Supporting the right LED products at the right time LED Market Introduction Workshop November, 2013 Fred Gordon- Energy Trust Dawn Dobrenz- Evergreen Consulting

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This Presentation Provides:

• Who am I • Who is Energy Trust? • Energy Trust approach to LED

introduction • Product rollout history • Success to date • Remainig holdback areas, concerns,

info needs. I

What is Energy Trust of Oregon? • Independent nonprofit organization • Efficiency and renewable program delivery for Investor Owned

utility electric customers in Oregon- roughly 70% of state electric load.

• Serves customers of Portland General Electric, Pacific Power, NW Natural and Cascade Natural Gas in Oregon & customers of NW Natural in Washington

• Helps keep energy costs as low as possible, creates jobs and builds a sustainable energy future

My role: Director of Planning and Evaluation •Includes aspects of emerging tech and strategic direction

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Energy Trust service territory

Our Approach to LEDs • LED is not the next CFL- A series of products for

specific market niches • Our goals:

• Advance usefulness, cost, and efficiency • Cost-effectiveness to utility system and society • Consumer value for their investment- today

• Energy Trust relies on testing and rating from Feds, manufacturers, NEEA.

• Often start support as custom incentives; move to prescriptive when we are confident

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Our Approach to LEDs We Incent LEDs with these features: • Reliable- tested, rated, good results • Total resource cost test B/C >1 soon, or within 150%

of the cost of incumbent technology. - Some products are “there” now. - Some need to come down 50% in cost and

increase lumens. - Some are poorly conceived or designed products

• Prefer availability from multiple manufacturers. • Clear, stable local supply chain- avoid “hit and run”

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Our Approach to LEDs • Approve niches (e.g., refrigerated warehouse

lighting) based on cost-effectiveness tests • Reference Lighting Facts, ENERGY STAR,

Designlights, and Lighting Design Lab lists. • Analyze against next best technology for the

niche- it has to save “more” to justify the cost. • Compare to incandescent lamp where customers

find fluorescent unacceptable. • Compare to fluorescent where it is commonplace.

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Rollout History

Phase I (2010) • Recessed downlight fixtures for home and business. Phase II (2011) • Screw in LEDs for commercial (quasi-

prescriptive)- most go to difficult access, display, other applications where LED has advantage over CFL.

• Freezer case lights

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Phase III (2012)

• Outdoor non-street lighting (custom). Efficient competition is mostly electronically ballasted metal halide or T5HO, almost as expensive, so LED can be cost-effective. • Canopies for gas stations • Parking lot lighting • Exterior wall mount

• Neon retirement (assume 10 year remaining life)

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Phase IV- late 2012/early 2013

• Marquee and Cabinet signs • Exterior walkway lights (new 8”) • Qualified 2x4 recessed troffers for retrofit where the

number of fixtures is reduced but light level not compromised- would require LED or expensive high quality T8 fixture.

• Extremely high bay. Directionality is an advantage. • Flood lighting. May be cost effective for some types. • Recessed can screw-in bulbs for homes. • Street lights

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Phase V- Now or Soon • Retail LED sales- top performers, selected

by lumens/watt and lumens/$. General use and some specialty bulbs.

• Prescriptive 2x4 and 2x2 troffers, troffer kits • Prescriptive:

• LED Outdoor Pole/Arm-mounted Area Luminaires,

• Outdoor Wall-mounted Area Luminaires, • Parking Garage Luminaires, • Fuel Pump Canopy, and • Architectural Flood/Spot Lighting

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Still Holding Back in Some Areas: • We do not promote most of the LED

bulbs • HID replacement is limited - competition

from T5HO- handling as custom • Direct install home lighting- not enough

hours. • New Homes- allowed but not much • LED tubes to replace fluorescent

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Why Limit Offers? • If the utility industry support for products that

cost too much and don’t provide adequate light/$, that discourages product development.

• Need to encourage improvement, then encourage high-performing products.

• Builders are cautious- looking for the right product mix and introduction opportunity

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Continued Cautions

• Dimmer compatibility remains a problem (hasn’t been as bad for the market as we feared).

• Match equipment to its field application • Metrics, equivalence are still problems. • Savings/fixture are lower than they were for CFLs,

HPT8 because of what we’ve already saved

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Results!

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RETAIL LED SALES- 2ND Quarter (from 2 chains)

LED Lamps: 7,275 LED Fixtures 16,589

Commercial and Industrial Projects

EB = Existing Buildings PE = Industrial MF = Multifamily

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2013 EB PE MF Project Count 891 189 66

Projects w/LED 442 49 35 Percent

LED 50% 26% 53%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

LEDReplacement

Lamp, 10-19W

LED Fixture LED StreetLight (Utility

Owned)

RecessedLED

Downlight

LEDReplacementLamp, LessThan 10W

2,614,833

2,411,408

1,303,301

806,363

471,501

Top 5 LED Technologies Used in 2013 Existing Buildings

kWh Saved

Business Type and LED Technology Existing Building

LED Street Light (Utility Owned)

LED Replacement Lamp, Less Than 10W

LED Replacement Lamp, 20W or More

LED Replacement Lamp, 10-19W

Recessed LED Downlight

LED Fixture

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

LED Fixture LED Lamp LED IntegralLamp, 10-

19W

New ExitSign, LED

CustomRecessed

LEDDownlight

927,367

94,720 68,428 29,171 17,344

Top 5 LED Technologies Used in 2013 Production Efficiency

kWh saved

Business Type and LED Technology Production Efficiency

New Exit Sign, LED

LED Replacement Lamp, LessThan 10W

LED Replacement Lamp, 10-19W

Recessed LED Downlight

LED Replacement Lamp, 20w

LED Fixture

LEDReplacementLamp, LessThan 10W

LEDReplacementLamp, 10-19W

New Exit Sign,LED

LED Fixture Custom LEDLamp

263,801

109,583 105,952

46,979 36,609

Top 5 LED Technologies Used in 2013 Multifamily

kWh Saved

ApartmentsAssisted

Living Condo

Business Type and LED Technology Multifamily

New Exit Sign, LED

LEDReplacement Lamp, LessThan 10W

LED Replacement Lamp, 10-19W

Recessed LED Downlight

Custom LED Lamp

LED Fixture

More Information Needs • Consumer Education • Drivers- compatibility, durability • Accelerated lifetime testing. • Focus on higher lifetimes as a potential advantage for LEDs • Single, searchable online resource merging lighting facts, ES, Designlights

• Getting better • DLC needs better search tool.

• Databased products are tested, link to tests & cut sheets.

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Yet More Info Needs • Keep up as new product types (form

factors) in Lighting Facts, or we need a new way to qualify product.

• Human factors testing. LM-79 and LM-80 do not assure that lighting appears similar to humans (Ecova/TopTen)

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Thank You Fred Gordon Director of Planning, Evaluation and Stuff Energy Trust of Oregon Fred.Gordon@Energytrust.org 503-445-7602

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