Swedish Commodity Swedish Commodity Flow Surveys EvaluatedFlow Surveys Evaluated

– Statistics Sweden’s Experiences and Survey Adjustments Since 2001

Session 10 ICES III Montreal 2007 Lars Werke

Assistant head at the unit for transport statistics Statistics Sweden

Outline of presentationOutline of presentation

• Background and purpose of the Swedish CFS.Background and purpose of the Swedish CFS.

• The Swedish CFS in perspective. The Swedish CFS in perspective.

• Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05

• A pragmatic data collection approachA pragmatic data collection approach

• Challenges ahead and conclusionsChallenges ahead and conclusions

Background and purposeBackground and purposeBackground and our comissioners

• Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications AnalysisSwedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis• Infrastructure agencies (SNRA, SCAA, SMA, NRA, Vinnova)Infrastructure agencies (SNRA, SCAA, SMA, NRA, Vinnova)

• Responsible for infrastructure planning in SwedenResponsible for infrastructure planning in Sweden• Long term Goods Model (SAMGODS)Long term Goods Model (SAMGODS)

• 6 Different Economic models for prognosis and scenario analysis6 Different Economic models for prognosis and scenario analysis• 2 Supply models , 2 Demand models 2 Effect models2 Supply models , 2 Demand models 2 Effect models

• Both demand models models goods flows in all 289 municipalitiesBoth demand models models goods flows in all 289 municipalities• Before CFS 2001 synthetic O-D matrix (not Before CFS 2001 synthetic O-D matrix (not observedobserved O-D flows) O-D flows)

Background and purposeBackground and purposeThe purpose of the survey

1.1. To give a statistical description of the annual To give a statistical description of the annual commodity flow within Sweden and between Sweden commodity flow within Sweden and between Sweden and foreign countries (with respect to weight/value, and foreign countries (with respect to weight/value, means of transportation, cargo type ,cargo size and means of transportation, cargo type ,cargo size and industry)industry)

2.2. Provide the SAMGODS models with the necessary Provide the SAMGODS models with the necessary datadata

The Swedish CFS in perspectiveThe Swedish CFS in perspective Statistics Sweden and transport

• No experience with multimodal statisticsNo experience with multimodal statistics

• Unimodal: sea goods and road goodsUnimodal: sea goods and road goods

• Regional CFS on county level Regional CFS on county level (ERG project 1988, Bjurklo)(ERG project 1988, Bjurklo)

• Contacted US Census Bureau (CFS 1993)Contacted US Census Bureau (CFS 1993)

• EU Mystic-project 1998 ”carrier based”- approachEU Mystic-project 1998 ”carrier based”- approach

• Decided on adopting Census Bureau approach Decided on adopting Census Bureau approach

• Test survey in 1996 and 1998 and first full-scale in 2001Test survey in 1996 and 1998 and first full-scale in 2001

The Swedish CFS in perspectiveThe Swedish CFS in perspective Swedish first CFS approach

• Stratified three-stage probability sample.Stratified three-stage probability sample.

• Aimed at Mining, Manufacturing and Wholesale sectorsAimed at Mining, Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors

• Stratification: Geography, Local unit size and Commodity groupStratification: Geography, Local unit size and Commodity group

• Three stage sampling –>Local unit->Time period->ShipmentsThree stage sampling –>Local unit->Time period->Shipments

• Questionnaire Questionnaire different from US, divided in to three partsdifferent from US, divided in to three parts

Part 1Part 1: Outgoing shipment to own county: Outgoing shipment to own county

Part 2Part 2: Outgoing shipment to other county and abroad: Outgoing shipment to other county and abroad

Part 3Part 3: Incoming shipments from abroad: Incoming shipments from abroad

• Parts as a register based survey (Forestry, AgricultureParts as a register based survey (Forestry, Agriculture))

Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05The CFS 2001The CFS 2001 results results

ProPro• Response rate Response rate 78,4 78,4 %%• Outgoing shipments Outgoing shipments 246 246 million tonnes. SEK million tonnes. SEK 1 9051 905 billion billion• Electronic reporting at Electronic reporting at 10,910,9% % • Commissioners content with quality and delivery Commissioners content with quality and delivery

ConCon• Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) • Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (Wholesale agents)Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (Wholesale agents)• Cut off limits (gas and oil)Cut off limits (gas and oil)• Undercoverage (sand and gravel)Undercoverage (sand and gravel)• Report burdenReport burden• We had to revise the statistical report.We had to revise the statistical report.

Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05Preparing for CFS 04/05Preparing for CFS 04/05

• Should cover more sectors of the economy.Should cover more sectors of the economy.

• Logistics model developed for SAMGODS. Logistics model developed for SAMGODS.

• Additional variables in the Additional variables in the questionnaire questionnaire (P-C) (PWC).(P-C) (PWC).

