outcomes. This leads to difficulty in implementing monitoring and evaluation (M&E))
• Insufficient data to support the development of plans
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Integrated Development Planning is an approach to planning that involves the entire municipality and its citizens in finding the best solutions to achieve good long-term development.
An Integrated Development Plan is a super plan for an area that gives an overall framework for development. It aims to co-ordinate the work of local and other spheres of government in a coherent plan to improve the quality of life for all the people living in an area.
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
• Before starting the planning, an IDP Process Plan must be drawn up. This plan is meant to ensure the proper management of the planning process.
• The process undertaken to produce the IDP consists of 5 phases:
PHASE 1: ANALYSIS (Stats SA) PHASE 2: STRATEGIES PHASE 3: PROJECTS PHASE 4: INTEGRATION PHASE 5: APPROVAL
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF DATA
• In-depth analysis provides an overall spatial picture of the municipality in terms of the current situation, patterns and trends within the municipal area.
• Information gathering should be focused on the implications for the development of the municipality area.
• The information should be systematically unpacked around key sectors:
– Bio-physical [geology, soil and climate] – Socio-economic [people and economy] – Built environment [housing, sewerage, transport]
ANALYSIS MATRIX
.
Communities
Bio-Physical Environment
Built Environment
Socio/EconomicEnvironment
• Energy• Telecoms• Solid Waste• Sewerage• Water Supply• Housing• Transport• Urban Settlement
• Agriculture• Mining• Vegetation• Topography• Hydrology• Climate• Geology & Soils
• Land Reform• Tourism• Investment• Economics• Income & Poverty• Crime• Employment• Education• Growth trends• Demography
Components of the Matrix
BUILT ENVIRONMENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC BIO-PHYSICAL
EnergyTelecoms
Sound wasteSewerage
Water SupplyHousing
TransportUrban Settlement
Land reformTourism
InvestmentsEconomy
Income & PovertyCrime
EmploymentHealth
EducationGrowth trendsDemography
AgricultureMining
VegetationTopographyHydrology
ClimateGeology & Soil
BUILT ENVIRONMENT
SOCIO-ECONOMICENVIRONMENT
BIO-PHYSICALENVIRONMENT
EnergyTelecoms
Sound wasteSewerage
Water SupplyHousing
TransportUrban Settlement
Land reformTourism
InvestmentsEconomy
Income & PovertyCrime
EmploymentHealth
EducationGrowth trendsDemography
AgricultureMining
VegetationTopographyHydrology
ClimateGeology & Soil
OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYSIS PHASE OF THE IDP
In-depth analysis of Priority Issues:
Municipality-level Analysis
Economic Analysis Environmental Analysis Institutional Analysis Spatial Analysis
Socio-economic Analysis
DETAILS OF ANALYSIS PHASE
Migration
12
Development
IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT
13
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Age
Sex
Size
Spatial DistributionMovement
SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT
POLITICAL
SUSTAINABLEURBAN
DEVELOPMENT
SOCIALECONOMIC
EVIRONMENTAL DEMOGRAPHIC
• Role of the state• Democratic institutions• Participatory planning
• Urban fiscal base• Access to adequate income
• Basic needs• Human rights
• Fertility• Migration• Ethnicity
• Sustainable use of renewable resources• Minimal use of non-renewable resources• Appropriate physical planning
PERCENTAGE OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC
INDICATORS USED IN FREE
IDP Indicators used – FS District and Metro
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Perc
enta
ge
no indicator 60% 54% 56% 65% 51%
% of variable used 40% 46% 44% 35% 49%
LejweleputswaMangaung
MetroXhariep
Thabo Mofutsanyana
Fezile Dabi
IDP Sources used – FS District and Metro
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Perc
enta
ge
Nothing said 59.7% 55.6% 55.6% 59.7% 56.9%
Own 18.1% 23.6% 8.3% 36.1% 26.4%
No Source 4.2% 0.0% 12.5% 2.8% 1.4%
Other 15.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 8.3%
Stats SA&Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stats SA 2.8% 18.1% 22.2% 0.0% 6.9%
Lejweleputswa Mangaung Metro XhariepThabo
MofutsanyanaFezile Dabi
