Sustainable Energy Engineering — The Mix of Fossil Fuels ... · PDF fileSustainable...

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Sustainable Energy Engineering — The Mix of Fossil Fuels, Nuclear, Wind, Solar, and RenewablesThomas A. Blasingame, Ph.D., P.E. — [email protected]

Petroleum Engineering — Texas A&M U.

Sustainable Energy Engineering —The Mix of Fossil Fuels, Nuclear,

Wind, Solar, and Renewables

ACIPET (Colombian Association of Petroleum Engineers)and XIII Colombian Congress of Petroleum and Gas

02-04 December 2009 — Bogota, COLOMBIA

Tom BLASINGAMEDepartment of Petroleum Engineering

Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station, TX 77843-3116 (USA)

+1.979.845.2292 — [email protected]

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Purpose of this Presentation:The "reality" of sustainable energy is "fossil fuels" (oil, gas, coal) and this will remain so for at least the next 50-100 years. The world will continue to be powered by "stored sunshine" in the form of fossil fuels.As an industrial society we are accustomed to "dense" energy sources — oil, gas, coal, uranium. The in-dustrial, residential, and transport sectors all DEPEND on dense energy sources.As a society, we will have to adjust to "diffuse" energy sources — wind, solar, and biomass (some would argue that biomass forms a "dense" source, but my logic is that it is derived from diffuse (agricultural) sources).Technology breakthroughs will likely come from integration of energy management, distribution, and the ability to use "diffuse" sources on local and grid-scales.As orientation, hydrogen is not an energy source — but like electricity, is an energy carrier.

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Overview: (1/2)Topics/Issues:■Energy Supply and Consumption:—Supply is tight due to demand from emerging economies.—Oil, gas, and coal provide ≈ 90 percent of U.S. energy supply.

■ExxonMobil Says…:—Predictions from ExxonMobil (we should probably listen…).

■Peak Oil:—Don't worry, we know where the oil is (and how to get it).

■U.S. Energy Trends:—ACCESS to energy → wealth and prosperity.

■Nuclear Energy:—No new nuclear power plants in U.S. since late 1970's. —Nuclear energy ≈ 18 % of electricity in U.S. — France ≈ 80 %!

■Solar/Alternatives/Renewables:—Geothermal: Almost limitless geothermal potential (U.S.).—Solar: (Some) Very good solar resources (U.S.).—Wind: Wind is good (not great), but incentives (TX)!—Biomass: Competition with food?

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Energy Lecture: Overview (2/2)Topics/Issues:■Global Warming:—CO2 Effect on Climate Change.—Anthropogenic CO2 Issues (i.e., We caused climate change?).

■The Real Problems:—Water.—Energy.—Biocapacity.

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Energy Supplyand Consumption

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Energy: Total Energy Consumed Per Capita (2007)

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(1 metric ton ≈ 7.33 bbls)http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/science/energy_calculator.html

Message:Who are the "energy hogs?"

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Energy: Total Energy Consumed by Fuel (2007)

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Primarily the"developed world."

"developingworld."

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Energy: Total Energy Consumed by Region (2007)

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Message:North America and Western Europe are dependent on FOSSIL FUELS for 85-90 percent of their energy!

MostlyChina!

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Fossil Energy: Conventional Oil Reserves (2007)

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Message:Guess where all the (conventional)oil is… (Middle East)

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Fossil Energy: Conventional Oil Reserves by Region

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Message:The location of proved reserves will not change…

Note: Global OIL reserves are INCREASING with time.

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Heavy Oil(1-3 TB)

Who knows?

Tar Sands (1-2 TB)Oil Shale (1-2 TB)

ConventionalOil (0.25 TB)!

Fossil Energy: Country Size by Oil Reserves

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Fossil Energy: Natural Gas Reserves (2007)

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(1 cubic meter ≈ 35.315 cubic feet)

Message:Guess where all the (conven-tional) natural gas is… (Middle East and Russia)

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Fossil Energy: Natural Gas Reserves by Region (2007)

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(1 cubic meter ≈ 35.315 cubic feet)

Note: Global GAS reserves are INCREASING with time.

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Fossil Energy: US Natural Gas RESOURCES (2008/9)

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Fossil Energy: Coal Reserves (2007)

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[North America R/P = (250.5x109 tonnes)/(620x106 tonnes/year) ≈ 400 years!]

