Sustainable energy for Vietnam

IS NUCLEAR POWER A VIABLE OPTION?

Hieu Nguyen

1/9/2014

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Contents

INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................2

Background and context of energy sector in Vietnam.........................................................................3

Aims, Objectives and Limitations.......................................................................................................5

Contents overview...............................................................................................................................6

LITERATURE REVIEW........................................................................................................................7

Introduction..........................................................................................................................................7

Historical evolution of sustainable development concept...................................................................7

Environmental sustainability of nuclear power.................................................................................11

Nuclear power as a role in sustainable development.........................................................................11

Future prospect of nuclear power......................................................................................................11

Is nuclear a truly sustainable energy source......................................................................................11

Requirements for sustainable nuclear power.....................................................................................11

Drivers and barriers for nuclear in Vietnam......................................................................................11

NUCLEAR POWER DETAILS............................................................................................................13

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS OF VIETNAMESE NUCLEAR PROJECT...................................15

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS FROM SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE.......16

DISCUSSION........................................................................................................................................17

CONCLUSION......................................................................................................................................18

BIBLIOGRAPHY..................................................................................................................................19

APPENDICES.......................................................................................................................................22

INTRODUCTION

Energy is a pre-requisite factor for development. There are imperatives to alleviate poverty

and starvation, and industrialization needs in developing countries. Standard living standard must be

raised considerably for an ever-growing population. The implication of these obvious assertions on

global energy usage is enormous. However, at the dawn of the 21st century, humankind is facing a

predicament that might impede its progress to betterment.

In his book “Out of gas” (2004), Caltech physicist David Goodstein described an potential

crisis for human race, namely The End of the Age of Oil, whereby he predicted that by 2015, the

amount of oil that can be cheaply extracted will fail to meet the increasing demand of the world,

which seems to be a consensus reached by notable researchers and analysts worldwide (Greene et al,

2007; Bentley, 2002; Murray and King, 2012; Sorrell et al, 2012; Snowden et al 2010; Hughes and

Rudolph, 2011). While conventional oil (crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquid oil) still

currently accounts for over 97% of the global oil production (Sorrell, et al., 2012), it is acknowledged

by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2010) that the peak point of oil production has come to

pass. Except for Middle-East countries, most of the conventional fossil minerals in many developed

and developing nations are depleting at a staggering rate to sustain the increasing demands for

economic growth. Despite technological advancement in exploiting unconventional oil sources like

shale oil or sand oil as well as renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, they will not

be able to “fill in the gap” in the timescale required (Aleklett, et al., 2010).

Furthermore, both the natural world and humanity are facing a profound threat of global

warming due to heavy industrialized activities. There is an apparent link between the energy

consumption and its effect on the temperature rise of the Earth. For example, coal, one the primary

source of energy due to its abundance and low cost, accounted for nearly 50% of the world’s

electricity, is also the most polluting source. A typical coal plant produces 3.5 million tons of carbon

dioxide (CO2) annually (UCSUSA, 2012). Burning coal, along other fossil fuels, is also responsible

for the emission of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter (PM), and the

cause of smog, acid rain and severe air pollution. Numerous nations are experiencing detrimental

damages to the environment in exchange for a fast economic growth. It is concluded from several

studies that the United States and other industrialized nations must cut down their carbon emission by

80 percent by mid-century to avoid stark climate change (Gronlund, et al., 2007). In a foreseeable

future, the world will have to operate within a carbon-constraint, rising prices of fossil fuel

environment, and all the while, must try to reduce toxic emission into the atmosphere; which

stimulates a search for a more efficient, and sustainable power production alternative.

Background and context of energy sector in Vietnam

Ever since the economic reform in 1986, Vietnam has seen a noticeable socio-economic

progress. The transition began by switching from a centrally-planned to market-orientated economy,

followed by the devaluation of the Vietnamese currency (VND) and the decontrol of most prices. In

1994, when the embargo of the US was lifted, Vietnam has successfully obtained membership of

ASEAN, APEC and WTO in the years 1995, 1998 and 2007, respectively (Do & Sharma, 2011). As a

result, Vietnam has become a promising destination for foreign investors, attracting a large inflow of

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), thanks to a young population, political stability, low labour costs

and loose operational standards. According to the World Energy Outlook report by IEA in 2008, in

the past fifteen years, Vietnam has achieved an annual growth rate higher than any other countries in

the ASEAN. In this growing economy, energy accounts for approximately one fourth of the country’s

foreign incomes (General Statistic Office of Vietnam, 2008). This role is likely to become even more

important in achieving the GDP target of 7% in 2015, set by the Vietnamese Prime Minister in 2011

(PMVN, 2011).

The power sector in Vietnam is governed by The Electricity of Vietnam (EVN), a wholly

state-owned company. At the moment, Vietnam’s energy supply is dominated by oil and coal,

representing 39.7 and 33.9 percent respectively (Bao, 2013), followed by natural gas (19.5 percent)

and hydro (5.8 percent). Coal is mainly used for industry sector, while gas is utilized for electricity

generation. As of 2013, the total electricity production in Vietnam is about 117 GWh (Mecometer,

2013), from which thermal source (oil, coal, natural gas) accounts for 70.1 percent, and the rest is

from hydropower (Bao, 2013). Although the country is endowed with a substantial indigenous

resources for power generation, including 3390 million tons of proven recoverable reserved coal, 600

million cubic meters of reserved crude oil, 700 million cubic meters of reserved natural gas (Bao,

2013; EIA, 2013) and 2360 rivers of more than 10 kilo meters long with theoretical capacity of 300

billion kWh per annum (Hoach, n.d.), it is projected that the demand will soon surpass the demand.

Despite being a net exporter of crude oil, Vietnam has become a net importer of petroleum product

since 2004 (EIA, 2013). Driven by escalated heavy industrial load, increased access to electricity and

population growth, Vietnam would become a net energy importer as soon as 2015 to sustain the socio-

economic development (Do & Sharma, 2011). This situation will place the nation into a position of

extreme vulnerability to oil price volatility, which will potentially undergo a significant price rise in

the near future (Trung & Vinh, 2011).

Hydropower is also a popular method to generate energy in Vietnam, especially in the

Northern region. Taking advantage of the CDM scheme, there are … hydropower station in Vietnam,

which accounted for … of the total electricity in the whole country. However, this form of energy is

unreliable due to its dependency on weather…. Furthermore, in a recent research, it is found that,

contrary to popular belief, hydropower does contribute to global warming

Thus, it is essential for a transformation in the way energy is produced and consumed. The

urgency of the situation required careful examination of both existing and potential options, and

nuclear power is considered as a promising solution for both of the aforementioned issues. Nuclear

power is not a new method to produce electricity per se, in face, the Vietnam’s government has been

researching into the potential of nuclear power as early as mid-1990s. However, its progress through

the course of history has been jeopardized by incidents that endanger human’s safety and security, for

instance Three Mile Island and Chernobyl incidents, and also by the fear that it will be utilized for the

wrong purposes. Nevertheless, nuclear power possesses key advantages over fossil-derived power

which possibly proves to be the key for the world’s survival. Nuclear power is more energy intensive

and reliable that any of the existing renewable power sources at the moment, and can rival that of coal

power. In addition, it is environmentally friendly in a way that it does not produce CO2 during

operation, and emissions in nuclear fuel cycle and plant construction are modest. On the downside,

analysts are wary that nuclear power might go down the same route and face the same crisis as fossil

fuel. The question of waste fuel disposal and safety measures are also left unanswered. Most of all,

public perception is negative towards nuclear power and this could be the most difficult barrier for

nuclear power to cross.

Aims, Objectives and Limitations

This thesis attempts to analyse the sustainability and viability of implementing nuclear power

into Vietnam’s energy market. As a soaring economy in the South-East region of Asia, the

Vietnamese government is trying to free itself from political constraints due to energy importation and

is turning to nuclear power to provide energy security and support its economic growth. Many

neighbouring countries are expecting to follow this example. Two nuclear plants are already

commissioned to be built in Vietnam in the next 10 years in partnership with Japan and Russia. The

introduction of said plants will definitely have significant impacts on the environmental, social and

economic aspects in the surrounding area. By providing information about the technology that will be

employed, the political background and supporting policies, as well as a preliminary environmental

assessment and comparisons with other alternative energy generation, this work is hoped to be of

benefits to those who are interested in, want to invest in, or do sustainability analysis on nuclear plant

in Vietnam or other countries.

The limitations of this work come from the reliability and accuracy of data from numerous

sources. The difficulty in getting the most updated information is also one of the main drawbacks.

Since the construction of the nuclear plant is still in progress, and there are worries of nuclear

proliferation and security, most of the reports and papers regarding this matter are kept classified by

the government. Hence, this work only hopes to provide general overview and analysis of the

problem, and acts as a building brick for future attempts.

Contents overview

The thesis will be divided into six distinguish chapters. The first chapter is this introduction,

which sets the context and provides background information and justification for carrying out the

work. The second chapter will be a literature review, which will assess the sustainability of nuclear

power as well as providing the framework and experiences from other countries will be presented.

The third chapter deals with the technology of nuclear power generation, followed by a preliminary

environmental impact assessment of nuclear plant in Vietnam in the fourth chapter. The fifth chapter

gives comprehensive comparisons of nuclear power with other method of energy generation in

Vietnam, and the final chapter will a discussion to answer the topic question, and offer

recommendations for further improvement.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Introduction

Ever since the Industrial Revolution in 1760, anthropogenic impacts on the environment have

increased steeply. These environmental stresses such as acid rains, water and air pollution, ozone

depletion, climate change, deforestation and biodiversity losses have taken a turn from bad to worse in

a surprisingly short period of time. The causes of these impacts are numerous; however, the root lies

in the production and uses of energy by human, both directly and indirectly. For example, burning

fossil fuels for electricity and transportation, agricultural activities or political conflicts between

countries for scarce resources. All activities contribute to the degradation of world we are living in.

Recognizing this, the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, 2002,

placed energy at the centre in the context of sustainable development. The challenges of the energy

sector in achieving sustainable development involved both spatial and temporal dimensions, including

uneven distribution of resources, impacts of Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and waste across

generations. As such, it is impossible to discuss future energy options without paying attention to

sustainability. It is the intention of this literature review to explore if nuclear energy is truly a

sustainable energy source. Furthermore, it is also deemed appropriate to review the literature on the

underlying concept of sustainable development.

Historical evolution of sustainable development concept

Sustainable development started to materialize from post-war environmental movements

which recognized the negative impacts on environments and communities from the unchecked

economic development. Sustainable development is a concept which attempts to bridge the gap

between the finite carrying capacity of Earth with political, economic, social and environmental

challenges faced by humanity. Its most well-known definition comes from the so-called Brundtland’s

report in 1987:

“...to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.” (Report of World Commission on Environmental and

Development: Our Common Future, 1987).

The WCED report was a result of global partnership, which marked a major political turning

point for the sustainable development. However, contrary to popular belief, it was neither the first to

introduce the concept nor the end of the development process. As with any conceptual development,

there were significant conceptual precursors that led to Brundtland’s definition, which in turn was

followed by other conceptualization efforts.

The idea of sustainable development originated from a terminology in the profession of

forestry, “sustained yield”, which made its first appearance in print as early as 1713 in the book

“Sylvicultura oeconomica”, written by Hanns Carl von Carlowitz (Grober, 2007). Considered a

doctrine by foresters, “sustained yield” is a stewardship concept which seeks to maintain productivity

in perpetuity. A classic definition of the concept came from American forestry expert William A.

Deurr (1968):

“To fulfil our obligations to our descendants and to stabilize our communities, each

generation should sustain its resources at a high level and hand them along undiminished. The

sustained yield of timber is an aspect of man’s most fundamental need: to sustain life itself.” (Smith

and Hopkinson, 2012, page 69).

This definition by Deurr was not too far off from Brundtland’s report’s definition.

More than two centuries later, sustainable development started to gain attention and

popularity from notable reports and books such as Brown (1981), Clark and Munn (1986),

IUCN/UNEP/WWF/FAO/UNESCO (1980) and Brundtland’s report (1987), which addressed and

investigated the concerns about the severe degradation of the environment due to industrialization and

economic development. These can be seen as a logical extension of arguments from environmental

literature from late 1940s until early 1980s. Key works that highlight this trend of thinking are

Fairfield Osborn’s Our plundered planet (1948), Rachel Carson’s Silent spring (1962), Garret

Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons (1968), Paul Ehrlich’s The population bomb (1968), and the Club

of Rome’s Limit to Growth report (1972).

The year 1972 saw several milestones in the evolution of sustainable development. In March

1972, the Club of Rome’s report, Limit to Growth was published, which introduced the term

“sustainable” into political language for the first time (Grober, 2007). The report, compiled by a group

of eminent scientists, emphasized the output state of equilibrium:

“We are searching for a model output that represents a world system that is: 1.

sustainable without sudden and uncontrolled collapse; and 2. capable of satisfying the basic

material requirements of all of its people.” (Limits to growth, Club of Rome, 1972)

Another major step forward for sustainable development is the UN Conference on Human

Environment, which was held in Stockholm, also in 1972. Even though the concept was not

established explicitly, the conference was adamant about the importance of environmental

management and assessment and called for the need to consider environmental and developmental

issues concurrently (Mebratu, 1998).

In 1976, in an address in London, the then Executive Director of the United Nations

Environment Programme (UNEP), Mostafa Tolba, commented that the past development patterns had

been unsustainable and argued for a new kind of development, which integrated environmental

management principles to meet basic human needs while staying within the environmental potentials

and constraints (Tolba, 1976). Tolba’s arguments have characterized a more social-oriented views in

literature, which looked beyond short-term environmental consequences and concentrated on

institutional changes required for society to survive indefinitely without surpassing the ecological

limits (Robinson, 2004).

However, in 1987, the work of the WCED, or Brundtland’s report, led to a slightly different

direction, which emphasized more on socio-political and distributional issues and less on drastic

behaviours and priorities changes (Robinson, 2004). In the definition mentioned above, the

Brundtland’s report contained two key entwined concepts: first was the concept of “needs”, especially

the “needs” of the world’s poor, where utmost priorities should be given. The report argued that the

issues of environmental sustainability and human development and poverty must be resolved

simultaneously if true sustainable development was to be achieved. Second was the idea of limitations

in the existing state of technology and social organization on the ability of the environment to meet

present and future needs. In addition, the Brundtland’s report also embraced the element of time, a

synthesizing factor in sustainability, which it picked up from the earlier World Conservation Strategy

by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in 1980 (Mebratu, 1998).

Despite the continual reference to sustainable development, the report by the WCED never

clearly stated any operational principles or by which way such concept can be achieved. Furthermore,

the WCED’s definition was vague and can be open to interpretation, which was advantageous at first

to gain wide acceptance around the global, but has gradually become a breeding ground for

disagreement (Daly, 1996). Nevertheless, WCED’s report has successfully popularised the term

“sustainable development” and turned it into “the” paradigm of development, embraced by nearly all

governments, organizations and Development Banks. It has fuelled innumerable efforts globally to

properly define the concept and produce operational principles so that development process can be

inherently sustainable. Steadily, the question was no longer “Can economic development and

environmental protection concurrently exist?” but “How can sustainable development be achieved?”

A brief analysis of sustainable development concept and practice

Post-1987, sustainable development has become popular and pervasive. It has constantly

made appearances as theme for intellectual conferences, slogans for environmental activists, and

watchwords for international aid agencies. So far, however, literatures surrounding the concept has

lacked consistencies and little consensus exists regarding its definition and operationalization

(references). As put by Tolba (1984):

“(Sustainable development) has become an article of faith, a shibboleth; often used, but little

explained” (Tolba, 1984)

Generally literature on sustainable development is divided into ranges of specialized

categories such as feminism, environmental politics, environmental economics and global economy

perspective (Beresford & Tran, 2004). For a more completed review, Mebratu (1998) provided a

useful categorization of definitions on sustainable development, which was divided into three

categories: 1) the institutional version, 2) the ideological version and 3) the academic version.

While pointed out that several advantages of the concept stemmed from its general vagueness,

such as preventing exclusion and compromises of people with different viewpoints, Lele (1991)

argued that a firm theoretical and analytical frameworks as well as conceptual clarity are required in

order to assess the effectiveness of strategic implementation and encourage a fruitful debate for the

conceptual development.

As a matter of fact, debate about translating the concept of sustainable development into

quantifiable goals and objectives often plummeted into definitional and interpretational conflicts.

According to Mebratu (1998), different expressions of the concept tend to reflect the political and

philosophical position of those who is proposing rather than an objective scientific definition. This

statement was agreed by Soderbaum (2000), who argued that the ongoing discussions about

sustainable development is very much an ideological, interest-based debate, whereby the disputes

does not necessarily rest on the contents but also on different interests and needs represented by

different industrial sectors. As a result, there are as many as about 400 definitions of sustainable

development in literature (Jacobs, 1995, as cited in Ciegis, et al, 2009), geared towards separate

sectors, such as environmental, economics or civilization, or emphasized on managerial, technical or

political aspects of decision-makings (Ciegis, et al., 2009). Furthermore, Robinson (2004) expressed

his concerns about how the lack of definite interpretation of the concept might be exploited for

political purposes.

In addition, it is not just the way the concept is interpreted is confusing; the very idea of

sustainable development is doubtful and contestable. On the one hand, works of international aid

agencies such as WCED have been advocating for the necessity of massive economic growth to

finance the means to address environmental problems. In the WCED’s report, Mrs. Brundtland has

emphasized that the world’s economy must grow 5-10-fold in order to eradicate poverty and

sanitation issues in less privileged countries, since only when human’s basic needs are satisfied that

they stop relying on destroying the environment for short-term survival. This implies the inextricable

links of economic, environment and society. On the other hand, because of this notion, many have

branded the concept as an oxymoron and self-contradictory (Meppem & Gill, 1998). Researchers such

as Cocks (1994) and Flannery (2002) pointed out the human population has already exceeded the

carrying capacity of the Earth, while Gibson (1991) criticised that the concept fosters delusions and

diverts attention away from the actual problems.

Ultimately, it must be realized that sustainable development is a very complex and dynamic

process, which required a series of decisions to be made across generations, at different regions

around the globe, within different levels of authorities, cultural values, changing interests and socio-

economic goals which are rarely shared by all members. All three dimensions of sustainable

development must be considered concurrently, with an emphasis placed on social issues, since

poverty is both the cause and effect of environmental degradation. Since economic progression path

will most likely continue to be pursued to resolve developmental issues in less-developed countries,

policy reforms that stress on alternative uses of natural resources through managerial procedures and

technologies will be needed, though the effectiveness of those on reducing environmental degradation

still remains to be seen. Hence, many policy-makers, academics and practitioners have accepted the

concept for its morality and practical intentions and are prepared to work within its framework as

guiding principles; rather than seeking a rigor definition to be imposed upon (Scottish Executive

Social Research, 2006).

In Brundtland’s report, aside from the brief fundamental objective, the commission was much

more elaborated about its operational objectives of sustainable development. The nine critical

objectives are:

1) Revive growth

2) Changing the quality of growth

3) Meeting essential needs for jobs, food, energy, water and sanitation

4) Ensuring a sustainable level of population

5) Conserving and enhancing the resource base

6) Reorienting technology and managing risks

7) Merging environment and economics to decision-making

8) Reorienting international economic relations

9) Making development more participatory (WCED report, 1987, as cited in Lele, 1991)

The “meeting the present needs” objective in the fundamental statement can be assumed to be

correspondent to the first and third goals, while the maintenance of environmental and social basis for

future generations can be operationalized through the remaining goals. However, difficulties arise

when these operational goals are put into practice.

The integration of environmental and social factors into developmental planning and projects

required attentions at national level from early stages. Policy-makers should include appropriate

concerns in key areas such as land use, industrial location and community development and well-

being, as well as introducing an overall framework to encompass individual infrastructural plannings

to fit into a common goal. However, projects are often discrete in terms of time period, targets and

resources. Too often, economic achievements are in favour over environmental and social concerns.

Negative impacts on surrounding communities and the environment are not made known to public

until later stages, when it was already too late and the impacts can only be partially mitigated. It is

important that both negative and positive impacts in a project are presented from initial planning stage

so as to allow comparison between alternatives and encourage public participation (United Nations

Environment Programme, 1981).

Another difficulty which has been getting enormous devotion from literature is the

sustainability indicators. The past decades have seen an explosion in attempts to apply environmental,

economic and social indicators in various jurisdictions, although they are not welcomed by everyone.

Meppem and Gill (1998) expressed their arguments, which stated:

“The objective of sustainability is not to win or lose and the intention is not to arrive at a

particular point…Success is determined retrospectively, so the emphasis in planning should be on

process and collectively considered, context-related progress rather than on achieving remote

targets.” (Meppem & Gill, 1998).

Bell and Morse (2005) agreed with this “wretched practice” in comparison with its popular

theory, and argued that the impact of this has transformed sustainability into a linear, one-dimensional

and “projectified” concept, where only one components of a system is considered, important perhaps

to some people, to make the project more credible. Robinson (2004) branded sustainability practice

“fake greenery” or “cosmetic environmentalism”. He claimed that there is no way to evaluate if a

product is sustainable due to lack of criteria and incompatibility of measuring indicators, and that the

green movement in labelling and certification for products and services are due to public and non-

governmental organizations’ (NGO) pressures.

Nevertheless, indicators are essential in policy-making to convey quantified goals and

objectives, although they are subjective by nature to a certain extent, and can vary depending on

preferences and interests of individual, corporates or nations. In the Agenda 21, it was suggested that

commonly used indicators like GDP or pollution level are insufficient in evaluating the relations

between development and environment (Jenicek, 2013). Since then, the amount of useful indicators

has grown exponentially. Dahl (2012) concluded after undertaking studies about practices of

sustainability reporting at national level worldwide that indicators are most effective when they are

adapted to a target audience, and should be selected in consultation with the users. He also realized

the needs for individual and international-level indicators. However, Dourojeanni (1997) reasoned

that since there are no universal formulae or common denominators exist, three dimensions of

sustainable development are measured using incompatible parameters, and thus, it would not be

possible to interlink three objectives into a single plane.

Dealing with sustainable development means embracing ambiguity and uncertainty since

there will be no clear-cut answer to every problems. There are also concerns over the absence of

indicators signified progress and transition, which would make policy and management intervention

much more effective (Dahl, 2012). This indicates an inadequacy in knowledge, expertise, data and

information required in developing countries to efficiently formulate and implement sustainable

development policies in general and sustainable energy in particular. Research, expert training and

infrastructure development should be given priorities and funded, keeping in mind the environmental

and social problems that are likely to be faced in nuclear power projects. Developing nations should

always develop their objectives and agenda based on their own economic capacities and technical and

cultural context.

Technological advancement -> link to nuclear energy, why Vietnam resort to it on its way to

achieve sustainable development.

Environmental sustainability of nuclear power

Nuclear power as a role in sustainable development

Future prospect of nuclear power

Is nuclear a truly sustainable energy source

Requirements for sustainable nuclear power

Drivers and barriers for nuclear in Vietnam

NUCLEAR POWER DETAILS

Environmental damages causes by energy-related activities are partly due to the loose legislation and corruption. Although nuclear power is theoretically CO2-free, the construction, transportation and operation of the plant will constitute to.

SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS OF VIETNAMESE NUCLEAR PROJECT

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS FROM SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE

DISCUSSION

CONCLUSION

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APPENDICES