ARMYFORESIGHTARMYFORESIGHTJohn J. Fittipaldi, CEP, Senior Fellow

Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI)

2007 Joint Services Environmental Management Conference Columbus, Ohio 21 May 2007

PURPOSE

• Fulfill charter responsibilities• Position the Army to anticipate

emerging environmental issues• Towards achieving sustainability

AGENDA

• AEPI Charter• Background on emerging issues

analysis• AEPI issue scanning, trends analysis

and foresight process• Status• Partnership opportunities

AEPI CHARTER

The AEPI mission is to assist the Secretariat in the development of proactive policies and strategies to address environmental issues that may have significant future impacts on the Army.

ISSUES MANAGEMENT CURVE

ManagementManagementStagesStages

MaintenanceMaintenanceStagesStages

EarlyEarlyAwareness &Awareness &ExpectationsExpectations

Societal &Societal &PoliticalPolitical

DevelopmentsDevelopments

Lobbying &Lobbying &LegislativeLegislative

ActionsActions

RegulationRegulation&&

LitigationLitigation

TimeTime

Publ

ic A

war

enes

sPu

blic

Aw

aren

ess

ISSUES MANAGEMENT CURVEPu

blic

Aw

aren

ess

Publ

ic A

war

enes

s

TimeTime

Global Water ScarcityGlobal Water Scarcity

Control Resistant PathogensControl Resistant Pathogens

Light PollutionLight Pollution

ZeroZero--Point EnergyPoint Energy

EMFEMF

Chlorinated CompoundsChlorinated Compounds

ISO 14000ISO 14000

Endocrine DisruptorsEndocrine Disruptors

ZeroZero--DischargeDischarge

Noise PollutionNoise Pollution

ParticulatesParticulates

Chemical DemilitarizationChemical Demilitarization

Depleted UraniumDepleted Uranium

Environmental EquityEnvironmental Equity

Pollution PreventionPollution Prevention

Early AwarenessEarly Awareness

Lobbying &Lobbying &LegislationLegislation

Regulation & LitigationRegulation & Litigation

SustainabilitySustainability

Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

EMERGING ISSUES CONTINUUM

Issue scanningTrends analysisForesightForecastingBackcastingScenario Building

• Futures

ISSUE SCANNING

• AEPI Fellows regularly track research interests and thrust area relevance

• Contract efforts to support systematic scanning:– American Council of UN Universities trends monitoring,

monthly scanning report analyzing topics with military implications.

– LMI systematic scanning to support foresight process with regular topical brochures via AEPI website.

– CTC special issue papers considered for foresight process.

EMERGING ISSUES

Monthly Report:

FORESIGHT PURPOSE

• Mechanism for improving and focusing organizational foresight on key environment, safety, and occupational health (ESOH) issues.

REGULAR INFORMATION

SHAPESTHINKING &

ACTIONS

WHAT IS FORESIGHT?

• Intelligence gathering for emerging issues• Directions, not predictions• Looking to the future

– the Army “strategic scout”• A charter responsibility of AEPI

Foresight Goal: Sustainability through improved ESOH policy decisions today,

preventing trends from becoming tomorrow’s issues

FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY

Regular cross-group working and Consultative Team sessions to discuss research, identify trends and confirm directions

Participatory—shaping topicsilluminating intersection where trends overlap with current Army ESOH policy/doctrine, from many perspectives

Vision-building—leading policy improvementidentifying policy gaps and need for improvement; crafting recommendations

Facilitated annual foresight Round Table with wider Army and scientific community to discuss emerging issues, possible scenarios, and policy implications

Regular topical papers to stimulate discussion in wider Army community

Systematic—scanningCollecting trend data and analyzing for ESOH policy implications, leveraging previous AEPI efforts

BIBLIOMETRIC SEARCH

• Subject Matter Experts are identified during a search by LMI Librarians, to find an academic who will help craft the white paper “thought piece” to guide the bulletin

FORESIGHT CONSULTATIVE TEAM

• Purpose:– Assist in refining the foresight process to accomplish

objectives and ensure Army relevance– Provide perspectives from individual organizations,

extensive background research, and wealth of experience to clearly identify topics

– Shape topics and prepare for the annual workshop to wider audience

• Membership:– ERDC/CERL– Army Engineer School– US Military Academy, West Point– HQ USACE, Strategic Planning– Army Research Office– Army Environmental Center– Army Environmental Policy Institute

TOPIC EVOLUTION

• Climate Change has evolved as a topic…• Began with:

– Military Responsibility in Natural Disaster Response and Recovery

– Military Response to Resource-related Conflicts– Market-based Strategies to Manage Carbon

Emissions– Military Role as a Leader in Policy, Strategy,

Technology and Practice• Now framed as:

– Climate Change and Army Sustainability (May ’07)

TOPICAL FORESIGHT BROCHURES

EMERGING TOPICS

• Climate Change and Army Sustainability– Subject of AEPI’s May 07 bulletin

EMERGING TOPICS• Sustainability at Base Camps (?)

– Stability Operations (Aug 06 bulletin)– Location-appropriate technology– Indigenous vs. Modular

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/images/iraq-fobs-2005apr21.jpg

EMERGING TOPICS• Clean, Abundant and Safe Water

– Decaying Infrastructure (home and abroad)– Scarcity amidst high-density populations– Using nanotechnology for waste water treatment

(revisiting Nov 05 bulletin)

EMERGING TOPICS• Ecosystem Genomics and Army Land

Management– Detect environmental stressors– Optimize bio-remediation efforts– Detect subtle changes at molecular level long before

detection at the macroscopic scale.– Enhance land management on training/testing lands.

• Genetic engineering– Change (human) physical features, – Extend lifespan, Merge brains with

computers and bodies with robots.– Implications for warriors, friend and foe?

ESOH issues?

COMMUNICATION PLAN

• Regular release on AEPI website• Publicize via existing email distribution• Publish paper copies for wide

distribution and discussion• Roundtables and workshop to shape

and disseminate

PARTNERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES

• Army Consultative Team meetings to address specific topics as needed

• Annual Round Table to reach a wider audience within and outside the Army:– July 24-25, 2007 in McLean, VA

• Feedback via AEPI website, or POC to continue to shape topics and process– Peer review and Surveys

SUCCESS METRICS

• Pre-publication audience surveys– identifying target audience wants/needs

• Targeted external peer review• Post-publication targeted surveys

– ensure wants/needs met

Continuous improvement

SUMMARY

• Foresight process is essential AEPI activity• Process is continuously refined to ensure

strategic relevance • Foresight presents organizational opportunity to

support the Soldier, search for sustainability, and shape our future

“The wise man must remember that while he is a descendant of the past, he is a parent of the future.”

Herbert Spencer (1820-1903)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• LMI– Mr. Matt Phillip– Mr. Chris Werle– Mr. Lisa Watts – Mr. Fred Boecher– Ms. Erica Rohr– Ms. Roja Kolachina– Mr. Steve Stone

*Mr. Bill Goran, ERDC/CERL*Dr. Rebecca Johnson, AES*COL Gene Palka, USMA *Mr. Lindy Wolner, USACE *Dr. Kurt Preston, ARO*Ms Nancy Natoli, AEC*Mr. John Fittipaldi, AEPI

•Consultative Group

•NDCEE-CTC–Mr. David Eady–Ms. Elizabeth Keysar–Mr. Roger Morin

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS

John J. Fittipaldi, CEPSenior Fellow

Army Environmental Policy Institute (AEPI)

john.fittipaldi@hqda.army.mil

703-604-2307

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