Sustainability and Climate Change: Trends and Solutions

Jonathan LashWorld Resources Institute

http://www.wri.org

Millennial N. Hemisphere (AD1000-1999)

Source: IPCC TAR

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

270280290300310320330340350360370

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

part

s pe

r m

illio

n vo

lum

e

Mauna Loa (1958-present)

Siple Station (1750-)

299 ppmv

Highest in last 420,000 yrs

370 ppmvMost recent

Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm

Global CO2 Emissions Growth

August 28, 2005

Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Trends

The Frequency of Weather Related Disasters

Data:

Swiss Re 2005

Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003:

Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice

Antarctic Ice

New Patterns of Pest Damage

The New York Times, June 25, 2002

Amazon Drought

1960 – World’s 6th largest lake

1963 – 2001 shrunk 95%, wetlands spoilt

Source: UNEP – ONE PLANET MANY PEOPLE: Atlas of our Changing Environment

Lake Chad

Water withdrawals from rivers/lakes doubled since 1960

Changes in Ocean Circulation

• Transect at 23º N latitude– Measurements

taken in 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998, 2004

• Indicates a 30% reduction in ocean circulation volume since 1957

Source: Ocean current figure: www.NASA.govTransect information: Bryden, Harry L. et al. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N." Nature 438: 655-657. 1 December 2005

• That’s What One Degree Gets Us

• Where to Next?

Projections of CO2 and Temperature to 2100

Drought Expectations

The Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, and drought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus 3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.

Scenario of damages in 2050

Source: The Guardian, based on Pentagon report

People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by the 2080s

(Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection)

Source: IPCC TAR.

A More Poisonous Poison Ivy

Temperature Projections and Risk

Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels

• Energy intensity• Nuclear

• Renewables

The “Gap”Gap

technologies• E.g. CCS

Stabilizing CO2

Base Case and “Gap” Technologies

Source: Jae Edmonds, PNNL/Univ MD

20552005

14

7

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

1955

0

Currently

projected path

Flat path

Historical emissions

1.9

2105

14 GtC/y

7 GtC/y

Seven “wedges”

Wedges

O

Source: Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi

Energy Efficiency

Coal-based Synfuels with CCS

Wind power

Reforestation

Mass transit

Stabilization Triangle

2004 2054

7 GtC/y

14 GtC/y

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges

Carbon Capture & Storage

Adapted from:

Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi

Biofuels

Managing Risk: Measure/Manage

Dupont

Global Greenhouse Gases

•Alcoa Inc.•Cargill Dow LLC•Delphi Corporation•Dow Chemical Company•DuPont•FedEx Kinko's•General Motors•IBM•Interface•Johnson & Johnson•NatureWorks LLC•Pitney Bowes•Staples•Starbucks

GPMDG

GE: Ecomagination

Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing

Real-world examples

BrazilBiofuels for transportReducing the economic impact of oil imports and supporting the rural economy

ChinaInnovative transport approachesPromoting mobility while avoiding urban infrastructure and oil supply constraints

South AfricaCarbon capture and storageFinding ways to reduce the impact of coal in developing countries

IndiaRenewable energy in rural electrificationProviding electricity faster and safer to 500 million people

Farmer demonstrations in India around electricity access and

pricing

Electrification will have a major impact on climate change without new

policies and approaches

IEA, 2003

Mill

ion p

eople

wit

hout

ele

ctri

city

New York City circa 1950

New York City December 2001