• Increase electronic reporting.Increase electronic reporting.

• Decrease report burden.Decrease report burden.

• Improve overall design.Improve overall design.

A pragmatic data collection approachA pragmatic data collection approachGoing for the low hanging fruitGoing for the low hanging fruit

• Tried to look at the structure in different sectors Tried to look at the structure in different sectors

• Transport cost in relation to commodity value/weight ratio.Transport cost in relation to commodity value/weight ratio.

• Company level: Did all the units belong to a few companies.Company level: Did all the units belong to a few companies.

• We thought of using different questionnaires.We thought of using different questionnaires.

• Administrative registers ”tracking” some goods were monitored.Administrative registers ”tracking” some goods were monitored.

• Large shipments by sea ”flagged” (paper mills etc.)Large shipments by sea ”flagged” (paper mills etc.)

• Training of staff, sector specific, (distribution etc.)Training of staff, sector specific, (distribution etc.)

• Developed of new simple control tools.Developed of new simple control tools.

A pragmatic data collection approachA pragmatic data collection approachAltered designAltered design

• Added admin. registers to avoid undercoverage (sand)Added admin. registers to avoid undercoverage (sand)

• A revision of cut off limits with a focus on the wholesale sector.A revision of cut off limits with a focus on the wholesale sector.

• Increased the registry based part of the survey.Increased the registry based part of the survey.

• AgriculturalAgricultural

• Energy sectorEnergy sector

• We suggested specific industry surveys We suggested specific industry surveys

• Petroleum (Oil & Gas)Petroleum (Oil & Gas)

• Cars and Trucks (Wholesale)Cars and Trucks (Wholesale)

• Corn & GrainCorn & Grain

A pragmatic data collection approachA pragmatic data collection approachAltered questionnaireAltered questionnaire

• Dropped ”ownership of goods” decided on ”handling of goods” Dropped ”ownership of goods” decided on ”handling of goods”

• Redesigned the questionnaire and instructions in to one formRedesigned the questionnaire and instructions in to one form

• Added new variables after a test (type of receiving industry) Added new variables after a test (type of receiving industry)

• We dropped ”hazmat” and advised against inclusion of PWC We dropped ”hazmat” and advised against inclusion of PWC

• Added control questionsAdded control questions , focus on large shipments, focus on large shipments

• Redesigned commodity code list. Redesigned commodity code list.

• Encouraged electronic reporting and complete data sets.Encouraged electronic reporting and complete data sets.

A pragmatic data collection approachA pragmatic data collection approachProPro• Response down from rate 78,4% in 2001 to Response down from rate 78,4% in 2001 to 73,6 73,6 % in 04/05% in 04/05• Outgoing shipments Outgoing shipments +15 +15 % to 282 Million tonnes% to 282 Million tonnes• Outgoing shipments Outgoing shipments +10+10 % to SEK 2 093 billion % to SEK 2 093 billion• Electronic reporting from 10,9% to Electronic reporting from 10,9% to 18 %18 %• Comparison to trade stat. export within Comparison to trade stat. export within 2 %2 %• Covered most of agricultural sector with admin. dataCovered most of agricultural sector with admin. data• Commissioners content with quality and deliveryCommissioners content with quality and delivery

ConCon• Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) • Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (wholesale agents)Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (wholesale agents)• Cut off limits (gas and oil)Cut off limits (gas and oil)• Undercoverage (sand and gravel)Undercoverage (sand and gravel)• Report burdenReport burden

Challenges ahead and conclusionsChallenges in 2009?Challenges in 2009?

• CFS 04/05 is being evaluated by the commissioners.CFS 04/05 is being evaluated by the commissioners.

• Report burden must decrease to improve response rate.Report burden must decrease to improve response rate.

• Evaluate only one part for outgoing shipments.Evaluate only one part for outgoing shipments.

• Combine collected admin. data with specific surveys.Combine collected admin. data with specific surveys.

• Improve measurement on imports.Improve measurement on imports.

• More industry specific surveys.More industry specific surveys.

• Improve overall designImprove overall design..

Challenges ahead and conclusions Conclusions or why does this work in SwedenConclusions or why does this work in Sweden

• Sweden is a small open economy.Sweden is a small open economy.

• Government admin. data is easily accessible to Government admin. data is easily accessible to Statistics Sweden.Statistics Sweden.

• The three stage sample design is a good approach.The three stage sample design is a good approach.

• The increased response burden of the Swedish CFS The increased response burden of the Swedish CFS called for a new data collection approach that also called for a new data collection approach that also improved coverage of the survey.improved coverage of the survey.

• Norway is preparing for a CFS with similar approachNorway is preparing for a CFS with similar approach

• EU commission working on ”Intermodal indicators”EU commission working on ”Intermodal indicators”

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention