Sustainability Freshman Inquiry

Jan. 27, 2010

Jeff Fletcher

Logistics• Service experiences

– Recyclemania and/or Garden Preparation• Possible EC assignment

– Food Inc. Sunday 1/31 8pm Ondine Lobby• Due Now:

– HW 2 (Bad Apples)• Due Next Monday:

– Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward and chronology (p. 150-203)

– Meet in group for discussion, write one paragraph• Mentor Session Today

– Stabilization Wedges

Catastrophe: Group Follow-up

• Thermohaline Circulation (N. Atlantic) (worldwide) – 8,200 years ago thermohaline disruption?

• Comma Butterfly of England• Golden Toad (Monteverde Cloud Forest)• Wyeomyia smithii Mosquito

– Video (http://www.uoregon.edu/~mosquito/media/boston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov)

– Polar Bears vs. Mosquitoes—who is doing better and why?

– Phenotypic Plasticity vs. Natural Selection

Chapter 5

• Collapse of societies based on drought– Effect of global warming on US drought conditions– Survive 3 to 5 days without water depending on temperature– Survive weeks without food Climate models

• P. 102 models – climate cells other visuals– NetLogo modeling program

• Heat Forcing– 2.5 w/m2 (6 Christmas lights per square meter p. 107)– Delay in system (pros and cons)

• “Adaption to change” p. 111• Water vapor feedback

Chapter 6

• Amphibious homes (http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/08/29/amphibian-houses-rising-water/)

• Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI)– 400ppm, 450pm, 500ppm?– CO2 levels near peak for last 3.5 billion years– Temp near peak in last 420 K years

Time Machines?

• In groups of 3-4

• Identify different methods presented in the text so far for estimating past conditions

• What systems states in the past have been analyzed?

• What methods have been used?

Catastrophe: Time Machines• How do we know about ancient atmosphere, temperatures, weather,

fauna?• Greenland Ice Cores (also Antarctic Ice Cores)

– Atmosphere: trapped air bubbles– Temperature: isotopic composition of the ice (isotopes of hydrogen and

oxygen different ratios depending on temperature)• Lakebed sediment pollen samples

– What kind of plants were growing at a particular location in the past• Microscopic skeletons in rocks, ocean sediments, e.g. Foraminifera

(“forams”)– Ratio of species indicator of temperature

• Ocean and lakebed sediments for wind blown substances (e.g. dolomite)

• Others?

Introduction to Kolbert, Ch. 7

• Key Concepts:– Why C02 is a greenhouse gas and why we should care.

• The Planet Venus• Carbon Cycle

– Business as Usual (BAU). Pictures from:• Gore• Socolow

– Stabilization Wedges:• Explain the graph• Note the definition of a wedge

– How to make a Wedge: Policy + Economics + Technology (sometimes called Social Engineering).

Venus was Once a Twin of Earth

“Venus Ruined by Greenhouse Gases” http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/28/1196036983400.html

Atmosphere of super-dense C02

Average Surface Temp•457 deg C•876 deg F

Earth’s Carbon Cycle

Natural & Human Sources

NaturalSequestration•Soil•Forests•Ocean

http://stage.takepart.com/social_network/action/thevisitor/Docs/AIT_Full.pdf

Where is the Carbon Coming From?

• Generating Electricity

• Transportation

• Deforestation

• Growing Food

• Manufacturing

Americans Generate 12,000 Pounds of CO2 Each Year

• That’s 6 tons each…

• That’s 2 Gigatons (billion tons) per year for the USA…

• That’s 2 wedges each year (see below)…

“In the USA, most of us begin generating CO2 as soon as we get out of bed.”

Business As Usual (BAU) on Earth

Stabilization of CO2 Emissions

Stabilization Wedges

15 Stabilization Wedges

See printed descriptions of these for Group Exercise, also available athttp://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf pages 4 - 8

Socolow says… “Pick any 7 of these”

The Bad News

Implementing wedges will only reduce our C02

EMISSIONS by 2055; it does not reduce the total CO2 in the atmosphere. TOTAL C02 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR THE NEAR FUTURE NO MATTER WHAT WE DO NOW.

Under the current conditions…“There is for the most part no direct cost to emitting

CO2…none of Socolow’s wedges are apt to be implemented.”