Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC...

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Sustainable Land Management Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne

Transcript of Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC...

Page 1: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Sustainable Land Management Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon through Soil Organic Carbon Management and SequestrationManagement and Sequestration

The GEFSOC Modelling System

Mohamed Sessay

Eleanor Milne

Page 2: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Overview of PresentationOverview of Presentation

• Background

• Why assess SOC stocks and change

• Regional Approaches

• GEFSOC Project: Aims and Objectives

• Methodology: GEFSOC Project Approach

• Final Output

Page 3: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

BackgroundBackground

Importance of Soil Organic Carbon

Soils represent largest terrestrial stock of C, holding between 1400 x1015 g (Post et al 1982) and 1500 x 1015 g C (Batjes, 1996)

Approximately 2x the amount in atmosphere and 3x amount in terrestrial vegetation

Majority of C is held in form of soil organic carbon (SOC) (Batjes & Sombreck, 1997)

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Changes in terrestrial SOC stocks (both increase and decrease) can be of global significance and may either mitigate or worsen climate change

SOC is vital for ecosystem functions with major influence on:

- Soil structure, Water holding capacity

- CEC

- Ability to form complexes with metal ion

- Fertility (to store nutrients)

- Above and below ground biodiversity

Page 5: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Why Assess SOC Stocks and Changes?Why Assess SOC Stocks and Changes?

Knowledge of SOC stocks and changes would help us device plans for:

Appropriate management of soils to increase SOC levels to increase productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems

The sustainable management of ecosystems

The mitigation of GHG emissions

The likely impact of climate change on soils/ecosystems in the future (Jones et al 2004)

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The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol - CO2 emissions can be offset against removal of C from the atmosphere

1st commitment period 2008 – 2012

Article 3.3, forestry activities Article 3.4, management of agricultural soils

Changes before 2008?

UNFCCC -Inventories of CO2 emissions from LUC

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Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?

Native Ecosystem

Agriculture

SOC decline

Rothamsted long term experimentsVersailles long term experiments

SOC is sensitive to changes in land use

Page 8: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?

Knowledge of SOC stocks and changes would help us device plans for:

Appropriate management of soils to increase SOC levels to increase productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems

The sustainable management of ecosystems

The mitigation of GHG emissions

The likely impact of climate change on soils/ecosystems in the future (Jones et al 2004)

Page 9: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Important Areas GloballyImportant Areas Globally

Rates of land use change greatest in the tropics

Feed 70% of the population (Lal and Sanchez 1992)

Increasing demand for land will be met by converting forest and pasture – C release

~ 26% of global SOC stocks are in the tropics (Batjes 1996)

Relatively little information on soils and how they react to land use change

The Tropics

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Important Areas GloballyImportant Areas Globally

Low SOC stocks per unit area

Occupy ~47% of land surface (Lal 2003)

Many areas are degraded with the potential for rehabilitation

Drylands

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Problem of ScaleProblem of Scale

Plot Scale Many studies, site specific, limited value

Global Scale

Regional and National Scale

Allows consideration of varying land use policy, relevant to resource management

Informative, limited affect on policy at ground level

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A generically applicable systems for estimating SOC stocks at national or regional scale is necessary to:

Increase the accuracy of global estimates of SOC stocks and changes

 Understand the consequences of land use change for the global C cycle

 Understand the GHG mitigation potential of changes in land use/land management

Identify geographic areas with potential for C release or sequestration

Allow countries in tropical and arid areas to take advantage of opportunities presented through global carbon trading, (CDMs)

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Regional ApproachesRegional Approaches

Approaches used estimate changes in SOM/SOC include

IPCC inventory method:- Series of factors (climate, soil type, history, tillage &

productivity) 20 year period Identifies changes between first and last year of the 20 year

period Simple accounting method Soil C stock is a function of soil C under native vegetation and

changes in land use or land management

Page 14: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Regional ApproachesRegional Approaches

Statistical approaches:

Regression based approaches (Gupta and Rao 1994, Smith et al 2000, 2001)

Regression approaches based on spatial soil databases (Kern and Johnson 1993, Kotto-Same et al 1997)

Local variability in soil conditions

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Process Based Modelling Approach

3. Dynamic SOM models linked to spatial data bases

Spatial DatabasesSimulatio

nmodel

ActiveSOM

SlowSOM

PassiveSOM

Residues

PlantGrowth

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2

Spatial Results

Page 16: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Aims of GEFSOC ProjectAims of GEFSOC Project

