Survey of Ukrainian Public Opinion: May, 2013
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Transcript of Survey of Ukrainian Public Opinion: May, 2013
1
International Republican Institute
Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization
Rating Group Ukraine
with funding from the National Endowment for
Democracy
Public Opinion Survey
Residents of the
Ukraine
May 14-28, 2013
2
Methodology The survey was conducted by the Public Opinion and Market Research Company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.
The main sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.
Data were collected on May 14 – 28, 2013, through face-to-face in-home interviews with the respondents. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. The response rate was 63 percent.
The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:
• Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine, Kiev and Sevastopol).
All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.
• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of
selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the
settlement in each region. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size:
• City more than one million residents
• City 500,000-999,000
• City 100,000-499,000
• City 50,000-99,000
• City to 50,000
• Village
• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
• The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the
random route method.
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
3
MOOD OF UKRAINE
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
4
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction
or wrong direction?
13
24
15
71
73
66
58
69
16
14
20
18
16
13
14
0 20 40 60 80 100
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
5
Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household
changed?
1
1
1
6
6
9
14
8
37
39
45
37
46
36
34
30
27
30
18
18
13
15
14
2
2
3
5
1
0.2
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
6
In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine
to change?
1
1
2
7
8
13
17
8
30
32
35
31
38
32
32
26
24
29
17
15
11
11
12
12
14
16
12
0.4
113
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
7
ISSUES
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
8
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following
methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?
73
64
54
48
28
24
23
17
18
29
38
40
60
63
66
71
8
7
8
12
11
13
11
12
Collecting signatures for
petition, letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations without
permission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings or
enterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
9
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be
with?
42
36
37
32
40
40
43
41
42
37
3
4
5
6
5
15
17
17
20
18
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
10
What have you heard about the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the
European Union?
Heard a lot about it
17%
Heard something about it
53%
DK/NA
5%
Haven't heard anything
about it
25%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
11
Do you think the Association Agreement with the European Union, if signed, will be
useful or harmful for Ukraine? (Respondents who have heard about the Association Agreement with the EU, N=832)
DK/NA
25%
Very useful
17%
Rather useful
34%
Very harmful
6%
Rather harmful
18%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
12
17
19
15
22
16
16
33
30
37
43
33
28
18
20
16
10
20
21
6
6
6
5
4
9
25
25
26
20
27
26
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and
older
Very useful Rather useful Rather harmful Very harmful DK/NA
17
31
18
6
10
33
44
36
27
25
18
10
11
26
28
6
1
7
12
8
25
14
28
29
29
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
Do you think the Association Agreement with the European Union, if signed, will be
useful or harmful for Ukraine?
(Respondents who have heard about the Association Agreement with the EU, N=832)
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
13
How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities?
52
42
40
24
34
49
45
54
12
6
10
18
2
3
4
3
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Russia
Poland
European Union
USA
Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
14
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues)
53
51
45
26
23
22
21
15
9
7
6
5
3
3
2
3
1
Unemployment
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Political instability
Crime
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
15
54%
55%
47%
23%
21%
21%
21%
18%
8%
7%
7%
6%
2%
2%
2%
3%
1%
52%
48%
44%
29%
25%
22%
21%
13%
10%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
1%
2%
2%
51%
57%
44%
23%
13%
25%
24%
18%
11%
6%
5%
7%
3%
3%
2%
3%
2%
59%
50%
50%
24%
23%
24%
22%
13%
9%
6%
7%
6%
3%
2%
1%
2%
0%
50%
50%
43%
30%
29%
18%
19%
15%
9%
10%
6%
4%
3%
3%
2%
3%
2%
Unemployment
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Political instability
Crime
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
18-29 years
50 years
and older 30-49 years
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues)
Male Female
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
16
63%
48%
48%
22%
15%
28%
20%
18%
10%
2%
4%
7%
2%
3%
4%
4%
1%
48%
48%
42%
29%
29%
20%
22%
17%
10%
2%
7%
8%
5%
2%
1%
2%
2%
57%
49%
48%
34%
24%
18%
19%
13%
7%
12%
7%
3%
1%
3%
1%
1%
0%
48%
59%
45%
21%
24%
21%
23%
12%
10%
14%
5%
4%
3%
3%
1%
4%
2%
Unemployment
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Political instability
Crime
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Hryvnia devaluation
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
East South
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine? (Three mentioned issues)
West Center REGIONS:
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
17
52 54 54 50 53
44
39
48
37
51
42
43
43 40 45
39
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May 2013
Unemployment Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production Control over price growth
What are the most important problems facing Ukraine?
(Top four issues identified)
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
18
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
you personally? (Three mentioned issues)
54
50
37
27
22
21
12
12
10
9
9
7
5
3
1
8
2
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Relations with Russia
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
19
54%
54%
31%
30%
24%
18%
12%
13%
8%
8%
10%
7%
5%
2%
1%
7%
2%
53%
47%
41%
24%
20%
24%
13%
11%
10%
10%
9%
7%
5%
4%
0%
8%
2%
54%
60%
23%
30%
23%
24%
15%
13%
9%
8%
9%
6%
4%
1%
0%
6%
3%
51%
60%
30%
27%
23%
20%
11%
14%
11%
10%
9%
9%
3%
3%
1%
7%
2%
56%
37%
50%
24%
20%
20%
12%
11%
10%
9%
10%
6%
7%
3%
0%
10%
2%
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Relations with Russia
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
18-29 years
50 years
and older 30-49 years
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
you personally? (Three mentioned issues)
Male Female
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
20
57%
63%
35%
24%
22%
17%
13%
12%
3%
8%
12%
9%
1%
1%
1%
13%
0%
54%
48%
43%
24%
22%
23%
17%
11%
14%
8%
11%
8%
1%
2%
1%
3%
2%
29%
50%
31%
30%
20%
18%
9%
14%
11%
5%
6%
7%
8%
3%
0%
4%
4%
48%
42%
35%
29%
23%
25%
10%
13%
10%
13%
9%
5%
10%
6%
1%
12%
2%
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Relations with Russia
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
East South
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
you personally? (Three mentioned issues)
West Center REGIONS:
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
21
56 57 59
54 54
46 51
49 51
50
41 34 36
39
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May 2013
Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor
What are the most important problems facing residents of
Ukraine?
