SUSTAINABLE MATERIALSwithbotheyesopen.com/materials/120201 ESD.pdf · Maintenance providers Factory...

SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS WITH BOTH EYES OPEN

JULIAN M ALLWOODUNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

COPYRIGHT JULIAN M ALLWOOD AND JONATHAN M CULLEN 2012. THIS ELECTRONIC COPY IS PROVIDED, FREE, FOR PERSONAL USE ONLY

Steel, aluminium and climate change

Focus on CO2

• IPCC says it’s urgent

• Steel and aluminium have a big impact but not receiving much attention

Key challenges

• Scale

• Uncertainty

• Estimates

Buildings31%

Other7%

Transport27%

Industry35%

Energy/ process

emissions 28 GtCO2

Other45%

Aluminium 3% Plastic

4%

Paper4%

Cement19%

Steel25%

Industrial carbon

emissions 10 GtCO2


Steel1,040 Mt

Aluminium45 Mt

Steel and aluminium in use

Cars and light trucks

93 Mt 9 %

Trucks and ships

28 Mt 3 %

Infrastructure

150 Mt 14 %

Metal goods

134 Mt 12 %

Domestic appliances

29 Mt 3 %

Electrical equipment

27 Mt 3 %

Mechanical equipment

137 Mt 13 % Consumer

packaging

9 Mt 1 %

Buildings

433 Mt 42 %

Image: Jaguar

Cars 8 Mt 18 %

Trucks

3 Mt 7 %

Other transport

1 Mt 2 %

Other products

4 Mt 9 %

Packaging6 Mt 13 %

Appliances

3 Mt 7 %

Buildings

11 Mt 24 %

Electrical equipment

2 Mt 4 %

Electrical cable

4 Mt 9 %

Mechanical equipment

3 Mt 7 %


Demand for steel and aluminium

ChallengeOver the next 40 years we expect demand to double, but must halve our CO2 emissions

Production stabilises ...

Production + recycling

stocks stabilise ... so we can forecast demand

ApproachForecast flows, anticipate emissions factors, predict business shape

0

3000

1500

Mt/

yr

1960 2005 2050

Secondary production

Primary production

0

16

8

Stoc

k (t

onne

s/pe

rson

)

1900 2000 2100

US

France

Japan

Canada

China India

UK

0

4

12

8

Stoc

k (t

onne

s/pe

rson

)

2000197519501900

2000200019751950195019001900

0 10,000 20,000 30,000GDP ($/person/year)

0

250

1000

750

500

Prod

uctio

n (k

g/pe

rson

/yea

r)

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000


Global flows of steel

Messages• 1/4 of liquid steel never reaches

products but is scrapped in production• end-of-life scrap is less than

half of the scrap input

Blast furnace

Steelmaking Casting Rolling / Forming Fabrication End-use productsReduction

Forming scrap

Fabrication scrap

Cast iron scrap

Iron ore

Direct reduction

Oxygen blown furnace

Continuouscasting (slab)

Continuous casting (billet)

Continuous casting (bloom)

IngotPrimary mill

Hot strip mill

Cold rolling mill Cold rolled coil

End-of-lifescrap

Electrical strip

Cladding

Infrastructure

Reinforcing

Structural

Electrical

Mechanical

Cars

TrucksOther

Other

Appliances

Packaging

Construction

Industrial equipment

Vehicles

Metal products

Hot rolled coil

CRC coatedCRC galv.

HRC galv.

Reinforcing bar

Wire rod

Hot rolled bar

Seamless tube

Heavy sectionLight sectionRail section

Cast steelCast iron

Welded pipe

HR narrow strip

Plate

Tin plated

Plate mill

Rod and bar mill

Section mill

Steel product casting

Iron foundry casting

Electric furnace

Scrappreparation

Open hearth furnace

Global demand in 2008 for steel products

= 1,040 million tonnes


Process energy analysis — steel

• Process energy data is commercially sensitive and incomplete

• Energy for producing liquid metal dominates for both metals

Images: worldsteel

Blast furnace

16 EJ 7 %

Direct reduction

0.7 EJ

Steel (overall)Energy = 38 EJ Electricity = 39 %

Basic oxygen furnace

0.2 EJ

Continuous casting

0.4 EJ 74 %

Rolling 3.6 EJ 46 %

Fabrication6-11 EJ

70 %

Shape casting

2.1 EJ 46 %

Coating 0.6 EJ 46 %

Forming 0.2 EJ 82%Electric arc

furnace2.7 EJ 86 %


Global flows of aluminium

Messages• 40% of liquid metal never reaches

products but is scrapped in production• Aluminium recycling mainly leads

to casting alloys for engine blocks

Alumina

Electrolysis / Melting Casting Rolling / Forming / Casting Fabrication End-use products

