Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
-
Upload
worldwatch-institute -
Category
Environment
-
view
251 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Sustainable Energy Roadmaps
Alexander Ochs – Worldwatch Institute
December 4th 2012 – COP18 – Doha, Qatar
Ongoing projects • DR wind & solar roadmap (EEP, 2012 - finalized) • Greater Antilles (ICI, 2013) • Caribbean regional roadmap (CARICOM, 2013) • Central America (CDKN/EEP, Phase 1: 2013)
Future plans • Zero-carbon Islands • Pacific islands • Suriname • Africa: Burundi & Rwanda; Nigeria • India • China
Goal
• An energy system that is socially, economically and environmentally sustainable
Our role
• Provide the supporting research
• Help government define goals, design strategy
• Advise on implementation
Theory of change • Overall strategy and individual recommendations only
successful if they get buy-in from key drivers of change – Decision-makers in policy, business (entrepreneurs, project
developer) and finance (investors, banks, international funders)
– Media, NGOs and civil society as important communicators and pressure groups
• Necessitates a paradigm shift • Requires that we demonstrate that
– the outcome is in the clear interest of the people; allow for greater prosperity, security, integrity, happiness
– the pathway is technically, socially, economically, politically and financially feasible
Sustainable Energy
Roadmaps Policy
Recommendations
Vision & Long-Term Goals
Concrete Policy Mechanisms
Governance & Administrative Efficiency
Technical Assessment
Energy Efficiency Potential
Renewable Energy Potential
Grid Solutions
Finance & Policy
Assessment
Gap Analysis
International Support & Cooperation
Domestic Reform and Capacity Building
Socio-Economic Analysis
Levelized Cost of Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic Effects
Financial investment barriers and enablers
Barriers
Fin
an
ce B
arr
iers
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
Co
st
Bar
rier
s
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Po
licy Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy targets
Visio
n
Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.) C
on
crete Po
licies
Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes (planning, permitting)
Go
v. &
Ad
min
.
Socio-economic Assessments
Knowledge Barriers
Knowledge gap Worldwatch provides the information that important decision-makers at national, sub-national, and international levels often lack in terms of technical knowledge
Deficient dissemination of information Worldwatch disseminates gathered knowledge to stakeholders, enabling them more effectively and efficiently develop renewable energy projects
Capacity building Technical assessments can be used to more smartly develop the capacity needed to implement renewable energy projects
International knowledge sharing Results of technical assessments are available to a wide range of international stakeholders in the public and private sectors
Technical Assessments
Socio-economic Impacts of RE
Energy Priorities
Security
Economic Priorities
Industry development
Jobs
Social Development
Energy access
Health
Education
Redistribution/Equality
Environmental Integrity
Climate change
Natural resources
Barriers
Co
st B
arri
ers
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Po
litic
al
Political challenges
Pu
blic
A
ccep
tan
ce
Public opposition
Kn
ow
led
ge
Bar
rier
s Knowledge gap
Capacity development
REMOVE
Barriers
Systemic Vision Energy sector and industry vision
Policy and Regulatory Misplaced incentives, policy/regulatory uncertainty
Cost High LCOE, unaccounted costs, market and currency fluctuations
Finance Cost of capital, unavailability of financing, unmanageability for banks, upfront costs
Political Politicization of key issues, short-term priorities
Entrenched Interest Monopoly/vertical integration, anti-RE lobby
Infrastructure Unsuitability of infrastructure, high cost of development, intermittency/storage
Innovation Patent protection, lack of R&D
Public Acceptance NIMBY, cost of RE to consumers
Knowledge Knowledge gap, capacity building, deficient and uncoordinated dissemination of information
Trade Tariffs, trade disputes
Enablers
Long-term Vision
Policies (policy toolkit)
RE support policies
Climate Policies
Energy Market Regulation
Int’l. Cooperation
Effective Governance and Administration
Policy Analysis and Recommendations
Financial Analysis and Recommendations
Sustainable Energy
Roadmaps
Technical Assessment
Energy Efficiency Potential
Renewable Energy Potential
Grid Solutions
Grid Assessments: DR
• One of the highest rates of distribution losses in the world • Electricity instability costs the country $1 billion every year (3.4% GDP) • Population resorts to inefficient small-scale fossil fuel-based units
RE Maps
The Need for Integrated Planning
Seasonal Variation Daily (Diurnal) Variation
• Great similarities & divergences among countries
• All Caribbean countries can be powered 100% carbon-free
• Enormous wind, solar, biomass, hydro potentials
• Enormous potential for energy efficiency
• Need to build and/or renovate grid
Selected Highlights Technical Assessments
Sustainable Energy
Roadmaps
Socio-Economic Analysis
Levelized Cost of Energy +
Energy Scenarios
Macroeconomic Effects
The Need for LCOE+ Modeling societal costs and benefits
LCOE+ Jamaica • Energy pricing does not
reflect the true costs of different generation options
• LCOE+ modeling adds societal costs and benefits on top of generation costs to help governments make more informed choices in the energy sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
USc
/kW
h
