Sushil finance commodity daily

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  • Friday, January 02, 2015 For Private Circulation Only

    MAJOR COMMODITIES

    Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change

    Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change

    Gold 5-Feb 27055 26617 26703 -346

    Gold (Oz) Feb 1203.90 1179.50 1184.10 0.00

    Silver 5-Mar 36215 36022 36210 220

    Silver (Oz) Mar 16.31 15.55 15.60 0.00

    Crude Oil 16-Jan 3410 3383 3400 31

    Crude Oil Feb 53.68 53.66 53.68 0.41

    Natural Gas 27-Jan 187.00 182.80 185.20 -3.90

    Natural Gas Feb 2.90 2.90 2.90 0.01

    Copper 27-Feb 400.50 397.50 399.55 0.45

    Copper 3M 6337.25 6280.75 6284.25 -31.75

    Nickel 30-Jan 970.60 962.00 967.90 23.40

    Nickel 3M 15219.00 14925.00 15148.00 97.00

    Aluminium 30-Jan 117.45 116.40 117.30 1.35

    Aluminium 3M 1879.00 1850.00 1859.00 -1.00

    Lead 30-Jan 118.90 117.35 117.90 0.65

    Lead 3M 1881.50 1845.75 1856.75 -23.00

    Zinc 30-Jan 138.10 137.15 137.80 0.10

    Zinc 3M 2199.00 2174.50 2179.50 -5.00

    News & Development

    Activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, a private survey showed on Wednesday,

    highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.

    Crude inventories fell by 1.8 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an decrease of 67,000

    barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.0 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a gain of 2.1 million

    barrels. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.9 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.5 million

    barrel increase, the EIA data showed.

    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability

    was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.

    (Source: Reuters)

  • Page 2

    Commodity Daily

    Gold

    Gold fell 1.5 percent on pressure from weak oil prices and gains in the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, and was poised to end 2014 down a slight 2 percent after falling below $1,200 an ounce. The impact of a stronger dollar was partially offset by demand from investors worried about tensions in Russia and political uncertainty in Greece. Bullion was on track for a small fall this year after a turbulent 2013, when prices fell by a third following 12 years of gains. Gold's main driver in 2014 has been a buoyant dollar, which was poised to post its biggest yearly gain since 2005, and anticipated U.S. interest rate hikes may strengthen the greenback's appeal in the coming year. Higher rates weigh on non-interest-bearing bullion.

    Outlook

    We expect gold prices are likely to trade on negative note on the back of US interest rate outlook.

    Technical Outlook

    Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

    Feb Sell @ R1 26500 26600 26699 26850 26970

    *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

    Silver Silver fell 3.9 percent to $15.63 an ounce on Wednesday and was on track for a 19.5 percent annual decline.

    Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade on negative note on the back of US interest rate outlook.

    Technical Outlook

    Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

    Mar Sell @ R1 35200 35700 36210 36600 37000

    *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

  • Page 3

    Commodity Daily

    Crude Oil Oil prices fell on Wednesday to a 5-1/2-year low and ended with their second-biggest annual decline ever, down by half since June under pressure from a global glut of crude. Just before the close, Brent and U.S. oil futures bounced off session lows. But prices still settled at their lowest since May 2009. Weekly U.S. data showed crude oil stockpiles fell more than expected, but inventories at the oil hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, grew, keeping prices depressed. Oil prices have collapsed this year as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries opted to maintain the same level of output despite a global glut caused by expanding U.S. shale output and diminished demand growth from China. U.S. crude closed with its second-largest annual decline on record. The biggest came in 2008, when prices collapsed in the wake of the financial crisis. The last round of OPEC output cuts eventually brought them off lows near $30 a barrel. In contrast, OPEC at a Nov. 27 meeting this year decided against cutting output. Despite its own forecasts of a growing surplus, the group opted to defend its market share against shale oil and other rival supply sources. Turmoil in Libya dented OPEC supply in December to a six-month low, a Reuters survey showed, although forecasts still point to a glut.

    Outlook

    We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure.

    Technical Outlook

    Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

    Jan Sell @ R1 3300 3350 3400 3430 3460

    *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

    Natural Gas U.S. natural gas prices ended the year down more than 30 percent for their worst performance since 2011 after unseasonably warm weather raised questions on whether gas in storage was excessive for the heating required in coming months. While weather forecasts from this week onward have turned cold, price rebounds have been restrained by worries about whether gas in storage was possibly higher than needed when cold weather peaks in January and February. Latest weekly consumption numbers for gas from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 26 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the Christmas week ended Dec. 26. A Reuters poll of analysts had predicted a 38-bcf draw.

    Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of normal temperature over the next few days.

    Technical Outlook

    Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

    Jan Sell @ R1 179 182 185.2 188 191

    *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

    \

  • Page 4

    Commodity Daily

    LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel

    Current Stock 177025 221975 691600 4210275 413148

    Change 4775 -25 -3300 -6575 444

    % Change 2.77% -0.01% -0.47% -0.16% 0.11%

    Base Metals Copper prices ended 2014 with a loss of 14 percent, their biggest annual decline in three years, on concerns that a supply surplus will hit the market next year just as Chinese economic growth shifts down another gear. Losses in copper, the most widely followed metal, were matched by tin and exceeded only by lead - a market that was in surplus in the year to September - while nickel was the best-performing metal thanks to Indonesia's ore export ban. Year-end adjustments to market positions helped copper bounce off 4-1/2-year lows of $6,230 a tonne earlier this week, but it resumed its decline on Wednesday, ending down 0.41 percent on the day at $6,299 a tonne. Weighing on the metal this year, the global copper market is expected to record a surplus of about 390,000 tonnes in 2015, according to an industry group. That would follow five straight years of deficit. Data on Wednesday showed activity in China's factory sector shrank for the first time in seven months in December, highlighting the urgency behind a series of surprise easing moves by Beijing in the past two months.

    Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on the negative on the back of slowing industrial growth in China.

    Technical Outlook

    Dec/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

    Copper Sell @ R1 395 398 399.5 401 403

    Nickel Sell @ R1 955 961 967.9 975 985

    Alum Sell @ R1 115.5 116.5 117.3 117.5 118.5

    Lead Sell @ R1 116 117 117.9 119 120

    Zinc Sell @ R1 136 137 137.8 138.2 139

    *Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

  • Page 5

    Commodity Daily

    DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT

    Fri, Jan 2 1:30pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -72.0K -14.7K Medium

    1:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.7 Medium

    2:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49 Medium

    3:00pm UK Manufacturing PMI 53.7 53.5 High

    3:00pm UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m 2.5B 2.6B Medium

    8:30pm US ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.6 58.7 High

    For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000

    Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP

    [email protected] Sr. Research Analyst

    [email protected] Research Analyst

    [email protected] WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.

    STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER

    This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its

    accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any

    transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors

    should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and

    for their results.

    Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request.