Electrolysis

Remelting

Refining

Casting

Casting Shape casting

Hot rolling Cold rolling Foil rolling

Cold rolled sheet

Fabrication scrap

End-of-life scrap

Forming scrap

Forming scrap

Fabrication scrap Infrastructure

Structural

Non-structural

Cable

Electrical

Mechanical

Cars

Other

Other

Durables

Packaging foil Drinks cans

Construction


Vehicles

Metal products

Plate

Foil

Hot rolled strip

Die castings

Other

Sand castings

Permanent castings

Cable / wire

Extrusions

Extrusion

Wire drawing

Global demand in 2007 for aluminium products

= 45 million tonnes


Process energy analysis — aluminium

• Process energy data is commercially sensitive and incomplete

• Energy for producing liquid metal dominates for both metals

Electrolysis 5.0 EJ

100 %

Alumina mining

+refining 1.1 EJ

2 %

Ingot casting 0.05 EJ

44 %

Alloy ingot casting 0.03 EJ

44 %

Scrap refining

0.15 EJ 14 %

Scrap remelting

0.04 EJ 30 %

Shape casting 0.17 EJ

1 %

Fabrication

0.3-0.6 EJ 70 %

Rolling 0.23 EJ

72 %

Extrusion +drawing

0.09 EJ 19 %

Aluminium (overall)Energy = 7.6 EJ Electricity = 76 %


Business structure

Landowners

Consumers

GovernmentNGOs

Lobby groupsTrade associations

Insurance providersUniversities

Financial servicesScrap

merchants

Mining industry

Refiners

Steel+ aluminiumindustries

Fabricators

Stockholders

Construction


Metal products

Vehicles

Demolition companies

Estate agents

Utility companies

Developers PlannersSurveyors

Architects

Building engineers

Contractors +tradesmen

Equipment manufacturers

Part suppliers


users

Maintenanceproviders

Factory designers

Retailers

Appliance manufacturers

Food industry

Fillers

Packagingmanufacturers

Consumer goods industry

Shipbuilders

Energy providers

Aircraft manufacturers

Airlines

Car + truck manufacturers

Logisticscompanies

Maintenance providers

Dealers

Leasingcompanies

Food and drink

Mining and minerals

Steel

Aluminium

Metal products

Transport goods

Machinery and equipment

Other manufacturing

Utilities

Construction

Transport services

Other business and public

services

Food and drink

Mining and minerals

Steel

Aluminium

Metal products

Transport goodsMachinery and equipment

Other manufacturingUtilities

Construction

Transport servicesOther business and public services


The story so far ...

The world of steel and aluminium

• Demand is likely to double but we want to halve emissions in 40 years

• Recycling rates are already high

• Most energy is used in upstream liquid metal production

• The cost of these metals is a small fraction of the price of final goods

• Forecasting depends on future flows and future emissions factors

Looking ahead ‘with one eye open’ — emissions factors

• The easiest solution for everyone is to reduce emissions factors

• Is it possible to reduce them by 75%?

Looking ahead ‘with both eyes open’ — metal flows

• Do we have other options if we consider changing the flows?


With one eye open — energy efficiency?

Coke26%

Gas 6.5%

Ferrous rawmaterials 40%

Other 24%

Electricity3.6%

Steelproduction

costs

Energy 35%

Other 3%

Alumina 25%

Labour+othermaterials37%

Aluminiumproduction

costs

About one third of the cost of producing both metals is to purchase energy

... as a result both industries already seek every possible energy efficiency - and both are within sights of Gibbs’ theoretical limit

0

15

60

45

30

GJ/

t cru

de s

teel

1975 2009

Theoretical minimum = 6.6 GJ/t

Best practice = 12.5 GJ/t

Average

4

0

12

MW

h/t a

lum

iniu

m

1980 2009

8

16

Theoretical minimum = 9 MWh/t

Average

Best practice = 13 MWh/t


With one eye open — heat capture?

Tem

pera

ture

(ºC)

0

450

900

1350

1800

Time

Cast

ing

Hot

wor

k

Hea

t tre

atm

ent

Primary processesRebarCar bodyForged mining partChassis plateWire

Hot rolling

Electricity generation

Losses

Primary energy

Hot metal

CastingESP

Electricity generation

Losses

Primary energy

Hot metal

• We could cut out heating cycles, but this will deny some economies of scale

• Heat capture from hot gases is common, from solids is more difficult

Image: Siemens


With one eye open — new process routes?

Used gasGas scrubber

Gasscrubber

Used gas

Coolcleangas

Iron ore pellets

Directly reduced iron ready for

the electricarc furance

Reformer

Natural gas

Reformed gas

Oxygen

Meltingcyclone

O� gasduct

Smeltingreductionvessel

Molten oxide + electrolyte

Stee

l she

ll

Metal pool

Current feed

Collector bar

-

+

Anode Anode

Cell �oor

Frozenelectrolyte

Oxygen gasbubbles

Liquidcathode

Cellsidewall

Point feeders breakcrust and introduce

metal oxide here

-+ +-

Aluminium Pool

O�gas

AluminiumVapour

recovery Vapour

recovery

Aluminaand carbonfeed

Direct reduced iron (to EAF)

Multipolar electrolysis cell

Carbothermic reduction

Inert anodes

Smelt reduction + CCS

Iron ore pyroelectrolysis

Aluminium

Steel

Images: worldsteel


With one eye open — clean electricity?

1.25 W/m2 0.2 W/m2 0.3 W/m2 1.95 W/m2

Credit: David MacKay


With one eye open — carbon capture + storage

Infinite potential provided someone else pays for it ...• The novel steel routes require electricity or storage

• There won’t be enough ‘renewable’ electricity - so nuclear or fossil and storage

• Globally there are 3 small test sites in operation - yet the IEA is forecasting up to 25% of all emissions will be stored within 40 years

2

1 5

3

4

1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs2. Use of CO2 in enhanced oil recovery3. Deep unused saline water-saturated reservoir rocks4. Deep unmineable coal seams5. Use of CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

Images: worldsteel

Image: CO2CRC


With one eye open — scenarios

With one eye open• Both industries are already motivated to pursue energy

efficiency - there are very few options left

• Ideas for innovation depend either on ‘clean electricity’ or carbon storage, or both - and are a long way from widespread use

• Even with the most optimistic projections, we cannot possibly halve emissions by 2050 if demand doubles

Aluminium

Steel

0 1 2 3 54

Gt CO2

BAU

Process E�ciency Options

6

Target

Current (2008)

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.51.2

Gt CO2

BAU

Process E�ciency Options

Current (2007)

1.8

Target


With both eyes open — what else can we do?

Alumina

Electrolysis / Melting Casting Rolling / Forming / Casting Fabrication End-use products

Electrolysis

Aluminium

Aluminium Remelting

Aluminium

Refining

Casting

Casting Shape casting

Slab

Billet

Alloy ingot

Hot rolling Cold rolling Foil rolling

Cold rolled sheet

Fabrication scrap

End-of-life scrap

Forming scrap

Forming scrap

Fabrication scrap Infrastructure

Non-structural in buildings

Electricalcable

Mechanical

Cars

Other

Other

Consumer durables

Packaging foil

Drinks cans


Vehicles

Metal products

Plate

Foil

Hot rolled strip

Die castings

Other

Sand castings

Permanent mould castings

Cable / wire

Extrusions

Extrusion

Wire drawing

Global demand in 2007 for aluminium products

= 45 million tonnes

Re-use old metal

Divert scrap

Reduce yield loss

Use less by design

Longer life goods

Reducedemand


With both eyes open — use less by design5 principles of lightweight design

1. Support multiple loads together

2. Don’t over-specify the loads

3. Align loads with members to avoid bending

4. Optimise the cross-section for bending

5. Choose the best material

Barriers Loads before use

Asymmetric risks

Manufacturing

OpportunitiesOther supports

Rewrite standards

New processes

α1

α2


We scrap more than a quarter of our liquid metal• Blanking, trimming and machining

are the main causes

• Additive manufacture does not provide a solution

• Novel forming processes are required combined with casting to make intermediate products closer to final shapes

With both eyes open — reduce yield losses

0

100%

50%

I-beam

Steel

Aluminium

Car doors Drinkscan

Wingskin

0

10

20

Cumulative Yield (t output/t liquid steel)

Cum

ulativ

e pro

cess

ener

gy (G

J/t liq

uid st

eel)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Liquidsteel

Doorpanel

40 GJ/t30 GJ/t

20 GJ/t


With both eyes open — diverting scrap

If we can’t eliminate yield losses can we divert scrap?• Trim and sell sheet and plate skeletons

