Supreme Flour World Wheat 2012
Transcript of Supreme Flour World Wheat 2012
WORLD WHEATSource: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: h;p://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
09/10 10/11 11/12
686 652 694
650 654 684
36 -2 10
0 1
Major Users of Wheat
China 115 million tons per annum
India 90 million tons per annum
South Africa
0 2
3,10 million tons per annum, including exports to ourAfrican neighbors- not really a factor
World wheat supply & demand
Date 10/11 11/12 12/13
Supply
Trade
Demand
Endingstocks
200 197 197
651 695 678
851 891 875
132 147 137
538 547 553
116 148 134
654 694 686
197 197 188
Exports/imports
Beginning stockProductionSupply total
Food & seedFeed & residualUse tool
0 3
World Ending Stocks
0 4
U.S. Situation
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Wheat Expectations
World wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are forecast to increase by 5,5% to 210 million tons. World wheat consumption is expected to increase by a massive 30 million tons (+4,6%) especially in the feed market competing directly with corn (+19 million tons). US old season corn prices are expected to remain firm due to US corn stocks being at a 15 year low. Black Sea wheat production has rebounded to 114,3 million tons from only 81,1 million tons in 2010/11. New season Ukraine wheat has been hit by frost and is expected to be 15% less. The freeze in Jan/Feb also had an impact on the German/Polish crop, the extent of the damage is uncertain until harvest. World wheat production is forecast to increase to a record 694 million tons in 2011/12 (+6,4%).
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World Estimates
WHEAT
ProductionTrade
Consumption
02.04 26.04
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 est12/13forecast
685 679 654 695 681 676
Carryover stocks
Year/ year change
Major exporters
ProductionTradeConsumption
Carryover stocks
Year/ year change
137 128 126 140 136 135645 652 655 684 683 680
173 200 198 210 208 206
+41 +27 -2 +12 -4
69 78 73 76 73 70
800 820 828 865 900 90084 86 93 94 100 100784 821 844 869 893 893
150 148 133 128 129 135
+16 -2 -15 -5 +7
MAIZE
0 7
Argentina Situation
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Black Sea Region Situation
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U.S. Ending Stocks
0 11
EU – Ending Stocks
0 10
Global Ending Stocks & Price
0 12
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
478
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1950
1500
3105
288
535
11/12
Supply & demand of wheat in South
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Wheat Summary
2011/12 world wheat crop estimated 6,4% higher than 2010/11 crop.
2011/12 world wheat consumption estimated 4,6% higher than 2010/11 crop. US wheat prices are now competitive and exports have increased even to Egypt. New season local wheat crop forecast to increase to 1,950 million tons up from 1,430 million tons in 2010/11. The local market therefore needs less imports around 1,50 million tons this season to balance demand. Local wheat prices for May is currently fairly priced between Argentine inland and coastal import parity prices.
The competition for acres in the US is intensifying, taking cognizance of the low US corn stock level, with some spring wheat acres expected to be planted to corn.
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R / US$ Exchange rate
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U.S. FOB PNW Prices
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Kansas May Future Prices (HRW Wheat)
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Local Prices / SAFEX May 2012 Wheat Prices
0 18
2950
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
R/ ton
2650
Thank you