Number of Indicators within Municipalities
Matjhabe
ng
Nala Tokologo
Masilonyane
Tswelopel
e
Le-jweleputswa
Mo-hoka
re
Letsemen
g
Naledi
Ko-panong
Mangaun
g
Xhariep
Maluti a Pho-fung
Nketoana
Mantsop
a
Dih-labeng
Phumele
la
Set-soto
Thabo
Mo-fut-san-yana
Moqhaka
Mafube
Ng-wath
e
Met-simaholo
Fez-ile
Dabi
% of variable used
0.37500000000000
1
0.125
0.20833333333333
4
0.30555555555555
6
0.68055555555555
6
0.40277777777777
8
0.38888888888889
0.30555555555555
6
0.34722222222222
3
0.44444444444444
5
0.45833333333333
3
0.44444444444444
5
0.30555555555555
6
0.25 0.37500000000000
1
0.45833333333333
3
0.34722222222222
3
0.37500000000000
1
0.34722222222222
3
0.43055555555555
6
0.29166666666666
7
0.48611111111111
1
0.47222222222222
2
0.48611111111111
1
no indicator
0.62500000000000
1
0.87500000000000
1
0.79166666666666
7
0.69444444444444
6
0.31944444444444
5
0.59722222222222
2
0.61111111111111
2
0.69444444444444
6
0.65277777777777
9
0.55555555555555
6
0.54166666666666
7
0.55555555555555
6
0.69444444444444
6
0.75000000000000
1
0.62500000000000
1
0.54166666666666
7
0.65277777777777
9
0.62500000000000
1
0.65277777777777
9
0.56944444444444
5
0.70833333333333
4
0.51388888888888
9
0.52777777777777
8
0.51388888888888
9
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
95%P
erc
en
tage
WHAT CENSUS 2011 PROVIDES
CATEGORIES OF INDICATORS FROM CENSUS 2011
INDICATOR CATEGORY QUESTIONS
Section A: Demographics 6
Section B: Migration 13
Section C: General Health and Functioning 2
Section D: Parental Survival and Income 5
Section E: Education 6
Section E: Employment 13
Section G: Fertility 10
Section H: Housing, Household Services and Agriculture 20
Section I: Mortality in the Last 12 Months 10
TOTAL 85
DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES FROM CENSUS 2011
INDICATOR MEANING IMPLICATION FOR ANALYSIS
Date of birth This questions seeks to determine the date in which the responded was respondent born
Population size and spatial distribution by administrative unit and locality
Relationship This questions seeks to determine the relationship of the respondent to the head of the household
Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)
Marital Status This questions seeks to determine the marital status of the respondent
Reproductive behaviour patterns of the population (fertility, contraceptive practice, family size, household size and composition, etc.)
Spouse or Partner This questions seeks to determine who in the household is the spouse or partner
Reproductive behaviour patterns of the population (fertility, contraceptive practice, family size, household size and composition, etc.)
Population Group This questions seeks to determine the population group of the respondent
Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)
Language This questions seeks to determine the language of the respondent
Socio-cultural characteristics of the population (ethnic group, language, religion, etc.)
OTHER SOURCES OF DATA e.g. schools
SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE
SECONDARY DATA FROM EMIS DATABASE
CONCLUSIONS
• There is a challenge in making comparisons between metropolitan and district municipalities. This is because of the sheer size and different levels of complexity between them.
• The Analysis Phase is the most critical area in the IDP development
• The prerequisite for success in this area is to find relevant data
• Stats SA provide primary data but there is also secondary data in the form of administrative data
• It is recognised that necessary skills are required in this area
• There a number of training programs in place. What is required is alignment and partnerships
Government has committed large sums of funds for infrastructure
development. Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan in his National
Budget Speech 2013 said R827 billion on infrastructure projects
over the next three years is to be drawn from the fiscus and state-
owned enterprises. How to plan for this properly
Andreu (1998) speaks of the TUNNEL EFFECT
of contemporary networked infrastructure – the way and infrastructure can traverse space for those using it whilst simultaneously excluding
those who inhabit the immediate geographical environment
Graham, S (2000) ) “Introduction: cities and infrastructure networks”
THANK YOUThank you!