Sustainable Agriculture to Implement the Paris Climate ...1 15. February 2017 Sustainable...
Transcript of Sustainable Agriculture to Implement the Paris Climate ...1 15. February 2017 Sustainable...
1 15.February2017
Sustainable Agriculture to Implement the Paris Climate Agreement
Gernot Klepper Kiel Ins:tute for the World Economy ISCC e.V.
7th ISCC Sustainability Conference Implementa:on of the Paris COP 21 Agreement Decarboniza:on and Sustainability 15. February 2017 Brussels
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The Paris Climate Agreement has the objec:ve to keep the increase in global average temperature within this century to well below 2°C. This relates closely to the RCP2.6 pathway that the IPCC has analyzed.
Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report
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Global Agriculture and Forestry currently contribute 24% to global greenhouse gas emissions
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Scenario analyses of the IPCC for the 2° goal reveal that biomass plays a crucial role in reducing GHG emissions: In transport, in electricity produc:on, and in „AFOLU“
Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report
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Carbon Capture and Sequestra:on (CCS) for fossil fuels, but also for bioenergy is a major must!
Source: IPCC (2015) 5. Assessment Report
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Current bioenergy use is in the order of 50 EJ/y, agriculture overall produces roughly 350 EJ/y. There is a large varia:on of
bioenergy poten:als in the literature. This depends on a
large number of uncertain
influencing factors:
• Food demand
• Nutri:onal lifestyles • Ecologic trade-offs
• Water availability
• Climate change
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Current integrated assessment models require up to 200 EJ/y of bioenergy by the end of the century in order to meet the 2°C target.
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2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
AIM/CGE
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MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
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Investment in the energy sectors is s:ll strongly biased towards fossil energy sources. Renewable energy receives only about 10 percent of investment.
Current average annual energy investments (2000-2013) in bn US$(2012)
Source: IEA (2014) World Energy Investment Outlook
Oil, 427
Gas, 252
Coal, 61
Fossil Power, 106
Renewable Power; 161
T&D, 212
Biofuels , 10 Industry, 21
Transport, 115
Buildings, 77
Efficiency
T&D: Transporta:on and Distribu:on / Renewable Power includes Nuclear
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Climate mi:ga:on through bioenergy and climte-freidly agriculture is only a part of sustainable agriculture. The UN SDGs men:on many more roles for agriculture: Social (zero hunger, affordable energy) and economic (no poverty)