Message:Coal reserves are ENORMOUS, and the extraction/use tech-nologies are well established.

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"ExxonMobil Says…"(all data taken from public sources)

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ExxonMobil Says…: Economics and Energy

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onm

obil.

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pora

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ExxonMobil Says…: Energy Demand

http

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Message:Energy demand cannot increase unabated — market and/or political forces will regulate demand...

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ExxonMobil Says…: Energy Demand by Fuel

http

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ExxonMobil Says…: Biofuels

http

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ExxonMobil Says…: Oil Resource Base

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Message:There is PLENTY of oil — it is just difficult to extract, or in politically "challenged" locations, or both…

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"Peak Oil"

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Peak Oil: When Will It Get Here?Coming, we don't know when — and we can delay "peak oil" indefinitely (at least at present).Oil is critical to transportation, and there is no current suitable (or viable) substitute.■Not biofuels … (not viable without subsidies)■Not natural gas … (source/infrastructure issues)■Not hydrogen … (require multi-trillion $ infrastructure)

If we want future generations to enjoy the freedom of mobility, we must find a suitable substitute to oil. (hydrogen???)Alternative energy sources like nuclear, wind, and solar only apply to electricity, not to trans-portation (unless transportation infrastructure is electrified).

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"Kashagan"Discovery

in Kazakhstan(2000)

Agree that most "giant" fields have been discovered — but "so what?"We have AT LEAST 40 years reserves at current rates of consumption…

Not to mention "unconventional" oil and gas — hundreds of years supply!

Peak Oil: Giant Oil Discoveries Versus Time

"Jack" Discoveryin

DeepwaterGulf of Mexico

US (2006)

"Tupi" Discoveryin Deepwater

Brazil (late 2007)

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Peak Oil: US Oil Production Decline Scenario

US Oil Production Decline:Due to politics (mora-toria, environmental issues, etc.).Due to economics (cheaper to produce elsewhere).NOT due to technology!

The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the Oil Age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil...

—Sheikh Zaki Yamani,Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia (1962–86), June 2000

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Peak Oil: US Oil Production Comparison

Discussion: US Oil Production — ComparisonAn illustration that many processes are Gaussian (i.e., "peak")."Peaks" due to many factors — often "disruptive technologies."Dimensionless scales used to show similarities in data functions.

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U.S. Energy Issues

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Sour

ce: U

S D

OE-

EIA

(http

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.eia

.doe

.gov

)

U.S. Energy: Fraction of Source Consumption

Oil and Gas Consumption History●Note that gross energy consumption is ALWAYS on the rise.●Over the last 30 years — oil, gas, coal, nuclear increasing at ≈ same rate.●Note the GDP trend on the right-hand y-axis (logarithmic).

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Sour

ce: U

S D

OE-

EIA

(http

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ww

.eia

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.gov

)

Fractional Energy Consumption History●Note that the fractions of energy consumption are ≈ constant since 1980.●The fraction of nuclear energy has risen since 1970 (capacity utilization).

U.S. Energy: Fraction of Source Consumption

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Sour

ce: U

S D

OE-

EIA

(http

://w

ww

.eia

.doe

.gov

)

Marchetti-Nakicenovic Fractional Energy Consumption History●The MN fraction shows the natural "peak" of a particular source.●Oil + gas and coal have been extended beyond their "natural" lives.●Nuclear energy has not followed its natural path.

U.S. Energy: Marchetti-Nakicenovic Function

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Nuclear Energy

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Nuclear Energy: Map of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants

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Nuclear Energy: Potential for Low Cost GenerationNuclear energy could deliver low cost electricity for the U.S. (and the rest of the world).Renewable energy sources do not/cannotcompete with the cost of nuclear energy.

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Source: International Atomic Energy AgencyUpdated: 11/06

69.656.1

55.648.5

46.744.7

44.142.742.4

37.232.9

32.131.0

30.529.3

19.919.619.4

15.814.6

8.66.9

5.55.0

3.92.82.82.5

2.0

78.5FranceLithuania

Slovak RPBelgiumUkraineSweden

Korea Rep.BulgariaArmeniaSloveniaHungary

FinlandSwitzerland

GermanyCzech Rep.

JapanU.K.

SpainU.S.

