Sustainable, CO2-neutral

Source of Energy

http://www.energycommission.org/

In the last 100 years, the Earth warmed up by ~1° C

100 years is nothing by geological time scales!

Temperature over the last 420,000 yearsSource: Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Shouldn’t we be worried about a new ice age?

Forget about Global warming!

Previous ice ages are

thought to be caused by

changes in the orbit and

inclination of the Earth.

…but there is something new happening!

“Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”

We continue to refine the predictions of Global Warming …

The great American philosopher of the 20th century

Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)

Climate change due to natural causes

and human generated

greenhouse gases

Can we predict the past?

CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea LevelContinue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced

100 years

1,000 years

Sea-level rise due to ice melting: several millennia

Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia

Temperature stabilization:a few centuries

CO2 stabilization:100 to 300 years

CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions peak0 to 100 years

Today

The possibility / likelihood of global warming

is disturbing …

… but there may be a bigger problem!

Chu

Consumption of Energy Increased by 85% Between 1970 and 1999

20202015201020051999199519901985198019751970

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Quadrillion Btu

History Projections

By 2020, Consumption will Triple

Chu

World Energy Consumption by Region: 1970-2020

Chu

Global Energy Consumption, 1998

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

4.52

2.72.96

0.286

1.21

0.2860.828

0

1

2

3

4

5

TW

Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas HydroRenewable

How long will our fossil fuels last?

Courtesy Nate Lewis

M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970.

Chu

Production in the Lower 48 StatesPeak discovery: 1930Peak production: 1972

Dis

cov

eri

es

, Gb

/a

Pro

du

cti

on

, G

b/a

World production of oil and gas is predicted to peak within 10 - 40 years

2010

Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time

(a factor of ~2) but the fundamental problem remains

(in the U.S. in 2002)

1-4 ¢

2.3-5.0 ¢ 6-8 ¢

5-7 ¢

Today: Production Cost of Electricity

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

Cost6-7 ¢

25-50 ¢

Cos

t , ¢

/kW

-hr

Courtesy Nate Lewis

Energy Costs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

$/GJ

Coal Oil Biomass ElectB

razi

l Eur

ope

$0.05/kW-hr

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea

Courtesy Nate Lewis

Potential Sources of Energy when Fossil Fuels Run Out

Nuclear Fission

Magnetic Plasma Confinement,Inertial Fusion

Waste &Nuclear Proliferation

Nuclear Fusion

10 TW = 10,000 new 1 GW reactors: i.e., a new

reactor every other day for the next 50 years

Solar Energy

We do not know how to store electrical energy on a massive scale

Wind Power Generation

Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO2, water and nutrients

into chemical energy

Photosynthesis Photovoltaic andelectricity to

chemical

H O

O H

2

22

sc M

e

sc

e

M

CO

Sugar

H O

O

2

2

2

Solar to Chemical Energy

Semiconductor/liquid junctions

Energy gained in corn ethanol production

Total CO2 emissions

From Summary of Renewable Fuel Options (NCEP)

“Unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol has

potential to achieve near-zero net carbon

emissions.

Cultivation of cellulosic feedstocks requires

very low energy inputs and, if sustainably

managed, the carbon released during fuel

combustion is reabsorbed by the growth of

new feedstocks.”

~ 450 M acres of land under cultivation in the US

• Land with Crop Production Potential, 1990: 2.45x1013 m2

• Cultivated Land, 1990: 0.897 x1013 m2

• Additional Land needed to support 9 billion people:

0.416x1013 m2

• Remaining land available for biomass energy: 1.28x1013 m2

Courtesy Nate Lewis

Biomass resources estimate

Photosynthesis:the creation of chemical energy from CO2,

sunlight, water and nutrients

Engineering microbes to produce drugs

• Malaria is caused by a single-cell protozoan–Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito

–Destroys red blood cells

• 1.5-2.7 million people die of malaria every year–90% of the victims are children

–40% of the world’s population is at risk

Artemisinin-based drugs

• The current cost for an artemisinin-based drug is approximately $2.25. –Artemisinin generally adds $1.00-1.50 to the

cost for drugs–Most developing countries spend less than

$4/person/year on health care

• As many as 10-12 treatments are needed for each person annually

• World Health Organization estimates that 700 tons will be needed annually

Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

Identify the biosynthesis pathways in

A. annua

Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce

methane from sunlight, CO2,

water and sustainable sources of nutrients?

Hybrid Devices

Integration of many disciplines will be needed

New ideas

Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy

ComputingSciences

MaterialsScience

Physics,Chemistry

LifeSciences

Nanoscience

A solution may lie at the interface of biology and

the physical sciences at the nano-scale

A diversified portfolio of investments is needed

National Concerns

Sustainable, CO2 neutral energy

which is intimately tied to energy security

1) National security

3) The environment

2) Economic prosperity

Science

•The pursuit of technological goals has led to some of the most innovative science.

Technology

•Science done with new technology has the best chance of discovery.

Lawrence Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley

Who will keep the lights on after we run out of fossil fuel?