Generation Pollution Climate Change
LCOE – No External Costs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam OilCombustion
Turbine
Oil CombinedCycle
DieselGenerator
Natural GasCombined
Cycle
PetcokeCogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
USc
/kW
h
Generation
LCOE+ with Low External Cost Assumptions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam OilCombustion
Turbine
Oil CombinedCycle
DieselGenerator
Natural GasCombined
Cycle
PetcokeCogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
USc
/kW
h
Generation Pollution Climate Change
LCOE Projection
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Oil Steam OilCombustion
Turbine
Oil CombinedCycle
DieselGenerator
Natural GasCombined
Cycle
PetcokeCogeneration
Wind Solar Hydro Bagasse
Usc
/kW
h
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Generation Scenarios based on Reference Case Demand Growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
GW
h
Petroleum NGPetcoke Renewables
Business As Usual 30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy 20% Renewable Energy
Cumulative Costs & Savings for Electricity Generation Scenarios: 2012-2030
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Total Investment Required toMeet Annual Demand
Total Cost of Electricity Generation Total Savings Over Business AsUsual
USD
(In
Mill
ion
s)
Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy
Job Creation Case Study: Direct Jobs in the Solar PV Value Chain
Processing of raw materials
Engineers
Technicians
Manufacture of cells and modules
Engineers
Technicians
Installation and plant construction
Project development analysis
Wholesalers
Solar PV system designers and installers
Construction workers
Meteorologists
Operation and maintenance
Technicians
Maintenance staff
Decommissioning
Construction workers
Materials recyclers
Jobs Creation Estimates per MW for Various Energy Sources over Lifetime of Facilities
Energy technology Construction, installation, and
manufacturing jobs
Operations & maintenance
and fuel processing jobs
Total jobs
Solar PV 0.29 – 1.48 0.12 – 1.00 0.41 – 2.48
Geothermal 0.10 – 0.44 1.67 – 1.79 1.77 – 2.23
Biomass 0.11 – 0.21 1.21 – 1.53 1.32 – 1.74
Solar Thermal 0.18 – 0.41 0.22 – 1.00 0.40 – 1.41
Small Hydro 0.14 1.14 1.28
Nuclear 0.38 0.70 1.08
Wind 0.10 – 0.44 0.14 – 0.40 0.24 – 0.84
Coal 0.21 0.59 0.80
Natural Gas 0.03 0.77 0.80
CO2e Emissions
0
1E+09
2E+09
3E+09
4E+09
5E+09
6E+09
7E+09
8E+09
9E+09
1E+10
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
kg
Business As Usual 20% Renewable Energy
30% Renewable Energy 50% Renewable Energy
• Islands pay astronomical price for fossil fuel dependency
• Petroleum high share of electricity produced (Jamaica 2009 : 96%)
• All imported (J: Oil import US$2.2 bn/2011, 14.9% of GDP; CARICOM: 23%)
• Sustainable energy solutions lead to major cost savings & social benefits
Selected Highlights Socio-economic Assessments
Sustainable Energy
Roadmaps
Finance & Policy Assessment
Gap Analysis
International Support & Cooperation
Domestic Reform and Capacity Building
Sustainable Energy Finance
• Gap analysis – Lack of finance
– Access to finance, cost of finance etc.
• International sources and cooperation – International climate funds; CDM
– Multi-lateral development banks
– Bilateral aid
• Domestic reform and capacity building – Business and banking sector
Financial Barriers and Enablers
Barriers
Fin
ance
Bar
rier
s
Cost of capital
Unavailability of public financing
Unavailability of private loans
Unmanageability of small projects for development banks and international funders
High upfront capital costs
Co
st B
arri
ers Higher Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Unaccounted external benefits and costs
Market and currency fluctuations
Po
licy Misplaced incentives
Policy and regulatory uncertainty and complication
Enablers
National renewable energy targets
Visio
n
Regulatory policies (Feed-in tariff, RPS, etc.)
Co
ncrete P
olicie
s
Fiscal incentives (tax incentives, subsidies, grants)
Public financing (public investment, loans, grants)
Energy market regulations
Trade agreements
Streamlining processes (planning, permitting)
Go
v. &
Ad
min
.
Sustainable Energy
Roadmaps Policy
Recommendations
Vision & Long-Term Goals
Concrete Policy Mechanisms
Governance & Administrative Efficiency
Policy Recommendation
• Vision & goals: ”Long, loud & legal”
• Concrete policy mechanisms – EE, RE, grid reliability
– Market mechanisms, regulatory policies, incentive systems, standards, education
• Administrative efficiency & governance – Institutional capacity & interplay; mainstreaming
– MRV; transparency; stakeholder participation
– Working bureaucracy
Administrative Procedure to Obtain a RE Concession in the Dominican Republic
Application for a provisional concession at
CNE
CNE publishes the concession
request in a national
newspaper
CNE publishes the granting of the provisional
concession
Application to Electricity
Supervision Board (SIE)
CNE includes the applicant in the Special
Regime Production
Facilities Register
Granting of provisional concession
Application for a permanent concession
Environmental Impact Study (SEMARENA)
Resource and production
analysis by a company
authorized by CNE
Grid study CDEEE
guarantee of PPA
Guarantee
CNE receives the reports of
the SIE and SEMARENA
Definitive concession
• Long-term vision often exists, can be more ambitious
• Policies & measures exist but often do not work to their full potential; additional policies needed
• Governance & administration need to be strengthened; capacity-building, mainstreaming, simplification
Selected Highlights Policy Assessments
Thank you!