RussiaCanada

RomaniaArgentina

SouthMexico

NetherlandIndia

PakistanBrazilChina

Nuclear Energy: Production by Country

France:No Oil …No Gas …No Coal …No Choice (→ nuclear energy).

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Alternatives/Renewables

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From: (2007.01.23)National Renewable Energy OpportunitiesDaniel Arvizu (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Alternatives/Renewables: Role of Renewable Energy

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From: (November 2006)The Energy Under Our Feet Geothermal Resource Estimates for the United StatesBruce D. Green and R. Gerald Nix, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Alternatives/Renewables: U.S. Energy Resources

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From: (2005.05.12)Renewable Energy: Strengthening Our Nation’s EconomyDaniel Arvizu (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Alternatives/Renewables: Energy Resources Costs

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Alternatives/Renewables: US Wind Resource

From:http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-06m.htmlhttp://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-16m.html

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From:http://mapserve2.nrel.gov/website/L48NEWPVWATTS/viewer.htm

Units:kWhrs/m2/day

Alternatives/Renewables: US Solar Resource

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Alternatives/Renewables: Solar Cell Evolution

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Alternatives/Renewables: US Geothermal Resource

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Renewable Energy: Hydrogen Economy

Discussion: Hydrogen Economy●Perfect system (no emissions — other than water).●Cost to convert U.S. to hydrogen for transportation — USD 25-50 trillion.●But where will we get the hydrogen???

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Renewable Energy: Reality Checks…●We cannot "store" electricity — except on a

small scale (batteries). Electricity is an energy CARRIER, not an energy SOURCE — we must convert the electricity to another energy form (e.g., kinetic energy (spinning wheel), potential energy (pumped water storage), or something completely different — e.g., hydrogen).

●Geothermal energy is difficult to "cultivate," re-quires very special conditions for ECONOMIC success.

●Solar and wind energy will evolve — there is no doubt. Main issue → these are "dilute" sources.

●Fossil energy is "stored sunshine" and has had the benefit of millions of years to accumulate.

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Global Warming(yes, no, maybe …)

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Q: Is global warming real?A: Possible scenarios:●Yes! (… and it was the oil companies)●No! (the tooth fairy told me so)●Maybe … (but I didn't do it)●So what? (it won't really matter for 100 years)

Global Warming:

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Petroleum Engineering — Texas A&M U.47

Global Warming: (Con) CO2 Effects/Climate ChangePetition Project:●Temperature cycles are a func-

tion of solar activity, not the combustion of fossil fuels (i.e., increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere).

●Other studies that argue that recent temperature cycles are the result of cloud activity, cosmic rays, etc.

For a recent comprehensive work on induced climate change, see: Climate Change and Water (2007) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WMO, UNEP) [ISBN: 978-92-9169-123-4] (http://www.ipcc.ch/).

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Global Warming: (Pro) Anthropogenic CO2 Issues

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Q: What can I do to solve global warming?A: Possible actions:●Blame others… (… after all, this is America)●Reduce my "carbon footprint" (i.e., live in a cave)●Increase my "carbon footprint" (accelerate our demise)●Nothing… (if I ignore it, it will go away)

Global Warming: Solutions

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The Real Problems(Energy, Water, Biocapacity)

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Sustainable Development: Mission Statement"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

— Brundtland Report(http://www.un.org/documents/ga/res/42/ares42-187.htm)

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05

101520253035404550

Oil

Coal GasFiss

ionBiom

assHyd

roelec

tric

Solar, w

ind, g

eothe

rmal

0.5%

Source: Internatinal Energy Agency

2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Oil

Coal

GasFusi

on / F

ission

Biomass

Hydroe

lectric

Solar, w

ind, g

eothe

rmal

20502003:14 Terawatts210 M BOE/day

2050:30 - 60 Terawatts450 - 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity20st Century = OIL21st Century = ???

Source: Prof. Richard E. Smalley, Nobel Laureate

Global Energy Challenge: 2003 Versus 2050Pe

rcen

t

Perc

ent

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The Real Issues: Developing Nations (2007)●6.7 billion people currently living on earth.●1.1 billion people lack access to clean water.●2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation.●2.2 billion people have no electricity.

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One Last Thing…

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Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.

—Thomas A. EdisonAmerican Inventor (1847-1931)

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Sustainable Energy Engineering —The Mix of Fossil Fuels, Nuclear,

Wind, Solar, and RenewablesEnd of Presentation






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