(Top three issues identified)
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
22
POLITICS
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
23
If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such
elections?
Definitely yes
33%
Rather yes
36%
Rather no
8%
Definitely no
19%
DK/NA
4%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
24
33
33
34
35
28
38
36
35
36
34
37
35
8
9
7
9
10
6
19
19
19
17
22
17
4
4
4
5
3
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and
older
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA
33
38
37
26
31
36
40
37
36
31
8
8
6
8
10
19
11
17
23
24
4
3
3
7
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in
such elections?
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
25
If the election for the president of Ukraine were held next Sunday, would you vote in
such election?
Definitely yes
38%
Rather yes
36%
Rather no
5%
Definitely no
17%
DK/NA
4%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
26
38
37
38
37
33
42
36
34
37
39
35
35
5
7
5
5
8
5
17
18
16
16
20
14
4
4
4
3
4
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and
older
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA
38
47
40
28
34
36
40
36
35
34
5
3
5
7
7
17
7
17
22
20
4
3
2
8
4
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
If the election for the president of Ukraine were held next Sunday, would you
vote in such election?
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
27
In your opinion, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened
during last two years?
73
60
59
57
55
53
51
50
46
46
45
40
39
37
35
32
29
25
24
33
31
34
33
34
32
37
37
29
45
43
41
48
40
53
55
46
2
4
6
7
9
7
4
7
13
4
5
7
12
9
3
12
9
15
1
2
3
2
2
5
13
5
4
21
5
9
8
6
22
3
7
14
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Prices
Healthcare
Employment
Political stability
Economy of Ukraine
Government competence
Agriculture
Fight against corruption
Social protection
Small and medium business
Housing and communal services
Fight against criminality
Relations with Russia
Stability of the hryvnia
Rights to land ownership
Salary/Pension payments
Situation with languages
European integration of Ukraine
Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
28
If a referendum was held on the following issues, how would you vote?
72
43
40
36
33
16
8
26
33
37
25
34
11
11
11
10
14
16
9
19
16
17
28
33
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Introduction of constitutional law on the right of citizens to
dismiss officials, deputies, judges, heads of law-enforcement
agencies of all levels
Joining of Ukraine to the European Union
Joining of Ukraine to the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan
and Russia
Election of the President of Ukraine only in one round of
elections
Introduction of purely majoritarian system of parliamentary
elections
Introduction of bicameral parliament
Yes No Will not participate DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
29
Do you feel that the 2012 parliamentary elections were free and fair and reflected
political preferences of the people?
Definitely yes
5%
Rather yes
21%
Rather no
29%
Definitely no
30%
DK/NA
15%
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
30
5
5
5
4
3
8
21
20
21
17
22
21
29
28
29
34
29
26
30
33
28
30
31
30
15
14
16
15
15
15
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and
older
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA
5
2
3
7
8
21
12
17
28
26
29
37
29
28
24
30
40
37
19
23
15
9
14
18
19
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
Do you feel that the 2012 parliamentary elections were free and fair and
reflected political preferences of the people?
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
31
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
19
25
24
19
24
6
4
6
5
6
7
4
9
5
8
7
6
6
6
9
5
4
5
5
5
54
56
49
57
47
2
1
2
3
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
32
24
26
22
52
28
5
6
6
5
10
7
2
8
9
7
11
13
3
9
9
10
9
14
6
5
6
4
3
8
3
47
43
51
15
29
79
1
1
1
0
1
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL
RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and
older
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
24
19
22
16
34
6
7
6
6
3
8
6
8
11
9
9
8
11
11
8
5
5
8
4
2
47
54
44
50
43
1
1 0
2
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
33
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
34
45
55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ukraine
Gender
Female
Male
23
35
43
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Age groups
50+
30-49
18-29
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
35
7
26
38
4
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Education
University/Higher
education
Non-complete higher
Vocational secondary
General secondary
Non-complete secondary
72
9
10 3
4 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Religion DK/NA
Atheist
Other
Believe in God but don't
belong to any religion
Greek Catholic
Orthodox
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
36
31
15 1
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Sector of employment
Don't work
Public non-
government sector
State sector
Private sector
25
1 15
2
31
3 9
10 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Occupation Other
Unemployed
Housewife
Student
Pensioner
Higher and medium level
executive
White collar
Farmer
Blue collar
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
37
42
36
21
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Language usually spoken at home
Other
Ukrainian and
Russian equally
Russian
Ukrainian
80
18
2
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Ethnicity
Other
Russian
Ukrainian
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
38
97
2
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ukraine
Membership in a political party or nongovernmental
organization
Member of a
nongovernmental
organization
Member of a
party
None
23
30
19
28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine
Regions*
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
*Oblasts included in each region:
West Ukraine – Volyn, Zakarpartia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnitskiy, Chernivtsi
Center Ukraine – Vinnitsya, Zhitomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv City
South Ukraine – Crimea Autonomous Region, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson
East Ukraine – Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv