Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the ESCWA Region

7/28/2019 Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the ESCWA Region

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Sre Ecic

ad Scia Deees

i e ESCWA Rei

2009-2010

United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia


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SuRvEy o EConomIC AnD SoCIAl DEvElopmEntSIn thE ESCWA REgIon 2009-2010

te desiais eed ad e reseai e aeria i is bicai

d i e exressi a ii waseer e ar e Secrearia

e uied nais cceri e sas a cr, errir, ci r area, r is

ariies, r cceri e deiiai is riers r bdaries.

mei ca aes ad cercia rdcs des i e edrsee

e uied nais.

Reereces ae, wereer ssibe, bee eried.

Sbs uied nais dces are csed caia eers cbied wi

res. mei sc a sb idicaes a reerece a uied nais dce.

E/ESCWA/EDgD/2011/1

ISSn. 0255-5123

ISBn. 978-92-1-128344-0

e-ISBn. 978-92-1-054815-1

11-0036

unItED nAtIonS puBlICAtIon

Saes n. E.11.II.l.6


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Preface

te 2008 iacia crisis e uied Saes Aerica, wic sared i e

sbrie arke, as deeed i e s seere ba ecic crisis sice e

grea Deressi 1929. Wa reeed a ee re seris dwr was e

irdci recedeed, crdiaed isca ad ear sis ackaes i

e re deeed ecies. hweer, e rice a r e crisis si reais a a

recrd-breaki i. I addii is seere eecs i nr Aerica ad e Erea

ui cries, e crisis as ressre eeri arkes wrdwide, cribi

as decies i eir sck arkes, rss desic rdc (gDp) rw raes, i

rices ad reees, cdi exrs, ri iese, rei direc iese

(DI), ris reees ad wrkers reiaces. Wie cerai deeed cries ad

a ber are eeri arke cries are w swi se sis recer,

e eec e crisis e eber cries e Ecic ad Scia Cissi Weser Asia (ESCWA) as e ded. I is ssibe a e eaie

ecic ad scia cseqeces e crisis, r exae ee, er,

ea, edcai, eder ad rw wi be e r se ie ce, esecia ie

a, s ar, e ik bewee rw ad ee eerai ad er aeiai

i ESCWA eber cries as reaied weak, desie e rece i b erid ad

reaed secacar gDp rw errace rir e crisis.

Weakesses i e acrecic icies rsed, as we as si weak reia rade

ad iacia ierai ikaes ad ea deedece exera resrces iace

deee i ESCWA eber cries ae caeed e ba iacia crisis i

ecies e ESCWA rei, seere derii rece reia ad ieraia

ers ierae se cries wi e res e wrd. mreer, wer rwrsecs i re adaced ecies, ier iaci css ad a decrease i caia

iws are eadi sari crre acc ad bde deicis ad a csie

rer iedies e ssaiabii e bic deb ESCWA eber cries

ad crre excae rae reies i seera e. Cerai ESCWA eber cries

si ser r e absece bd arkes, a cbiai iadeqae iacia secr

serisi, r assesse ad aaee iacia risk ad e aieace

ixed excae raes. tese acrs, a ers, ae acceaed e eecs

e crisis i e rei. A rade ad baizai isses ad e ierai

iacia sses ESCWA cries wi e re are iacia arkes e

Erea ui ad e uied Saes were a e ai reass w e eecs

were e, i was acceaed b desic acrecic, isca, ear, iacia

ad scia isses, ab e ack ecic diersiicai ad ea reiace i

exrs ad reees r rw ad deee, ersise i ee raes,

e exisece er ad w ees a deee (ai edcai, ea

ad eder ieqai) ad iied isca sace, de accaed bic deb, i cerai

ESCWA eber cries.

te ba iacia crisis as direc aeced e ESCWA rei, ia rade ad

caia w caes, as we as r decies i wrd i rices ad reees.

PREFACE


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i


Cerai ESCWA eber cries ae exerieced a sar decie i wrd dead r

eir exrs ad decie i b desic ad ieraia iqidi ced wi er

aerscks e iacia crisis, sc as wer i rices ad reees, ae cribed

rer acrecic ibaaces. n-i exr reees decied b ab uS$75

bii bewee e ears 2008 ad 2009 i a ESCWA eber cries, wi reaed

decies i reiaces, ri ad rei direc ieses. ts, i addii is

erar iac, e crisis a as case a widei e ice a bewee e

re adaced ecies ad e ESCWA rei ad a sbseqe sw e seed

e ierai rcess. hweer, e w deree iacia ierai wi ba

caia arkes acieed s ar, iied exsre e baki sse ESCWA eber

cries deriaie iacia asses ad sier r icreased bic sedi i e

g Cerai Cci (gCC) cries ae eed ree sbsaia a r

e crisis.

te resse ESCWA e ba acia crisis was seadas. te Daascsr resdi e Ieraia iacia Crisis i e ESCWA Rei, wic

was ed 7 ma 2009, receded adi ssaiabe sca ic r bsi

desic dead; arei irasrcre, aricre, idsr, ea, edcai,

eire ad scia reci ecaiss; ecrai e risi iqidi

eber cries aci is srae; eaci e rear raewrk i e

acia secr; ri reaer reia ierai, aricar i ear ad

acia aairs; ecrai iese e serei wea ds ESCWA eber

cries i e rea ec; rsi diersicai redce deedec e i

secr; aciiai irareia fws rade i ds ad serices, ee ad caia;

ri S-S cerai; sreei ee ad scia reci

icies ad esri re acie ariciai deei cries i aai e

ba ec.

gie scie sca sace ad ideede ear icies, cerai ESCWA eber

cries ae reied ear ad sca adjse easres dae e eecs

e crisis e rei. A e bid rei excae reseres rir e crisis i e

ess diersied ecies (lDEs) dri e i b erid 2002 2008 csied e

rs ie deece. te secd ie was e irdci cssa sca sii ackaes

i lDEs, wi eia r rer sca ad ear iereis we warraed.

Were ere was exsre ba acia arkes, esecia i e gCC cries

ad iied sca sace as i leba, Jrda, e Sda ad yee, ear ariies

ad ieree direc, wi e excei leba, i acia arkes, sabiize

e ad caia arkes ad acie rec e acia secr b sc easres as

caia ijecis ad sare rcases.

Ee cerai ESCWA eber cries ae rece derake se acia

rers ad rsed sd acrecic icies, e crre exes acia crisis

is disrriae eaizi e ad creai a addiia rde a wi ae

be sred i e ear re, as sr-er caia a ce aai sar fwi

eir acia arkes back se a are re are. Rece acia daa idicae

a caia fws ae bee reisered as a res rece iica ad scia ri

PREFACE


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i E ad tisia. ESCWA eber cries eed exer rer iesie ers

raise eir sare ba DI ad ri ifws, wic ae reaied reaie

w. measres a cd be ake, i addii adeqae acrecic icies

resd e crre acia crisis, icde e acceerai S-S ecic,

acia ad rade ierai ers, ced wi eaced rer rraes ad

sressi isiia ad erace asecs i aricar. mreer, e sabe

iica eire ad as ad rece iica ad scia ri i E, leba,

paesie, tisia ad yee ad e aera ad iicais e ba acia

crisis ae bee cdcie araci caia ad eaci ad iri e

rw errace ESCWA eber cries. Caia accai ad a es

DI r ri ieses ae, i w, aied bri a siica rw bees

e area. te sabe iica eire ad cfics a ae aed e ESCWA

rei ae bee a deerre iese, caia accai ad e iree

abr arke cdiis.

te rw k r 2011 reais reaie rbs wi recas gDp rw

raes aerai 4.2 er ce r e gCC cries ad 5.7 er ce r e re

diersied ecies (mDEs) rir rece iica ad scia res. hweer,

desie e siie rw ad ecic recas, e scia k reais beak,

wi rer execed deerirai i as a scia (er, ee ad

eder eqai) ad a deee (ea ad edcai) idicars. Wie

e ESCWA rei aears ae weaered e ba acia crisis we, scia

deee i e rei is execed be wide ad aderse aeced b e crisis

i e ci ew ears. ESCWA eber cries wi, erere, eed irdce

a ew deee srae a srees e ricke-dw eec bewee ecic

rw, ee eerai ad er aeiai eecie dea wi reia

cric ee ad er rdes.

As is sre was bei aized, e Jasie Rei ered i tisia, wed

b e ls Rei i E ad e Cacs Rei i e liba Arab Jaairia.

tese ees are recedeed i eir daics ad e eia cae e wi bri

e rei. te cseqeces is sea cae wi bece aare as ees

d. A e sae ie, i is eide cear a a ew de ecic deee

i e rei is eeri ad i is criica a i resds e asirais e ee

w ae ed ese reis. Beer ecic icies re d erace ad

isii-bidi are re eeded creae re ad beer jbs ad bri ab

e ecessar cae e rei as asired .

te rs caer e sre reses a eera eriew e acia crisis ad is

iicais b a ba ee as we as a reia ee. tis caer as reses

rece i secr deees r e rse caris wi acia deees

r a beer dersadi e iicais e ba acia crisis ESCWA

eber cries.

te secd caer reses a deaied assesse ad iri e aes

acrecic ad acia deees i ESCWA eber cries. I as

iis rece acia ad ecic reds r a beer dersadi e rece

PREFACE


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iii


acrecic ic deees, si e s --dae ecic daa ceced

a dai basis b e Ecic Aasis Seci e Ecic Deee ad

gbaizai Diisi ESCWA. tis caer rides a exs e acrecic

icies i ace, adeqae acrecic exi sraeies i e aera e ba

crisis r ESCWA eber cries ad rses exi sraeies r re icies ad

rsecs r ecic ad scia deee i e rei. tis caer as rides

a exs e scia iicais (ee, eder, er, ea ad edcai)

e ba acia crisis r ESCWA eber cries wi reaed exi-srae scia

icies dea wi is aera.

te ird caer iis e aes deees i ers Arab ecic

ierai i e wake e ba acia crisis. trade ad acia ierai are

care exred r e rse rsi adeqae acrecic exi ic

sraeies r e crisis ad rer eace ecic ierai bewee ESCWA

eber cries. I is ared a reaer Arab ecic ierai cd aedaeed e eecs e acia crisis ESCWA eber cries.

te r caer addresses deeea acricies, werei i wd ae

bee beer r e rei ae icrred a si bier sck r e acia

crisis ad i bee re deeed acia, a r i ae bee csied b e

derdeee is arke. uderdeee as a ai rereses e wrs

a crises. ESCWA eber cries beeed aria r fws assciaed wi

e i b a ccded i 2008, de, aai, e issi ik bewee rw

ad ee eerai. Ecic bees a e rei accred as a res d

refec reewed deee ward ssaiabe rw. Raer, e aer areae

resrce fws siies a issed deee ri. pi srses eared i e

as i b wrk i a raewrk r ssaiabe deee wi reqire sei dead ijecis a raise rdci i daic secrs, secica, aacri.

te rse is caer is idei aacri as a sraeic daic secr,

ss wi deee rer, sie qa r e rei deiae r is

crre jbess rw rajecr ad a iae aide a eia acia crisis.

te caer ks a w e rece acia ad ecic crisis as ce aai

deried rs i se-reai arkes ad aai icreased execais r rear

iereis b e Sae. hweer, i is cear weer eber cries wi be abe

ee ese execais ad sccess a e baaci, sabiizi ad sri

re reqired. ts, is caer reisis e debae ab e re e Sae i scia

aairs, ks a e siai i e ESCWA rei ad bris se e qesis

reia icakers i d ieres i e raewrk i debae ab a

ew scia crac ad ab scia deee.

te a caer draws a se ccsis ad ic recedais.

PREFACE


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i


Contents

Pagepreace ............................................................................................................................................... Abbreiais ..................................................................................................................................... xiii

ChapterI. THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN OVERVIEW ......................................................................................... 3

A. gba iicais e crisis ............................................................................................... 3

B. Reia iicais e crisis ............................................................................................ 9

C. oi secr deee............................................................................................................. 12

II. RECENT ECONOMIC TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ESCWA REGION

AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ............................................................................................................. 19

A. Irdci ............................................................................................................................. 19

B. Rea gDp rw, ifai ad exr raes ........................................................................... 20

C. isca sace .............................................................................................................................. 24

D. Caia fws ............................................................................................................................ 26

E. Bd arkes ........................................................................................................................... 37

. pbic deb ............................................................................................................................... 37

g. Exera baace ad excae rae icies ............................................................................. 41

h. isca ad ear ic ....................................................................................................... 46

I. geera eriew ad rsecs ............................................................................................... 50

J. Scia daics ........................................................................................................................ 56

K. macrecic ic ririies ad exi sraeies ................................................................. 62

III. REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND THE GLOBAL

FINANCIAL CRISIS.............................................................................................................................................. 71

A. Irareia rade ierai ................................................................................................. 71

B. Irareia acia ierai ............................................................................................ 83

C. pic recedais ad ccsis ................................................................................. 85

IV. DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS................................................................. 91

A. hrdesaci aacri: ack ecic diersicai ............................................... 91B. Sas q i ecic diersicai...................................................................................... 92

C. te cce ice, irs ad sses ................................................................................... 92

D. te wa rward...................................................................................................................... 94

V. SOCIAL POLICY, SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE STATE ................................................................................... 99

A. Irdci ............................................................................................................................. 99

B. Deee i e Arab wrd ............................................................................................... 99

C. tie r ic debae? ............................................................................................................ 103

VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................... 109

Bibira....................................................................................................................................... 120

CONTENTS


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x


LIST OF TABLES

1. grw ad ifai raes, 2008-2011 ........................................................................................ 4

2. Wrd ee raes, 2005-2009 ....................................................................................... 5

3. Crde i rice esiai ad recas, 2008-2011 ..................................................................... 14

4. oi rdci i e ESCWA rei, 2006-2011 ........................................................................ 14

5. grss i exr reees i e ESCWA rei, 2006-2011 ........................................................ 15

6. Rea gDp rw rae ad cser ifai rae, 2007-2011 ................................................... 20

7. Wrkers reiaces, 2005-2009 ................................................................................................ 28

8. DI ifws b eeri rei, 2007-2009 ................................................................................ 28

9. DI ifws ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 ................................................................. 30

10. pri ifws seeced mDEs, 2005-2009 ........................................................................... 34

11. Sck arke caiaizai i ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2010......................................... 35

12. pbic deb ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009.................................................................. 39

13. uee raes i ESCWA eber cries, 2004-2009 ................................................... 59

14. Ecic eess ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009..................................................... 72

15. Irareia rade seeced rade-ieraed reis, 2006-2007 ............................................. 74

16. ta irs ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .............................................................. 75

17. ta exrs ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .............................................................. 75

18. ta ad irareia rade ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 ...................................... 76

19. ta ad irareia exrs ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .................................. 76

20. Irareia irs ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .................................................. 77

21. Irareia exrs ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .................................................. 78

22. Irareia rade ESCWA eber cries as a erceae a rade, 2005-2009 ........ 79

23. Irareia rade ESCWA eber cries as a erceae gDp, 2005-2009 ................. 80

24. ta ad irareia rade, gCC cries, 2005-2009 ........................................................... 81

25. ta ad irareia rade, mDEs, 2005-2009 ........................................................................ 82

26. Raki ESCWA eber cries b aerae abse ad reaie ae ira-ESCWA

rade, 2005-2009 ......................................................................................................................... 83

27. Irareia ESCWA iese, 2008 ....................................................................................... 84

28. maacri irs ad exrs b rei, 1999 ................................................................... 93

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LIST OF FIGURES

1. Ieres raes ajr wrd crrecies, 2008-2010 ..................................................................... 7

2. rei excae raes ajr wrd crrecies, 2008-2010 ...................................................... 7

3. ESCWA cries rea gDp rw raes, 2003-2011 ................................................................... 11

4. oer acrecic ad acia iicais e crisis ....................................................... 11

5. Rea gDp rw raes ad aerae rices crde i ESCWA eber cries, 2008-2011 13

6. oi secr deee, 2008-2010 .............................................................................................. 13

7. oi exr reees i e gCC cries, 2008-2011 .................................................................. 16

8. Rea gDp er caia ad er caia gDp rw rae i ESCWA eber cries, 2002-2009 21

9. Rea gDp rw ad ifai raes ESCWA eber cries, 2007-2011 ........................... 21

10. mDE ad lDE exr desiais, 2009 .................................................................................... 22

11. grw i radi arers ESCWA eber cries, 2009 .................................................. 23

12. Cribi b mDEs rea gDp rw ................................................................................. 24

13. Rea reasr bi raes ad a bic deb/gDp, 2009 .............................................................. 25

14. Cae i riar sca deci, 2010 .......................................................................................... 25

15. Caia fws mDEs, 2007-2009.............................................................................................. 26

16. Reiace ifws mDEs, 2005-2009 .................................................................................... 27

17. DI ifws aris eeri reis, 2009 ............................................................................ 29

18. DI ifws b eeri rei as a sare a DI ifws, 2007-2009................................. 29

19. DI ifws ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 ................................................................. 32

20. DI ifws ad as a rai gDp i ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009 .............................. 33

21. Bd issace mDEs ad crss-brder as bewee ESCWA eber cries, 2004-2009 37

22. pbic deb ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2009.................................................................. 40

23. Cribi caia fws bic deb ESCWA eber cries .................................. 40

24. Crre acc baace ESCWA eber cries, 2007-2009 ............................................. 41

25. trade baace ad crre acc baace, gCC cries, 2005-2010 ..................................... 42

26. trade baace ad crre acc baace, mDEs, 2005-2010 ................................................... 43

27. nia eecie excae rae ad rea eecie excae rae, gCC cries, 2000-2010 .... 44

28. nia eecie excae rae ad rea eecie excae rae, mDEs, 2000-2010 .................. 45

29. Crre acc ad sca baace ESCWA eber cries, 2005-2010 ............................. 46

30. pic ieres raes, seeced ESCWA eber cries, 2008-2010 ........................................... 47

31. mear idicars, gCC cries, 2007-2010 ........................................................................ 48

32. mear idicars, mDEs, 2007-2010...................................................................................... 49

33. ws wrkers reiaces ...................................................................................................... 58

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34. uee rae i ESCWA eber cries, 2007-2009 .................................................... 60

35. Ccerai i exrs: e herda-hirsca Idex ad aacri ae added as a

erceae gDp ....................................................................................................................... 73

36. Irareia rade seeced rade-ieraed reis, 2005-2009 ............................................. 74

37. Irareia rade as a erceae a rade, 2009 ............................................................... 79

38. Es rei trade miier, 1980-1998 ............................................................................... 93

39. ta e ere rai i riar edcai i Weser Asia, 1999-2008 ............................... 101

40. prri eed ee ii bew uS$1.25 er da, 1998 ad 2008-2009 .................. 102

LIST OF BOxES

1. te seqece e acia crisis ad e aed ecic iac ............................................. 8

2. te ba acia crisis ad e baki sse ESCWA eber cries .......................... 36

3. Dbai sck ad e aseric ercei ............................................................................. 52

4. Rer e ssrsi sse Barai ............................................................................... 58

CONTENTS


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xi


ABBREVIATIONS

ASEAn Assciai Seas Asia nais

Am Arab mear d

BIS Bak r Ieraia Seees

CEDAW Cei e Eiiai A rs Discriiai aais We

CtC Cdi res tradi Cissi

CIS Cwea Ideede Saes

DESA Deare Ecic ad Scia Aairs

DS Dbai iacia Sr d

Dot Direci trade Saisics

ECB Erea Cera Bak

EIA Eer Irai Adiisrai

Egp Eia pdRB edera Resere Bard

DI rei direc iese

gAtA greaer Arab ree trade Area

gCC g Cerai Cci

gDp grss desic rdc

ISIC Ieraia Sadard Idsria Cassicai

IS Ieraia iacia Saisics

Ilo Ieraia labr oraizai/Ieraia labr oce

Im Ieraia mear d

lIBoR ld Ierbak oered Rae

lDCs leas deeed cries

lDEs less diersied ecies

lng liqeed ara as

mDEs mre diersied ecies

mDg miei Deee ga

mEnA midde Eas ad nr Arica

mERCoSuR C marke e S

nAtA nr Aerica ree trade Areee

nEER nia eecie excae rae

oECD oraisai r Ecic C-erai ad Deee

opEC oraizai e pere Exri Cries

QIZ Qaii Idsria Ze

RBoB Reraed bedsck r xe bediREER Rea eecie excae rae

REo Reia Ecic ok

SDR Secia Drawi Ris

WEo Wrd Ecic ok

WtI Wes texas Ierediae

tED Sread bewee ree- lIBoR ad ree- uS reasr bi ieres raes

ABBREVIATIONS


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I. The Global Financial Crisis: an Overview


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b ks i s s, sis

ii sss i

is i q

GDP growth rate (percentage) Consumer infation rate (percentage)

2008 2009 2010a/ 2011a/ 2008 2009 2010a/ 2011a/

ESCWA region 6.4 2.0 4.5 4.7 11.9 4.7 5.2 5.0

World 1.6 -2.0 3.6 3.1 4.7 1.4 2.5 2.5

Developed economies 0.1 -3.5 2.2 1.9 3.3 0.1 1.4 1.5

North America 0.0 -2.6 2.6 2.2 3.8 -0.2 1.4 1.4

Asia and Oceania -0.7 -4.2 2.8 1.5 1.9 -0.9 0.5 0.4

Europe 0.5 -4.1 1.6 -1.8 3.5 0.8 1.8 1.9

Economies in transition 5.1 -6.7 3.8 4.0 14.7 10.7 6.4 8.1

Developing economies 5.3 2.3 7.0 6.0 8.0 4.4 5.5 5.0

Africa 5.0 2.3 4.7 5.1 10.1 8.7 6.8 6.0

East and South Asia 6.1 4.9 8.3 7.1 7.2 3.0 5.0 4.5

Western Asiab/ 4.4 -1.0 5.5 4.7 10.2 4.2 5.1 4.6

Latin America and the Caribbean 4.0 -2.1 5.3 4.0 7.8 6.1 6.2 5.9

Growth and inflation rates, 2008-2011Table 1.

Sources:Figures for the ESCWA region are ESCWA staff calculations (see table 6 for details). Other figures are from United Nations Department of Economic andSocial Affairs (DESA), LINK Global Economic Outlook, October 2010 and World Economic Situation and Prospects Report for 2011.

a/ All GDP growth rate forecasts for 2010-2011 are from World Economic Situation and Prospects Report for 2011.

b/ This regional classification of Western Asia includes the neighbouring countries of the ESCWA region, namely Israel and Turkey and does not include Egyptand the Sudan.


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2008 is q 2009. n

sis b--s iss w

bs i i is i

isis. tis is isii

i s ii isis is i

1997 asi ii isis

ii iss s

w s. m, i is sii

is ci Ii

w bk .

t b ii isis i

si ii

sissi s: () w i

i , i ; (b)i isi s wi

30 ii jbs s i

isis; () i siii

i i ss

iis; () i i

is ss si s s. t

i is i s ii s

i i i iks (

is) i 2008 (b 1)

si w

w s i

i i - is. dsi ii i

is w i k i 2008,

s s i i

s w si si sis

b w si

is s . ai

Ii lb oizi (Ilo),

w ws 6.6

i 2009, isi 5.7

i 2007.1

a siii s w

is ii i

is, wi i

w iss i

i is (b 2). t

is s, w, i

i is, ji wi

i s i

sii w i ii xiss

wi si i . I is w

kw i s

i s

i. t i si

iis x

ss si sii s w is si iii

s iizs

b ks. m, b

ii isis w

iis wi s jb i

ss, i i

is.

t is n ai

i ssi i i q

2008 w si

is i 2.6

i 2009 (b 1). t si

i i,

f rs B (frB) i

sis is s (i 1-a)

w 1.25 i db 2008.

t frB s ij iqii b i

si ii sss i

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

World 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.8 6.6

Developed economies and

European Union

6.9 6.3 5.7 6.0 8.4

Central and Eastern Europe(non-EU) and Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS)

9.4 9.0 8.3 8.3 10.3

East Asia 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.3 4.4

South-East Asia and the Pacific 6.5 6.1 5.4 5.3 5.6

South Asia 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.1

Latin America and the Caribbean 8.0 7.4 7.0 7.0 8.2

Middle East 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.4

North Africa 11.5 10.4 10.1 10.0 10.5Sub-Saharan Africa 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.2

World unemployment rates,

2005-2009 (percentage)Table 2.

Sources: International Labour Organization (ILO), 2010, Global Employment Trends, January2010, table A2. Unemployment rate, world and regions, p. 46.* Estimated figures by ILO.

Recent severe

droughts in many

agrarian parts of the

world are still causin

serious concern abou

world food security

and its effects on

the poor


20/140


6

bks i sbiiz ii

ks s ii isis.

I wi s i

s, is i ui

Ss si si sis

k 2009 is . dsi

s isi i

b, is uS ts Bs

b sb (i 1-a). hw,

xi ii is

is wii

bw is w- -

ts Bs (i 1-a). t

uS s, w, sw sis

si s q 2009, s s

iii js s isis.

m, is sis k

ws i s si

x s i i

iiss uS

(i 2-a). hw,

s uS s i wk

is x b b.

t si s s

b bsb b ii s

s b s jsss. t s

i i i 2009 (bx 1). t

uS is s w 2.6

i 2010 2.2 i 2011

is x s 2008

i ii.2

t sii i

27 b is e

ui i 2008. ms e ui

is s xi ss

i iiis w, ii

j e is g,

f, I ui Ki

g Bii, w i s q

2009. t gdp e ui

ws si b 4.1

i 2009. t ii isis i

s s. t s

x ks, i ui

Ss, rssi asi is,

s js i

s e ui. t sq

ww jss ss is

isi i iiis

s b s i e

ui i ui Ss. f wi

w si , e ui

gs w i

is is sii ks, si

b si uS k,

si s w b w

sbii sq s

i e ui is is ssibii. fwi si

ss frB, Bk

e i sii b s

ssi ss. hw, si

isss e c Bk

(ecB) i ii xssi -

si ss, sis i

is s w i i

i ob 2008 m 2009

(i 1-B). t ecB s b i

i i w w

ii xis. t i is iss i 2009

ii is uS

(i 2-a). hw, wk i

iiss z

s is x sb w i

x . o is wk s,

27 is e ui ,

, j w b 1.6

-1.8 i 2010 2011 si.

t Js

ws i 2008,

wi i w i 2009 wi

i 5.6 gdp

w .3 t s x

Js xs, i

ui Ss, s js

ss , ii

iis is s. ai


21/140


, wk si

si sqs

i ii. t Bk

J w is s i ob

db 2008 (i 1-c). d

ii wk si ,

i ii xi

ws is, s is s

is Js g bs

(i 1-c).

dsi 2009 is sis

k g,

is si i s i w

si s .

t Js is

i is j i

s. hw, ii

Js is uS

(i 2-B) s x

i iiss. u i

js

s, i iiis s

si. t sii i

cis is

x sii xs

J. hw, ws s

b i 2010 2.7 .

Interest rates of major world currencies, 2008-2010Figure 1.

Sources:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, www.federalreserve.gov, for US dollar; Deutsche Bundesbank, www.bundesbank.de, for euro; Bankof Japan, www.boj.or.jp, for Japanese yen.

Notes: FF: Federal Fund Rate, TB: Treasury Bonds, JGB: Japanese Government Bonds.

Foreign exchange rates of major world currencies, 2008-2010Figure 2.

Sources: European Central Bank and Reuters.

2-B. Japanese yen/US Dollar2-A. US dollar/EURO 2-C. Chinese yuan/US dollar

1-B. EURO(Percentage per annum) 1-C. Japanese yen(Percentage per annum)1-A. US dollar(Percentage per annum)


22/140


8

The sequence of the financial crisis and the lagged economic impactBox 1.

t b ii isis s b k b

i s s s s j uS ii

isiis i Sb 2008. W ws is

sq s wi isis. fi B1-a

is w i si is s b S

ps cs-Si csi Ix 20 j uS

iis w i i ii xi b

cii ei Iis c B

i 2006-2009 i. t si i ix

i i J 2007, wi i

ii ix s i i J 2008. I s

k 18 s ww js si

is i iiis. Sbsq,

x 5 i J2008 i i i i m

2009 (i B1-B).

I , ii iss i b i

is i ss i jsi i si

b ss. I s ii isis, s

i si is i i s

ss, i i sbi

bws. S ii isiis i js

i b ss bs iiis i

si s ss siiz

ii s. as ii isiis iiz

uS iqii b s jss,

si iqii i i iis

s, sbsq i

i bsiss i, si i s i

w bsiss iiis. as s si

is i i w is, ji

i iis, ii ss i

s, qi js i b ss.

W ks i ws i ii iss

i s bsiss is

x qi b s js ss.

di isis sii, g is

ii s b s js i

iis, ii i bks, is

ss, wi s i si si

. a s i i is s k uS

is iis. hw,

b is i ss s is ,

s x, s sw i -isis s (i B1-a).

I is i xiss i i

bw siii ww js i

sss is s i i. di 1990

Js isis, i k 24 s s

ss bbb is is i i iiis.

tis i , s is w s i e

ui is i s b ii isis, w

is s b s. f eScWa i,

ww js i ss s, b i sk

ks s, iiz i s

q 2008. t i s

i i bw q 2009

s q 2010. dsi 2010 j

w i , is si i

eScWa b is ik b

w sii 2010 i ss.

Figure B1-B. Consumer pricesand unemployment rate

Sources: International Monetary Fund (IMF)and International Financial Statistics (IFS).

Source: Standard and Poors, the ConferenceBoard.

Figure B1-A. Housing pricesand economic activities


23/140


B. Regional implications of thecrisis

eis i sii, wi i

S-es e is

cw I Ss

(cIS), b i b b

ii isis. t gdp w s

i s is b 6.7

i 2009. t i i

is s w s s sik i

si i s wk si

si is iiis.

hw, b--s isis

s b is s , ii i ii sii

i. a i ss

b sii si x

ii sks s

is s s

ii i i si

i is. m,

i i is i s q

2009 s x b

s is. d i wk

si , wk w ss

x i wi s gdpw s 3.8 4 i 2010

2011 si.4

t ai is w

2.3 i 2009, i

s i i is. hw,

i s i sw s

sii, s b--s iss

s b bs. fis

iis w b ssi

si si is

wi i i x

iis. m, ii

is s s

s is i

i iss, i isis.

hw, sis

i w i; i

k s-si i i

i ii i ji

s is. gi x sb

i is, i ws s w 4.7 i 2010 5.1

i 2011.

t gdp w es

S asi is 4.9 i 2009.

t i i

s b qi s s s

is, K, msi

Si, i ssi

s i x . psii

w i i s b b ci

Ii. B is xis si si

is ks i . Wi s asi

is xi

i i i is

is uS , cis

s k is i is uS

si J 2008 (i 2-c). csq,

is i iiss is

j is, ii ci, J,

ui Ss , s

i si

x- . ts, es S asi w j w 8.3

i 2010 7.1 i 2011.

t is li ai

cibb xi 2.1

i i 2009. d s iks

wi uS , mxi

ws s b isis

sbsq i ssi.

m, wk i is

s i xs

i. hw, ik is

li ai ii iss, sis

b--s iiis s

b bs. as ws s i

i is,

i ss bi i isis

si is

is . e is sii


24/140

10


ks b i w

i ii, si is

. t i ws

x w b 5.3

i 2010 b 4 i 2011.

t b ii isis b

w ji sk k ixs

wwi. Sbsq, w gdp

w ss i

is b w w

gdp w 3.9

i 2007 -2.0 i 2009.

ts i s w, w,

x ik i i 2010 b3.6 , b wi x

i 3.1 i 2011 (b 1

i 3). Sbsq, isis i

eScWa5 b is,

i i i w s

is i i is

gdp w s i i

s eScWa i, s w s

is i i ss is

ss-b i ws. hw,

i i is,

i isis s b ii isii is (mdes), wi

w swi s 5.2

i 2009, k 6.0

i 2008, b wi siii

is i ss isii is

(ldes), k 6.6 i

2008 0.1 i 2009. o,

eScWa i s b s

b isis bs is s

i gcc is wi

w ii 5.4 i 2007

2.0 i 2009 (b 1)

sbsq si s i mdes.

hw, s w s w x

i i, 4.5 i

2010 4.7 i 2011 (i 3).

c i is , i ,

ii w ss

bsiss s i i

eScWa b is,

sii ii si s is. fi 4-a is i

Ws txs Ii (WtI)

i i s uS iqii

i s ted s.6 cs

s sbi s

ssi siiz ii

s i uS

iqii i as 2007. t i

iqii sii i i J

2009 w ted s bk

isi 50 bsis-i w.

di uS iqii sqzbw as 2007 J 2009,

i i xi xsi

ii, i k uS$140 i

J 2008 sik i b

2008 is bk uS$60-

80 s q 2009. I is

w kw ii si i

i s b i i

w iqii is s. as uS

iqii s ,

i is sbiiz -J

2007 . csq, xi i eScWa

i i b i

q 2008, i iii

wi x ss uS

iqii i is.

fi 4-B is

i w sk k

iizi, sss

ss i x s eScWa

b is. a s-

i i 2007, sk k

iizi isi w i

2008. t w i ii

sss, s xi b sk k

iizi, i

x s i i bw 2003

2005. dsi ww i

sk k, s

The global financial

crisis brought down

the majority ofstock market indexes

worldwide


25/140

1


sss i i si s

q 2008. fi 4-B iis

si J 2008 i 2009, i

i sss, b i sk

s ks, s b

siii s i i x

s. Sk k iizi ws

bs s is w

si i q 2008, i

bs i. csq,

b eScWa

b is i siii

uS$264 bii i 2008 uS$38

bii i 2009.

fi 4-c iis iw

i bk sis i

eScWa i, s b i

bks Bk Ii

Ss. a siii ii i

w bk sis i

gcc is ws bs i 2009. tis

s ss gcc is bi

b j ii iss

si si w s j

ii bws

js. m, i ixs ii i ks,

s gcc is b

si ks. dsi i

si i i w, gcc

is sw sis wkss bii b ii

isis. t mdes, w, xi

i iws i bk sis

si 2007. tis ii iw

i xi bs i

siis s mdes,

e, J lb.

ESCWA countries real GDPgrowth rates, 2003-2011(Annual percentage change)

Figure 3.

Sources: National sources unless otherwise stated. Figures for the ESCWA region are ESCWA

staff calculations (see table 6 for details). Other figures are from DESA, LINK Global EconomicOutlook, October 2009and from the IMF, IFS, World Economic Outlook (WEO) Reports.

a/ November 2010 estimations.

Other macroeconomic and financial implications of the crisisFigure 4.

Sources:4-A: Federal Reserve, British Bankers Association, US Energy Information Administration (EIA).4-B: Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) for stock market capitalization, ESCWA calculations for gross oil export revenue and the total current account.4-C: Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Note: US$/bbl: US$ per barrel of oil.

4-B. Oil export revenue,stock market capitalization growth

and the current account

4-C. Flows of bank deposits4-A. US$ liquidity and crude oilprices, 2006-2010


26/140

12


I w s i

2011, i i

eScWa i wi b x

sbsq i. hw,

si i uS iqii

ss si s q 2009

i i i sbii, i is bi

i isis eScWa

b is s .

tis is i : () i

i ii s

i s xss i; (b)

bii ssi wi ii

ii xs s eScWa

b is; () iii siis

s eScWa b is. t

is w s i, s s

i s i

is ii iss.

a s b s js wi

is i wi b k

i is iik si.

f i si, s

js is i si s

s bs i

sii s js b i.

C. Oil sector development

oi is s , i ,

ii gdp w ss

i eScWa b is. fi 5

iis w i is i

uS$94 i 2008 uS$61 i 2009,

gdp w ldes b 0.1

i 6.6 i 2008,

ii w i ldes is

ii i b i is s.

Wi i i

uS$80/b, ldes w x w

b 4.0 i 2010. t gdp

w s mdes b

sii ii i i is,

b i s ws

w s. ai oizi

p exi cis(opec),7 2008 w

i ws si 85.6 ii bs

, wi s i

ws 85.8 ii bs . I 2008,

i ws si

s b 0.3 ii bs

i 2007. gi wk

ss, opec k is

i q bks sii

s s q 2005. opec

i is q i ob

db 2008 b 4.2 iibs . ci wk

ss i i 2009 2010,

ii opec w b x

wi s i

ii 24.8 ii bs ,

wi ssibii i

s. d ii xsi i

xi i,

i i -opec is i

2009 2010 ws si s

s 2008 . ts, s

i 81.5 iibs i 2009, wi is 5

w 2008 .

c i is s i is

2008 isi i, b

i 2005 (i 6-a).

t i s i i

i, opec r Bsk, k

uS$140.73/b 3 J 2008, b

i i uS$35.58/b b

. pis

uS$60 uS$80/b i

s q 2009, w b

is w uS$90 b

2010. I is w w kw

ii si, i bi

i s ws bi 2008 i

s. di i i iks,

si s,


27/140

1


si i i, s

sbsi i i ii is.

t i ii is, s

b i- i

s bw WtI i i

bsk x

bi (rBoB) si i, s

i w b is i

k (i 6-B). t i ii

is i s

q 2009. fi 6-c iis

ii iss s

i i s i ks

i 2008 2009.

m, b siisi w 2008, b

s i is is i

is q 2009. hw,

isi s i i

i, s w s w

ii i, i i asi,

s si i

2009 i 2008. ts s

s b sbiizi

i is ibi

isi i ii. t

2011 opec r Bsk i

is j b i uS$54

uS$102/b wi i s uS$78/b (b 3).

t i i eScWa

b is 18.3 ii bs

i 2009, sii 9.8

s is

Oil sector development, 2008-2010Figure 6.

Sources:6-A: EIA and OPEC.6-B: ESCWA staff calculation based on EIA data.6-C: EIA and US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Note: RBOB: reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; OPEC Basket: OPEC Reference Basket.

6-B. WTI crude priceand RBOB gasoline price

6-C. Speculators netlong position and WTI

6-A. Oil prices: WTI and OPEC basket

Real GDP growth rates and averageprices of crude oil of ESCWA membercountries, 2008-2011

Figure 5.

Sources:Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for average crude oil price for2008. For real GDP growth rates, see table 6.

a/ Oil prices for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are ESCWA staff forecasts as of December 2010.


28/140

14


(b 4). tis is siii

i is i i

wi opec q s b opec

b is eScWa. t

i gcc is 14.3

ii bs i 2009; ws

si 2003. c i i b

mdes i e, Iq, S, Si

ab rbi y, s 3.99

ii bs i 2009. I 2010,

i i eScWa

b is ws j b

18.75 ii bs , wi

s 18.99 ii bs

i 2011. c i i gcc

is ws si 14.59 ii

bs i 2010 s

2011 is 14.70 ii bs

. r is i i s

is x i

i i mdes, si

4.1 ii bs i 2010

4.29 ii i 2011. a is

wk i i sii s

b bs i Si ab rbi

y. hw, b is i b i xi

i s, i

y, wi s x iqi

s (lng) i nb 2009.

Wi Q s sbis is s

s b lng x,

s s s s b i i

gcc is, s w s i e

S.

Minimum MaximumAnnualaverage

Forecast annual averagefor 2011

Lower Median Higher

2008 33.36 140.73 94.45

2009 38.14 78.00 61.06

2010 68.21 90.02 77.10

2011 54.0 78.0 102.0

Crude oil price estimationand forecast, 2008-2011

(OPEC Reference Basket: US$/barrel)

Table 3.

Sources: OPEC for 2008. Figures for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are ESCWA staff forecasts as ofDecember 2010.

Percentage change

Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a/ 2011b/ 2009/10 2010/11Bahrain 183 185 185 182 178 180 -2.2 1.1Kuwait 2 665 2 575 2 676 2 262 2 290 2 300 1.3 0.4Oman 687 653 669 713 755 770 6.0 2.0Qatar 803 845 843 733 790 800 7.8 1.3

Saudi Arabia 9 208 8 816 9 198 8 184 8 270 8 300 1.1 0.4

United Arab Emirates 2 569 2 529 2 572 2 242 2 310 2 350 3.1 1.7

GCC countries 16 115 15 603 16 143 14 315 14 593 14 700 1.9 0.7

Egypt 533 516 517 496 510 522 2.8 2.4

Iraq 1 957 2 035 2 281 2 336 2 480 2 580 6.2 4.0The Sudan 364 484 500 510 515 525 1.0 1.9Syrian Arab Republic 400 380 377 377 380 387 0.8 1.8

Yemen 357 313 286 272 277 282 2.0 1.8

MDEs 3 611 3 729 3 960 3 991 4 162 4 296 4.3 3.2

Total ESCWA region 19 726 19 331 20 103 18 306 18 755 18 996 2.5 1.3

Oil production in the ESCWA region, 2006-2011 (Thousands of barrels per day)Table 4.

Sources:OPEC except for the Sudan; Annual Statistical Abstract for the Sudan for 2006/07 and ESCWA staff estimation for subsequent years.

a/ ESCWA staff estimates based on official and other sources as of November 2010.

b/ ESCWA staff forecasts as of November 2010.


29/140

1


I 2009, ss i x s

eScWa b is s

uS$356.2 bii, si b 41.8

is (b 5).

rs w x b 33.9

uS$477 bii i 2010 wi

opec r Bsk i uS$77.10/

b, wi si s i

2011 uS$469.8 bii. f 2009, b

i i i s

i opec b is s

i . m, i s

s i siii i x

is i Kwi, Q, Si

abi ui ab eis(i 7). I 2010, x

w i b i i

s ws s 35

is i gcc i x

s uS$391.7 bii,

wi si s i 2011

uS$380.6 bii. d b

i i, i i

is ws i Iq o, b

wi w x s

w i i x s i 2010.

dsi 2008 i i

s, sbsq 2009 i

uS$60 uS$80/b s

i s i eScWa i

i . as s b

i b opec b

is, i Si abi,

uS$70 i i/b is

i. t b i is

i

w is i xi

i ii. m, is i ,

i s i s

b i i wi

s i s i is,

w xi ss siii.

Wi sb 2010 i i

s, i xs eScWa

i x si i

ii i i ss.

Percentage change

Oil exporting countries 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a/ 2011b/ 2009/10 2010/11Bahrain 9.2 10.8 13.8 8.9 11.7 12.1 31.5 4.3

Kuwait 53.2 59.0 80.7 46.3 57.8 56.7 24.9 -1.9

Oman 14.5 15.7 24.5 13.9 25.7 27.2 84.9 5.8

Qatarc/ 16.0 19.2 25.8 11.7 19.5 19.0 66.7 -2.6Saudi Arabia 188.2 205.3 281.0 163.1 215.0 205.0 31.9 -4.7United Arab Emirates 58.1 61.2 85.4 46.5 62.0 60.5 33.3 -2.4

GCC countries 339.2 371.1 511.1 290.3 391.7 380.6 34.9 -2.8

Egypt 10.5 11.1 14.4 10.1 11.5 12.0 14.4 4.3

Iraq 29.7 37.8 61.9 39.0 52.7 55.0 35.3 4.4

The Sudan 5.2 8.4 12.2 8.7 10.6 11.0 21.9 3.8Syrian Arab Republic 4.0 4.4 5.6 3.7 4.2 4.6 13.5 8.5Yemen 6.7 6.1 7.7 4.4 6.3 6.6 42.1 4.8

MDEs 56.2 67.9 101.8 65.8 85.3 89.2 29.6 4.5

Total ESCWA region 395.5 439.0 612.9 356.2 477.0 469.8 33.9 -1.5

Gross oil export revenues in the ESCWA region, 2006-2011 (US$ billion)Table 5.

Source:Balance-of-payments data of national sources.

a/ ESCWA estimates based on official and other sources as of November 2010.

b/ ESCWA forecasts as of November 2010.

c/ Qatar has been experiencing substantial increase in non-crude oil exports, specifically liquefied natural gas (LNG), which are not accounted for here.


30/140


16

The extraordinary

rise in crude oil

prices dampened the

risks of a potential

contagious effect

emanating from

US dollar liquidity

shortages

Oil export revenues in the GCCcountries, 2008-2011 (US$ million)

Figure 7.

Source:Balance-of-payments data of national sources.

a/ ESCWA estimates based on official and other sources as of November 2010.b/ ESCWA forecasts as of November 2010.

Bsiss s i i

eScWa i i 2008 2009,

i i gcc is, i

bs, si i iiis

b ii isis. tis sii

i si ws sisi, i

s i ii

x i i,

wi s

x s js b

ss i bks, bsiss

iis ss. t sii i

i sis b

i sbii i i ss.

as isss b, xi is

i i is isks

i is i

uS iqii ssbw 2008 2009. t s

sbii i ss wi

i isk

i x b

s js ss.


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32/140


33/140

Survey of economIc and SocIal developmentSIn the eScWa regIon 2009-2010 CHAPTER II

1

A. Introduction

as w is sw b

sii 2009 ssi,

i si eScWa

b is s si

ssiis is iis. t

2011 x bs i i ,

i uS$54 uS$102/b, isi ibi . m,

s ws-s sis

i,

, bki ii

ks, s b . B-

-s iss ssi

i i i

eScWa b is wi

iis, siii i

b ix x is.

t - s ss xs

xi wks gcc is mdes i iiz. t

iis i s

sss i si

is bki sss

b si s ii isis

b i -

s i x ss b

i bks isi i

ii ii sss.

W sii is s ws ib,

is iis i eScWa i

sss k i s

si i is i

b ssi. Wi 2009

gdp w eScWa

b is is 2 ,

wi 6.4 i 2008,

sii i b 4.4

, s 2010 ws 4.5

(b 6). t x

b x si

ii is

is sii ks is i

ibi .

hw, wsi isk is.

dsi 2010 sb i i

s, i is i i w uS$54/b i 2011 (b 3).

ri i bks s

w b iqii isis, b

w bsiss iis ss

si s iqii. a w

iqii ss ss is wi

, i , i bks i

b s jss. I ,

s is i eScWa i

si wk i s

i 2011 is ss

i is s b .

mwi, s-i k

i s i ii i

s 2008 11.9 , i

ii s b i si

2008 i s eScWa b is,

w iks is sis s

b i isks i

i 2009, wi si s i

2010 2011. t i i i

s ii s s b i

b i s;

w s bi isi

i 2008 s ii s. t

ii s- s

2007-2008 ii sss

iiz. t w w

jss s i, i

II. Recent Economic Trends andDevelopments in the ESCWA Regionand the Global Financial Crisis


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Survey of economIc and SocIal developmentSIn the eScWa regIon 2009-2010CHAPTER II

20

i bi s, i i

is s ws is ii.

tii, i s xi w

ii s s sii

i bk is isi

. t 2010 s ii

eScWa i is si

5.2 , wi 4.7 i

2009. t s 2011 is 5.0

(b 6).

B. Real GDP growth, inflation and export rates

Real GDP growth rate Consumer inflation rate

Country 2007 2008 2009a/ 2010b/ 2011c/ 2007 2008 2009 2010b/ 2011c/

Bahrain 8.4 6.3 3.1 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.5 2.8 2.2 1.9

Kuwait 4.5 5.5 -4.6 4.4 3.6 5.5 10.6 4.0 3.5 3.2

Oman 6.8 12.8 3.6 4.3 3.9 5.9 12.6 3.5 2.4 1.8

Qatar 26.8 25.4 8.6 13.4 14.0 13.8 15.2 -4.9 -1.6 1.0

Saudi Arabia 2.0 4.2 0.6 3.4 3.8 4.1 9.9 5.1 4.9 4.5

United Arab Emirates 6.2 7.4 -1.9 2.7 3.2 11.1 12.3 1.6 0.3 1.0

GCC countriesd/ 4.9 6.6 0.1 4.0 4.2 6.3 10.8 3.6 3.3 3.2

Egypt

e/

7.2 4.7 5.2 5.5 6.2 9.5 17.1 11.8 12.5 11.0Iraq 1.5 9.5 4.2 5.0 5.5 30.8 2.7 -2.8 2.5 4.0

Jordan 8.5 7.6 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.7 13.9 -0.7 4.0 4.2

Lebanon 7.5 9.3 8.5 6.9 5.6 6.7 10.0 1.2 3.1 2.5

Palestine 5.4 5.9 6.8 4.5 4.7 1.9 9.9 2.8 3.2 3.5

The Sudan 10.2 6.0 4.5 6.2 6.0 8.1 14.9 11.2 13.2 11.0

Syrian Arab Republic 5.7 4.3 5.9 6.2 6.0 4.5 15.2 2.8 4.3 4.0

Yemen 4.7 4.5 4.7 3.5 3.2 7.9 19.0 5.4 8.5 8.9

MDEsd/ 6.3 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 11.5 13.8 6.7 8.7 8.0

Total ESCWA regiond/ 5.4 6.4 2.0 4.5 4.7 8.2 11.9 4.7 5.2 5.0

Real GDP growth rate and consumer inflation rate, 2007-2011(Annual percentage change)

Table 6.

Source:National sources unless otherwise stated.

a/ Estimated figures for Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, the Sudan, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen as of November 30, 2010.

b/ November 2010 estimations.

c/ November 2010 forecasts.

d/ Figures for country groups are weighted averages, where weights for each year are based on GDP in 2000 constant prices.

e/ For GDP growth rate of Egypt, the figures are for the countrys fiscal year which starts in July and ends in June of the following year.


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2

t b ii isis b w

gdp w

w b 3.9 i 2007

-2.0 i 2009. hw, i

i is, i

isis s b ii mdes

eScWa i, wi w swi

s 5.2 i 2009,

k 6.0 i 2008, b

wi siii is i ldes,

k 6.6 i 2008 0.1

i 2009 (b 6 i 9-a). m,

s is

i gdp i i bw 2002

2008, uS$2,200 uS$6,000 ieScWa b is, i

gdp uS$5,500 i 2009 s s

b ii isis. t i

gdp w xi siii

i bw 2008 2009, si

12.4 i js (i 8).

Si 2008 ii ik 11.9

, s ii s b

i. t ii i

eScWa i ws 4.7 i 2009

b wi si is si5.2 i 2010. a mdes,

e S i i

wi x ii s

10 i 2009

2010, ws ldes, Si abi

Kwi i i

wi si ii s 5.1 4

i 2009 4.9 3.5

si i 2010 (b 6 i 9-B).

fi 9-B sws ii

ldes k i 2008 10.8

, isi si b 6.3

i 2007. S iss i si

si is, i

uS ii is ,

isi uS iqii siii

i s isi ii

i is w ibi

s. Sbsq, ws siii

bw gcc uS bsiss

s i 2007 i is

2008, wi b bi bs

x uS

iiss i

gcc wi si i

ibs, isi ii

sss. Si i ws s

w si uS ,

si ii s is, bi

wi iis i x

Real GDP per capita and per capitaGDP growth rate in ESCWA member

countries, 2002-2009

Figure 8.

Source:World Bank, Wold Development Indicators Database.

Real GDP growth and inflation ratesof ESCWA member countries,2007-2011

Figure 9.

Source: National sources of ESCWA member countries.

9-A. Real GDP growth rates(Percentage)

9-B. Consumer inflation rates(Percentage)


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22

s s s

is, ii si s i

iws ldes xbi

ii sss. o b-

b i ibs ws

xi Kwi is -si

x uS w

bsk is, sii

siii sbk i

sbis gcc i

i x

ii gcc i

2010. fi, i s s b

i isi ii

x i gcc is i b isis ws s b i

ii uS is ,

wi s i siii ii

gcc is is is

i j i s i asi.

fi 10 is sii 2009

x siis i gdp

eScWa b is. I is

wi j i s

mdes 27 b is

e ui w b ldes ui Ss (i 10-a), asi is i

i gcc (i 10-B). t

i mdes ii

w ss i ui Ss, e ui ldes bs i

sq w xs.

fi 11-a sws gdp

w ss mdes i 2009 w

i bs wk w

ss (-4.2 i e

ui -2.5 i ui Ss)

i i j i s,

e ui wi s b

20 mdes,

w b ui Ss 14 gcc i b 8 .

I is is sissi

s b is b

b b ii isis,

wi s b ii, s x,

b i is

iis. fi 11-B iis 2009

gdp w ss ldes w

i b wk w

ss i ui Ss

e ui, bs s gcc

s b wi asi, wi si iw ss 2009 (6.1 ),

MDE and LDE export destinations, 2009Figure 10.

Sources:IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics (DOT), WEO and Regional Economic Outlook (REO) Reports, and Euromonitor International.

10-B. LDEs, 2009 (Percentage of GDP)10-A. MDEs, 2009 (Percentage of GDP)


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2

wi s b 48

ldes. I is w

ii wii eScWa

i s is i

biiis b is

w s i e

ui, ui Ss asi. Wi

i ii ssi ks,

sissi b ii

isis eScWa i

b ii x.

Wk w ss w

xs mdes, si

e ui

ui Ss xs i.

e, Iq, lb Si ab

rbi, mdes s b

w e ui w ss.

gw s i ldes

i J, lb, Si

ab rbi y, ws

ui Ss s i i

Iq J (i 11-a). gcc

is i

mdes wi xi Iq. lw

x is ibii is

i xi ss

ii is s wi i

bi i i

x ss, wi sbsq

iiis s x

is, i b

b si. t i is qii i ldes, w i is

gcc is siii

b w s i i

ui Ss e ui,

b b s i

is wwi s s ci, Ii

J (i 11-B). I is, s,

sissi i

si j i, xsi ldes

b ii isis, b

ii, s i- s

si i s

wi gcc is b .

t si b ssi s

i uS iqii b s

s ii iws x

s, i is

bs sbsq

Growth in trading partners of ESCWA member countries, 2009 (Percentage)Figure 11.

Sources:IMF, DOT, WEO and REO Reports.

The ensuing globalrecession has not onldried up US dollarliquidity but has alsoreduced financialinflows and exportrevenues

11-B. LDEs11-A. MDEs


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24

i sbii s mdes.

ci mdes b i iqii

s si bii ii

isis, wi xb i

wk is s

i i sbiizi iis

i i i si. t

uS iqii is ibi

sbii ii

ks eScWa b is, s

ji ii is uS . f

mdes wi s ii ik wi

ii ks, i

x sks i

s is

ssibii, wi ws

i i i i x

ss, i ww ss

is s is. Wi

i bs, ii is s,

iis xs ss,

gdp w i 2010 2011

wi i i si wi is

x b is ib

gdp w mdes (i 12).

as s b, s

is xi ssi sss

sbsi is i .

dsi asi- w

, i si

is si i s b sisss b is

i w. hw, i

si is si i

bi s ss is

is b si isi i

is . t

isis is i, s

ui Ss ci wi

isk w w i i

. t b isis i is si

i is iis

x i xi sis xsi i .

C. Fiscal space

ci eScWa b is,

Bi, Kwi, o, Si

abi, Si ab rbi

ui ab eis

isis i wi bs is s

wi siii

i x ss (i 13).ts is w b i

i i iis

s isis i

si is. o is si, is

ws i i is is8

i sbiizs.9 f is,

Si abi i sis

k wi ws si is

g tw i

gdp. tis i sis

k wi is i uS$400

bii is is x bs

eScWa b

is, ii xs mdes. I

is s x ib sii i

sii wks is si

mdes. Wi Kwi i

is g si b uS$104

bii bw 2010 2014, e

Contribution by MDEsto real GDP growth (Percentage)

Figure 12.

Sources:IMF, IFS and ESCWA staff estimates.


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2

sis k egp30

bii i 2009 ii wi

iiis b ii

isis. hw, eScWa b

is, Iq, J, lb

S y wi ix x

is i i b

gdp is (160 i lb,

150 i Iq, 80 i

S, 70 i J, 60

i y) i is s

(10 i Iq, 6 i y,

4 i S 3 i

lb) w i wk sii

w b s isiswi q i/is i

is. as sq, si

x sks ss i

i is, i i

is Iq, J, S

y. Bs is siii

i b gdp i is

, lb i is s

. hw, lb s b

sss i bii ss

i iws, i is

i s, gcc issi s fdI si is isi

bi b iis.

fi 14-a iis 2010

i -i i is ii ws

x b i i J,

lb Si ab rbi,

ii ii is s. I ii,

i sbiizs w x

ib ss 1 gdp i

s is. t i is qi

i i ldes w 2010 -i

i is ii ws x b

sii i gcc is, ii

bs is s (i 14-B). I o,

Q Si abi is is

is si b 10 15

gdp, ws i sbiizs

x ib b 8 10

gdp. lw ibis

is is i sbiizs

gdp si i Bi,

Kwi ui ab eis

ii is s.

Real treasury bill rates and totalpublic debt/GDP, 2009 (Percentage)

Figure 13.

Source:IMF, IFS.

Note: TB: Treasury bill.

Change in primary fiscal deficit, 2010Figure 14.

Sources: IMF, IFS and ESCWA staff estimates based on national sources.

14-A. MDE fiscal stance, 2010 (Percentage of GDP)

14-B. LDE fiscal stance, 2010 (Percentage of GDP)


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26

D. Capital flows

ci ws eScWa b

is s i 2008

is i si 2001 ii

is x i

2011. I wk b ii

isis, s mdes s i

si s i i

e ui, s w s gccis. ci ws gcc

e ui is mdes

b i ii w

fdI, i ws xs si

e ui (i 15). lw

gdp w s i e ui

is w xs

mdes, e, Iq

Si ab rbi, wi

i i xs uS$130 bii

i 2008, uS$85 bii i 2009. t

ss eScWa

b is is si uS$38

bii i 2009, ii s

uS$264 bii i 2008 sii

i i 85 .

m, ss i 2009

i is i w

k i eScWa b is.

lw i s w uS

iqii i ldes, wi i sis i mdes ib

isi is s i

i i wi wks

is, i fdI iws. t

s i i i is s i

i ss, wi

ii i iws siki

x ks i gcc is. tis

is i i w x bs

i w iis, k

i isiii siii

i i x s w , si si,

b sii g

xis. hi is s

s w gdp w s,

x ii, sss i

ii iiss,

b iis, i

sizb x b i s

iss is i

b--s isis. Iiis

s b b ss

is i i s.

dsi i w

s bks

eScWa b is xsi

isi i bki s

i isis, i i s s

b iz i i

s gcc is s b

is i bk i bs

i i s b s

js ss. di isis,

ii ks is

w i eScWa b is i

, sis sii s is

i w x i iws w

s si i w,

bi b.

pi ws (ii ii ws

is) eScWa b is

Capital flows to MDEs, 2007-2009(US$ million)

Figure 15.

Sources:World Bank, World Development Indicators, IMF, IFS and DOT, United Nations Conferenceon Trade and Development (UNCTAD), WEO, various issues and ESCWA staff calculations.


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2

s si 2008. gcc is

b i i b ii isis

s i i i is

s, b i s b ii

x b i

is iis, ii is

sii ks, wi sbsi

ss bi i isis, i

i b i 2003 2008.

1. Workers remittances

lb ks i eScWa i

i i i

i is wwi. lii b s b

i i ii ii

i, ii sbsi ii

ws i wks is.

t x, ii b

s b mdes ldes.

I 1990s, i b i

gcc is six ii wks

b w is

gcc b ; s, 60

ii i mdes. tis s s

b i si i-1990s,wi s asi b s b

isi. t b mdes

i gcc is is x

i s iis sbsii is

i b bi

i b gcc is.

t w b mdes

gcc is s b bii b

xi ii is. f

gcc is, i is

ski ski w i is

is. f mdes, i is s ii

i s

s i. m, i

ws i b is

i sii b--s

i i

is i i is i

i, e, J lb.

ris

b 15 xs mdes.I 2007 b i

b ii isis, wks is

w qi b 6 gdp

i e, 23 i lb 21

i J 15

i mdes (i 16-B). t,

s i is,

si isis, wi

i gdp w

mdes, b si biiis

i b--s isis

J, lb, S y si i ix

x i uS .

Remittance inflows to MDEs, 2005-2009Figure 16.

Sources: World Bank: World Development Indicators and IMF.

16-A. Remittances, 2005-2009 (US$ billion)

Capital flows inthe form of labour

remittances havea direct positivebalance-of-paymentsimpact

16-B. Remittances as a ratio to GDP, 2005-2009 (Percentage)


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28

Remittances (US$ million) Remittances/GDP (percentage)

Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Egypt 5 017 5 330 7 656 9 476 7 150 5.6 5.0 5.9 5.8 3.8

Jordan 2 500 2 883 3 434 3 737 3 604 19.7 19.5 20.2 17.6 15.7

Lebanon 4 924 5 202 5 769 6 000 7 000 23.0 23.2 23.1 20.3 20.8

Palestine 598 598 598 598 598 14.9 .. .. 9.0 8.4

Syrian Arab Republic 823 795 824 850 828 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.6

Total MDEs 13 862 14 808 18 281 20 661 19 180 13.2 12.5 12.8 10.9 10.1

Workers remittances, 2005-2009Table 7.

Sources:World Bank: World Development Indicators and IMF.

rs is si

i s i x

ib i w i mdes.

t i b i x

is s i

iis i b si s,

i i si

si k.

I e, is, is

is uS$5 bii i 2005,

uS$9.4 bii i 2008. hw, is w

s b i i 2009, s s

ii isis, uS$7.1

bii. lb, w,

b; i si isis, is

is uS$4.9 bii i 2005,

uS$7 bii i 2009, w b J

w is s is

uS$2.5 bii i 2005, uS$3.6 bii i

2009. n siii i iw is psi Si ab

rbi ws is i

sii (b 7 i 16).

2. Foreign direct investment

W fdI ws xi siii

i i 2008 2009 s s

si b ii isis. ri

uS$84.3 bii i 2008, fdI iws

eScWa b is i

uS$70.4 bii i 2009 (b 8).

t s b fdI iws

eScWa i s i w i

i is wwi.

fi 17 iis s

fdI iws eScWa i s

i 6 i 2009. Wi

S, es S-es asi k

Region 2007 2008 2009

World 2 099 973 1 770 873 1 114 189

Developing countries 564 930 630 013 478 349

Africa 63 092 72 179 58 565

Latin America and the Caribbean 163 612 183 195 116 555

South, East and South-East Asia 258 830 282 440 233 050

South-East Europe and CIS 90 968 122 588 69 948

Total ESCWA 70 083 84 350 70 453

FDI inflows by emerging region,2007-2009 (US$ million)

Table 8.

Sources: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2010. Data for the ESCWA region are based on thefollowing sources: Bahrain: Central Bank of Bahrain, Statistical Bulletin (June 2010), Balanceof Payments available at: www.cbb.gov.bh; Egypt: Central Bank of Egypt, Balance of Payments2009 available at: www.cbe.org.eg; Jordan: Central Bank of Jordan, Annual Report 2009,Balance of Payments available at: www.cbj.gov.jo; Kuwait: Central Bank of Kuwait, QuarterlyStatistical Bulletin, Balance of Payments available at: www.cbk.gov.kw; Lebanon: Central Bankof Lebanon, Balance of Payments available at: www.bdl.gov.lb; Oman: Central Bank of Oman,Annual Report 2009 available at: www.cbo-oman.org; Palestine and Qatar: UNCTAD, WorldInvestment Report 2010; Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Forty-Sixth Annual Reportavailable at: www.sama.gov.sa; The Sudan: Central Bank of Sudan, Economic and FinancialStatistics Review available at: www.bankofsudan.org; The Syrian Arab Republic: Central Bankof Syria, Quarterly Bulletin (2009) available at: www.banquecentrale.gov.sy/index.html; TheUnited Arab Emirates: Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, Annual Report 2009availableat: www.centralbank.ae; Yemen: Central Bank of Yemen, Balance of Payments available at:www.centralbank.gov.ye/mbop.pdf and UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2009 and 2010.


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2

is i s fdI iws wi 21

s, w b li ai

cibb i wi 10

s S-es e cIS

wi 6 s. ai k s

wi 5 s.

fi 18 iis si

s fdI iws

i is s is

siii bw 2007 2009,

27 44 , s fdI

iws eScWa b is s

i is 3 i

2007 b 6 i 2009. Bsiss i- is, isis

s - w ss i

eScWa b is. fdI s

i i is . I bs

i b

s is i b

ii. fdI s

i is js si

is i i iss. hw,

ii sis i

sbis bs ik bw fdI

w, bb i s si bs. f x,

fdI ib i

gdp w, b s b i

b is i i. m,

w-i fdI is

bis; s w is b

bsb si is b

w . t d diss i

sss i iss k

i ss s s

i. t s is

ssib w, s i

x isiii w

ss.

c wi i k

is, iss eScWa

b is ii iss

ws qi s b isis, ii

b-i b is

e, lb, Si abi

ui ab eis. ci eScWa

b is, e

J ibiz is

i s, i

FDI inflows to various emergingregions, 2009 (Percentage)

Figure 17.

Source:UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2010.

43%

5%11%

21%

6%

6%

8%

FDI inflows by emerging region as ashare of total FDI inflows, 2007-2009(Percentage)

Figure 18.

Source:See table 8.


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30

wsi siis s w s

i w bis. t ibii

q w-iz isiis

is si ss,

ki js ib. Si fdI

ws eScWa b is

i sk ss,

ssii isbii k

si i eScWa b is.

fdI is s b i

ss

is. Bs siz s,

s i fdI ws eScWa b

is is i i

isii s b iiw iis i

ii isis.

Iws fdI mdes wiss

s i i 2009 i 2008,

w uS$24.18

uS$19.60 bii, sii 23

i (b 9). mdes

i i ii i ks

i x ii,s b i isi

isk si i is

ii iss i s is.

I s ii s i i

sb , mdes b i

i i w i, wi

s s i ss

si b s, wi

sii sss x s. ts

ii s jiz

ii s eScWa b

is wii i bw

is. Sii is i fdI iws

b bs i ldes w fdI

i i i 2009 i

2008, i uS$60.06 bii

uS$50.85 bii sii 18

i (b 9).

FDI inflows (US$ million) FDI/GDP (percentage)

Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Bahrain 1 049 2 915 1 756 1 794 257 7.8 18.4 9.5 8.5 1.3

Kuwait 234 122 116 (51) 145 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Oman 1 688 1 688 3 332 2 359 2 211 5.5 4.6 8.0 3.9 4.1

Qatar 1 298 3 500 4 700 4 107 8 722 3.1 6.2 6.6 4.1 10.4

Saudi Arabia 12 097 18 293 22 821 38 151 35 514 3.9 5.1 5.9 8.0 9.6

United Arab Emirates 10 900 12 806 14 187 13 700 4 003 8.4 7.8 6.8 5.2 1.7

GCC countries 27 266 39 324 46 912 60 060 50 852 4.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.9

Egypt 5 376 10 043 11 578 9 495 6 712 6.0 9.4 8.9 5.8 3.6

Iraq 515 383 972 1 856 1 070 1.5 0.9 0.9 2.1 1.6

Jordan 1 774 3 268 2 622 2 829 2 385 14.0 22.1 15.4 13.3 10.4

Lebanon 2 791 2 675 3 376 4 333 4 804 13.0 11.9 13.5 14.7 14.3Palestine 47 19 28 52 33 1.2 .. .. 0.8 0.5

The Sudan 2 305 3 541 2 436 2 601 3 034 8.3 9.7 5.2 4.5 5.5

Syrian Arab Republic 500 659 1 242 1 467 1 434 1.8 2.0 3.1 2.7 2.7

Yemen (302) 1 121 917 1 555 129 (2.0) 5.9 4.2 9.2 0.5

MDEs 13 006 21 709 23 171 24 188 19 601 5.6 7.8 6.9 5.6 4.4

Total ESCWA region 40 272 61 033 70 083 84 248 70 453 4.8 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.3

FDI inflows to ESCWA member countries, 2005-2009Table 9.

Source:UNCTAD, World Investment Report, various issues.

FDI can boosteconomic

development bytechnology transferand improvements in

labour productivity


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3

eScWa b is b

ii i w sbs wi

i fdI. t is iss

s is i

sib w i fdI iws,

ss i si s

b ii isis. lb,

Q S i

, w fdI iws is

uS$2.79 bii uS$1.29 bii

uS$2.30 bii si i 2005

uS$4.80 bii, uS$8.72 bii

uS$3.03 bii i 2009. hw,

i is i o

Si ab rbi ws sssiii isi uS$1.68

bii uS$0.50 bii i 2005


si i 2009.

t s is s

eScWa b is

i siii fdI w i

2008 ii isis, b

b s b i: Bi,

e, Iq, J, Si abi,

ui ab eis y. Ie, fdI iws k i 2007

uS$11.57 bii, b xi

siii i uS$6.71 bii i

2009. tis sis i i iw

fdI e i

sqs e

i b--s

isis e i si ii

ix x uS .

t 2002 xib x

ss e si xs,

si is i b

s i i

wi i x

i ibs. I ui

ab eis, fdI iws k i 2007

uS$14.18 bii, b xi

siii i uS$4.0 bii

i 2009. tis sis i i fdI

iws ui ab eis

i sqs

is i b--s isis,

siii

i x ss i

isis i 2003-2007 i b

i. t i si ii

ix x uS

b bi i s ii

s sis i sb i

b eScWa b is. B

sii xib x ss,

ui ab eis b b

s i i wi i x

i ibs.

I J Si abi, fdI

iws s uS$2.82 bii

uS$38.15 bii si i 2008, b

i sbsq uS$2.38 bii

uS$35.51 bii i 2009. J is

i i sii e

si-ii ii x

uS is ii is

s. I is ii i fdI iwsis, J w xi

b--s isis, i

is c Bk .

m sis fdI is b

is i y, w fdI iws

uS$1.55 bii i 2008,

i uS$0.129 bii i 2009.

tis i i is i i

sqs is si

i b--s

isis. y is eScWa b

s xi

i is si

si sis bs i

si ii ix x

uS . f

is , w, y

si xs, si is

i b s i


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32

i wi i

sqs b ii isis.

n j i fdI s s b

bs i psi.

fi 19 iis Si abi

s b 50

fdI iws eScWa b is

i

sii, w b ui

ab eis, e, Q lb

wi s 30, 15, 10

8 si. f w

wi w 10 s

fdI eScWa i, Bi, Iq, J, Kwi, o,

psi, S y w

si b fdI

si si w.

tb 9 ss i

ibi fdI gdp i

eScWa b is. Wi

xi J lb,

ii i fdI sks

gdp i ii w eScWa

b is i x 10 2005 2009

i. tis iis fdI

iws, si s i i

i w eScWa i,

b ib siii

w i eScWa

b is. I 2009, is i

i i 14.3 i

lb, 10.4 i Q

J, w 0.5 i

y, 1.3 i Bi, 3.6

i e, b s 0.1, 4.1, 9.6,

1.7, 1.6, 0.5 2.7, i Kwi,

o, Si abi, ui ab

eis, Iq, psi Si

ab rbi si.

e i eScWa b

is k s

FDI inflows to ESCWA membercountries, 2005-2009

Figure 19.

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report, various issues.

19-A. FDI inflows to LDEs (US$ million)

19-B. FDI inflows to MDEs (US$ million)


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3

ii s s s

i iis,

ii isis, wi is i ki,

is isi izi

i ii i

s wi b i

, s fdI iws b

ii . fis 20-a

B ii fdI iws b

sis b b ii

isis wi ii s si

2008 i b mdes ldes. t i

fdI gdp i eScWa b is

s s b ii si

2006, i bii wfdI iws w gdp w s.

eScWa b is , ,

x isi s is i s

b i fdI iws wi

s i i w. mss

b i, i ii q

i iis s

ii isis, i

i S-S i,

ii ii s,

wi s

wi sssi isii ss i i. m, s

is ii

iizi ss, wi

ss i i i

iw fdI b ,

i iizi sis

s. eScWa b is s

i ii iisi

i ii b,

s iis iw fdI.

t ii isbii s

i s s i

i si is

x i i bii

eScWa b is fdI.

3. Portfolio flows

t si i ws

eScWa b is is qi sii

fdI si. pi i

i ws i s

b i ii. Wi ss-b

i ws bw ii ks

gcc is is siii i

s, i iib wi

s mdes. Ii i

FDI inflows and as a ratio to GDP inESCWA member countries, 2005-2009

Figure 20.

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report, various issues.

20-A. FDI inflows (US$ billion)

20-B. FDI inflows as a ratio to GDP (Percentage)


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34

iss b i i

s eScWa b is

i iis i

si i wk

si ii k,

e J. I s s b

i ks eScWa

b is ii

b ss i i i

i ws. a i

i bki ss s k

i i isibi

i i sii i

iss i eScWa i. tb

10 iis i ws i iib bw uS$1

bii i mdes sii.

Bw 2008 2009 s s

ii isis, i ws

i i e J



si. t i ws

mdes s i uS$1.75

bii i 2008, uS$1.10 bii i

2009, sii 33 i.

tb 10 iis e ss

j is i iws,

w b J lb. e

s b 63.2

i iws mdes

2008-2009, w b J

lb wi s b

32.20 4.6 si.

Wi ssib xi e,

qi ks eScWa b

is i

1990s , si i s k

iizi i s s,

xibi isis

i ks i

sii ss ii .

r k iizi w s

w i e, J ,

ss x, i Kwi, o Q

2005-2007 i (b 11)i ii isis. tis ws

ssi iizi s i

i s is, xsi s

g sss i is

sib s

i ii, , ii

iqii i sk ks.

hw, sk k iizis

b e J i

siii bw 2007 2009 s

s b ii isis,

uS$134.90 bii uS$41.29 bii i2007, uS$86.26 bii uS$31.98

bii si i 2009. I ii,

i s b

ss i iss s

sk ks mdes s ib

siii w s

i sk k iizi.

Sk k iizis i ldes

s i siii bw

2007 2009 s s b

ii isis. I Bi i ws

uS$26.79 bii i 2007 uS$16.14

bii i 2009; i ui ab

eis i w w uS$250.85

bii i 2007 uS$131.79 bii i

2009, ws i Kwi, sk k

iizi w w uS$193.51

bii i 2007 uS$104.22 bii i

Portfolio inflowsCountry 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Egypt 132 152 679 1 118 691

Jordan 313 540 840 573 350

Lebanon 64 70 75 60 64

Total MDEs 508 762 1 594 1 751 1 105

Portfolio inflows to selectedMDEs, 2005-2009 (US$ million)

Table 10.

Source:IMF, IFS.

Note: The remaining MDEs have been excluded due to lack of data.

ESCWA membercountries have to

fight financial andadministrationcorruption and

eliminate bureaucracy,strong impedimentsto the inflow of FDI


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3

2009. Sk k iizi i Si

abi s s xi siiii i b

ii isis, si uS$522.72

bii i 2007 uS$318.78 bii i

2009, s s b

39 .

t si s b

ii isis eScWa b

is is s i sk

ks i i i

ii ii wi

sk b ks. gi i

s iks wi b sk b

ks, sk ks Bi,

Kwi ui ab eis w

s b b ii

isis. o, Q Si abi w

b isis

ii ks i is

i i s i

iss i iiii s i w. fii

iks Si sk k wi

b qi ks si isiii,

si s

is ii ii wi sk

ks ii eScWa b

is. e, J, Bi, o

ui ab eis, wi

xs e ui/ui Ss

bks, bs qi ks, w

is s. ts is

- sw i ss is,

i s bwi, sww i

i iws s i xs.

o eScWa b is,

Si abi Q, b

sii wi s s iss, wi

bi q i x

ss bs is s.

Market capitalization

Country 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 June

Bahrain 17 364 21 123 26 796 19 955 16 141 16 285

Kuwait 123 893 141 923 193 513 113 527 104 226 111 394

Oman 12 062 13 037 22 767 15 643 18 362 18 742

Qatar 87 143 60 913 95 518 76 657 87 932 103 812

Saudi Arabia 646 121 326 364 522 721 246 810 318 785 321 881

United Arab Emirates 244 406 158 561 250 857 127 105 131 798 119 295

GCC countries 1 130 989 721 921 1 112 173 599 697 677 244 691 409

Egypt 79 508 93 601 134 904 83 185 86 267 76 326Jordan 37 639 29 785 41 298 35 984 31 985 28 066

Lebanon 4 917 8 304 16 093 14 789 18 298 17 910

Palestine 3 157 2 712 2 404 2 105 3 200 3 408

The Sudan 3 242 4 624 4 931 4 931 3 033 --

MDEs 128 462 139 026 199 630 139 867 142 783 125 709

Total ESCWA region 1 259 451 860 947 1 311 803 739 564 820 027 817 118

Stock market capitalization in ESCWA member countries, 2005-2010(US$ million)

Table 11.

Source:AMF,Joint Arab Economic Report, various issues and Federation of Euro-Asian Stock Exchange.

The spillovereffects of the global

financial crisis onESCWA membercountries variedaccording to theirdegree of financialintegration with themore mature stockand bond markets


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