– To improve national assessment methodologies relating to land use options and UNFCC requirements and to support core activities of the GEF IEM OP and IPCC by developing and demonstrating a generic tool that quantifies impact of land use/management and climate change scenarios on carbon sequestration in soils at the national and regional scale

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Specific Research ObjectivesSpecific Research Objectives

Identify and use long term experimental data sets to systematically evaluate and refine modelling techniques to quantify carbon sequestration potential in tropical soils

Define, collate and format national-scale soils, climate and land use data sets to use them in development of a coupled modelling-GIS tool to estimate soil carbon stocks

Demonstrate this tool by estimating current soil organic carbon stocks at the national and regional scale (using The Brazil Amazon, The Indo-Gangetic Plains, India, Jordan and Kenya as case studies) and to compare these estimates with the existing techniques of combining soil mapping units and interpolating point data

Quantify the impact of defined changes in land use on carbon sequestration in soils with a view to assisting in the formulation of improved policies to optimise resource use in the four case study countries Brazil, India, Jordan and Kenya

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Case StudiesCase Studies

Brazilian Amazon

Jordan

Kenya Indogangetic Plains, India

Page 19: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

MethodologyMethodology

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Page 20: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

GEFSOC Project ApproachGEFSOC Project Approach

Two soil organic carbon models were chosen

Roth-C (developed in the UK) is a SOM model that accounts for the effects of soil type, climate, moisture content and plant cover on turnover of organic C in soils. Uses monthly time-step to calculate total SOC and microbial biomass content

Century (developed in the United States) is a general ecosystem model which stimulates the dynamic of C, N, P and S in different plant/soil systems. Has plant productivity, water movement and nitrogen leaching sub models

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Evaluated under many conditions (including forestry, grasslands and arable in the tropics)

Two of the most widely used SOM models

Good performance in comparison of 9 models (Powlson et al 1996, Smith et al 1997)

Used in regional applications

Model GIS linkage

Roth C

Century

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Rothamsted Carbon Model (Roth C)Rothamsted Carbon Model (Roth C)

Decay

Decay Decay

Decay

BIO

HUM

CO2BIO

HUM

CO2

Decay

Decay

Organic

Inputs

DPM

RPM

Inert Organic Matter

DPM = decomposable plant material

RPM = resistant plant material

BIO = microbial biomass

HUM = humus

Colman and Jenkinson (1996)

Page 23: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Century Ecosystem Model (Century)Century Ecosystem Model (Century)

Parton et al (1987)

Page 24: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Stage 1. Model EvaluationStage 1. Model Evaluation

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Page 25: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Stage 2. National DataStage 2. National Data

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Page 26: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Stage 3: Model/GIS couplingStage 3: Model/GIS coupling

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Graphical user interface

Program modules

IPCC

Page 27: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Stage 4: Current StocksStage 4: Current Stocks

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Current land use

Global level information +

Landscape level

Page 28: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Stage 5. Future StocksStage 5. Future Stocks

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

COMPARE

STAGE 4. ASSESS CURRENT SOC STOCKS

For the year 2000

ASSIST POLICY FORMULATIONASSIST POLICY FORMULATION

EXISTING TECHNIQUES

STAGE 1. MODEL EVALUATION

Identify long term experimental

data sets

SOIL C MODELS

STAGE 3. SOM MODEL/ GIS LINKAGE

GIS

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT DATA

Collate & format national scale datasets of soils climate and land use

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN SOC STOCKS

Quantify the impact of land use changes on c

sequestration in soil between 2000 - 2030

Page 29: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Regional carbon stocks: current and future

SOC stocks in the 0-20cm soil layer for the year 1990

SOC stocks (t C ha-1)

Page 30: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Regional carbon stocks: current and future

SOC stocks (t C ha-1)

SOC stocks in the 0-20cm soil layer for the year 2030

Page 31: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.
Page 32: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

The Final OutputThe Final Output

A transferable system for estimating SOC stocks and changes in a range of soils and climatic conditions (The GEFSOC Modeling System), designed to help in formulating national and sub-national land management and carbon sequestration policy by:

(i) Quantifying current soil organic carbon stocks at national and sub-national level and

(ii) Analyzing the impacts of land management options on carbon storage , GHG emissions and sequestration possibilities

Page 33: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

Website ReferenceWebsite Reference

The GEFSOC Modelling System can be downloaded free of charge via the project website

http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gefsoc-uk

And the UNEP website www.unep.org

And is accompanied by a use manual

Page 34: Sustainable Land Management through Soil Organic Carbon Management and Sequestration The GEFSOC Modelling System Mohamed Sessay Eleanor Milne.

THANK YOU

FOR

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