Swain Hall West- 1st Floor

DVB office

007 Stairs

Student Services office (drop/add)

Secretary’s office

Swain Hall West- 2nd FloorPhysics Forum

Library

http://www.purdue.edu/energysummit/index.shtml

8:30 a.m

Mitch Daniels, Indiana Governor — WELCOMELoeb Playhouse, Stewart Center

8:45 a.m

Richard G. Lugar, U.S. Senator — KEYNOTE ADDRESS National security and energy policyLoeb Playhouse, Stewart Center

9:30 a.m

Martin C. Jischke, Purdue University PresidentOverview of energy research and policy issues; liquid fuels policy and national securityLoeb Playhouse, Stewart Center

2006

Some useful Websites for this Course

• http://www.eia.doe.gov/ (US DOE Energy Information Administration)

• http://www.iea.org/index.asp (International Energy Agency)

• http://www.epa.gov/ (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency).

• http://www.eere.energy.gov/ (U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency and renewable energy).

• https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html (CIA world fact book)

U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads)U.S. Energy Flow, 2005 (Quads)

5

85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels; 8% is from nuclear; 6% is from renewables.

Most imported energy is petroleum, which is used for transportation. The end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) all use

comparable amounts of energy.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/overview_hd.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf

Adding numbers requires the right UNITS!!

This sign makes no sense, you can’t add years and people!

Energy appetites for each sector

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pecss_diagram.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelrenewable.html

U.S Renewable energy sector (2005)

Energy Source Distribution

Energy Source Distribution

NOTE the differenceIn the nature of the mix!

U.S. Historical TrendsH&K fig 1.6, 1.7

U.S. Wind power since 1995

020406080

100120140160

1994 1999 2004

Series1Series2

From EIA website Annual Energy Report: 2005

18% annual growth

DATA

FIT

H&K fig. 1.3

Industrialized nations predicted to have 1%/yr growth, developing nations 3%/yr

September ’06 Sci. American

One potential source of articles for the article summary and/or term paper

Exponential Growth/Decay•Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself •“ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant)•For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus)•Solution to this is:

X=Xoert

ln(X) = ln(Xo) + rt

Exponential Growth/Decay•Time rate of change of X is PROPORTIONAL to X itself •“ y Proportional to x” => y=rx (r is a constant)•For our case here: dX/dt=rX (if you like calculus)•Solution to this is:

X=Xoert

ln(X) = ln(Xo) + rt

A subtle point•“Annual compounding” is not the same thing as “continuous compounding”, so you have to be a little careful with how you discuss annual growth rates. •True exponential growth with a rate of 7.5%/yr for two years gives an increase of:

X=Xoe0.075/yr*2yr =1.162*Xo •An “annually compounded” interest rate of 7.5%/yr gives:

X=Xo*(1.075)2 =1.156*Xo •i.e. e0.075 is not exactly equal to 1.075 (it’s really 1.07788, so it is slightly bigger). The difference between the two cases is greater if you consider greater periods of time.

Hubbert Curve

H&K fig. 1.11

World Coal Production Curve

Hubbert Curve

H&K fig. 1.11

Exponential extrapolation

World Coal Production Curve

Data

Hubbert Curve

H&K fig. 1.11

Exponential extrapolation

World Coal Production Curve

Data

Finite resource ->Final answer is 0

Exponential growth CANNOT be sustained in a World of FINITE resources!!

Hubbert Curves

H&K fig. 1.12 H&K fig. 1.13

US Oil production US Natural Gas production

COCO22 Concentrations and Temperature Change Concentrations and Temperature Change

Note that total temperature change across several ice ages was only about 12oC or about 22oF.

World Oil Prices since 1970(H&K fig. 1.14)

Energy Conversions (Table 2.2)

Incandescentlight

digestion

thermal