• Solid bonding of aluminium swarf

• Market for over-ordered stock


With both eyes open — re-use without melting

Steel re-use in construction has begun• Certification and irregular supply are problems

• Availability in the UK is rapidly increasing

• Profit possible but decision timing is a challenge

Old building

Deconstruction

Design

Recondition/Certi�cation

Fabricate

Construction

New building

Identify source building

Strip building anddeconstruct frame

Design around availablestock to minimize overuse

Clean, remove �xings;coupon (or other) test;negotiate insurance

Cut and weld

As normal

Share messages

0

250

1000

750

500

Year

Tonn

age

per y

ear (

kt)

1900 1970 2040

Annual consumption of structural sections

Predicted annual availability of reclaimed sections

200

02006

2009

400

600

800

Pro�t opportunity

Reconditioning costs

Deconstruction cost

Compensation for scrap

£ (2

009)

per

tonn

e

Year

Building unoccupied

Demolition

Project timeline

Construction Decision points


With both eyes open — longer life products

Time

Cum

ulat

ive

Emis

sion

s

More frequent replacement

Less frequent replacement

0

2000

8000

4000

Time

Cum

ulat

ive

Pro�

t (£)

6000

No upgrade, replace every 10 years

No upgrade, replace every 15 years

5 yearly upgrade, replace every 15 years

Control systems (5yr)

Work rolls (2-5yr)

Back-up rolls (15yr)

Motors (20yr)

Cooling/hydraulic systems (20yr)

Gearboxes (40yr)

Structure (40-100yr)

50% 100%0%

Steel Share

Steel striprolling mill

Cost Share

... relative to when it was purchased

... relative to what’s now available

The product’s perfor-mance has declined ...

Degradede.g. rail track

Inferiore.g. washing machines

The product’s value has declined ...

Unsuitablee.g. sports car

Unwantede.g. single hulled oil tankers


With both eyes open — reducing final demand

If not material efficiency, then demand reduction?• More intense use?

• Deliver the material service with less material?

• Consume less?

0%

100%

50%

Income per head ($/year)

Happ

iness

0 40,00020,000

USAJapan

New Zealand Netherlands

Russia

SERVICESPACE

END OFPHYSICAL LIFE

USE PROFILE

POINT OFDISCARD

DESIGNCAPACITY

Use morefrequently

Time

Inte

nsity

of us

e

Increase capacity

Reduce capacity

Pass on

Repair or upgrade Make more

durable

Use at full design

capacity


With both eyes open — scenario building

For all products• Establish current averages

• Anticipate future limits for each option

• Validate with industry partners

Less metalby design

Reuse ofcomponents

Life extension

More intense use

0%

40%

100kg/m2

72 kg/m2

40years

80years

40hr/wk

80hr/wk

Less metalby design

Yield lossreduction

Scrapdiversion

Reuse ofcomponents

Life extension

More intense use

0%

85%

40%

20%

0%

30%

1300kg

300kg

14years

20years

500p-km/wk

1000p-km/wk


With both eyes open — scenario analysis

0 1 2 3 54

Gt CO2

BAU

Process e�ciency

6

Target

Process+ materiale�ciency

Current (2008)

0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.51.2

Gt CO2

BAU

Process E�ciency

1.8

Target

Process + materiale�ciency

Material E�ciency

Current (2007)Aluminium

Steel0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Less

met

alby

desig

n

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Mor

eint

ense

use

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Scra

pdiv

ersio

n

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Reus

e of

com

pone

nts

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Yield

loss

redu

ction

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Life

Exte

nsion

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Less

met

alby

desig

n

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Mor

eint

ense

use

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Scra

pdiv

ersio

n

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Reus

e of

com

pone

nts

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Yield

loss

redu

ction

0%

50%

25%

75%

100%

Life

Exte

nsion

Life extension, more intense use and using less metal by design are the most effective strategies

With both eyes open we have enough options to cut emissions by 50%


Implementation

Office block

Rolling mill

Car Fridge

Mass of liquid steel (kg/pers/yr) 43 1.7 58 2.6

Spending (£/pers/yr) 560 6 600 13

Equivalent labour (hrs/pers/yr) 50 0.3 33 1

2050 liquid steel (kg/pers/yr) 13 0.5 17 0.8


Conclusions • With one eye open: we cannot reduce emissions enough

if demand for new material grows as forecast

• With both eyes open: we have a lot of options for living well with less new material

www.withbotheyesopen.com

www.wellmet2050.com

@SMWBEO


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